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Russo-Ukrainian war: Strategic and economic theatres

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  • Originally posted by Bigfella View Post

    Keep in mind that disgraceful as those people are, they are a relatively small percentage of the people in the House, which is the chamber at issue here (the Senate having not only a Dem majority, but solid Republican support for Ukraine too). Not only is there a clear majority among Republicans in support of Ukraine, but there is near enough to total support from Democrats. Theoretically it would take less than 10 Republicans to side with Democrats to pass a bill in the house. I doubt it will come to that, but I think it highly likely that there will be support across the aisle for future aid to Ukraine. That should roughly be the situation for the next two years, which will hopefully be long enough to come to some resolution in Ukraine.
    The latest CBS/YouGov poll show a slight majority of Republicans want to scale back Ukraine aid, 52 to 48 percent.
    Last edited by Triple C; 12 Jan 23,, 21:30.
    All those who are merciful with the cruel will come to be cruel to the merciful.
    -Talmud Kohelet Rabbah, 7:16.

    Comment


    • I take back any nice things I said about Germany "quiet" support. They're back to being massive dick-wads.

      No Leopards For Ukraine- WSJ 1/18/23
      "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
      "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

      Comment


      • Originally posted by S2 View Post
        I take back any nice things I said about Germany "quiet" support. They're back to being massive dick-wads.

        No Leopards For Ukraine- WSJ 1/18/23
        Might not be a definitive decision - if the US agrees to provide Abrams. How about this instead. NATO members with Leopards all send some (not all) to Ukraine, including Germany and then the US backfills the NATO members with some Abrams. The advantage is Ukraine only has to deal with one new system not two which simplifies logistics. The downside of course is that Abrams gets a toe hold in European in markets that were previously Rheinmetall's. Mind you Rheinmetall also have the new KF51 'Panther' to push to market. So thinning out existing stocks of Leopard's might leave them in a position to run the Panther in competition against the Abrams for future contracts.

        Just rumination on a solution BTW.
        Last edited by Monash; 19 Jan 23,, 23:10.
        If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Monash View Post
          Just rumination on a solution BTW.
          Germany's no-go stops any LEO II owners from shipping those tanks to the UKR.

          Chimo

          Comment


          • As Ironduke has written in another post, Poland apparently has decided to ship the Leopards,
            irrespective of German obstructionisms!
            When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Amled View Post
              As Ironduke has written in another post, Poland apparently has decided to ship the Leopards,
              irrespective of German obstructionisms!
              Poland can ship the tanks, The problem is support for the tank. There are support/components that only Germany can provide.

              Comment


              • Norway wants to buy dozens of new Leopard 2 tanks

                MILAN, Italy — The Norwegian Ministry of Defense put an end to months of speculation, confirming at a Feb. 3 press conference that the government has selected the German Leopard 2A7 as the country’s next main battle tank over a South Korean contender, the K2 Black Panther.

                Norway’s Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram said his agency is eying 54 of the Krauss-Maffei Wegmann-made tanks in the 2A7 variant. The weapons would arrive in 2026, with the option to procure 18 more.

                The decision today amounts to a political announcement on the selected tank type. An industry deal has yet to be signed, though government officials have been pursing negotiations with both tanks’ manufacturers in parallel during technical trials.

                Norway’s program for new tanks is worth 19.7 Norwegian crowns, or $1.93 billion, according to a defense spokesperson.

                Leaders in Oslo announced on Jan. 25 that Norway would donate some of its older Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine. As such, ensuring that the new tanks are rolled out on time will be critical for the country to maintain the training level and capabilities of its armed forces.

                The manufacturing of new tanks, including Leopards, has come into sharp focus recently, as European nations have pledged old stocks and slivers of their active arsenals to help Ukraine.

                Nicholas Drummond, a strategic advisor to KMW in the U.K., told Defense News that the company’s production capacity in Germany still has plenty of slack. “Norway is the first of several new expected orders for new-build Leopard 2A7 tanks,” he said. “Previously, at the height of the Cold War, KWM was able to produce 16 tanks a month, today it is producing much less than that, but it still has the same amount of floor space.”

                Drummond pointed out that bottlenecks lie in the supply chain rather in the manufacturing process itself.


                One year ago, Norway had begun a four-week Arctic assessment to evaluate both tank contenders that included extensive mobility and firing trials alongside harsh climate conditions and snow-covered terrain. At the time, the MoD stated in a press release that officials were looking to guarantee that the contestants possessed “technical features” that would ensure they could survive against Russian forces’ armored vehicles.

                The German manufacturer of the Leopard 2, which is the standard main battle tank for most of Europe, has faced increased competition from Korea’s willingness to transfer technology and localize production in European countries. Poland is an example where the government inked significant contracts with South Korea’s Hyundai Rotem and Hanwha Defense for the production of 1,000 K2 tanks and 672 K9 self-propelled howitzers.
                ____________
                “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                Comment


                • And about time to!

                  Reuters is reporting that as part of a new 2 billion USD assistance package Ukraine is to be provided with a new, longer ranged land attack system - the ground launched small diameter bomb (GLSDB). The system will have almost double the strike range of HIMARS!

                  https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ne-2023-02-03/

                  SAAB is apparently the manufacturer. The link below is to their spiel on the system. From a quick glace it looks to be more vulnerable to interception than ACTAMs would be but is potentially highly accurate and has at least some bunker busting capability. So definitely a move in the right direction. IF they get enough of them of course.

                  https://www.saab.com/products/ground...ter-bomb-glsdb
                  Last edited by Monash; 04 Feb 23,, 06:13.
                  If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                  Comment


                  • Europe bans Russian diesel, other oil products over Ukraine

                    FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Europe imposed a ban Sunday on Russian diesel fuel and other refined oil products, slashing energy dependency on Moscow and seeking to further crimp the Kremlin's fossil fuel earnings as punishment for invading Ukraine.

                    The ban comes along with a price cap agreed by the Group of Seven allied democracies. The goal is allowing Russian diesel to keep flowing to countries like China and India and avoiding a sudden price rise that would hurt consumers worldwide, while reducing the profits funding Moscow's budget and war.

                    Diesel is key for the economy because it is used to power cars, trucks carrying goods, farm equipment and factory machinery. Diesel prices have been elevated due to recovering demand after the COVID-19 pandemic and limits on refining capacity, contributing to inflation for other goods worldwide.

                    The new sanctions create uncertainty about prices as the 27-nation European Union finds new supplies of diesel from the U.S., Middle East and India to replace those from Russia, which at one point delivered 10% of Europe's total diesel needs. Those are longer journeys than from Russia's ports, stretching available tankers.

                    Prices also could be driven up by reviving demand from China as the economy rebounds after the end of draconian COVID-19 restrictions.

                    The price cap of $100 per barrel for diesel, jet fuel and gasoline is to be enforced by barring insurance and shipping services from handling diesel priced over the limit. Most of those companies are located in Western countries.

                    It follows a $60-per-barrel cap on Russian crude that took effect in December and is supposed to work the same way. Both the diesel and oil caps could be tightened later.

                    “Once we have these price caps set, we can squeeze the Russian price and deny them, deny (President Vladimir) Putin money for his war without a price spike that's going to hurt Western economies and developing economies,” said Thomas O'Donnell, a global fellow with the Washington-based Wilson Center.

                    The diesel price cap will not bite immediately because it was set at about what Russian diesel trades for. Russia’s chief problem now will be finding new customers, not evading the price ceiling. However, the cap aims to prevent Russian gains from any sudden price spikes in refined oil products.

                    Analysts say there might be a price bump initially as markets sort out the changes. But they say the embargo should not cause a price spike if the cap works as intended and Russian diesel keeps flowing to other countries.

                    Diesel fuel at the pump has been flat since the start of December, costing 1.80 euros per liter ($7.37 per gallon) as of Jan. 30, according to the weekly oil market report issued by the European Union’s executive commission. Pump prices in Germany, the EU’s largest economy, fell 2.6 cents to 1.83 euros per liter ($7.48 per gallon) as of Jan. 31.

                    The ban provides for a 55-day grace period for diesel loaded on tankers before Sunday, a step aimed at avoiding ruffling markets. European Union officials say importers have had time to adjust since the ban was announced in June.

                    Russia earned more than $2 billion from diesel sales to Europe in December alone as importers appear to have stocked up with added purchases ahead of the ban.

                    Europe has already banned Russian coal and most crude oil, while Moscow has cut off most shipments of natural gas.
                    ________
                    “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Monash View Post
                      Reuters is reporting that as part of a new 2 billion USD assistance package Ukraine is to be provided with a new, longer ranged land attack system - the ground launched small diameter bomb (GLSDB). The system will have almost double the strike range of HIMARS!
                      [...]
                      SAAB is apparently the manufacturer.
                      Saab is just the integrator of sorts. GLSDB uses old stockpiled rocket motors from M26 MLRS rockets that had been taken out of service due to their DPICM cluster warheads, and Saab has some sort of adapter to screw the SDB bombs on them instead. The longer range is due to the much smaller payload (SDB only weighs half as much as the cluster warhead) and its gliding ability.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by kato View Post
                        Saab is just the integrator of sorts. GLSDB uses old stockpiled rocket motors from M26 MLRS rockets that had been taken out of service due to their DPICM cluster warheads, and Saab has some sort of adapter to screw the SDB bombs on them instead. The longer range is due to the much smaller payload (SDB only weighs half as much as the cluster warhead) and its gliding ability.
                        Unfortunately for Ukraine it hasn't had any customers yet so there are no stockpiles and it isn't in mass production. So now the question is how long is it going to take to produce enough to make a significant contribution to Ukraine's war effort. This entire argument of supplying Ukriane with long range ground attack weapons is starting to become farcical. I get that ACTAMS are a very limited resource but the western allies must have some systems somewhere that A) has longer legs than HIMARs and B) is available in enough numbers to be useful. Not raining 'death from above' useful mind you just enough to take out important targets at a steady rate.
                        If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Monash View Post

                          Unfortunately for Ukraine it hasn't had any customers yet so there are no stockpiles and it isn't in mass production. So now the question is how long is it going to take to produce enough to make a significant contribution to Ukraine's war effort. This entire argument of supplying Ukriane with long range ground attack weapons is starting to become farcical. I get that ACTAMS are a very limited resource but the western allies must have some systems somewhere that A) has longer legs than HIMARs and B) is available in enough numbers to be useful. Not raining 'death from above' useful mind you just enough to take out important targets at a steady rate.
                          Not in US Army inventory currently. That is what GMLRS-ER is for currently and GLSDB is the projected materiel solution. Beyond that it's an Air Force/Navy mission with cruise missiles and air strikes.

                          “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                          Mark Twain

                          Comment


                          • Interesting report in the SMH on the state of the Russian economy and the accumulating impact of the various oil, gas and distillate embargo's etc. Basically even if the war ends this year the future prospects are 'not good'.

                            https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...07-p5cifq.html
                            Last edited by Monash; 08 Feb 23,, 04:42.
                            If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                            Comment


                            • Moscow's decades-old gas ties with Europe lie in ruins

                              NOVY URENGOY, Russia (Reuters) - Meticulously crafted over decades as a major revenue stream for the Kremlin, Moscow's gas trade with Europe is unlikely to recover from the ravages of military conflict.

                              After President Vladimir Putin's "special military operation" in Ukraine began almost a year ago, a combination of Western sanctions and Russia's decision to cut supplies to Europe drastically reduced the country's energy exports.

                              The latest sanctions, including price caps, are likely to disrupt oil trade further but it is easier to find new markets for crude and refined products than for gas.

                              Russia's gas trade with Europe has been based on thousands of miles of pipes beginning in Siberia and stretching to Germany and beyond. Until last year, they locked Western buyers into a long-term supply relationship.

                              "Of course, the loss of the European market is a very serious test for Russia in the gas aspect," Yury Shafranik, Russian fuel and energy minister from 1993 to 1996, told Reuters.

                              A former senior manager at Gazprom was more direct.

                              "The work of hundreds of people, who for decades built the exporting system, now has been flushed down the toilet," the former manager told Reuters on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals.

                              Current employees, however, say it is business as usual.

                              "Nothing has changed for us. We had a pay rise twice last year," a Gazprom's official, who is not authorised to speak to press, told Reuters in Novy Urengoy. The Arctic city is often referred to as Russia's "gas capital" because it was built to serve the biggest gas fields.

                              'STATE WITHIN A STATE'

                              The state gas export giant Gazprom, which has offices there, was formed in the dying days of the Soviet Union in 1989 under the Ministry of Gas Industry, headed by Viktor Chernomyrdin.

                              "Chernomyrdin never allowed anyone to put his nose into Gazprom. It was a state within a state, and remains so to an extent," Shafranik said.

                              Since the military operation began on Feb. 24 last year, less information has been available.

                              Like many Russian companies, Gazprom stopped disclosing details of its financial results.

                              According to Reuters' estimates, based on export fees and export volumes data, Gazprom's revenues from overseas sales were around $3.4 billion in January down from $6.3 billion in the same period last year.

                              The figures, combined with forecasts of exports and average gas prices, imply Gazprom's exporting revenues will almost halve this year, widening the $25 billion budget deficit Russia posted in January.

                              Already, the company's natural gas exports last year almost halved to reach a post-Soviet low and the downward trend has continued this year.

                              European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen estimated Russia cut 80% of gas supplies to the EU in the eight months after the conflict began in Ukraine.

                              As a result, Russia supplied only around 7.5% of western Europe's gas needs by the end of last year, compared with around 40% in 2021.

                              Before the conflict, Russia had been confident of selling more to Europe, not less.

                              Elena Burmistrova, the head of Gazprom's exporting unit, told an industry event in Vienna in 2019 the company's record-high exports outside Soviet Union of more than 200 billion cubic metres (bcm) achieved in 2018 were the "new reality".

                              Last year, the total was just above 100 bcm.

                              Russia's transporting capacities were undermined last year after mysterious blasts in the Baltic Sea at the Nord Stream pipelines from Russia to Germany. Russia and the West blamed each other for the blasts.

                              Pulitzer Prize-winning U.S. reporter Seymour Hersh in a blog said the United States was responsible, which the United States said was 'utterly false'.

                              Washington has long criticised Germany's policy of reliance on Russian energy, which until last year, Berlin had said was a means to improve relations.

                              THE DEAL OF THE 20TH-CENTURY

                              For his part, Putin had been seeking to diversify Russia's gas markets long before last year, but the policy has gathered momentum.

                              In October, he mooted an idea of a gas hub in Turkey to divert the Russian gas flows from the Baltic Sea and North-West Europe.

                              Russia is also seeking to boost its pipeline gas sales to China, the world's largest energy consumer and top buyer of crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal.

                              Supplies began via the Power of Siberia Pipeline in late 2019 and Russia aims to raise the annual exports to around 38 bcm from 2025.

                              Moscow also has an agreement with Beijing for another 10 bcm per year from a yet-to-be built pipeline from the Pacific island of Sakhalin, while Russia is also developing plans for Power of Siberia 2 from Western Siberia, which in theory could supply an additional 50 bcm per year to China.

                              Whether that relationship can be as lucrative as the decades of supplying gas to Europe remains to be seen.

                              Gazprom's most important assets are located in West Siberia and in the wider Arctic Yamal region, where the 100,000-strong city of Novy Urengoy, which celebrates its 50th-anniversary in 2025, houses seasonal workers in utilitarian, high-rise blocks.

                              One of the fields in the tundra area, around 3,500 kilometres (2,175 miles) northeast of Moscow, where they work is Urengoy.

                              Following the discovery of the field, which is among the world's largest in 1966, the Soviet Politburo began talks with Western Germany on exchanging gas for pipes, as Russia then lacked production technology.

                              The resulting agreement, dubbed the "contract of the century" was finalised in 1970 after the then Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko, nicknamed "Mr Nyet" in the West for his uncompromising approach, said "da" to the gas-for-pipes deal, which involved supplies of heavy equipment for Moscow as well as gas for Europe.

                              The 20-year supply deal is worth about $30 billion in current gas prices.

                              It meant that for decades, Europe and, especially Germany, benefited from relatively cheap, long-term contracts, and relied on Russian natural gas, or methane, for heating households and as a feedstock for the petrochemical industry.

                              COMPLEX NEGOTIATIONS AHEAD

                              The negotiations with China on new gas sales are expected to be complex, not least because China is not expected to need additional gas until after 2030, industry analysts said.

                              Russia also faces far more competition than in the past from renewable energy as the world seeks to limit the impact of climate change, as well as rival pipeline gas supplies to China, including from Turkmenistan.

                              LNG, which can be shipped anywhere in the world, has further reduced the need for pipeline gas.

                              Gazprom and China have kept their agreed gas price a secret. Ron Smith, analyst at Moscow-based BCS brokerage, expected the price for 2022 to average $270 per 1,000 cubic metres, much lower than prices in Europe.

                              It is also below Gazprom's export price of $700 per 1,000 cubic metres, expected by Russian Economy Ministry this year.

                              Last year, Russia's energy finances, which are not broken down publicly into oil and gas, were supported by the market impact of fears of shortage.

                              In Europe, gas prices hit record levels and international oil prices shortly after the special military operation began spiked close to their all-time high.

                              Since then, prices for gas and oil have eased and Western price caps introduced in December and early this year are designed to erode Russia's revenues further.

                              The Kremlin meanwhile has set Gazprom the mammoth task of building 24,000 kilometres of new pipelines to provide gas for 538,000 households and apartments in Russia from 2021 to 2025.

                              Domestic gas prices are regulated by the government and there have been discussions about liberalising the gas market, a sensitive issue for Russian households.

                              Back in Novy Urengoy, where temperatures fall to as low as almost minus 50 Celsius (minus 58 Fahrenheit), Achimgaz, a joint venture between Gazprom and Germany's Wintershall Dea, also has offices and the flag of Austrian energy company OMV flaps outside an administrative building.

                              Asked about its presence there, an OMV spokesperson said only the building housed offices of the operator of the Yuzhno-Russkoye field, where the company has a stake.

                              OMV in March scrapped plans to take a stake in a Gazprom gas field project, while Wintershall Dea, in which BASF holds just under 73% percent, said last month it was pulling outof Russia.

                              The Gazprom official who spoke on condition of anonymity said the company will regret that.

                              "We will just have to use more gas for our domestic households instead of exporting it to Europe. China also needs gas," the official said.
                              ___________

                              Hey, wasn't Germany supposed to be shivering in the dark by now? Whatever happened to that?
                              “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                                ..... Hey, wasn't Germany supposed to be shivering in the dark by now? Whatever happened to that?
                                Well if the cost's associated Putin's 'special military operation' do force him to deregulate the domestic gas market I can certainly see millions of poor Russians 'shivering in the dark' in the not to distant future.
                                If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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