Russo-Ukrainian war: Strategic and economic theatres

[Officer of Engineers]

"MY point was and is that the Ukrainian asking price for abandoning their nuclear arsenal"

SO you are conflating nuclear with missile technology.

Thought so. Well missile technology theft has continued long after 1994.

Nukes, Colonel. We're talking about nukes. China didn't need help there. The agreements received by Ukraine weren't worth the paper written on as it turned out. Security guaranteed? Evidently not.

What? We do not separate nuclear delivery vehicles from nuclear weapons when speaking of arms control. The last nuclear arms control treaty between Russia and the US counts nuclear delivery vehicles, not warhead numbers. This essentially means that both sides could add 100s of warheads more than the previous treaty while the ability to deliver them has been reduced. There was nothing stopping the Ukrainians from selling their ICBMs to a N5 member just as there was nothing stopping the US from selling SLBMs to the British but are forbidden to sell them to non N5 members under the NPT. There is nothing illegal about Ukraine selling nuclear delivery vehicles to China ... unless we bought them first.

And BTW, yes, the Chinese still need help with nukes. Their smallest warhead is a theft of the American W10 which only one can fit into their newest ICBMs. Both Russia and the US have smaller warheads (and by extension, so had the Ukrainians).

[Officer of Engineers]

Finally the Budapest Memorandum is a Memorandum, not a treaty. You're right. It wasn't worth the paper it was written on. Otherwise, it would have been at least a treaty but the money. Russia forgave the entire Ukrainian energy debt (3.2 $bil) at that time and the US spent $12bil to buy the warhead uranium. It wasn't security guarrantees. It was the money.

[S2]

"I simply cannot see this process going on while in the middle of a war, in a war of national survival no less."

I can. While complex, this is the work of junior ministers and parliamentarian aides. Discussions within and without initiated so issues are identified, defined and addressed. There's a lot of work that can be accomplished now and no reason to not initiate the process. If Ukraine will not undertake the necessary steps, so be it. If, however, they start laying the groundwork, in concert with NATO, even while martial law exists then much can be done before Russia is ejected from Ukraine.

Once Russia is ejected from Ukraine, there will be a window of continuing vulnerability for Ukraine. Without NATO, Russia will attack with impunity at the next earliest opportunity. With NATO in place, Russia might still attack...

But I'm betting not. So would anybody else who believes Ukraine belongs in NATO. Ukraine is currently more corrupt than Turkey. But not by much and NATO has lived for decades with Turkey's contentious shit. Ukraine, unlike Turkey, seems full of determination to play straight and be fully democratic. Given peace and security, you're talking a potential powerhouse of economic and democratic energy. That should be the goal of the west.

"Hey Russia, this could be you...if you weren't so stupid."

[Monash]

"It also puts pressure on Ukraine to play by NATO/EU rules should a future Ukrainian government ever decide it wanted to reclaim more of the 'motherland' from Russia. Knowing it was on its own it tried to go down that path would act as a significant deterrent to any future such adventurism."

Seems a misplaced concern unless you expect Ukraine to give up SOME of its lands to Russia? I've not heard of Nova Ukraini. Is Ukraine inclined to march on Rostov? Is Ukraine "adventurous"? Maybe Prigozhin is correct to put in those defense lines up in Kursk.

Then we let them BOTH into NATO?

I merely making an assumption at this point that at least some of the Ukrainian territory seized by Russia to date will have to remain in it's hands as part of any peace settlement. Otherwise what's in it for Putin? The dog as to be thrown some sort of bone. I don't like the idea BTW but while a treaty would have to include 3rd party (Western) carrots like the release of seized Russian funds and slowly reducing sanctions etc the chief belligerent from Russia's standpoint remains Ukraine. As of now Putin's continued existence depends on him having something (anything) positive to show out of what has otherwise proven to be a monumental, nation crippling mistake on his part. If not territory then what else would he have to show for this giant CF.

Sans a peace deal the only other logical alternative at this point would be for both sides to continue fighting until one side or other is exhausted (or MAGA Republicans seize the White House).

[Officer of Engineers]

Once Russia is ejected from Ukraine, there will be a window of continuing vulnerability for Ukraine.

Why? Why Kiev cannot demand NATO protection? Ukraine becomes a NATO protectorate. Kiev is demanding as much. Kiev will not ask for NATO membership in the near future but NATO protection is non-negotiable. This is currently Zelensky's offer to Putin. I like this idea. Bypass the political hot mess, lawyer infighting, to straight military benefits without legal straitjacket.

"Hey Russia, this could be you...if you weren't so stupid."

*** Looking at the Trump crowd *** We're not without our stupid.

[tbm3fan]

I merely making an assumption at this point that at least some of the Ukrainian territory seized by Russia to date will have to remain in it's hands as part of any peace settlement. Otherwise what's in it for Putin? The dog as to be thrown some sort of bone. I don't like the idea BTW but while a treaty would have to include 3rd party (Western) carrots like the release seized Russian funds and slowly reducing sanctions etc the chief belligerent from Russia's standpoint remains Ukraine. As of now Putin's continued existence depends on having something to show for what has otherwise proven to be a monumental, nation crippling mistake on his part. If not territory what else would he have to show for this giant CF.

Sans a peace deal the only other logical alternative at this point would be for both sides to continue fighting until one side or other is exhausted (or MAGA Republicans seize the White House).

I take the opposite view. Russia cannot be rewarded for her aggression and given the way Russian reason and lies work she will feel that she won something for little cost. Soldiers are little cost from the cowered public while the leaders profited one way or the other. She will then assume she can do it again elsewhere to reconstitute the Russian Empire she feels she rightfully deserves. Also Russia also cannot be allowed to profit from being allowed to rejoin the Western economy where civilized nations live. She deserves to be sent to the dog house.

[Monash]

I take the opposite view. Russia cannot be rewarded for her aggression and given the way Russian reason and lies work she will feel that she won something for little cost. Soldiers are little cost from the cowered public while the leaders profited one way or the other. She will then assume she can do it again elsewhere to reconstitute the Russian Empire she feels she rightfully deserves. Also Russia also cannot be allowed to profit from being allowed to rejoin the Western economy where civilized nations live. She deserves to be sent to the dog house.

If the war has proved anything it's that Russia doesn't have the military capability to achieve military victory against even a properly supported mid sized nation. Putin's objectives at the start of the campaign, in no particular order were to prevent Ukraine joining NATO, impose a new government and force it to join a political union with Russia. Whatever settlement there is Putin will have failed on all counts. Not only will Ukraine join NATO (eventually), so will Finland and Sweden. Ukraine will also eventually gain entry to the EU and will continue to have pro western democratically elected government. At best Russia can hope to retain Crimea and those parts of the Dombass it already occupies which are nothing but denuded rust belts of no economic value to anyone. Russia will have to spend billions of rubles to reverse that (if it can find them) which will be hard since it will remain a economic pariah as far as the west is concerned.

Its armed forces have been humiliated and its arms industry will continue to lose major customers as the short comings in Russian technology and doctrine becomes obvious. Ukraine has already won the war. Giving up some territory (as much as I dislike the idea) ends the fighting and lets it rebuild. Russia will never be able to regain all it has lost, politically, militarily or economically.

[S2]

"I merely making an assumption at this point that at least some of the Ukrainian territory seized by Russia to date will have to remain in it's hands as part of any peace settlement. Otherwise what's in it for Putin..?"

"Merely?" Have you let the Ukrainians know? What additional chunk of their land would you recommend?

"I don't like the idea BTW..."

I'm starting to wonder. You worry a lot about Russia.

"The dog as to be thrown some sort of bone..."

That dog is rabid and needs shooting.

[Monash]

"I merely making an assumption at this point that at least some of the Ukrainian territory seized by Russia to date will have to remain in it's hands as part of any peace settlement. Otherwise what's in it for Putin..?"

"Merely?" Have you let the Ukrainians know? What additional chunk of their land would you recommend?

"I don't like the idea BTW..."

I'm starting to wonder. You worry a lot about Russia.

"The dog as to be thrown some sort of bone..."

That dog is rabid and needs shooting.

And whose going to do the shooting pray tell? Except perhaps another Russian? Which in this case, at this point in time has a high probability of leading to someone even worse that Putin ending up in charge. Also I don't 'worry' about Russia I simply see no quick end to the war and the suffering it has inflicted on Ukraine absent a peace treaty of some kind. Given Russia initiated this conflict my concern for the average Russian citizen affected by the war (including the poor bastards who have been press ganged into fighting it) comes a long second behind my concern for Ukraine's suffering.

Make no mistake, I want a strong, prosperous, democratic Ukraine in the EU and NATO asap, end of story. And if I had any confidence that the US and Allied western support for Ukraine would continue indefinitely my opinion on the issue of territorial integrity might be different but I don't. There's a US election in 2 years in case you haven't noticed and my confidence that Republicans will show the same level of support for Ukraine that the Democrats have is, if not zero somewhat approaching it. The clock is ticking.

[tbm3fan]

Russia will never be able to regain all it has lost, politically, militarily or economically.

You are assuming Russian leaders think logically. At least what the west thinks is logically. Watch Perun's latest on lies and how it impacts Russian life and now it's culture. The basic idea is that without honest information flowing upwards, instead of lies, Russia is stuck acting the way it is acting until that, if ever, changes. They are like a Royal family in that things are so inbred into their genetics over the last eight decades.

[Officer of Engineers]

You are assuming Russian leaders think logically.

I'm assuming that the logic of zero ammunition says their delusions of grandeur mean squat.

[tbm3fan]

Kremlin spokesman says that Kherson is Russian territory. How does one start any negotiations when they think that?

[astralis]

what the Russians can "accept" or "think" has been proven, well, extremely malleable.

they passed their bullshit legislation, as part of negotiations they can very well pass more bullshit legislation undoing it.

but yeah, we're not at that point yet. it essentially requires another major disaster for the Russkis before they will even think about the prospect of negotiations -- and the disaster can't just be land (Kherson), it must involve a ton of Russian dead or better yet, POWs.

operationally, this means the Ukrainians must be made more capable of maneuver under sustained opposition. the shortening of Russian lines means that replaying the smash-in at Kharkiv won't be likely.

[tbm3fan]

I'm assuming that the logic of zero ammunition says their delusions of grandeur mean squat.

They may have no ammunition at the front but on paper, being passed up the chain of command, they might think they do just like they think they excel at all their training exercises.

[Monash]

You are assuming Russian leaders think logically. At least what the west thinks is logically. Watch Perun's latest on lies and how it impacts Russian life and now it's culture. The basic idea is that without honest information flowing upwards, instead of lies, Russia is stuck acting the way it is acting until that, if ever, changes. They are like a Royal family in that things are so inbred into their genetics over the last eight decades.

Saw Perun's post yesterday. Good as always. I would simply note that the endemic culture of 'Vranyo' he refers to reinforces the point I was making earlier about the inability of the Russia to recover from the disaster they have walked themselves into.