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Russo-Ukrainian war: Strategic and economic theatres

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  • Amled
    replied
    https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-w...f92925de2046e4
    The European Union overcame Hungary veto’s threat to seal a 50 billion-euro aid package for Ukraine
    Ever since December Orban of Hungary has bombastically made it clear that he would veto any EU aid to Ukraine.
    But on the very day of the EU summit where he would deliver his veto, he folded like a cheap house in a hurricane!!!
    All it took was a pre-meeting; he held with the big dogs in the EU; Germany, France etc. Where the consensus; among media commentators, was that he was told that Hungary needs the EU, much more than the EU needs Hungary!
    So what was touted as a mammoth negotiating Summit turned out to be; in the words of The Bard…Much Ado About Nothing!





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  • Albany Rifles
    replied
    Ukraine's drone attacks is starting to really take a bite out of the Russian energy economy.


    https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...es-2024-01-31/


    Russia cuts gasoline, diesel exports to offset refinery outages

    Reuters
    January 31, 202412:44 PM EST

    Updated a day ago





    Fuga Bluemarine crude oil tanker lies at anchor near the terminal Kozmino in Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia, December 4, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights, opens new tab​​​​​​​

    MOSCOW, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Russia has reduced gasoline exports to non-CIS countries to compensate for unplanned repairs at refineries, the Ministry of Energy said on Wednesday, as the country grappled with the impact of fires and drone attacks on its energy infrastructure.
    It said gasoline and diesel exports have been reduced in January by 37% and 23% respectively from the same month in 2023.
    Russia and Ukraine have targeted each other's energy infrastructure in strikes designed to disrupt supply lines and logistics and to demoralise their opponent as they seek the edge in a nearly two-year-old conflict that shows no sign of ending.
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    Russia is voluntarily cutting its oil and fuel exports by 500,000 barrels per day in the first quarter as part of efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) to support the energy markets.
    The cuts, announced by the energy ministry on Wednesday to countries beyond the Commonwealth of Independent States, are separate and prompted by downstream capacity outages.

    Outages include the halt, following what is believed to be a technical incident, of a unit at NORSI, the country's fourth largest refinery, located near the city of Nizhny Novgorod, some 430 km (270 miles) east of Moscow. It is operated by Russia's second-largest oil producer Lukoil (LKOH.MM), opens new tab.
    Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Jan. 27 that repair work would take a month or a month and a half.

    Russian energy giant Novatek (NVTK.MM), opens new tab on Jan. 21 was forced to suspend some operations at the huge Baltic Sea fuel export terminal at Ust-luga, as well as "technological processes" at a nearby fuel-producing complex, after a fire, started by what Ukrainian media said was a drone attack.
    Russia will likely cut exports of naphtha by some 127,500-136,000 barrels per day, or around a third of its total exports, after fires disrupted operations at refineries on the Baltic and Black Seas, according to traders and LSEG ship-tracking data.
    The ministry also said on Wednesday that major Russian oil companies had boosted gasoline production, which resulted in an increase of gasoline supplies to the domestic market in first 25 days of January by 7%, or 150,000 metric tons, year-on-year, and diesel supplies by almost 17%, or 490,000 tons.
    The country's inventories for ensuring stable supply of the domestic market amount to 1.9 million tons for gasoline and 3.9 million tons for diesel fuel, up 16% and 7% from January 2023, it said.

    Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin; writing by Maxim Rodionov Editing by Peter Graff and Barbara Lewis

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  • Albany Rifles
    replied
    Originally posted by S2 View Post
    Probably originally replacing until we had nothing left they could replace. Subsequent ammo would be packaged indirect to Ukraine, probably passing through the U.S. and documentation changed while here.

    Letter of the law.
    Let's just say the installations where US ASPs in Korea are located is considered sovereign territory according to the SOFA.

    I'll say no more!

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  • S2
    replied
    Probably originally replacing until we had nothing left they could replace. Subsequent ammo would be packaged indirect to Ukraine, probably passing through the U.S. and documentation changed while here.

    Letter of the law.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ironduke
    replied
    Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
    Not a good development. The Russians were certainly experiencing shell hunger and anything that alleviates that is bad for Ukraine. How much 152mm shell production can North Korea sustain per month? And it goes without saying, Ukraine badly needs the proposed US aid package, and they also need a lot more shells.

    It seems at the moment Western shell production isn't going to ramp up much over the next year. South Korea is emerging as a major arms producer, I've glanced over some articles, but I'll bet astralis probably knows quite a bit about it. It seems the ROK can ramp up production with more... alacrity... than Western countries. While ROK won't sell directly to Ukraine, they're very eager to export arms, and it seems they don't have problems selling via proxy (i.e. "backfilling" US stocks). Does anybody know what ROK 155mm shell production capabilities are?
    https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20231205000300315
    S. Korea indirectly supplied more 155-mm shells for Ukraine than all European countries combined: WP

    WASHINGTON, Dec. 4 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's "indirect" provision of 155-mm artillery shells for Ukraine this year has made it a larger supplier of ammunition for the war-ravaged country than all European countries combined, The Washington Post (WP) reported Monday.

    In an article on Russia's protracted war against Ukraine, the U.S. daily explained Washington's effort to secure munitions from South Korea when the U.S.' production of shells was barely more than a tenth of some 90,000 shells that Ukraine needed per month.

    South Korean law prohibits providing weapons to war zones, but U.S. officials sought to persuade Seoul to provide munitions, estimating that about 330,000 155-mm shells could be transferred by air and sea within 41 days from Korea, according to the WP.

    "Senior administration officials had been speaking with counterparts in Seoul, who were receptive as long as the provision was indirect," the WP reported. "The shells began to flow at the beginning of the year, eventually making South Korea a larger supplier of artillery ammunition for Ukraine than all European nations combined."

    It did not specify the exact amount of shells that South Korea provided.

    Also unclear is whether Korea supplied weapons to help the U.S. refill its stockpiles depleted after the U.S.' supply of munitions to Ukraine or whether South Korea's munitions were delivered directly for battle operations in Ukraine.

    Seoul has maintained that its policy against directly providing lethal weapons to Ukraine remains unchanged.


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  • Ironduke
    replied
    Regarding the transit of Russian trains across Lithuania to Kaliningrad, back in June 2022 the Lithuanians implemented certain restrictions on the transit of sanctioned goods across its territory. The Russians made a lot of noise about it. The EU first confirmed that Lithuanian restrictions were legal under EU rules, then some time later eventually said some stuff about sanctions really only applying to goods transiting via road traffic. Lithuania then lifted all restrictions on July 23 2023.

    My question is, does Lithuania even need rail links to Russia and Belarus? Why not just sever the rail lines completely on the border with Belarus? Why not just tear out the track and leave a nice wide gap so trains can't even enter from Belarus?

    Leave a comment:


  • Monash
    replied
    From the ISWs latest Russia/Ukraine war update:

    Denmark will reportedly start inspecting and potentially blocking Russian oil tankers in an effort to enforce a price cap on Russian oil and the European Union’s (EU) insurance regulations. TheFinancial Times (FT) reported on November 15 that the EU proposed measures that would allow Denmark to inspect and block Russian oil tankers traveling through the Danish straits. These measures are part of an EU effort to enforce a G7 cap demanding that Western insurers only provide coverage to Russian shipments where oil is sold for less than $60 per barrel.[6] An unnamed senior European government official told FT that “almost none“ of the Russian maritime oil shipments in October 2023 were below the $60 barrel price cap.[7] FT also reported that the EU is concerned that Russian tankers are violating EU regulations by frequently traveling with falsified financial statements or non-Western insurance.

    If true that's a potentially significant and provocative step. Significant because it will raise the cost and/or potentially reduce the amount of Russian oil transiting through the Danish Straits. (Yeah!) Provocative? Because it seems to me it could be argued such a move is a breach of the internationally recognized Copenhagen Convention governing free commercial transit through the Straits.

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  • Monash
    replied
    Interesting article on the near and long term impact of shrinking Russian arms exports (down from 22% of the global total in 2017 to 16% in 2022) and the likely impact ongoing declines will have on the ability of Russia to rebuild it's own armed forces once the war in Ukraine ends.

    https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/russian-arms-trade/
    Last edited by Monash; 16 Nov 23,, 06:52.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ironduke
    replied
    Not a good development. The Russians were certainly experiencing shell hunger and anything that alleviates that is bad for Ukraine. How much 152mm shell production can North Korea sustain per month? And it goes without saying, Ukraine badly needs the proposed US aid package, and they also need a lot more shells.

    It seems at the moment Western shell production isn't going to ramp up much over the next year. South Korea is emerging as a major arms producer, I've glanced over some articles, but I'll bet astralis probably knows quite a bit about it. It seems the ROK can ramp up production with more... alacrity... than Western countries. While ROK won't sell directly to Ukraine, they're very eager to export arms, and it seems they don't have problems selling via proxy (i.e. "backfilling" US stocks). Does anybody know what ROK 155mm shell production capabilities are?

    Leave a comment:


  • Officer of Engineers
    replied
    Russian allies have stepped up. North Korea has shipped over a million shells to Moscow and continues to supply Russia

    https://ottawa.citynews.ca/2023/11/0...lls-to-russia/

    Leave a comment:


  • Amled
    replied
    Originally posted by Monash View Post
    News reports coming in that the EU Commissioner has invited Ukraine to commence membership talks given progress to date on economic reforms and anti-corruption measures etc. The invitation is likely to be ratified at a meeting of EU heads of State this December. If approved as seems likely (Hungary I'm talking to you!) it will mark the official start of the lengthy accession process and be a massive political reversal/poke in the eye to Putin and his government. So unless Zelensky or his immediate successors manage to screw up the reform process badly it's looking like Ukraine should be 'in' the club within a decade. Of course you can also bet Putin, if he lasts that long will try everything humanly possible to screw it up.

    On a side note Georgia also formerly commenced the EU accession process that same day - to the backdrop of large public celebrations in Tbilisi! Seems like the EU is bent of giving Putin the finger every chance it gets.
    Nice piece!
    Maybe with one little addendum.
    Drawing attention to Hungary fine and dandy, but there is now a new member of the BFF Friends of Putin (European Branch): Slovakia!!!
    Its newly elected leader Robert Fico made his allegiances quite clear when he declared:”…no more aid to Ukraine!!!”
    Slovakia once the heaviest contributor per capita to Ukraine, doing a 180 degree!!!



    Leave a comment:


  • Monash
    replied
    News reports coming in that the EU Commissioner has invited Ukraine to commence membership talks given progress to date on economic reforms and anti-corruption measures etc. The invitation is likely to be ratified at a meeting of EU heads of state this December. If approved as seems likely (Hungary I'm talking to you!) it will mark the official start of the lengthy accession process and be a massive political reversal/poke in the eye to Putin and his government. So unless Zelensky or his immediate successors manage to screw up the reform process badly it's looking like Ukraine should be 'in' the club within a decade. Of course you can also bet Putin, if he lasts that long will try everything humanly possible to mess the process up.

    On a side note Georgia also formerly commenced the EU accession process that same day - to the backdrop of large public celebrations in Tbilisi! Seems like the EU is bent of giving Putin the finger every chance it gets.
    Last edited by Monash; 11 Nov 23,, 21:56.

    Leave a comment:


  • Albany Rifles
    replied
    Those weapons production we talked about 18 months ago are paying dividends and reinvigorating our industrial base.



    Ukraine war orders starting to boost revenues for big US defense contractors

    https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...rs-2023-10-27/

    By Mike Stone
    October 27, 20236:10 AM EDTUpdated 3 hours ago

    Servicemen patrol in front of the Patriot air defence system during Polish military training on the missile systems at the airport in Warsaw, Poland February 7, 2023. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel//File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights
    WASHINGTON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is starting to boost defense contractors' revenues, as customers such as the U.S. government restock supplies shipped to Ukraine and countries around Europe arm themselves with an eye on Moscow's aggressions.
    U.S. defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin (LMT.N), General Dynamics (GD.N) and others expect that existing orders for hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds, hundreds of Patriot missile interceptors and a surge in orders for armored vehicles expected in the months ahead will underpin their results in coming quarters.

    New contracts to supply Ukraine directly - or backfill U.S. weapons sent to Ukraine - were signed late last year, and now revenue is flowing to the big defense contractors. Lockheed, General Dynamics and RTX (RTX.N) all reported better than expected results over the past several days, and executives expect both the conflict in Ukraine and Israel's war with Palestinian militant group Hamas to drive up near-term demand.

    "We've gone from 14,000 (artillery) rounds per month to 20,000 very quickly. We're working ahead of schedule to accelerate that production capacity up to 85,000, even as high as 100,000 rounds per month," Jason Aiken, General Dynamics' chief financial officer, said on a call with Wall Street analysts on Wednesday.
    "And I think the Israel situation is only going to put upward pressure on that demand."

    The General Dynamics' Combat Systems unit, which makes armored vehicles, tanks and the artillery Ukraine uses, saw its revenue rise almost 25% versus the same period a year ago.
    RTX, which makes AMRAAM rockets used in Ukraine, said on Tuesday's earnings call with Wall Street analysts it has received $3 billion of orders since Russia's February 2022 invasion that are related to replenishing Ukraine and U.S. war stocks, and the company expects more.


    Third-quarter sales for Northrop Grumman's (NOC.N) Defense Systems segment rose 6% on high demand for ammunition and rocket motors used in guided multiple-launch rocket systems (GMLRS), which play a crucial role in supporting Ukraine's defense efforts against Russian forces. This is part of a global trend. Sweden's Saab (SAABb.ST)raised its full-year sales outlook on Thursday on the back of strong defense demand and Germany's Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE)said third-quarter profit jumped on strong demand for weapons and ammunition.

    During his latest request for $106 billion in new funds for Ukraine, Israel, the Indo-Pacific region and border enforcement, U.S. President Joe Biden on Oct. 20 said some of the supplemental request would go to companies that backfill production of U.S. weapons sent abroad. Biden mentioned Patriot missiles made in Arizona, and "artillery shells manufactured in 12 states across the country," naming Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas.

    To be sure, executives from several defense firms at a recent trade show cautioned that a lack of skilled labor and supply chain issues continue to hamper companies' capacity to fill orders.
    "The supply chain, to be completely candid with you, remains, and I think we expect to remain what I call fragile," General Dynamics's Aiken said on the earnings call, as the company said it was cutting its forecast for 2023 business jet deliveries. "I don't think that's going to get back to what we saw pre-pandemic for the foreseeable future."

    Lockheed on Oct. 17 said supply and labor disruptions are affecting divisions like aeronautics, which makes the advanced F-35 fighter jet, due to the need for processor assemblies, solid-rocket motors, castings and forgings.
    Reporting by Mike Stone in Washington; Editing by Rod Nickel

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  • Albany Rifles
    replied
    Sounds like Hungary & Serbia are in the Find Out stage of the Fvck Around and Find Out cycle!

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  • Ironduke
    replied
    lol @ Hungary, "the new Bulgarian fees are unacceptable and threaten European solidarity". What areas are there exactly where Hungary is in solidarity with Europe?

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/pol...n-russian-gas/
    Bulgaria shocks Hungary, Serbia with huge transit fees on Russian gas

    Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó have reacted strongly to Bulgaria’s decision to introduce new, huge transit fees of €10.2 per MW/h of natural gas passing through the Bulgarian extension of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline to Western Europe – the so-called “Balkan Stream”.

    Serbia and Hungary receive all quantities of Russian gas through the “Balkan Stream”, as do North Macedonia and Austria.

    Bulgaria expects the new transit fees to generate additional revenues of €1.2 billion. The new fee is so high that it will pay off the construction of the Balkan Stream gas pipeline in just one year.

    “This is a big problem for us. This will lead to a drastic increase in the price of gas by an additional €100 per 1000 cubic metres of gas. This is an appalling increase, and we will talk to the Bulgarian side. And this (decision) should not be valid for Serbia,” Serbian President Alexander Vucic commented on Saturday, quoted by Politika.

    Vucic said he would discuss the matter with his Bulgarian counterpart, Rumen Radev.

    The conversation with Radev and the Bulgarian government is unlikely to help because the new legislation was adopted by the Euro-Atlantic majority, which has been acting completely independently of the president and the government in matters related to Russia in recent months.

    “Bulgaria decides on its own what fees to introduce for the transit of gas through its territory,” commented We Continue the Change MP Venko Sabrutev, who is part of the ruling majority.

    He added that the gas pipeline is Bulgarian, and the state itself decides what the fees will be. “Hungary and Serbia should look for an alternative,” he told state television BNT.

    Deputies from the other parties in the ruling coalition Democratic Bulgaria and GERB refused to comment to Euractiv on the matter because “the moment is not right”.

    In April last year, Russia unilaterally stopped the supply of natural gas to Bulgaria, but the authorities in Sofia decided to leave the transit of blue fuel in the West to Hungary.

    “This is a pan-European policy to reduce Russia’s income from the sale of natural gas, petroleum products, etc. We are part of the big European family that does not want the war in Ukraine to continue. We must use economic measures to stop Russia,” Sabrutev said.

    According to Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó, the new Bulgarian fees are unacceptable and threaten European solidarity. A day ago, Hungary also complained about the increase in the price of oil transit through Ukraine.

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