Russo-Ukrainian war: Strategic and economic theatres

[Officer of Engineers]

operationally, this means the Ukrainians must be made more capable of maneuver under sustained opposition. the shortening of Russian lines means that replaying the smash-in at Kharkiv won't be likely.

You and I both know that until the lines reaches stalemate for a period of months despite heavy actions on both sides, there won't be a peace. Until both sides are tired of bleeding for inches, any talk of negotiation is premature. Moscow don't have enough blood to take Kiev and it's a pipe dream for Kiev to take back 2014 borders. And even then, it would be a low intensity conflict rather than an actual peace.

[astralis]

Moscow don't have enough blood to take Kiev and it's a pipe dream for Kiev to take back 2014 borders.

the first is already obvious, the second is not yet so.

And for the time being, the Ukrainians have significantly higher willpower, plus they’ve lost less military power to begin with. So they have more time and space to gamble the iron dice. Russia is probably two major operational disasters away from losing this war.

[Officer of Engineers]

the first is already obvious, the second is not yet so.

And for the time being, the Ukrainians have significantly higher willpower, plus they’ve lost less military power to begin with. So they have more time and space to gamble the iron dice. Russia is probably two major operational disasters away from losing this war.

There's no insurgency in Crimea, LNR, and DNR, indicating a complete lack of local support for Kiev. This raises an obvious point. Could Kiev afford a Crimean, LNR, and DNR insurgencies? The point remains. A low intensity conflict.

[astralis]

Honestly if we get to the stage where we’re worrying about LNR/DNR/Crimea insurgencies, that means Ukraine has won the war.

After the type of losses Ukraine has eaten in this war, insurgencies are pretty small fry…especially given how LNR/DNR have pretty much been denuded of men due to Russia using them as meat shields. Even Igor Girkin, the guy who led the 2014 fighting, says as much.

All the swinging dicks have already volunteered or been mobilized already. If and when the Russians are beaten, there will probably be another exodus of the remainder, before Ukrainian military and secret services show up. And I doubt those guys, after Bucha and Kharkiv, will be very merciful, EU human rights be damned.

That’s the thing about rolling the iron dice, tends to burn a lot of the gray zone assets that would otherwise not be touched.

[Monash]

There's no insurgency in Crimea, LNR, and DNR, indicating a complete lack of local support for Kiev. .....

Which is also an argument for letting Russia keep what, are in the end impoverished, rust bucket regions that every educated, pro-western citizen have already fled and where mostly pro-Moscow ones remain. Ukraine would probably be best off focusing of liberating all of the Kherson & Zaporizhzhia Obalsts while Putin tries to hold on to his 'prizes' i.e. Crimea and dregs of the Dombass he already occupies.

[Officer of Engineers]

Honestly if we get to the stage where we’re worrying about LNR/DNR/Crimea insurgencies, that means Ukraine has won the war.

A major power backer in Russian safe areas launching attacks to their homes. Yeah, I'm not going to want that one. North Vietnam would be a child's play in comparison. It would be a repeat of the Sino-VN border with one major power going nowhere that outman, outgun, outspend, and outlast the smaller power, despite the fact that the smaller power outposition and outmaneuver the major power.

[Albany Rifles]

In some of the least surprising news...

Nord Stream pipeline: Explosive traces found, indicating 'gross sabotage,' Sweden says | CNN Business

Explosive traces found at Nord Stream pipeline indicate ‘gross sabotage,’ Sweden says


By Lindsay Isaac and Sophie Tanno, CNN
Updated 2:43 PM EST, Fri November 18, 2022

A large disturbance in the sea is seen off the coast of the Danish island of Bornholm on Tuesday, September 27. Western nations have said leaks in two Russian gas pipelines, Nord Stream 1 and 2, are likely the result of sabotage. Both of the pipelines, created to funnel gas from Russia into the European Union, run under the Baltic Sea near Denmark and Sweden.Danish Defence Command/Forsvaret Ritzau Scanpix/Reuters
The blasts at the Nord Stream pipeline in September were caused by an act of sabotage, Swedish prosecutors said Friday after evidence of explosives was discovered at the sites by investigators.

In a statement, Mats Ljungqvist, the prosecutor leading the preliminary investigation, described the incident as “gross sabotage,” adding that “traces of explosives” were found at the scene.

The preliminary investigation will continue and has yet to determine any charges, the statement said. The prosecutor’s office declined to give further comment, Reuters reported.

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Swedish and Danish authorities have been investigating four holes in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines which link Russia and Germany via the Baltic Sea.



Both pipelines have been flashpoints in an escalating energy war between European capitals and Moscow that has pummeled major Western economies, sent gas prices soaring and sparked a hunt for alternative energy supplies since Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

Western nations have previously said that the leaks, which were first discovered on September 26, were likely the result of sabotage. Denmark last month said a preliminary investigation had shown they were caused by powerful explosions.

The United States was last month considering offering the use of its most advanced underwater sound reading capabilities to analyze audio recordings from around the time of the incidents, CNN reported in October.

The US Navy’s processing of the sonar signatures – the term for the unique underwater sounds – provided by Sweden and Denmark could boost the investigations by providing a more detailed picture of what was in the area when the incidents occurred and what caused them, sources familiar with the matter said.

While many countries have the capability to process underwater sounds, the US has the most advanced system, sources said.

Nord Stream pipelines 1 and 2 were created to funnel gas from Russia into the European Union, and were controversial long before Russia waged war on Ukraine.

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The pipelines have given Russia significant leverage over Europe. But until this year, European countries have been reluctant to wean themselves off Russian energy given the potential for rising prices.

The damage to the pipelines has become yet another twist in the energy standoff that erupted after Russia’s invasion, and which has only been deepening in the nearly nine months since.

[Amled]

As you say no surprise!
So now the question arises: who?
Well, no surprise my nomination is Russia! As to why, the simplest of all motives: money!
The Nord Stream pipelines were meant to funnel Natural Gas from Russia to Europe,
and in return funnel oodles of hard western currency back to Russia.
But with the sanctions, what had been cash cows turned into money pits.
They still needed maintenance, even though they were not producing.
With all the signs being that they wouldn’t be taken in use again.
So, what does a rational pragmatic farmer do when his cash cow no longer produces?
It’s put down!
That’s what the pipelines were! Put down!

[Albany Rifles]

A Canadian company uses rapid prototyping and COTS items to build armored cars for Ukraine.

https://youtu.be/Colcp_UuVVc

[Monash]

A Canadian company uses rapid prototyping and COTS items to build armored cars for Ukraine.

https://youtu.be/Colcp_UuVVc

Like the video but notice that nothing was said about mine protection in the report so I assume its absent.

[Albany Rifles]

Like the video but notice that nothing was said about mine protection in the report so I assume its absent.

Yeah, you can tell by the shape of the hull it isn't built as an MRAP. But better than driving around in a Helix.

[Monash]

Yeah, you can tell by the shape of the hull it isn't built as an MRAP. But better than driving around in a Helix.

You'd think they could do something to reinforce the floor of the crew compartment even if it does increase overall height profile of the vehicle.

[Officer of Engineers]

Would add weight and shift Centre-of-Gravity (needs minimum clearance to channel blast), making the vehicle prone to tipping. At the end of the day, it's a supped up Ford F-150, there's only so much you can do to the chasis without redesigning the frame.

It's not an IFV but people will keep using it as one.

[Gun Grape]

Yeah, you can tell by the shape of the hull it isn't built as an MRAP. But better than driving around in a Helix.

Nothing is better than riding around in a Hilux (Tacoma).

But as the old saying goes "Better the 60% solution today then the 100% solution next year"

[Albany Rifles]

Nothing is better than riding around in a Hilux (Tacoma).

But as the old saying goes "Better the 60% solution today then the 100% solution next year"

You got it Gunny. Don't let perfect be the enemy of good enough.