Russo-Ukrainian war: Strategic and economic theatres

[Ironduke]

Maybe the Russians will.

If the Amaq "News Agency" says it was ISIS, it was probably ISIS.

[Monash]

Ok then, we’ll go with ISIS… for now!
But I’ll bet you dollars to doughnuts, that sooner or later the Kremlin will shift responsibility or blame, or whatever, to the West; or better yet Ukraine!!!

Not an unlikely claim. The problem being Putin went on state television a month or so before this attack and accused America of insulting Russia when it informed them that US intelligence had received information indicating that an attack on a public space or concert in Moscow was likely in the near future. This leaves Putin stuck between a rock and a hard place. He went on national television denouncing the US claims as BS. For the Russian public that's a matter of record. And now? He doesn't have a lot of options:

Option 1) A Mea Culpa. IMO? Never going to happen because - well weakness.
Option 2) It was the Ukrainians. More likely but not very believable. The only reason I'm listing it? Because Putin is Putin and if he says 1 + 1 = 3? Whose going to deny it. (Unless of course they want to fall out of a balcony somewhere!).
Option 3) A scapegoat i.e. Russia (by which I means Putin) was failed by (insert name here) from the intelligence services. I promise you heads will roll! And nothing further is ever heard.

None of them are particularly palpable but does it really matter? After all in the end the 'truth' is whatever Putin says it is. As an example? Yevgeny Prigozhin died in an unfortunate plane crash! Anyone beg to differ?

[Ironduke]

Yup, looks like they're going to try to tie these guys to Ukraine. According to the FSB, four of the gunman who carried out the attack at the Crocus "City Hall" concert venue have been apprehended in Bryansk Oblast attempting to cross the border into Ukraine, where it's said the gunman had "relevant contacts".

Meanwhile the death toll has climbed to 133.

Arena attack suspects detained trying to cross Ukrainian border, Russian Security Service says

The four men suspected of carrying out the attack on the Crocus City complex near Moscow on Friday were arrested while trying to cross Russia's border with Ukraine, the Russian Investigative Committee has said.

“Special services and law enforcement agencies in the Bryansk region, near the border with Ukraine, detained four suspects from among those who committed a terrorist attack in the Crocus City Hall concert hall,” the Committee said.

According to state media RIA Novosti, "the weapons used by the terrorists were prepared in advance in a cache, the FSB [Security Service] reported.”

“After the terrorist attack, the criminals intended to cross the border of the Russian Federation and Ukraine and had relevant contacts on the Ukrainian side, the FSB said,” according to RIA.

State-owned Russian news agency TASS also reported that the assailants had “contacts on the Ukrainian side. The terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall was carefully planned.”

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news...-24/index.html

[Ironduke]

State Department warning of March 7th, for reference. Looks to me like the attackers merely postponed their plans. And the Russians dismissed the possibility as US propaganda and disinformation.

Security Alert: Avoid Large Gatherings over the Next 48 Hours

Location: Moscow, Russia

The Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours.

Actions to Take:

• Avoid crowds.
• Monitor local media for updates.
• Be aware of your surroundings.

[Amled]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68646380

Putin says all four suspects arrested…

Here we have 4 stone cold killers that have just shot and killed dozens of people, they escape, and jump in a car, and head for the border!
This is where inconsistencies start to appear…
We are told by Putin; that fountainhead of truth, that they headed for the Ukrainian/Russia border!
The border of two nations at war, which would be crawling with security patrols, armed check points, road blocks! Not exactly an optimal escape route!!!
That they were “detained” sounds equally dubious!
Then there’s Putin’s little speech; given after ISIS had taken credit for the atrocity! Not once does he mention ISIS, but he does take the trouble to twice insert Ukraine into his rambling nonsense,
So it does look like the Kremlin is trying to fit Ukraine into the role as initiator!

[Ironduke]

So one of the four suspects, an FSB agent sliced off one of his ears with a dagger (photo confirmation) and supposedly made him eat it. There are several photos of the guy with his ear being sliced off, and fully removed, and later photos of him with a bloodstained bandaged head. Might be stills from a video. I'm not going to post the photos of the act or a link to them here, but there are links to Twitter posts with photos that are prominent on the various Ukraine conflict reddits.

A Russian I know showed me a photo of the bloodstained dagger up for auction on a Telegram channel. The bid was around 10 million rubles (~$100,000), as of about 10 hours ago. The guy who sliced the ear off says a portion of the proceeds will go to victims and their families.

[Monash]

ISIS has now published video of the attack on Telegram reconfirming their involvement at the same time.

But it was the Ukrainians I tells ya!

[Amled]

ISIS has now published video of the attack on Telegram reconfirming their involvement at the same time.

But it was the Ukrainians I tells ya!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rt-hall-attack

New Islamic State videos back claim it carried out Moscow concert hall attack

It’s a bit of a conundrum isn’t it? We now have two versions of who orchestrated the Moscow attack.
On one hand we have Putin; that staunch defender of truth and veracity, who is trying to lay the blame on Ukraine! His claim will no doubt be backed up by the “detained” suspects after they receive treatment at a local FSB facility!
Then there’s ISIS; another sterling example of humanity and truth, claiming responsibility, even going as far as supplying photos and videos (curtesy of HAMAS!) of the perps.

Btw. Is there any way to verify the locality where the car with the suspects was stopped? GPS or satellite? After all Putin claimed it was on its way to the Ukraine border, Be interesting to see if he was correct; for once!

[Ironduke]

Photos have been released of another one of the captured suspects, pants down, handcuffed, on what looks to be a school gynmasium floor, with electrical wires from a battery connected to his genitals.

Videos now circulating on social media show the detention of the suspected attackers and part of their interrogation. One shows a Russian agent trying to force a man to eat a piece of his own ear which has been severed. He spits it out.

In another video his head is bandaged and face covered in blood. Any confessions that emerge after such torture could not be treated as reliable.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68649229

Pretty sure these guys are going to say whatever the Russians tell them to.

Spoiler!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJdornlX...jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GJcx2V7W...pg&name=medium

[Albany Rifles]

If there is one thing ISIS has told us over the years...if ISIS claims it, it is ISIS.

This was not Ukraine. waiting to get whatever help they can get from the West they are not about to give the GOP ANY reason to hold up aid if it is eventually coming. There is no political or ,moralistic sense for Ukraine to do this. The will hit every and all military & infrastructure target, sure. But a soft target of a theater full of civilians? Not their style...or to their advantage, at all. The strike on the Black Sea Fleet communication center makes a lot more sense.

[Monash]

If Ukraine was going to undertake a commando operation in Moscow, even a suicide strike it wouldn't be on a rock concert.

[Ironduke]

Reports that the other two had some work done too. One had an eye gouged out, another anally raped with club. Pretty sure these guys are going to sing whatever song the FSB wants them to with regards to falsely implicating Ukraine in the Crocus attack.

[Ironduke]

My thoughts... so Russia claims that Ukraine is part of Russia. What's the difference then between giving the money to Ukraine (claimed to be part of Russia) or Russia?

https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...abe46b4548716d

G7 leaders agree to lend Ukraine billions backed by Russia’s frozen assets. Here’s how it will work

WASHINGTON (AP) — Leaders of the Group of Seven wealthy democracies have agreed to engineer a $50 billion loan to help Ukraine in its fight for survival that would use interest earned on profits from Russia’s frozen central bank assets as collateral.

Details of the deal were still being hashed out as G7 leaders gathered for a summit in Italy, but the money could reach Kyiv before the end of the year. That’s according to a French official who confirmed the agreement Wednesday ahead of a formal announcement at the summit. Here’s how the plan would work:

Where would the money come from?

Most of the money would be provided in the form of a loan from the U.S. government that would be backed by windfall profits being earned on roughly $300 billion in immobilized Russian assets. The vast majority of the money is being held in European Union nations.

A French official said that while the loan would be mostly U.S.-guaranteed, it could be “topped up” with European money or other national contributions.

Why not just give Ukraine the frozen assets?

That’s much harder to do.

For more than a year, officials from multiple countries have debated the legality of confiscating the money and sending it to Ukraine.

The U.S. and its allies immediately froze whatever Russian central bank assets they had access to when Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022 — basically, money being held in banks outside Russia.

The assets are immobilized and can’t be accessed by Moscow — but they still belong to Russia.

While governments can generally freeze property or funds without difficulty, turning them into forfeited assets that can be used for the benefit of Ukraine requires an extra layer of judicial procedure, including a legal basis and adjudication in a court.

So the European Union instead has set aside the windfall profits being generated by the frozen assets. That pot of money is easier to access.

Separately, the U.S. earlier this year passed a law called the REPO Act — short for the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity for Ukrainians Act — that allows the Biden administration to seize $5 billion in Russian state assets located in the U.S. and use them for the benefit of Kyiv. That arrangement is still being worked out.

[Amled]

Hungary’s Victor Orban as part of the EU’s rotation principle has of July 1^st taken over as foreman of the EU Council! To say the least, an event that for the last few months has given rise to increased worry in other EU nations. Not without cause!
As his first official act, he travelled to Ukraine, where he essentially told President Zelensky, of the necessity of Ukraine to bend over, and accept the inevitable!
He then travelled to Russia; again in his role as foreman of the EU, to touch base with his BFF Putin! Something the Russian propagandists are playing up big time!

Putin, Orban discuss Ukraine, resumption of broad dialogue

https://tass.com/politics/1813299

Isn’t it nice when people live up to expectations?

[Albany Rifles]

Admittedly from a small country I am intrigued how Kallas's views will impact the reactions of the EU towards Russia, Belarus Hungary & other countries. Not as bullish as NATO there is no doubt the EU tilts more towards Ukraine in the war.


Estonia's Kallas, fierce Russia critic and new EU foreign policy chief | Reuters

Estonia's Kallas, fierce Russia critic and new EU foreign policy chief

By Andrius Sytas
July 15, 20246:28 AM EDTUpdated 4 hours ago





Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas reacts during NATO's 75th anniversary summit in Washington, U.S., July 10, 2024. REUTERS/Elizabeth Franz/File Photo[

VILNIUS, July 15 (Reuters) - Kaja Kallas, who resigned as Estonia's prime minister on Monday to become the European Union's next foreign policy chief, is known for her tough stance on Russia, which may raise doubts as to whether she can represent views from across the bloc.
Kallas, 47, has made her name as a critic of neighbouring Russia and what she says are its expansionist aims since she became Estonian prime minister in early 2021.

An uncompromising voice in the EU and NATO for unconditional support to Kyiv and for containing Moscow, she led her country of 1.4 million people to become among the highest per-capita military donors to Ukraine.
Kallas has been wanted in Russia since February for her role in removing Soviet-era monuments in her country.
Born in Tallinn, she is the great-granddaughter of the first Estonian chief of police as the newly independent country emerged from the Russian Empire after World War One only to be absorbed into the Soviet Union in 1940.

Kallas' mother was only six-months-old when her family was forcibly relocated to Siberia in 1949 along with 20,000 other Estonians.
"Russia hasn't changed," she said last year on marking an anniversary of her mother's exile. "This evil lives on in Russia."
Unassuming and open, Kallas is well regarded abroad, though not all of the bloc's countries share her dogged defiance of Russia. Above all, Hungary's Viktor Orban has maintained friendly ties with Moscow even after its invasion of Ukraine.
However, her popularity at home suffered when local media revealed last year that her husband was involved in a business which continued its operations in Russia even as Kallas publicly criticised all who did so. Her government also raised taxes shortly after the 2023 elections and legalised same-sex marriage, which almost half of the country opposes.

ESTONIAN DYNASTY

Kallas is a second-generation politician.
Her father was the governor of the newly independent Estonian central bank and established the liberal Reform Party in 1994, which he led for a decade. He also served as Estonia's prime minister and later as vice president of the European Commission led by Jose Manuel Barroso.

In 2011, Kaja Kallas left a career as a partner at a Tallinn law firm to run, successfully, for the Estonian and then European parliaments on a Reform Party ticket. After leading the Reform Party from 2018 she became Estonia's first female prime minister in 2021.
Kallas, known for her uncompromising drive in pushing through policies, has been accused of arrogance by some of her detractors.
Kallas has no doubt her small country's security depends on its membership of NATO and the European Union.
"If Europe is united and strong, Estonia will also be strong," she told the Estonian parliament in 2022.