The Worldwide Response to Russia's War On Ukraine

[TopHatter]

Norway says it will help train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 jets


Norway's Air Force F-16 fighter patrols over the Baltics during a NATO air policing mission from Zokniai air base near Siauliai

OSLO (Reuters) - Norway will support training programmes for Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets, Norwegian Defence Minister Bjoern Arild Gram said on Wednesday.

U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday endorsed training programmes for Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy assured Biden that the aircraft would not be used to go into Russian territory.

"The government backs this initiative and is considering how Norway can contribute together with allies and partners," Gram said.

The Norwegian government has not decided whether Norway will give any of its F-16 jets to Ukraine, the minister separately told public broadcaster NRK.

Russia, whose forces invaded Ukraine 15 months ago, has said any transfer of the U.S.-made F-16s to Ukraine would be pointless and raise the question of NATO's role in the war.
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[Amled]

The Dutch and the Danes are also onboard!
Spreading the training over multi-countries must cut down tremendously on training time!
As long as they have the same version of the F-16 's that the Ukrainians are set to receive.
Seems like an ideal way to train a maximum number of pilots in the shortest amount of time.

[Albany Rifles]

The Danes operate F-16A Block 20 and the Dutch F-16M Block 20. They are very similar and should not be a major stumbling block. These aircraft are available because both air forces are converting to F-35s.

[Gun Grape]

The Danes operate F-16A Block 20 and the Dutch F-16M Block 20. They are very similar and should not be a major stumbling block. These aircraft are available because both air forces are converting to F-35s.

But they are just now receiving their F-35s. And the first ones(around 24 for each country) get stationed at Luke AFB for pilot training. Probably 2 or more years before they become operational.

Draken and Top Aces have been buying serviceable F-16s the last few years. Will the Dutch and Norway renege on those contracts?

I still can't figure out why they want F-16s. Only the Block 70s have AESA radar, and they are not getting those. The regular F-16s and AMRAAMs are still outranged by the MIG-35 in both detection and shootdown range. The only old school plane that would work would be F-15s. Or if they could get the Japanese to part with a few F-2s

The Russian AA defenses will keep them from conducting effective CAS and Interdiction missions.

In the Gunnys world, someone would have met with the Ukraine leaders and explained a few things. Leopard/Abrams/Bradleys/MLRS/HIMARs and F-16s are not designed to fight with Warsaw pact tactics. They are not the magic key that will allow you to crush your enemy. They are designed for a different type of fight and clogs in a big system that the UA don't have

Ukraine would be better served scrounging Asia and Africa to buy up/buy back MIG-29s.

[TopHatter]

I still can't figure out why they want F-16s.

I think it's twofold:

In the short term, in general, it's just easier for a dozen+ different countries to support the F-16 than it is to support the old Warsaw Pact stuff.
More specifically, the F-16 is immediately compatible with most (all?) NATO ordnance. No more jury-rigging HARMS onto MiGs, for example.

The other is playing the long game: The sooner Ukraine ditches the old Warsaw Pact gear, the better. 6 months ago would've been better but right now is the next best thing.
Sure they'll be getting the old Block 20 in the very near future. But a couple years from now, maybe they'll get some Block 50/52 or better. So, they're laying the foundation for that right now.

[Albany Rifles]

I think it's twofold:

In the short term, in general, it's just easier for a dozen+ different countries to support the F-16 than it is to support the old Warsaw Pact stuff.
More specifically, the F-16 is immediately compatible with most (all?) NATO ordnance. No more jury-rigging HARMS onto MiGs, for example.

The other is playing the long game: The sooner Ukraine ditches the old Warsaw Pact gear, the better. 6 months ago would've been better but right now is the next best thing.
Sure they'll be getting the old Block 20 in the very near future. But a couple years from now, maybe they'll get some Block 50/52 or better. So, they're laying the foundation for that right now.

To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld "You fight a war with the weapons you can get and not the weapons that will be overmatches."

The F-16s are at least something. And I think Joe is right about the long term objectives.

[Gun Grape]

I get the long term look.

My point being that the F-16 doesn't give them any advantage over MIG-29s. In fact I would say that it degrades their capabilities. They already have a support system for the MIGs and the pilots have muscle memory flying them.

And spare parts for 16A's are hard to come by.

Another question is will we give them 16s with all the NATO upgrades? Notice that when Poland transferred MIG-29s, It was all the ones that didn't have NATO upgrades (Link-16, comms...)
They retained the NATO standard MIGs

I always heard it as "You fight a war with what you have, not what you want"

[TopHatter]

I get the long term look.

My point being that the F-16 doesn't give them any advantage over MIG-29s. In fact I would say that it degrades their capabilities. They already have a support system for the MIGs and the pilots have muscle memory flying them.

No, they really don't, not in terms of battlefield advantage. For example, I believe the Fulcrum is slightly longer ranged than the F-16.

I think it's more about sustainability and compatibility. There's a finite supply of accessible MiG-29s and their associated ordnance out there, but veritable mountains of F-16s.

There's obviously an existing support system for the MiGs but there's also a boatload of support that can be made available for the F-16 by NATO.

[Monash]

I shouldn't have to mention it but Perun is up again gents with a topic that feeds right into the discussion above.

[Albany Rifles]

I always heard it as "You fight a war with what you have, not what you want"

Which is why I said it was a paraphrase.

And I get what you are saying about the issues with the F-16...I am hardly trying to hand wave them away. But the real question is how many MiG 29s are available? What countries around the globe do not support Ukraine...which is most of the Global South. I don't know of anymore sources which would be willing to part with theirs.

[TopHatter]

What F-16s Will (and Won’t) Do for Ukraine
The apparent decision to give Ukraine American-made fighter jets is less important for the coming counteroffensive than for Ukraine’s long-term sovereignty and self-defense.


A U.S. Air Force F-16 aircraft flies near the Rionegro Airport during military drills

AFTER MONTHS OF PUBLICLY LOBBYING to acquire U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, it appears that Ukraine may receive them later this year. Several NATO countries that operate F-16s, including Poland, have indicated that they are willing to train Ukrainian pilots, and on May 19, President Joe Biden told the G-7 meeting, at which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was a guest, that the United States would support training Ukrainian pilots to fly the aircraft. Reports based on leaked documents revealed that the U.S. Air Force estimated that such training would take only four months.

However, there remains a long road ahead before the F-16s would see service in Ukraine—and it is an open question how much they would affect the outcome of the war.

First there is the question of where the aircraft would come from. The most likely candidates appear to be aircraft recently retired by the Netherlands, Denmark, and Norway. These are F-16AM/BM aircraft that were acquired in the 1980s and upgraded in the 1990s, high-mileage aircraft with aging radars, but their software allows them to employ some of the most modern weapons in NATO inventory. This includes the AIM-120 air-to-air missile and the stealthy long-range Joint Air-to-Surface Stand-off Missile (JASSM).

Once Ukraine has the aircraft, they must be able to operate, maintain, and sustain them, and there are challenges to each. A March 2023 study by the Congressional Research Service identified several crucial conditions necessary to successfully field F-16s. Many of these concern the supply chain for the aircraft: acquiring sufficient spare parts, allocating funding for operations and support, implementing a maintenance inventory system, training maintainers, and acquiring an ongoing supply of weapons with which to arm their F-16s.

All of this means that the situation is far more complicated than simply training Ukrainian pilots and delivering a handful of well-used F-16s. These issues must be addressed if Ukraine wants to be able to consistently fly them. Without plans to support these aircraft, they will break down rapidly and become expensive stationary targets for Russian air-to-surface missiles. Doing things the right way takes time: Ukraine likely won’t be able to deploy F-16s operationally until the end of the year, if not later.

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EVEN WITH ADEQUATE SUPPLY AND MAINTENANCE, the F-16 isn’t plug-and-play. Like any complex weapons system, it was designed to fulfill a particular set of roles within an existing military structure with a unique doctrine and culture. To get the most out of the airplanes, the Ukrainians will have to adopt more of the practices and techniques inherent to the plane’s design. The F-16 was designed to help the U.S. Air Force beat the Russian Air Force. The more the Ukrainians can fly them like the U.S. Air Force would, the better.

The public also might have excessive expectations for what the F-16 can accomplish. It was designed to be a lightweight, multi-role fighter capable of doing many missions well, but not to be the best at any of them. In a few ways, it’s worse than current Ukrainian fighters. For example, F-16s were never intended to be operated from improvised airfields where they run a much greater risk of ingesting debris into their engines. Anyone who remembers Sully Sullenberger has some idea of how that can turn out.

Another area where they are at a disadvantage to the latest Russian aircraft is air-to-air combat. Large Russian air superiority fighters such as the MiG-31 and Su-35 can see significantly farther with their powerful, modern radars. They also have R-37 missiles that have a much longer range than NATO-supplied AIM-120 AMRAAMs. In other words, Russian aircraft can potentially spot Ukrainian F-16s and shoot them down before the Ukrainian pilots see them coming. This is exactly what has been happening with Ukraine’s current fleet of Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters, and the improved capabilities of the F-16 are not enough to tilt this disparity in Ukraine’s favor.

Because of the reach of Russian air superiority fighters, Ukrainian fighter pilots often break off missions early, or operate far behind their own front lines. F-16s would operate with the same constraints, limiting their ability to perform air-to-surface missions with relatively short-range weapons like the JDAM bomb guidance kits already supplied by the United States (and reportedly being jammed by the Russians).

In total, it seems highly unlikely that F-16s will change the balance on the battlefield any time soon. The airspace over Ukraine will remain contested and Ukraine’s ground forces will still need to rely on Ukraine’s existing air platforms—including drones—for air support.

In the long run, however, there are significant logistical and tactical advantages to Ukraine’s acquiring F-16s. It will be easier for Ukraine to sustain aircraft whose parts are supplied by the United States and NATO countries than their legacy aircraft manufactured by Russia. It also could make it easier for Ukraine to integrate their air force into NATO at some future date.

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THE MORE UKRAINE’S ARSENAL is compatible with NATO’s, the better. Ukraine was previously given AGM-88 High Speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM) for use against ground-based radars. They managed to “MacGyver” the system onto their MiG-29s, but the retrofitting was far from ideal, as Soviet-era fighters were never designed to fire U.S.-made missiles. F-16s with updated software will enable Ukraine to employ HARM more effectively, along with other weapons that were designed to be used by F-16s.

Other air-to-air weapons systems commonly available to F-16s, such as the AIM-9 Sidewinder and the AIM-120 (which presumably the United States and NATO will provide), will be useful for defending Ukraine against Russian cruise missiles (e.g. Kh-101 and Kh-555) and Iranian-made Shahed-131/136 drones. Ukraine’s stockpiles of Soviet-era S-300 surface-to-air missiles has been dwindling, and there are a limited number of Patriot missiles available. The F-16’s air-to-air capability will help those ground-based defenses last longer.

It is an open question whether the United States will supply JASSM to Ukraine, but it would not be unprecedented. Britain provided Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles and Ukraine has already used them. Storm Shadow is broadly similar to the baseline version of JASSM in terms of size, range, employment, and observability, so providing JASSM would not constitute an escalation nor cross a Russian “red line.”

F-16s loaded with JASSM could be critical to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov’s stated long-term plan to re-take Crimea “without a fight.” Executing this would require cutting off Russian troops in Crimea from their supply lines via the Kerch Strait Bridge, ports like Sevastopol, and the land route from Rostov-on-Don. JASSM could give Ukraine with the ability to consistently hit logistics hubs such as port facilities, ammunition depots, bridges, and command and control facilities deep within Crimea. It could also serve as a stand-in for the ground launched ATACMS missile (which Ukraine has unsuccessfully requested). The United States has significantly more JASSMs than ATACMS, so it might be willing to supply them to augment Storm Shadow.

In the final analysis, Ukraine is unlikely to be fielding F-16s until late in the year—certainly not in time for the anticipated “spring offensive.” F-16s likely will not grant Ukraine air superiority, but they will facilitate the defense of their air space and, if paired with JASSM, provide an important launch vehicle for the type of long-range weapons necessary for their plans to force Russia out of Crimea.

While F-16s are by no means a wonder weapon that will turn the tide of the war, they will help Ukraine adopt more Western styles of warfighting—or force it to—and help its military cooperate better with those of NATO. Unlike the previous provisions of anti-tank missiles, artillery, armored vehicles, and air defenses, the decision to give Ukraine F-16s is not about helping it survive the next phase of the war, but helping it ensure its sovereignty in the long term.
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[Albany Rifles]

Again, F-16s are not perfect but they are better than nothing. They will help for sure.

[Gun Grape]

The only non USAF F-16s that have been updated to fire JASSM are the Polish Block 50s. Also The Dutch and Norway didn't buy into the latest updates that the USAF have since they are quicker on standing up F-35 replacements. They can all drop JDAMs and fire Mavericks, The Norwegian ones can shoot Penguins. But the thought on all the news and social media sites that all F-16s are equal and can fire everything in the inventory is wrong.

Even the USAF doesn't upgrade the whole fleet. Do you think the Aggressor squadrons flying F-16C block 30s are fully updated? No. So if we want to give the Ukrainian AF that option, Who pays for the updates? And just as important who pays for the munitions? Those AIM-120s and AIM-9s also fit on the F-35.

They are not going to be ready for the counterattack. The US and every other country that are funding this thing don't have a unlimited budget. Just look as the Debt Ceiling "crisis" going on in the US right now. Do you think that when this pile of money is gone the House will give another big chunk? Its already a big talking point with the Republican's. And looking at TROTW with inflation what it is there is pushback on how much they fund also.

Work on the "Now" things. More Artillery, more HE and Smoke rounds, more mortars and MICLICs, Suicide drones. Lots more small arms ammo Things that will help them push the Russians out now. Before the political willpower and public opinion change.

Then have them order some South Korean TA-50s F-50 to get the NATO ball rolling and long lead to new Block 70 F-16s through FMS.

If they want F-16s with sidewinders because BUCs are to expensive, the US Army is bound to have some spare MIM-72s sitting in the desert somewhere

[Albany Rifles]

We are pushing a crap ton of the weapons you are talking about...especially CL V. Not sure how many MICLIC extras we have, but sure...those as well.

And any Chaparrals left are being used as targets...in the desert or anywhere else.

And you absolutely correct on the funding...need to do as much as we can now while the iron is hot. But post-counter attack who knows what funding will be there...whether for F-16s let alone balsa wood gliders.

[TopHatter]

Ukraine says it's working with BAE to set up weapons production facility

(Reuters) - Ukraine is working with major British defense company BAE Systems to set up a Ukrainian base to both produce and repair weapons from tanks to artillery, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday.

Zelenskiy spoke after talks with senior officials from BAE, including Chief Executive Charles Woodburn.

"It is indeed a massive manufacturer of weaponry, the kind of weaponry that we need now and will continue to need," Zelenskiy said in an evening video address.

"We are working on establishing a suitable base in Ukraine for production and repair. This encompasses a wide range of weaponry, from tanks to artillery," he added. Zelenskiy did not give further details.

Earlier in the day, Zelenskiy said the two sides had agreed to start work on opening a BAE office in Ukraine.
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Niiiiice....