Russo-Ukrainian war: Strategic and economic theatres

[Monash]

Interesting article recently posted this month by "war on the Rocks' (adapted from an article by Le Rubicon) on the future prospects for the Russian economy post 2024. A bit lengthy but a good read.

https://warontherocks.com/2024/09/ru...-but-how-slow/

I'm also going to post this link on another forum that a few pro-Putin trolls inhabit and make some heads explode. (Because why not?)

[Albany Rifles]

A definite good news story for many reasons. It's a return of forward deployed equipment sets and pushing further forward in NATO territory. It also shows a strong NATO partner is all in on supporting the coalition. And this is just a start. There will eventually be a brigade set forward deployed to compliment the sets we have on hand in the BENELUX.

First batch of armored vehicles arrives at Powidz APS-2 worksite | Article | The United States Army

First batch of armored vehicles arrives at Powidz APS-2 worksite


By Capt. Michael Mastrangelo, 22nd Mobile Public Affairs Detachment and Cameron Porter, 405th Army Field Support BrigadeJune 28, 2024







POWIDZ, Poland — The newest, most modern prepositioned stocks facility in the world, officially named the Powidz Army Prepositioned Stocks-2 worksite, began receiving the first batch of equipment June 27, 2024, by rail. When all the equipment at the Powidz APS-2 location is fully in place it will be able to outfit an entire modernized armored brigade combat team.

The receipt of 14 M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks and one M88 armored recovery vehicle brings the facility one step closer to being fully mission capable. The new worksite, a NATO-funded project and the most significant single infrastructure endeavor by NATO in the past 30 years, is expected to reach full mission capability by 2025.

When fully stocked with over 5,000 major end items in the weeks and months to come — including hundreds of M1A2 tanks, M2 Bradley fighting vehicles, M109 Paladin self-propelled howitzers and more — the site will serve as one of six active APS-2 worksites in Europe under the mission command of the 405th Army Field Support Brigade.

The Powidz APS-2 worksite can be leveraged by the Army for use by U.S.-based armored brigade combat teams deploying to Europe for training or contingency operations. The site will allow the Army to quickly project combat power to NATO’s eastern flank, drastically reducing the timeline associated with deploying large quantities of equipment from the U.S. to Europe.

“This is the premiere facility when it comes to prepositioned stocks,” said Col. Ernest Lane II, the 405th AFSB commander. “What makes this facility so important is the relationship between the U.S., NATO and our Polish partners. This facility allows us to maintain readiness while working by, with, and through our partners.”






The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers helped to design the state-of-the-art APS-2 worksite, which encompasses 650,000 square feet of humidity-controlled warehouse space, a vehicle maintenance facility and various supporting structures, plus 58,000 square feet of munitions storage.

The facility was designed and built to meet construction standards in Poland and will become the new home of one of U.S. Army Europe and Africa’s most vital capabilities —an entire armored brigade combat team’s worth of tactical vehicles and equipment sets — managed and maintained at ready-to-issue standards by the 405th AFSB’s Army Field Support Battalion-Poland.

The Powidz APS-2 worksite demonstrates the U.S. and NATO’s commitment to maintaining rapid deployment capabilities, playing a crucial role in deterrence through enduring agreements and strategic investments. In addition, it alleviates many of the deployment requirements typically associated with deploying major combat units to Europe from the U.S. It is estimated that APS-2 worksites in Europe, like Powidz, can help reduce deployment timelines for an armored brigade combat team from 60 days to as little as a week or two.

The 405th AFSB’s prepositioned stocks program and it’s six APS-2 worksites can also be used during major exercises. As U.S.-based combat units arrive in Poland or nearby countries for exercises like DEFENDER, they can draw their required equipment and vehicles for the exercises from APS-2.

The 405th AFSB commander was at the Powidz APS-2 worksite when the first Abrams tanks arrived at the site by rail. He emphasized the importance of the APS-2 worksite, saying, “APS-2 is about deterrence and ensuring that we can rapidly deploy our forces on a moment’s notice.”

“This facility has a huge impact on NATO. The strategic location allows us to have multiple avenues of approach and routes of departure and embarkation. It is an example of strategic positioning in the right place, at the right time,” Lane said.

“It’s a forward projection platform to be utilized in Europe. It allows an armored brigade to deploy to Europe and receive necessary equipment within 48 hours,” added Lt. Col. Omar McKen, the AFSBn-Poland commander, who is tasked with mission command of the Powidz APS-2 worksite.

The construction of the Powidz APS-2 worksite represents a significant leap forward in enhancing NATO’s operational readiness and strategic capabilities on its eastern flank. The worksite bolsters defense capabilities and strengthens deterrence efforts while also demonstrating the U.S.’s continued commitment to its European allies and partners. Ultimately, the Powidz APS-2 worksite helps to solidify an important partnership between the U.S., NATO and Poland, highlighting a commitment to the collective defense and security of Europe.




The 405th AFSB’s APS-2 program enhances U.S. Army Europe and Africa’s readiness and capability to support the warfighter while simultaneously promoting stability and security in the region. By providing turn-key power projection APS-2 packages ready to employ at a moment’s notice, the APS-2 program is a key component of U.S. Army Europe and Africa’s power projection and warfighter readiness missions.

The 405th AFSB is assigned to U.S. Army Sustainment Command and headquartered in Kaiserslautern, Germany. The brigade provides materiel enterprise support to U.S. Forces throughout Europe and Africa – providing theater sustainment logistics; synchronizing acquisition, logistics and technology; and leveraging U.S. Army Materiel Command’s materiel enterprise to support joint forces. For more information on the 405th AFSB, visit the official website and the official Facebook site.

(This news article was written by Capt. Michael Mastrangelo, 22nd Mobile Public Affairs Detachment, and Cameron Porter, 405th AFSB Public Affairs Officer)

[Albany Rifles]

Another sign that Putin's attack on Ukraine may have been a strategic overreach. We are seeing a reemergence of NATO and a commitment of its members to expand their military capabilities as well as defense production. Also 2% of GDP for defense may have been a floor and NOT a ceiling.

I believe all around this is a good news story for Europe & for the US & Canada.

A long-sought European defense ‘awakening’ has arrived, EUCOM commander says - Defense One

Gen. Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe and commander of U.S. European Command.

A long-sought European defense ‘awakening’ has arrived, EUCOM commander says

“This is a different Europe from what we complained about for years,” Gen. Cavoli says.



BY PATRICK TUCKER
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY EDITOR, DEFENSE ONE
JULY 18, 2024

ASPEN, Colorado—Europe is finally getting serious about defense, and should receive more, not less, transatlantic investment and engagement, the top U.S. commander in the region said Thursday.

“This is exactly the partner we've been looking for for three decades. It's exactly the time when a U.S. contribution will produce the most value, [when] the most value will come from U.S. participation,” Gen. Chris Cavoli told the Aspen Security Forum, to some applause. “This is exactly the moment when American interests will be advanced most by American continued participation” in NATO.

The bottom line: “This is a different Europe from what we complained about for years.”

Cavoli, who leads U.S. European Command and is NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, made his remarks in the context of growing skepticism about the alliance and its members among the American right wing. In February, U.S presidential candidate Donald Trump said he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want'' to any NATO member who doesn’t spend at least 2 percent of GDP on national defense.

Cavoli didn’t mention Trump and did not dispute that a 2 percent contribution was vital for all NATO members. But he did say that the discussion within the alliance had changed dramatically from where it was just a few years ago.

“Many nations are concluding that 2% is not enough, that they're going to have to go higher than that,” he said. “Poland is spending upwards of 4% right now. The UK is coming up to 2.5% as their announced goal. I think we'll see that across the board.”

Cavoli also said Europe’s growing commitment to its own defense goes beyond budgets. He noted Germany’s recent decision to allow the United States to deploy SM-6 Tomahawk cruise missiles and new hypersonic weapons to the country.

“It's really emblematic of, you know, Europe awakening,” he said.

The decision made little splash in Germany—a far cry from the sort of public protest that might have welled up in the 1980s, said Jens Plötner, the foreign and security policy advisor to the country’s chancellor.

“It's just an emblematic sign of how much we are living in this, what we call zeitenwende, or ‘sea change moment,’ and where we have been observing Russia building up capacities in the Kaliningrad enclave, which have the capacity to reach our capitals in minutes,” Plötner said at the Aspen conference.

Next, Cavoli said, Europe should build up its defense industry.

“We terribly need the European Union's efforts to stimulate the industrial base,” he said.

The next era of Ukraine support

Cavoli said European countries and the United States and U.S. allies must also continue to supply Ukraine with arms and other assistance—and to work to increase their contributions.

“The outcome on the ground in Ukraine is terribly, terribly important—vital to future European and global security,” he said, adding that Ukrainian success on the battlefield “depends on us, and that's going to require us to generate and produce more equipment than we were contemplating perhaps two years ago.”

Despite Europe’s increased focus on its own defense, many Ukraine supporters have noted that Europe’s support for Ukraine appears to be softening. The recently announced draft of the German defense budget, for instance, essentially halves the amount of funds available for Ukraine to roughly 4 billion euro.

Plötner described that number as “the floor.” He said that he couldn’t predict what the German parliament would ultimately do.

But he noted that European and other governments had been working to secure Ukraine funding via other means: by appropriating Russian money stored across Europe. In June, the members of the G7 agreed to give Kyiv a $50 billion line of credit backed by Russian assets.

“I think the message is clear: Ukraine is out of the danger zone to finance its defense spending next year,” Plötner said. “And that's the double message. It's the message to Ukraine, to our partners in Kyiv, but, just as importantly, it's a message to Moscow: You cannot wait us out.”

[Albany Rifles]

Appreciate the perspective from a local! Well, local-ish!!! Thanks, Kato!

[kato]

Not as bullish as NATO there is no doubt the EU tilts more towards Ukraine in the war.

The EU has actually pretty much been bankrolling Ukraine outside the military since the start of the war. Overall EU commitment including member states is pretty much on the same level as the USA at 155 billion USD compared to 175 billion.

For a summary see https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/def...ine%202024.pdf

Kallas herself has always been very outspoken pro-Ukraine in a bullish way with demands that vastly exceed what EU member states are willing to support. Pretty much following US demands in a very New Europe way. Stuff like demanding 3% spending from NATO members or being pro Ukrainian NATO membership. Unless she changes course hard on such ideas that means she'll fairly soon be politically sidelined in her new office.

Realistically her final push to move to the EU position came after her party only came in third place during the European elections in Estonia last month, and as there was also a domestic affair over military spending (the government failing to buy ammunition worth 1.6 billion Euro despite the military calling for it, and her lieing about the affair) there were calls for her to step down as prime minister in her country. She also lost a lot of popularity in Estonia both due to budget cuts in the public sector and after her plans to move to a NATO or EU position went public, possibly leading to the election loss.

[Albany Rifles]

Admittedly from a small country I am intrigued how Kallas's views will impact the reactions of the EU towards Russia, Belarus Hungary & other countries. Not as bullish as NATO there is no doubt the EU tilts more towards Ukraine in the war.


Estonia's Kallas, fierce Russia critic and new EU foreign policy chief | Reuters

Estonia's Kallas, fierce Russia critic and new EU foreign policy chief

By Andrius Sytas
July 15, 20246:28 AM EDTUpdated 4 hours ago





Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas reacts during NATO's 75th anniversary summit in Washington, U.S., July 10, 2024. REUTERS/Elizabeth Franz/File Photo[

VILNIUS, July 15 (Reuters) - Kaja Kallas, who resigned as Estonia's prime minister on Monday to become the European Union's next foreign policy chief, is known for her tough stance on Russia, which may raise doubts as to whether she can represent views from across the bloc.
Kallas, 47, has made her name as a critic of neighbouring Russia and what she says are its expansionist aims since she became Estonian prime minister in early 2021.

An uncompromising voice in the EU and NATO for unconditional support to Kyiv and for containing Moscow, she led her country of 1.4 million people to become among the highest per-capita military donors to Ukraine.
Kallas has been wanted in Russia since February for her role in removing Soviet-era monuments in her country.
Born in Tallinn, she is the great-granddaughter of the first Estonian chief of police as the newly independent country emerged from the Russian Empire after World War One only to be absorbed into the Soviet Union in 1940.

Kallas' mother was only six-months-old when her family was forcibly relocated to Siberia in 1949 along with 20,000 other Estonians.
"Russia hasn't changed," she said last year on marking an anniversary of her mother's exile. "This evil lives on in Russia."
Unassuming and open, Kallas is well regarded abroad, though not all of the bloc's countries share her dogged defiance of Russia. Above all, Hungary's Viktor Orban has maintained friendly ties with Moscow even after its invasion of Ukraine.
However, her popularity at home suffered when local media revealed last year that her husband was involved in a business which continued its operations in Russia even as Kallas publicly criticised all who did so. Her government also raised taxes shortly after the 2023 elections and legalised same-sex marriage, which almost half of the country opposes.

ESTONIAN DYNASTY

Kallas is a second-generation politician.
Her father was the governor of the newly independent Estonian central bank and established the liberal Reform Party in 1994, which he led for a decade. He also served as Estonia's prime minister and later as vice president of the European Commission led by Jose Manuel Barroso.

In 2011, Kaja Kallas left a career as a partner at a Tallinn law firm to run, successfully, for the Estonian and then European parliaments on a Reform Party ticket. After leading the Reform Party from 2018 she became Estonia's first female prime minister in 2021.
Kallas, known for her uncompromising drive in pushing through policies, has been accused of arrogance by some of her detractors.
Kallas has no doubt her small country's security depends on its membership of NATO and the European Union.
"If Europe is united and strong, Estonia will also be strong," she told the Estonian parliament in 2022.

[Amled]

Hungary’s Victor Orban as part of the EU’s rotation principle has of July 1^st taken over as foreman of the EU Council! To say the least, an event that for the last few months has given rise to increased worry in other EU nations. Not without cause!
As his first official act, he travelled to Ukraine, where he essentially told President Zelensky, of the necessity of Ukraine to bend over, and accept the inevitable!
He then travelled to Russia; again in his role as foreman of the EU, to touch base with his BFF Putin! Something the Russian propagandists are playing up big time!

Putin, Orban discuss Ukraine, resumption of broad dialogue

https://tass.com/politics/1813299

Isn’t it nice when people live up to expectations?

[Ironduke]

My thoughts... so Russia claims that Ukraine is part of Russia. What's the difference then between giving the money to Ukraine (claimed to be part of Russia) or Russia?

https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...abe46b4548716d

G7 leaders agree to lend Ukraine billions backed by Russia’s frozen assets. Here’s how it will work

WASHINGTON (AP) — Leaders of the Group of Seven wealthy democracies have agreed to engineer a $50 billion loan to help Ukraine in its fight for survival that would use interest earned on profits from Russia’s frozen central bank assets as collateral.

Details of the deal were still being hashed out as G7 leaders gathered for a summit in Italy, but the money could reach Kyiv before the end of the year. That’s according to a French official who confirmed the agreement Wednesday ahead of a formal announcement at the summit. Here’s how the plan would work:

Where would the money come from?

Most of the money would be provided in the form of a loan from the U.S. government that would be backed by windfall profits being earned on roughly $300 billion in immobilized Russian assets. The vast majority of the money is being held in European Union nations.

A French official said that while the loan would be mostly U.S.-guaranteed, it could be “topped up” with European money or other national contributions.

Why not just give Ukraine the frozen assets?

That’s much harder to do.

For more than a year, officials from multiple countries have debated the legality of confiscating the money and sending it to Ukraine.

The U.S. and its allies immediately froze whatever Russian central bank assets they had access to when Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022 — basically, money being held in banks outside Russia.

The assets are immobilized and can’t be accessed by Moscow — but they still belong to Russia.

While governments can generally freeze property or funds without difficulty, turning them into forfeited assets that can be used for the benefit of Ukraine requires an extra layer of judicial procedure, including a legal basis and adjudication in a court.

So the European Union instead has set aside the windfall profits being generated by the frozen assets. That pot of money is easier to access.

Separately, the U.S. earlier this year passed a law called the REPO Act — short for the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity for Ukrainians Act — that allows the Biden administration to seize $5 billion in Russian state assets located in the U.S. and use them for the benefit of Kyiv. That arrangement is still being worked out.

[Ironduke]

Reports that the other two had some work done too. One had an eye gouged out, another anally raped with club. Pretty sure these guys are going to sing whatever song the FSB wants them to with regards to falsely implicating Ukraine in the Crocus attack.

[Monash]

If Ukraine was going to undertake a commando operation in Moscow, even a suicide strike it wouldn't be on a rock concert.

[Albany Rifles]

If there is one thing ISIS has told us over the years...if ISIS claims it, it is ISIS.

This was not Ukraine. waiting to get whatever help they can get from the West they are not about to give the GOP ANY reason to hold up aid if it is eventually coming. There is no political or ,moralistic sense for Ukraine to do this. The will hit every and all military & infrastructure target, sure. But a soft target of a theater full of civilians? Not their style...or to their advantage, at all. The strike on the Black Sea Fleet communication center makes a lot more sense.

[Ironduke]

Photos have been released of another one of the captured suspects, pants down, handcuffed, on what looks to be a school gynmasium floor, with electrical wires from a battery connected to his genitals.

Videos now circulating on social media show the detention of the suspected attackers and part of their interrogation. One shows a Russian agent trying to force a man to eat a piece of his own ear which has been severed. He spits it out.

In another video his head is bandaged and face covered in blood. Any confessions that emerge after such torture could not be treated as reliable.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68649229

Pretty sure these guys are going to say whatever the Russians tell them to.

Spoiler!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJdornlX...jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJcx2V7W...pg&name=medium

[Amled]

ISIS has now published video of the attack on Telegram reconfirming their involvement at the same time.

But it was the Ukrainians I tells ya!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rt-hall-attack

New Islamic State videos back claim it carried out Moscow concert hall attack

It’s a bit of a conundrum isn’t it? We now have two versions of who orchestrated the Moscow attack.
On one hand we have Putin; that staunch defender of truth and veracity, who is trying to lay the blame on Ukraine! His claim will no doubt be backed up by the “detained” suspects after they receive treatment at a local FSB facility!
Then there’s ISIS; another sterling example of humanity and truth, claiming responsibility, even going as far as supplying photos and videos (curtesy of HAMAS!) of the perps.

Btw. Is there any way to verify the locality where the car with the suspects was stopped? GPS or satellite? After all Putin claimed it was on its way to the Ukraine border, Be interesting to see if he was correct; for once!

[Monash]

ISIS has now published video of the attack on Telegram reconfirming their involvement at the same time.

But it was the Ukrainians I tells ya!

[Ironduke]

So one of the four suspects, an FSB agent sliced off one of his ears with a dagger (photo confirmation) and supposedly made him eat it. There are several photos of the guy with his ear being sliced off, and fully removed, and later photos of him with a bloodstained bandaged head. Might be stills from a video. I'm not going to post the photos of the act or a link to them here, but there are links to Twitter posts with photos that are prominent on the various Ukraine conflict reddits.

A Russian I know showed me a photo of the bloodstained dagger up for auction on a Telegram channel. The bid was around 10 million rubles (~$100,000), as of about 10 hours ago. The guy who sliced the ear off says a portion of the proceeds will go to victims and their families.