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Venezuela votes to annex part of Guyana

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    The simple answer to that is Maduro sends 100 men to decide the fate of those 10 Guyanans. The Guyanans have chosen the battle field.

    And that's the point. Both sides would be stretched to the breaking point just to send 100 men to a decisive battle. Venezuela and Guyana need 3000 engineers each to build the roads to the deciding action, not 3000 MPs to guard a non-existing LOC. The usual axiom goes. He who gets there firstest with the mostest wins, only the mostest in this case is measured in the 10s, 100 at the most.
    Again my point was not that any kind of conventional force was possible but rather that it was necessary. This is because (1) he needs enough of a force in place to secure the entirety of the desired length of coast. (Which as you noted he couldn't sustain even if he has it). And (2) unless he commits sufficient forces to do just that (control the coast) Guyana can simply drop forces into place behind his own in such a way as to frustrate any claim of 'ownership' by Maduro.

    Sure if he really wants to get into a giant game of tic tack toe along the shoreline with Guyana he can try but its a long coast and a couple of hundred men dropped randomly along it won't cut the mustard sovereignty wise. And of course when it all fell apart because the major powers finally intervened he'd be faced with the humiliating task of negotiating their return with the Guyanan government. So basically I'd argue he has no practical military options available, other than as you originally pointed out simply waving a flags on Guyana's side of the border for domestic consumption and then running back home before anyone intervenes.
    If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Monash View Post
      Again my point was not that any kind of conventional force was possible but rather that it was necessary. This is because (1) he needs enough of a force in place to secure the entirety of the desired length of coast. (Which as you noted he couldn't sustain even if he has it). And (2) unless he commits sufficient forces to do just that (control the coast) Guyana can simply drop forces into place behind his own in such a way as to frustrate any claim of 'ownership' by Maduro.
      You are ignoring a very serious defeat for the Guyanans in this scenario, the destruction of their 10 man force and at the very least a propaganda victory for Maduro. Maduro would also own that field of victory (case in point, the Burmese loss of two "battalions" of less than 50 men each). These midget powers simply do not have the numbers to fight a real conventional war and thus, they can ACT like these tiny victories amount to big scores, at least propaganda wise. Simply put, the Guyanans do not have the military strength to evict Maduro after such a victory in THIS scenario.
      Chimo

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
        You are ignoring a very serious defeat for the Guyanans in this scenario, the destruction of their 10 man force and at the very least a propaganda victory for Maduro. Maduro would also own that field of victory (case in point, the Burmese loss of two "battalions" of less than 50 men each). These midget powers simply do not have the numbers to fight a real conventional war and thus, they can ACT like these tiny victories amount to big scores, at least propaganda wise. Simply put, the Guyanans do not have the military strength to evict Maduro after such a victory in THIS scenario.
        If they can find them. They want to play cat and mouse with small teams of Guyanan soldiers in the coastal jungle? Let them. It will take manpower and time, neither of which Venezuela will have in abundance. Meanwhile all Guyana has to do is publicly acknowledge that they have deployed troops into the area and release regular bulletins from them. The idea is not to fight Chavez but rather simply frustrate his claims to uncontested possession. As I keep noting the only realistic chance they have of enforcing said claim would be to occupy the area in question with a force large enough for long enough that Venezuela's control could not be disputed - at which point we're back to the 'but they can't sustain such a large force' argument.
        Last edited by Monash; 23 Jan 24,, 21:36.
        If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Monash View Post
          If they can find them. They want to play cat and mouse with small teams of Guyanan soldiers in the coastal jungle? Let them. It will take manpower and time, neither of which Venezuela will have in abundance. Meanwhile all Guyana has to do is publicly acknowledge that they have deployed troops into the area and release regular bulletins from them. The idea is not to fight Chavez just frustrate his claim to uncontested possession. As I keep noting the only way to enforce that claim would be to attempt to occupy the area with a significant force, one large enough to demonstrate full control - at which point we're back to 'but they can't sustain a significant force'.
          They're Guyanans and Venezuelans! Not Australian SAS! They don't have the money for jungle survival, let alone jungle warfare. If you insert either party, they'll stay there until relieved, mainly because the relief force and supply trains won't find them if they moved. Hell, I have suspicions they would have a hard time finding them even if they don't move.
          Chimo

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
            They're Guyanans and Venezuelans! Not Australian SAS! They don't have the money for jungle survival, let alone jungle warfare. If you insert either party, they'll stay there until relieved, mainly because the relief force and supply trains won't find them if they moved. Hell, I have suspicions they would have a hard time finding them even if they don't move.
            True but they don't have to be SAS for the kind of mission I was describing. Then there's the fact that they regularly train with US, British and other western forces. Lastly I don't see how they have any choice but be to trained in jungle warfare. They literally live in a tropical rain forest environment! Sure Guyanans wouldn't make my list of top desert or arctic warfare specialists (looking at your Canada) but if they haven't learned how to conduct jungle reconnaissance ops and/or small scale ambushes and they don't know how to set up concealed positions in a tropical rain forest something is very, very wrong.
            Last edited by Monash; 12 Dec 23,, 13:32.
            If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Monash View Post
              True but they don't have to be SAS for the kind of mission I was describing. Then there's the fact that they regularly train with US, British and other western forces. Lastly I don't see how they have any choice but be to trained in jungle warfare. They literally live in a tropical rain forest environment! Sure Guyanans wouldn't make my list of top desert or arctic warfare specialists (looking at your Canada) but if they haven't learned how to conduct jungle reconnaissance ops and/or small scale ambushes and they don't know how to set up concealed positions in a tropical rain forest something is very, very wrong.
              You're assuming a professional force than simple militia.

              Chimo

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                You're assuming a professional force than simple militia.
                Well I read up on the their army and it does cross train regularly with western allies and as I said it has to operate in jungle environments by default. I would also assume (given the historical border dispute with Venezuela and ongoing narco issues in South America ) it must at least be used to conducting long range border patrols and recon in remote areas even if its not well trained in combined armed combat. (Lets face it its not really big enough to conduct a proper combined arms operation even if it wanted to.)
                Last edited by Monash; 12 Dec 23,, 22:27.
                If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Monash View Post
                  Well I read up on the their army and it does cross train regularly with western allies and as I said it has to operate in jungle environments by default. I would also assume (given the historical border dispute with Venezuela and ongoing narco issues in South America ) it must at least be used to conducting long range border patrols and recon in remote areas even if its not well trained in combined armed combat. (Lets face it its not really big enough to conduct a proper combined arms operation even if it wanted to.)
                  You've got to be careful when terms like training regularily with Western allies. It does not mean we can insert Guyanan troops into our orders of battle. It doesn't even come close to what we're doing for the Ukrainians. At best, we review what they should already have learned. At worst (looking at the Navy), it's a dog and pony show. Case in point, in the last ex, as a show of force, the Guyanans asked for a US air insert. The Guyanans don't have airborned forces. The only "cross training" here is to get the hell out of the way.

                  While the jungle is their home, it does not mean that they're capable of orienteering company size force into unknown jungle. How many times have you gotten lost driving in an unknown city? No doubt locals can help tremendously but it does mean Guyanans are not constantly being trained for jungle warfare.

                  But back to the point, any war between the two would be decided by 100s, not 1000s. Neither side can afford anything else.
                  Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 13 Dec 23,, 00:10.
                  Chimo

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                  • #24
                    Has anyone heard anything else about this?
                    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                    Mark Twain

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
                      Has anyone heard anything else about this?
                      What little I've seen in the news says the situation hasn't changed much. Last notable event was Britain announcing that it was sending an OPV to patrol Guyana's territorial waters. It's there now. To date Venezuela's response has been more posturing and chest thumping, apparently they 'stood up' several thousand troops to protect their territorial sovereignty when it arrived (whatever that means).

                      IMO those same troops will quietly just 'sit down' again as soon as Maduro thinks he can do it without losing face. Then the whole thing will just simmer on as before until the next time Maduro or his replacement feel like they need to wave the flag at home in order to boost their (waning) popularity. A least I hope that's what happens. I can't see even Maduro being so stupid as to actually start a war though.
                      Last edited by Monash; 31 Jan 24,, 04:10.
                      If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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                      • #26
                        The only diplomatic thing that I've heard was that both Canada and Australia told Venezuela to don't do it.
                        Chimo

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                          The only diplomatic thing that I've heard was that both Canada and Australia told Venezuela to don't do it.
                          Warnings from Australia and Canada. The diplomatic equivalent of being told off by your Aunty Zelda.
                          If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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                          • #28
                            Being ethnic Chinese, Aunty Zelda's flying slippers/flip flops have uncanny accuracy, better than cruise missiles.
                            Chimo

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                              Being ethnic Chinese, Aunty Zelda's flying slippers/flip flops have uncanny accuracy, better than cruise missiles.


                              Thanks guys

                              I was tracking all you posted. Just wondered if I missed anything else.
                              “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                              Mark Twain

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                              • #30
                                Apparently there are talks running in Brazil and everyone is promising to be good.

                                https://www.reuters.com/world/americ...al-2024-01-25/
                                sigpic

                                Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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