Russo-Ukrainian war: Strategic and economic theatres

[Versus]

Why of course...First (Russian) love never dies.
https://balkaninsight.com/2022/10/07...ess-elections/

[Joćo]

Strange situation indeed. Its not like we need weapons as we already are drowning in guns of all calibers and types. Maybe Russians are making new friends. It wouldn't be the first time. After all, they are known for their friendliness. Something fishy is going in here and I will need to look at it more carefully. Especially with the latest developments.

I think I was listening to a Lex Freidman interview, I forget who with. Part of the discussion was of Russia's intentions/Strategy with Europe/NATO is to destabilize the Balkan region to weaken Europe and so in consequence the EU and NATO. You must also be aware of this game the Russians are playing?

[Versus]

I think I was listening to a Lex Freidman interview, I forget who with. Part of the discussion was of Russia's intentions/Strategy with Europe/NATO is to destabilize the Balkan region to weaken Europe and so in consequence the EU and NATO. You must also be aware of this game the Russians are playing?

Nothing out of the ordinary, they have been playing the same game since the 19th century, I mean, why stop now? For them, Bulgaria is the main prize and their favorite, than Croatia and at the end, maybe Serbia. For some reason, British lord's didn't get the memo and they constantly are hammering us for being Russian sphere of influence, which is utter nonsense.

I have one question for the soldiers here. Is the move "The blue circle" fact or a fiction?

[Joćo]

Nothing out of the ordinary, they have been playing the same game since the 19th century, I mean, why stop now? For them, Bulgaria is the main prize and their favorite, than Croatia and at the end, maybe Serbia. For some reason, British lord's didn't get the memo and they constantly are hammering us for being Russian sphere of influence, which is utter nonsense.

I have one question for the soldiers here. Is the move "The blue circle" fact or a fiction?

I see what you mean, nothing changes. Is this because of the Orthodox Church and the Byzantine influence. Do they Russia see themselves as the successor?

[Versus]

I see what you mean, nothing changes. Is this because of the Orthodox Church and the Byzantine influence. Do they Russia see themselves as the successor?

God knows what they see.

I don't think that the Byzantine narrative is valid, it is a good marketing campaign but its just that, an populist mantra. Russia recognized Croatia before US, it actively was arming it during the breakup of Yugoslavia and at the end on November 4th 1996, than president of Croatia Franjo Tudjman received a medal from Moscow for his contributions during the WW2. A year after the "Operation Storm" that cleansed Serbs from Croatia. Makes you wonder why would the successor of the Byzantine empire rewarded the catholic Croatia for purging the "orthodox brothers". Putin did it again, on may 5th 2005, when he gave the medal to Stjepan Mesic, than acting president of Croatia for his contributions in the WW2. Which is odd, because the uncle of Stjepan Mesic was a commander of Croatian forces in Stalingrad, fighting alongside Nazis.

This is all about the money and power and there is no "higher" or "divine" goal in all this.

[Albany Rifles]

Nothing out of the ordinary, they have been playing the same game since the 19th century, I mean, why stop now? For them, Bulgaria is the main prize and their favorite, than Croatia and at the end, maybe Serbia. For some reason, British lord's didn't get the memo and they constantly are hammering us for being Russian sphere of influence, which is utter nonsense.

I have one question for the soldiers here. Is the move "The blue circle" fact or a fiction?

Versus, I have been or worked for the US Army since 1976 and the only blue circle I know of is it is used as the symbol for diabetes awareness.

What is the context/link you can share?

[Versus]

Versus, I have been or worked for the US Army since 1976 and the only blue circle I know of is it is used as the symbol for diabetes awareness.

What is the context/link you can share?

Allegedly "The blue circle" was a movie made by NATO and it depicts the WW3 scenario as it unfolds from start to finish and it starts in Kosovo. If it is real, the movie was made at the start of the 80es, 1981 to be more precises.Also it is "for internal use only" movie, meaning that is somewhat clandestine-ish.
Currently we have a bit of a crisis, again, on the Kosovo border, there was a drone recon mission and the drone got brought down over my former base and all the commentators and TV analysts are mentioning that movie but I am not able to find any reliable info about it.

[Albany Rifles]

Never heard of it. I was in NATO at the time but I was a company grade officer at the time.

I know we do scenario reviews and contingencies all the time. It may be one of those.

Heck we war plan against EVERYONE!

United States color-coded war plans - Wikipedia

[Versus]

Never heard of it. I was in NATO at the time but I was a company grade officer at the time.

I know we do scenario reviews and contingencies all the time. It may be one of those.

Heck we war plan against EVERYONE!

United States color-coded war plans - Wikipedia

I though that it will be something like that.

Thanks.

[tbm3fan]

Never heard of it. I was in NATO at the time but I was a company grade officer at the time.

I know we do scenario reviews and contingencies all the time. It may be one of those.

Heck we war plan against EVERYONE!

United States color-coded war plans - Wikipedia

Allegedly, need I say more? Right up there with I heard and the rumor. The people wonder how conspiracy theories start...

[Versus]

Allegedly, need I say more? Right up there with I heard and the rumor. The people wonder how conspiracy theories start...

They are called Psyops but yea, I agree, they are annoying. We had tons of them here and still there are few going on, but they are not as insane as they were during the 90'es.

[TopHatter]

U.S. revokes Russia's market economy status

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States will no longer treat Russia as a market economy country, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, revoking the status granted two decades ago that limited the calculation of anti-dumping duties on Russian goods.

The Commerce Department said its analysis found "extensive" government involvement in the Russian economy had led to distorted prices and costs, which it said did not accurately reflect whether Russian companies were fairly pricing imports into the United States.

"This decision gives the United States the ability to apply the full force of the U.S. anti-dumping law to address the market distortions caused by increasing interference from the Russian government in their economy," the Commerce Department said in a statement.

Washington granted Russia market economy status in 2002, an essential step for Russia's admission to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2012.

Last year, the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia said that Moscow would be able to challenge any U.S. decision to strip Russia of its market economy status at the WTO.

However, Moscow's relations with the West have dramatically deteriorated since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The United States, along with other Western countries, have imposed broad sanctions intended to cut Russia off economically after Moscow sent troops into Ukraine in February in what it calls a "special military operation".
______

[S2]

Continuing "noise" about negotiations-

As Ukraine Retakes Kherson, U.S. Looks To Diplomacy Before Winter Slows Momentum-WSJ Nov. 13, 2022

"'There has to be a mutual recognition that military victory, in the true sense of the word, is maybe not achievable through military means, so therefore you need to turn to other means,'Army Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the top U.S. military officer, told the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday. 'There’s also an opportunity here, a window of opportunity, for negotiation.'”

Supposedly, "...U.S. officials, for their part, don’t think now is the right time, but more of them believe the coming weeks and months provide an opportunity to talk about talks."

What's that mean? Anything that codifies borders other than those of pre-2014, is justifying and rewarding Russia's aggression reaching back to then. After all, could Russian sanctions be maintained given a mutually negotiated settlement to award lands seized from Ukraine in 2014? No...but who in their right mind believes Ukraine would negotiate and accept that as a status quo ante settlement condition?

More importantly, why would military victory, in the true sense of the word, NOT be achievable? Not for lack of skill by Ukraine. Not for lack of will by Ukraine. Only for lack of means...provided by THE WEST might that mutual recognition come to past. Six months from now, if the WEST holds firm, all energy dependence upon Russia will be totally broken. Done. A worthy goal given the demonstrated dubious leveraging techniques Russia has imposed on its business partners? Ummm...actually the whole point of pursuing such independence. Russia is a PROVEN unreliable partner for the foreseeable future. How foreseeable? Until a neo-nazi kleptocracy with announced and demonstrated expansionist ambitions is finally put to rest. Given the meek, submissive passivity demonstrated by the Russian people it won't be anytime soon. Russian governance is likely to become worse before it (if ever) becomes better.

This war can be militarily won if that's the intent of the west. What would be the negotiated equivalent of a military victory- restoration of ALL Ukrainian lands illegally seized since 2014? Seems only right and proper. Return of all Ukrainian citizens illegally abducted? Sure, if we could count on the Russians to have properly documented the wholesale abduction of hundreds to thousands of Ukrainian children-but can we? How about restitution for all that Russia has destroyed? Sure, but how to ensure Russia actually MAKES restitution other than their seized global assets? They don't seem to be good at even paying their own soldiers. Finally, the return of all Ukrainian artifacts and art stolen throughout the nation. Kherson's Regional Art Museum was absolutely ransacked. It's not been the only cultural center treated such.

Those conditions MIGHT be negotiated alternatives to military victory but did anybody see anything there that they believe Russia would surrender? And, since a negotiation, what's Russia's quid pro quo? Is the west going to forever forego admittance of Ukraine to NATO? What alternative security solution would be acceptable to Ukraine and future economic investors (much needed) ensuring Russian rockets, bombs, shells and missiles don't find their way across the border to Kharkiv's power plant just after full restoration other than article 5?

Show me a Russia prepared to accept those terms as a basis for discussion and we can negotiate. Anything less will codify their aggression and require lifting of sanctions because...well, we've accepted a NEW status quo ante.

[Officer of Engineers]

Kiev has the right idea. Sooner or later, they only have themselves on ... well, them and the Russians if they keep supplying them for free. They have the armament tech needed. They just need time and space to rebuild their industries. They're already making big contributions by repairing battle damaged systems ... and the Russians are obliging by providing such. I was always of the view in the end, this is a Ukrainian War and sooner or later, they have to arm themselves to win it. Too much political baggage and risks comes with foreign supplied systems.

We've already seen it with F-16s and M1A1s.

[S2]

"...Sooner or later, they [Ukraine]only have themselves..."

It must be "later". Ukraine is ten years of PEACE from a self-sustaining internal armaments industry, maybe akin to Israel, able to build fully-modernized systems across the full spectrum of aerospace and ground. Naval systems are still the domain of a select few but, even there, Ukraine might be a (distant) future candidate. Many Soviet naval platforms had their origins in Ukraine IIRC.

Until then, any notion of military victory rests squarely with the west's willingness to supply the necessary systems to Ukraine. You want battlefield overmatch? Then we're way behind providing that which we've deemed necessary for our forces to achieve such. Entirely complex? Perhaps. Entirely a necessity, therefore, that can be forecasted for Ukrainian success. Spanish Leos shouldn't go to Ukraine unless Germany commits to the follow-on maintenance and, further, expansion and modernization of that fleet.

Or a relationship, perhaps, with a very friendly next door neighbor, Poland, who's buying M1A2 and K2 tanks while already possessing over 200 Leopard 2 vehicles. Poland is geographically well-positioned to help Ukraine's maintenance and training location short-falls while very politically sympathetic. Afterall, the U.S. Army has already provided 28 M1A2s to the Polish Army for pre-fielding training and familiarization while I'm sure the Poles are already well-familiar with maintenance and training for their existing fleet of Leopards.

Ukraine's peace can only begin once there's absolute assurance that Russian weapons won't periodically travel across their borders to destroy rebuilt (at great cost) infrastructure. Given Russia's demonstrated antipathy to Ukraine, what will stop that even should Ukraine fully eject Russian forces?

Answer-technologies allowing the full defense of Ukrainian airspace and/or the means to reply in kind. "Reply in kind" is limited as the escalatory ladder of that tit-for-tat exchange, of course, leads ultimately to nukes. Guess that's out. Shame we convinced Ukraine to negotiate away its trump card for "security assurances" back in 1994.

Or Article 5. I'm not buying stock in any company investing in Ukraine without that level of assurance. I'll be damned if I want to see my investment blown up by some Kalibur launched from Russia by some dickhead that doesn't know when to stop with his shit.

Or both. Given time, Ukraine will re-build its defense industry (maybe to include a secret nuclear program like Israel). It's up to the west to create that window of opportunity...militarily. It won't happen at the table and any hope for that is forlorn and nothing but cushioning a pathway to APPEASEMENT.

I don't want to welcome Russia back into the family of nations...as is. They are a remorseless enemy as constituted, and must be treated as such.