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Russo-Ukrainian war: Strategic and economic theatres

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  • Ukraine's drone attacks is starting to really take a bite out of the Russian energy economy.


    https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...es-2024-01-31/


    Russia cuts gasoline, diesel exports to offset refinery outages

    Reuters
    January 31, 202412:44 PM EST

    Updated a day ago





    Fuga Bluemarine crude oil tanker lies at anchor near the terminal Kozmino in Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia, December 4, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights, opens new tab​​​​​​​

    MOSCOW, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Russia has reduced gasoline exports to non-CIS countries to compensate for unplanned repairs at refineries, the Ministry of Energy said on Wednesday, as the country grappled with the impact of fires and drone attacks on its energy infrastructure.
    It said gasoline and diesel exports have been reduced in January by 37% and 23% respectively from the same month in 2023.
    Russia and Ukraine have targeted each other's energy infrastructure in strikes designed to disrupt supply lines and logistics and to demoralise their opponent as they seek the edge in a nearly two-year-old conflict that shows no sign of ending.
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    Russia is voluntarily cutting its oil and fuel exports by 500,000 barrels per day in the first quarter as part of efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) to support the energy markets.
    The cuts, announced by the energy ministry on Wednesday to countries beyond the Commonwealth of Independent States, are separate and prompted by downstream capacity outages.

    Outages include the halt, following what is believed to be a technical incident, of a unit at NORSI, the country's fourth largest refinery, located near the city of Nizhny Novgorod, some 430 km (270 miles) east of Moscow. It is operated by Russia's second-largest oil producer Lukoil (LKOH.MM), opens new tab.
    Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Jan. 27 that repair work would take a month or a month and a half.

    Russian energy giant Novatek (NVTK.MM), opens new tab on Jan. 21 was forced to suspend some operations at the huge Baltic Sea fuel export terminal at Ust-luga, as well as "technological processes" at a nearby fuel-producing complex, after a fire, started by what Ukrainian media said was a drone attack.
    Russia will likely cut exports of naphtha by some 127,500-136,000 barrels per day, or around a third of its total exports, after fires disrupted operations at refineries on the Baltic and Black Seas, according to traders and LSEG ship-tracking data.
    The ministry also said on Wednesday that major Russian oil companies had boosted gasoline production, which resulted in an increase of gasoline supplies to the domestic market in first 25 days of January by 7%, or 150,000 metric tons, year-on-year, and diesel supplies by almost 17%, or 490,000 tons.
    The country's inventories for ensuring stable supply of the domestic market amount to 1.9 million tons for gasoline and 3.9 million tons for diesel fuel, up 16% and 7% from January 2023, it said.

    Reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin; writing by Maxim Rodionov Editing by Peter Graff and Barbara Lewis
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
    Mark Twain

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    • https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-w...f92925de2046e4
      The European Union overcame Hungary veto’s threat to seal a 50 billion-euro aid package for Ukraine
      Ever since December Orban of Hungary has bombastically made it clear that he would veto any EU aid to Ukraine.
      But on the very day of the EU summit where he would deliver his veto, he folded like a cheap house in a hurricane!!!
      All it took was a pre-meeting; he held with the big dogs in the EU; Germany, France etc. Where the consensus; among media commentators, was that he was told that Hungary needs the EU, much more than the EU needs Hungary!
      So what was touted as a mammoth negotiating Summit turned out to be; in the words of The Bard…Much Ado About Nothing!





      When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

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      • Anyone have thoughts on the now-constant Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil, gas, and energy infrastructure? There's a lot of video, photos out there, but I'm curious if these strikes are doing real damage, or if what we're seeing is more superficial.
        "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
          Anyone have thoughts on the now-constant Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil, gas, and energy infrastructure? There's a lot of video, photos out there, but I'm curious if these strikes are doing real damage, or if what we're seeing is more superficial.
          I read/heard somewhere the last few days that Ukraine's attacks have knocked 12% of Russian refining capacity offline. Not an insignificant amount.
          “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
          Mark Twain

          Comment


          • New Perun video drop:

            "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post

              I read/heard somewhere the last few days that Ukraine's attacks have knocked 12% of Russian refining capacity offline. Not an insignificant amount.
              The plus side for Ukraine is that the production facilities and supporting infrastructure are simply so extensive and so widely disbursed that they're extremely hard to protect, especially from low tech/low viability threats like low/slow drones. That and the fact that in this case range is more important than payload. A half dozen hits by drones on an oil facility, each carrying even only single digit kilos of weapons grade explosive has the potential to do vastly more damage than they would to a whole range of other potential targets.
              Last edited by Monash; 19 Mar 24,, 00:00.
              If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Monash View Post

                The plus side for Ukraine is that the production facilities and supporting infrastructure are simply so extensive and so widely disbursed that they're extremely hard to protect, especially from low tech/low viability threats like low/slow drones. That and the fact that in this case range is more important than payload. A half dozen hits by drones each carrying even only a single digit kilos of weapons grade explosive on a major oil facility has the potential to do vastly more damage to that facility than they would to a whole range of other potential targets.
                And those strikes are going deeper and deeper into Russia.
                “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                Mark Twain

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post

                  And those strikes are going deeper and deeper into Russia.
                  Haven't looked into it myself but I assume electrical substations in Moscow and other large cities are protected from the elements or otherwise built/located so they're hard to get to?

                  Just asking for a friend.
                  Last edited by Monash; 19 Mar 24,, 00:01.
                  If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Monash View Post

                    Haven't looked into it myself but I assume electrical substations in Moscow and other large cities are protected from the elements or otherwise built/located so they're hard to get to?

                    Just asking for a friend.
                    I have no clue. But if they weren't wouldn't be surprised.
                    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                    Mark Twain

                    Comment


                    • To be honest, I'd be willing to endure higher prices at the pump in the short term to see Russia's oil and gas infrastructure crippled. Whether gas is, $3, 4, or even 5/gallon isn't going to affect my financial bottom line that much. I'm not sure the American electorate will like it though in a presidential election year. Rising gas prices in an election year are always terrible for the incumbent party. And unfortunately, Republicans winning are a worst case scenario for Ukraine. If only other producers could step in to more than offset Russian production losses...

                      US has urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, FT reports

                      March 22 (Reuters) - The United States has urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, warning that drone strikes risk provoking retaliation and driving up global oil prices, the Financial Times reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

                      The attacks helped boost oil prices that have risen nearly 4% so far since March 12, when Ukraine first started targeting Russia's energy infrastructure. A further rally in gasoline prices in the United States would weaken President Joe Biden ratings and undermine his re-election chances.
                      https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ts-2024-03-22/
                      Last edited by Ironduke; 22 Mar 24,, 11:37.
                      "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
                        To be honest, I'd be willing to endure higher prices at the pump in the short term to see Russia's oil and gas infrastructure crippled. Whether gas is, $3, 4, or even 5/gallon isn't going to affect my financial bottom line that much. I'm not sure the American electorate will like it though in a presidential election year. Rising gas prices in an election year are always terrible for the incumbent party. And unfortunately, Republicans winning are a worst case scenario for Ukraine. If only other producers could step in to more than offset Russian production losses...


                        https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ts-2024-03-22/
                        I'm with you there but of course the blame for those prices would fall on Biden. Americans today have very little idea what bite the bullet means when it comes to a little sacrifice.

                        Comment


                        • Russia struck the hydroelectric dam in Dnipro last night. There are claims a million are without power, and the dam has completely stopped producing electricity.

                          https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-68637596

                          Meanwhile, dozens have been reported killed in a terror attack at a concert hall near Moscow, being claimed by ISIS. Maybe this was the terror attack the US was warning about on March 8th. Could be the plotters postponed their attack after the warning.

                          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY1ODR-h8zM
                          Last edited by Ironduke; 22 Mar 24,, 23:55.
                          "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
                            Russia struck the hydroelectric dam in Dnipro last night. There are claims a million are without power, and the dam has completely stopped producing electricity.

                            https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-68637596

                            Meanwhile, dozens have been reported killed in a terror attack at a concert hall near Moscow, being claimed by ISIS. Maybe this was the terror attack the US was warning about on March 8th. Could be the plotters postponed their attack after the warning.

                            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY1ODR-h8zM
                            The latest from BBC is that there were three attackers, and that they got away in in a van!
                            Definitely not a good day to be a Muslim; hell or even look like one, walking the streets of Moscow!
                            There are already comparisons being made to the Chechen terrorist attacks, some years back in Russia.
                            About, how Putin used them to tighten his grip on power.
                            But that’s kind ‘a moot isn’t it? Hasn’t he already got all the power he can use?
                            Or, is there some more to be gained by declaring a State of Emergency?’



                            When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

                            Comment


                            • Comparisons are bound to be made, but ISIS-K has officially claimed to be behind the attack.
                              "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
                                Comparisons are bound to be made, but ISIS-K has officially claimed to be behind the attack.
                                Ok then, we’ll go with ISIS… for now!
                                But I’ll bet you dollars to doughnuts, that sooner or later the Kremlin will shift responsibility or blame, or whatever, to the West; or better yet Ukraine!!!

                                When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

                                Comment

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