Russo-Ukrainian war: Strategic and economic theatres

[Monash]

"...Sooner or later, they [Ukraine]only have themselves..."

.....I don't want to welcome Russia back into the family of nations...as is. They are a remorseless enemy as constituted, and must be treated as such.

Don't agree with this last bit I'm afraid. Oh there's no question Russia is a lost cause while Putin et al are in charge and it would require major (popular) political reform for that to happen. Under normal circumstances that day would be never but the deeper Russia digs itself into a hole economically & financially courtesy of ongoing sanctions and political isolation the more time there is for that to happen. If nothing else the elites want they're yachts and London residences back.

Point is if/when there is a chance for real change in Russia the west should do what it can to encourage it. Far better for the world as a whole to have Russia inside the EU/NATO tent pissing out than in China's.

[S2]

"Don't agree with this last bit I'm afraid..."

Gosh...not sure what your objection would be then. I'm confident you read "...as is". If not, did you catch "as constituted"?

I think it'll be an entirely other discussion about the chance for a liberal, western leaning political force to emerge within Russia. I'd sure like somebody to trace the pathway to something like that. Without it?

A remorseless, proven enemy.

"...Far better for the world as a whole to have Russia inside the EU/NATO tent pissing out..."

Hope we can squeeze Ukraine in first.

[Officer of Engineers]

It must be "later". Ukraine is ten years of PEACE from a self-sustaining internal armaments industry, maybe akin to Israel, able to build fully-modernized systems across the full spectrum of aerospace and ground. Naval systems are still the domain of a select few but, even there, Ukraine might be a (distant) future candidate. Many Soviet naval platforms had their origins in Ukraine IIRC.

Or they can do what the Afghans and the Chechens did, bleed the Russians dry. You cannot convince me that Kiev could not duplicate what the Afghans and the Chechens did and both did it with a fraction of the industries and armaments Kiev currently have. The Ukrainians have not even begun an insurgency yet. Hell, they did not even begin an insurgency in the LNR and DNR. Why?

Shame we convinced Ukraine to negotiate away its trump card for "security assurances" back in 1994.

The history says otherwise. It was Kiev who sold their nuclear arsenal to the highest bidder and the truth was that no one single nation could afford the asking price. It took 3 countries (UK, US, and Russia) to pay Kiev off to dismantle their unaffordable arsenal so that they won't sell it to someone else. Be advised, the Ukrainian nuclear arsenal was up for sale. If it ain't us, it would have been the Chinese ... or the Iranians and North Koreans.

The Ukrainians will win. There is zero doubt about that. They may not recover 2014 borders. In fact, they won't. The lack of insurgencies in those areas mean there is no local support. No seas of locals who side with Kiev but Russia will not occupy anywhere where the locals who would rather outbleed them than to live under Moscow's yoke.

[Monash]

"Don't agree with this last bit I'm afraid..."

Gosh...not sure what your objection would be then. I'm confident you read "...as is". If not, did you catch "as constituted"?

I think it'll be an entirely other discussion about the chance for a liberal, western leaning political force to emerge within Russia. I'd sure like somebody to trace the pathway to something like that. Without it?

A remorseless, proven enemy.

"...Far better for the world as a whole to have Russia inside the EU/NATO tent pissing out..."

Hope we can squeeze Ukraine in first.

I would be very surprised if any peace treaty did not include the right of Ukraine to apply for and be accepted into both the EU and NATO. Failure to do so would just leave the gates open to Russia's next authoritarian leader to try and dominate if not invade the country again. Once inside the NATO tent that option is off the table. It also puts pressure on Ukraine to play by NATO/EU rules should a future Ukrainian government ever decide it wanted to reclaim more of the 'motherland' from Russia. Knowing it was on its own it tried to go down that path would act as a significant deterrent to any future such adventurism.

[S2]

"...You cannot convince me that Kiev could not duplicate what the Afghans and the Chechens did "

Couldn't convince me either. Bigger question, will Ukraine have to duplicate the Afghans? That means we allowed, along with Ukraine, the capture of their entire nation. That would entirely and unnecessarily suck.

"Be advised, the Ukrainian nuclear arsenal was up for sale. If it ain't us, it would have been the Chinese ... or the Iranians and North Koreans."

It really wasn't a seller's market with Belarus and Kazach weapons also out there. In fact, these guys (Arms Control Association) didn't even mention nefarious third-party buyers-

Arms Control Association-Ukraine Nuclear Disarmament

Only you did. Anyway, the security assurances weren't met, were they?

[Officer of Engineers]

Kiev is NOT eligible for NATO membership no matter what the circumstance would be. They just do not meet our democratic and judicial standards. Kiev has at least years of reforms that needs to be done before membership could even be consider. What can happen, however, is that Kiev can become a NATO protectorate, much like Kosovo but no NATO soldier would answer to an Ukrainian General just as no NATO soldier cares what a Kosovar General has to say.

[S2]

"It also puts pressure on Ukraine to play by NATO/EU rules should a future Ukrainian government ever decide it wanted to reclaim more of the 'motherland' from Russia. Knowing it was on its own it tried to go down that path would act as a significant deterrent to any future such adventurism."

Seems a misplaced concern unless you expect Ukraine to give up SOME of its lands to Russia? I've not heard of Nova Ukraini. Is Ukraine inclined to march on Rostov? Is Ukraine "adventurous"? Maybe Prigozhin is correct to put in those defense lines up in Kursk.

Then we let them BOTH into NATO?

[Officer of Engineers]

"...You cannot convince me that Kiev could not duplicate what the Afghans and the Chechens did "

Couldn't convince me either. Bigger question, will Ukraine have to duplicate the Afghans? That means we allowed, along with Ukraine, the capture of their entire nation. That would entirely and unnecessarily suck.

North Vietnam didn't surrender and yet, they got South Vietnam.

"Be advised, the Ukrainian nuclear arsenal was up for sale. If it ain't us, it would have been the Chinese ... or the Iranians and North Koreans."

It really wasn't a seller's market with Belarus and Kazach weapons also out there. In fact, these guys (Arms Control Association) didn't even mention nefarious third-party buyers-

Arms Control Association-Ukraine Nuclear Disarmament

Only you did. Anyway, the security assurances weren't met, were they?

Belarus and Kazakhstan were not the brain trust of the Soviet nuclear arsenal.

You were saying? The Ukrainians not only have the rockets but more importantly, the know how and the why the arsenal existed the way it did.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...ukraine-124466

[S2]

"Kiev is NOT eligible for NATO membership no matter what the circumstance would be. They just do not meet our democratic and judicial standards."

That's not your decision, thank God. They're already on a pathway to the EU and they'd better be on a pathway to NATO or this war won't end until Russia captures all of the Ukraine.

[Officer of Engineers]

"Kiev is NOT eligible for NATO membership no matter what the circumstance would be. They just do not meet our democratic and judicial standards."

That's not your decision, thank God. They're already on a pathway to the EU and they'd better be on a pathway to NATO or this war won't end until Russia captures all of the Ukraine.

Neither yours for that matter but I do read the application standards and the hoops Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe jumped through to get it. Kiev is nowhere near and can be nowhere near until the war is over. You know, something about Martial Law. NATO membership is more than a military alliance. It's about democratic and judicial standards. The Warsaw Pact made decades of reforms in years. Until we see those reforms, Kiev do not meet those standards.

And this war will end once Russia is tired of bleeding. Russia has already lost. They won't take Kiev. There will be a Ukraine NOT under Moscow's yoke. Whether it includes LNR or DNR or parts thereof, remains to be seen.

[S2]

"...The Ukrainians not only have the rockets but more importantly, the know how..."

Not sure your point unless to suggest Ukraine a knowledge base possessing some sophistication and attraction. We know. That's why they'll be so much more valuable as a NATO partner than Hungary or N. Macedonia.

[Officer of Engineers]

"...The Ukrainians not only have the rockets but more importantly, the know how..."

Not sure your point unless to suggest Ukraine a knowledge base possessing some sophistication and attraction. We know. That's why they'll be so much more valuable as a NATO partner than Hungary or N. Macedonia.

MY point was and is that the Ukrainian asking price for abandoning their nuclear arsenal (which they could not afford as 95% of that arsenal was in disrepair) was too high for any single nation and it took 3 countries to pay the asking price. Else, the Ukrainians was going to sell piecemeal the arsenal and the knowledge base with that arsenal ... and the Chinese were more than willing buyers at that time. The Chinese couldn't afford the entire arsenal but what pieces they could buy, they did so without hesitation.

[S2]

"...I do read the application standards and the hoops Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe jumped through to get it. Kiev is nowhere near and can be nowhere near until the war is over."

Near enough that only obstructionists will stand in the way. I read them too. If Poland could access, so can Ukraine. Ukraine gets points for fighting the enemy NATO was created to confront. Ukrainians are committed to a western state. They'll get it unless we engineer mechanisms to prevent it.

[S2]

"MY point was and is that the Ukrainian asking price for abandoning their nuclear arsenal"

SO you are conflating nuclear with missile technology.

Thought so. Well missile technology theft has continued long after 1994.

Nukes, Colonel. We're talking about nukes. China didn't need help there. The agreements received by Ukraine weren't worth the paper written on as it turned out. Security guaranteed? Evidently not.

[Officer of Engineers]

Poland wasn't under Martial Law when they made the application and even then, it took years of reforms from application to acceptance. It took the final Polish reform legislation (with judicial review both inside and outside of Poland) to get the final NATO approval to be accepted. Your position is that once the war is over, automatic acceptance and that I cannot see without the reform legislation at least in place and that means outside of Martial Law. And there was backlash in Poland with those reform legislation. It was by no means easy nor automatic. Certain laws had to be amended, abandoned, reworded, etc. A hell of a lot of hardwork for Polish lawyers and lawmakers to jump hoops through.

I simply cannot see this process going on while in the middle of a war, in a war of national survival no less. Do you really need industrial purchase orders written in both Ukrainian and Russian when dealing with a Russian speaking store clerk? I did when I review orders in both English and French.