The Worldwide Response to Russia's War On Ukraine

[Amled]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...on-2023-04-30/
Well another hat has been thrown into the “peace negotiations” ring!
This time non less then Pope Francis, head of the Catholic Church!
He is reported to have discussed the matter with Victor Orban of Hungary during his recent trip to the country.
(One can be sure that he got enlightening and concise observations from Putin’s BFF in Europe!)
It will take divine intervention, to make black white, to justify an aggressor being condoned, and its theft being accepted!
That’s what Russia demands!
The Good Father has a tough task ahead!

[Monash]

He also had a 'chat' with the Head of the Russian Orthodox Church who actively supports Putin's invasion and who meets with Putin semi regularly. Could be a useful back channel for Putin i.e. a means of testing the waters with western authorities re potential options for a future peace deal while on face value its just contact between two religious leaders not political ones.

[TopHatter]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...on-2023-04-30/
Well another hat has been thrown into the “peace negotiations” ring!
This time non less then Pope Francis, head of the Catholic Church!
He is reported to have discussed the matter with Victor Orban of Hungary during his recent trip to the country.
(One can be sure that he got enlightening and concise observations from Putin’s BFF in Europe!)
It will take divine intervention, to make black white, to justify an aggressor being condoned, and its theft being accepted!
That’s what Russia demands!
The Good Father has a tough task ahead!

"The Pope? How many divisions has he got?"

[TopHatter]

The little-known group that’s saving Ukraine


RAMSTEIN AIR BASE, Germany — When U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin brings together the defense chiefs of more than 40 nations here in southwest Germany each month, the hours-long gathering typically ends the same way: Celeste Wallander, the Pentagon’s head of international security affairs, calls on each participant to read out what weapons their nation is ready to donate to Ukraine.

It’s a question — perhaps the question — that will help determine Ukraine’s future more than a year following Russia’s invasion.

And it's made the monthly closed-door grouping of leaders — known by the anodyne bureaucratic title of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group — an under-the-radar yet central force in equipping the Ukrainian military with everything from precision rockets to main battle tanks. It's also helped the nation create an ad hoc yet astonishingly modern military that would be capable of outgunning some long-standing NATO members.

But on the sidelines of the group's April 21 meeting in a cavernous, wood-paneled ballroom here at the American-run Ramstein Air Base, it was clear that staying united — which the group has succeeded at for more than a year — will be an increasing challenge.

A number of fissures have emerged recently in the group, particularly over whether and when to send Western fighter jets to Ukraine, and delays in certain weapons shipments — most pressingly, German and Spanish tanks. Meanwhile, the mass transfer of weaponry to Kyiv has left donor nations worried about their own stockpiles, and recent meetings have started to turn to the issue of NATO allies reequipping themselves as well as sustaining the weapons donated to Ukraine for the long haul.

“We have done a lot already in terms of the donations, but now the question is more on sustainability,” Esa Pulkkinen, the permanent secretary, or deputy, in Finland’s defense ministry, said as military leaders gathered at Ramstein last month.

“Besides supporting Ukraine, we also need to replenish our own stocks, right?” one European diplomat said.

Austin, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley and Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov sit at a head table draped in white tablecloths, flanked by American and Ukrainian flags. Crystal chandeliers hang over their heads. Aides sip coffee and mingle in hushed voices on the sidelines.

The meeting starts, as always, with a battlefield update from the Ukrainians. The other members sit at two narrow tables perpendicular to the leaders’ table, forming three sides of an open rectangle. Each country is represented by a miniature flag next to its member’s microphone.

Austin leads the discussion, making opening and closing comments, but typically spends more time listening to the presentations. Wallander emcees, moving each presenter along. During the latest meeting, members devoted one 90-minute block to discussing sustainment and industrial base challenges; the entire meeting can last more than six hours.

The impetus for the Ramstein gatherings came about without fanfare early on in the conflict. While readying a secret trip to wartime Ukraine just a month after the Russian invasion, the people attending Austin’s daily 6:30 a.m. staff meeting on the third floor of the Pentagon — called a “policy op sync” and modeled off the twice-daily meetings he chaired during the Afghanistan evacuation — realized a major problem was brewing.

Kyiv had survived Russia’s initial onslaught, yet it was becoming clear that the U.S. and other countries would need to overcome past misgivings about arming Ukraine and commit for the long haul. In those early days, no one was coordinating the equipment that countries were quickly beginning to pledge, risking a serious miscalculation for the Western nations aiding Ukraine.

“I did a lot of phone calls talking to countries, ‘can you send this,’ and I think it was at that point that the idea developed that the secretary had, ‘no, we need to bring the key contributors to Ukraine together so we can understand what the scope of this is,’” said Wallander in an interview at the Pentagon.

Austin named it the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which met on April 26, 2022, at Ramstein. It was the meeting — which was conceived and planned in about a week’s time — that kick-started the process of saving Ukraine.

Although disputes do break out between the participants, the sniping typically stays outside the room — a remarkable feat that members say is due to Austin’s steady leadership, calm presence and deep military knowledge. Austin’s attention to bilateral relations — including always giving countries public credit for their donations — has won him credibility, according to officials involved in the Ramstein meeting.

POLITICO spoke to 17 people directly involved in the discussions for this story, many of whom were granted anonymity to discuss the closed-door meetings.

Tensions brewing

The Ramstein meetings are typically scripted affairs, during which ministers read from prepared notes. But the orderly gatherings mask significant differences between the governments working to arm Ukraine. Eastern European countries such as Poland and Estonia have leaned forward in providing aid, while Germany and France often lag. The United States — specifically Austin — at times must straddle the two sides.

Meanwhile, Kyiv is constantly asking for more — and better — equipment. The ink was barely dry on the decision to send Abrams main battle tanks in January, for example, when Ukrainian officials renewed a push to receive F-16 fighter jets.

The fighter jet question is still a live issue, and the split between the various participants over whether to send Western warplanes was on display at the most recent Ramstein meeting. While Austin and other U.S. officials have been clear that they do not believe F-16s are necessary for the current fight, others say that the group is still debating the issue.

“There's an ongoing discussion about also other types of jets,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, speaking to reporters on the balcony while participants stretched their legs during a break in the meeting.

Still, others seemed sure that Western jets will be heading to Kyiv at some point.

“Western fighters will be a part of the Western military integration of the Ukraine armed forces, whether the time is now or perhaps later,” Pulkkinen said.

President Joe Biden has at times called on Austin to use the Ramstein meeting to appeal to his counterparts directly to do more to help Ukraine. In January, after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz refused to send Leopard tanks without the U.S. first sending its own Abrams tanks, the president turned to Austin to make one final appeal to his brand-new German counterpart, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, at that month’s gathering.

Biden had reason to hope Austin could clinch a deal. Throughout the conflict, the defense secretary has consistently managed to turn his relationships into concrete aid for Ukraine. Early in the war, Austin personally brokered a deal with Slovakia’s defense minister for the eastern European country to send one of its Russian-made S-300 air defense systems, in exchange for the U.S. repositioning one of its Patriot missile systems to Slovakia.

But this time, Austin could not break through Berlin’s hesitation. Ultimately, Biden ended up greenlighting the Abrams, paving the way for Germany to send the Leopards.

Some nations are still frustrated with the slow pace of Berlin’s donations.

Germany should be “sending more weapons, sending more ammunition, and giving more money to Ukraine, because they are the richest and the biggest country by far,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told POLITICO. He added that the Germans “were not as generous as they should have been” with Ukraine since the start of the war.

“Collectively we have to, and we can, do more. We all understand what is at stake,” Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told POLITICO at Ramstein. Referring to his own government, he said, “we have done a lot definitely.”

Despite differences between the various countries, participants said Austin’s consistency and attention to personal relationships keeps each gathering running smoothly and is the reason the members return to Ramstein time and again to discuss new ways to support Ukraine.

Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand recalled how Austin encouraged her to donate some of Canada’s 82 Leopard 2 tanks. Parting with those tanks was “no small thing,” she said. Her personal relationship with Austin — who she calls a “constant gentleman" — was crucial in Ottawa’s decision to ultimately send four tanks.

“This is why we have to gather. This is why we have to come together and that's to say why we have to help Ukraine,” Pevkur said.

But the tensions over the tank decision could foreshadow more angst in the months ahead as Ukraine continues to suck up billions in munitions. Replacing all of that takes time, planning and significant investments.

New challenges

The last several meetings of the Ukraine group have seen allies starting to think hard about how to find the money — and the industrial capacity — to replace the gear sent to battle the Russians.

“It still is the only effective format when it comes to coordination of deliveries but also of the needed materiel,” one senior European diplomat said. “Regardless [of] the differences in opinion.”

Plus, they need to wade through a thicket of parochial interests and find a way to do something even more difficult: jointly manufacture ammunition and other materiel as the war in Ukraine grinds on and individual production lines reach their breaking point.

Another divisive issue is how defense spending is split among allies. NATO’s annual report released in March showed that despite an entire year of pledging increased defense spending, only seven countries out of 30 have met the nine-year-old goal of spending 2 percent of their GDP on defense — two fewer countries than hit the mark in 2021.

Other trends have emerged at the Ramstein meetings that have also frustrated some participants. According to the two European diplomats, a handful of countries have consistently promised equipment that never seems to arrive but is recycled at each meeting with no timeline attached.

“They somehow never mention when that will happen, and then we have another Ramstein format happen and you are still claiming the same thing,” one of the officials said.

Despite these emerging fissures, sticking with Kyiv for the long haul has been a talking point for all NATO allies since the start of the war, and even with some delays in promised equipment, donations continue to flow over the border to Kyiv. And 14 months in, with new spring and summer offensives on the way, there has been no change in that rhetoric.

“We cannot let war fatigue in our societies and politics take hold,” Latvian Defense Minister Inara Murniece said while visiting Washington just before the latest Ramstein meeting. “We must grab this momentum and do everything possible to make the spring and summer Ukrainian offensive successful. We can't lose this moment.”
_______

[Albany Rifles]

Interesting analysis. As for the monthly meeting...I know all about as I have supply a slide or 2 on ammo stocks updated monthly that is briefed there.

I know folks don't want talk about raising taxes it might finally be time.

[TopHatter]

EU targets 1 million shells a year as Ukraine saps ammo


Members of the French army fire a Howitzer artillery system during a high intensity shooting exercice in Canjuers, southeastern France, on October 11, 2021

The EU will put forward a plan to boost its production capacity of artillery shells to one million a year, officials said Tuesday, as it scrambles to arm Ukraine and refill its own stocks.

After decades of underinvestment, Europe's defence industry is struggling to adapt to a surge in demand sparked by Russia's war on its pro-Western neighbour.

The plan from the European Commission -- to be unveiled Wednesday -- proposes using 500 million euros ($550 million) from the EU budget to bolster ammunition production in the bloc.

"When it comes to defence, our industry must now switch to war economy mode," said EU internal market commissioner Thierry Breton.

"I am confident that within 12 months we will be able to increase our production capacity to one million rounds per year in Europe."

The EU cash would go towards financing new production lines for howitzer shells and missiles, stepping up gunpowder output and refitting old ammunition.

Brussels says the money would provide around 50 percent of financing for selected projects and member states would have to come up with the other half of the cash.

That would take the overall value of the plan to 1 billion euros.

- 'Unprecedented' -

"The act we are proposing is unprecedented. It aims to directly support, with EU money, the ramp-up of our defence industry for Ukraine and for our own security," Breton said.

He said European industry "does not have the scale today to meet the security needs of Ukraine and our member states. But it has the potential to do so".

The proposal Wednesday is the final plank in the EU's ambitious plans to help give Kyiv the firepower it needs to overcome the Kremlin's forces.

Ukraine has been burning through thousands of shells a day and has complained that its troops have had to ration their usage due to shortages.

The EU has already pledged to spend 2 billion euros on providing Ukraine one million artillery shells over the next year by raiding stockpiles and placing joint orders.

Officials hope the 500-million-euro plan will convince industry to start spending on new facilities and give EU states the confidence to send more of their current stocks to Ukraine.

Over the coming years that would allow Europe to keep refilling its own shelves and maintain support for Ukraine.

Breton has been touring arms factories around the EU trying to gauge their capacity to bolster production.

Diplomats from some EU countries have expressed doubts over Europe's capabilities to produce enough ammunition, but officials in Brussels insist it can reach the target.
_______

[TopHatter]

Czech president: Ukraine could have our L-159 jets


Workers of Czech aircraft manufacturer Aero Vodochody inspect the subsonic L-159 combat aircraft standing in a hangar in the town of Odolena Voda near Prague

PRAGUE (Reuters) - The Czech Republic could give Ukraine some of its L-159 fighter jets to support its planned counter-offensive, Czech President Petr Pavel was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

Prague has been among Kyiv's staunchest allies from the outbreak of Russia's aggression last February, providing material from ammunition to tanks worth billions of dollars.

The L-159 is a Czech-made, light subsonic combat aircraft designed for air support of ground forces, reconnaissance and partly also for air combat missions.

"It is worth considering whether we could provide Ukraine with our L-159 aircraft," Pavel told Czech public radio in an interview.

"As direct combat support aircraft, (the planes) could also help Ukraine significantly in the counteroffensive," he said.

Any decision on military shipments falls to the government.

Ukraine was also in the process of receiving two units of the Kub air-defence system from the Czechs, Pavel said.

Ukraine, which says its forces are waiting for better weather before launching the long-promised counteroffensive, is pleading with allies to overcome hesitation about supplying modern fighter jets.

Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte said last week that talks on a potential donation of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine were progressing, but no decision has been made.

Slovakia and Poland provided Ukraine with Soviet-era MIG-29 fighter jets in March.
_________

[Albany Rifles]

Well, well, well.

To paraphrase one of my favorite Twitter follows, Vladimir Puttin:

Day 444 of my 3 day war.

I remain a military genius


https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/10/asia/...hnk/index.html


Exclusive: Japan is in talks to open a NATO office as Ukraine war makes world less stable, foreign minister says

Japan is in talks to open a NATO liaison office, the first of its kind in Asia, the country’s foreign minister told CNN in an exclusive interview on Wednesday, saying Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made the world less stable.

“We are already in discussions, but no details (have been) finalized yet,” Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Wednesday, speaking a week ahead of the Group of Seven summit, hosted this year by Japan in Hiroshima.

Hayashi specifically cited Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year as an event with repercussions far beyond Europe’s borders that forced Japan to rethink regional security.

“The reason why we are discussing about this is that since the aggression by Russia to Ukraine, the world (has) become more unstable,” he said.


“Something happening in East Europe is not only confined to the issue in East Europe, and that affects directly the situation here in the Pacific. That’s why a cooperation between us in East Asia and NATO (is) becoming … increasingly important.”

He added that Japan is not a treaty member of NATO, which stands for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization – but that the move sends a message the bloc’s Asia Pacific partners are “engaging in a very steady manner” with NATO.

The opening of a NATO liaison office in Japan would mark a significant development for the Western alliance amid deepening geopolitical fault lines, and is likely to attract criticism from the Chinese government, which has previously warned against such a move.

The Nikkei Asia first reported plans to open the office in Japan last Wednesday, citing unnamed Japanese and NATO officials.

NATO has similar liaison offices in other places including Ukraine and Vienna. The liaison office in Japan will enable discussions with NATO’s security partners, such as South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, on geopolitical challenges, emerging and disruptive technologies, and cyber threats, Nikkei reported last week.

In a statement to CNN last week, a NATO spokesperson said: “As to plans to open a liaison office in Japan, we won’t go into the details of ongoing deliberations among NATO allies.” She added that NATO and Japan “have a long-standing cooperation.”


Complex security situation


Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves through Europe and drove non-aligned Finland and Sweden to abandon their neutrality and seek protection within NATO, with Finland formally joining the bloc last month.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been invited to participate in the G7 summit next week, said Hayashi, alongside the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union. Zelensky is expected to dial in remotely.

“Since we are hosting it here in Japan, so we have to talk about Asia Pacific, Indo-Pacific issues too,” he said, adding that the summit location in Hiroshima — where atomic bombs were dropped in 1945 — was partly chosen because “we would like to talk about nonproliferation and also disarmament,” topics that have come to the fore during the war in Ukraine.

The war has also seen countries like Japan and South Korea draw closer to their Western partners, while presenting a united front against perceived threats closer to home.





Hayashi highlighted what he described as Japan’s “severe and complex” regional security environment, noting that in addition to increased Russian aggression, Tokyo is also contending with a nuclear-armed North Korea and a rising China.

China has been growing its naval and air forces in areas near Japan while claiming the Senkaku Islands, an uninhabited Japanese-controlled chain in the East China Sea, as its sovereign territory. In the face of growing friction, Japan recently announced plans for its biggest military buildup since World War II.

Tensions between Japan and Russia have also been increasing in recent months, fueled in part by Russian military drills in the waters between the two nations, and joint Chinese-Russian naval patrols in the western Pacific close to Japan.

In April, Russian warships conducted anti-submarine exercises in the Sea of Japan, also known as the East Sea – and in March, Russian missile boats fired cruise missiles at a mock target in the same waters. And after Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida made a surprise visit to Ukraine in March, two Russian strategic bombers, capable of carrying nuclear weapons, flew over waters off the Japanese coast for more than seven hours, Reuters reported.

Despite the growing regional tensions, Hayashi said the potential opening of the office was not aimed at specific countries. “This is not intended…to be sending a message,” said Hayashi.

He added that Japan and other countries still need to cooperate with China on larger issues such as climate change and the Covid-19 pandemic, and that Tokyo wanted a “constructive and stable relationship” with Beijing.



Members of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force disembark from a V-22 Osprey aircraft during a live fire exercise in Gotemba, Japan, on May 28, 2022.


China reaction


China has previously warned against NATO expanding its reach into Asia and responded angrily to previous reports on the possible Japan office.

“Asia is a promising land for cooperation and a hotbed for peaceful development. It should not be a platform for those who seek geopolitical fights,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning in a briefing last week. “NATO’s eastward push and interference in Asia Pacific matters will definitely undermine regional peace and stability.”

Though Beijing has claimed impartiality in the Ukraine war and no advance knowledge of Russia’s intent, it has refused to condemn Moscow’s actions. Instead, it has parroted Kremlin lines blaming NATO for provoking the conflict – further fracturing relationships with both Europe and the US.

And in March, senior Chinese Foreign Ministry officials and influential Communist Party publications accused the United States of seeking to build a NATO-like bloc in the Indo-Pacific, with one official warning of “unimaginable” consequences.

On Wednesday, Hayashi played down concerns that opening a Tokyo NATO office could further inflame tensions, saying: “I don’t feel that’s the case.”

The country has had a pacifist constitution since World War II – which he argued is reflected in this move.

“We are not offending anyone, we’re defending ourselves from any kind of interference and concerns, and in some cases threats,” he said.

[Monash]

Hmm... if Korea followed suit you might see a line forming Australia, NZ, the Philippines, Singapore??? Most wouldn't add much in terms of military capabilities in the event of a war but the opportunities to cross train and purchase redundant gear from other members would go a long way to making what they do have more effective.

And of course China would go ape shit.

[Monash]

Czech president: Ukraine could have our L-159 jets


Workers of Czech aircraft manufacturer Aero Vodochody inspect the subsonic L-159 combat aircraft standing in a hangar in the town of Odolena Voda near Prague

PRAGUE (Reuters) - The Czech Republic could give Ukraine some of its L-159 fighter jets to support its planned counter-offensive, Czech President Petr Pavel was quoted as saying on Wednesday.

Prague has been among Kyiv's staunchest allies from the outbreak of Russia's aggression last February, providing material from ammunition to tanks worth billions of dollars.

The L-159 is a Czech-made, light subsonic combat aircraft designed for air support of ground forces, reconnaissance and partly also for air combat missions....
_________

Makes me wonder if NATO and its allies could assist Ukraine by purchasing and arming some Embeaer Super Tucanos for low level ground attack missions. Less expensive, longer ranged and potentially less vulnerable to SHORADs than attack helicopters would be. Apparently Bolsonaro blocked a previous attempt by Ukraine to acquire some and he's no longer a roadblock.

[TopHatter]

Makes me wonder if NATO and its allies could assist Ukraine by purchasing and arming some Embeaer Super Tucanos for low level ground attack missions. Less expensive, longer ranged and potentially less vulnerable to SHORADs than attack helicopters would be. Apparently Bolsonaro blocked a previous attempt by Ukraine to acquire some and he's no longer a roadblock.

S2's very recent post exposes a bias on the part of Western and aligned nations: We're used to having an umbrella of 4th (and now 5th) generation super fighters overhead and thus that's how we're training the Ukrainians. I bet the Ukrainians could find good use for "lower tech" mud fighters like the Super Tuc's and ALCA's. They're not going to challenge Sukhois and double-digit SAM systems of course but I bet you're right: Better than attack helicopters for that down in the weeds stuff.

[Bigfella]

Makes me wonder if NATO and its allies could assist Ukraine by purchasing and arming some Embeaer Super Tucanos for low level ground attack missions. Less expensive, longer ranged and potentially less vulnerable to SHORADs than attack helicopters would be. Apparently Bolsonaro blocked a previous attempt by Ukraine to acquire some and he's no longer a roadblock.

I hope this happens, but I'm not yet convinced Lula will be any more amenable to NATO than Bolsonaro was. He's no great fan of the West, and I get the impression this might actually be getting worse. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[Monash]

I hope this happens, but I'm not yet convinced Lula will be any more amenable to NATO than Bolsonaro was. He's no great fan of the West, and I get the impression this might actually be getting worse. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Possibly, but there should be a couple of other alternate, low cost platforms similar to Tucano's out there. Point being Ukraine could really use a cheap ground attack platform to bolster it's chances of success in this war. Such is the state of the 'modern' Russian army that it is relying heavily on fixed/static defenses (trenches, bunkers, tank obstacles etc) in order to defeat the upcoming Ukrainian offensive. So anything Ukraine can bring to the party that would help them breach those defenses should be welcomed.

[Ironduke]

I hope this happens, but I'm not yet convinced Lula will be any more amenable to NATO than Bolsonaro was. He's no great fan of the West, and I get the impression this might actually be getting worse. Hopefully I'm wrong.

I had precisely that thought when I'd read the bit about supplying Embraer planes. Methinks Lula is at heart a Marxist with anti-American tendencies. Weeks ago he was saying Zelensky shared blame for the war and could have done more to avoid it.

[Ironduke]

Possibly, but there should be a couple of other alternate, low cost platforms similar to Tucano's out there. Point being Ukraine could really use a cheap ground attack platform to bolster it's chances of success in this war.

There's the T-6 Texan, TAI Hurkus, and KT/KA-1