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Russo-Ukrainian war: Strategic and economic theatres

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  • Originally posted by Versus View Post
    All of this have been predicted a long long time ago.
    You ain't seen nothing yet if you knew the news coming out of the Ag news coming out of the Central Valley.


    • Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post

      You ain't seen nothing yet if you knew the news coming out of the Ag news coming out of the Central Valley.
      I think I have a pretty good grasp on things. Its going to get really really ugly.


      • Save some of the seeds. Germinate then plant them in a pot. Grow your own.

        Tomatoes are easy to grow


        • Russia’s oil power ‘will never return,’ the IEA says. ‘The rupture has come with a speed that few imagined possible’

          Even as Russian missiles pound Ukraine, shattering about a third of Ukraine’s electricity grid and leaving its cities and towns in ruins, President Vladimir Putin has already lost the war in one crucial respect: Russia’s huge clout in global energy supplies—which it built up over decades—is shrinking drastically, probably forever.

          That’s the assessment of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Paris-based organization comprising the world’s biggest producing and consuming nations, in its yearly World Energy Outlook, out on Thursday.

          “The rupture has come with a speed that few imagined possible,” the IEA says in its 524-page report, which lays out three different scenarios for the decades ahead, depending on whether major countries stick to their green-energy commitments. “Russian fossil fuel exports [will] never return in any of the scenarios…to the levels seen in 2021,” it says.

          Instead, Russian oil and gas revenues will drop by more than half, from $75 billion last year to less than $30 billion in 2030. And as Europe rapidly switches to supplies from the U.S. and the Middle East, Russia’s global dominance will steadily shrink further. That’s a dizzying change for Putin, whose country until last year supplied a whopping 20% of the world’s fossil fuels.

          The crisis has brought deep concern among millions, whose energy bills have rocketed over the past year. Even so, oil supermajors have earned a $2 trillion windfall, according to the IEA report. The five Big Oil companies—Exxon Mobil, TotalEnergies, BP, Shell, and Chevron—will likely post a $50.7 billion third-quarter profit, slightly down from their all-time record one quarter before, according to Bloomberg estimates this week.

          ‘No going back’
          The implications of the energy crisis are profound, says the IEA, whose flagship publication has made for dry reading for many years; the organization was founded in 1974, amid the last global oil crisis, to represent major consumers and producers.

          This crisis, it says, is a dramatic turning point for the world, sparked by the Ukraine war, which erupted just as the global economy was digging out from the COVID-19 pandemic. The double whammy has produced “a crisis of unprecedented depth and complexity,” says the IEA, which represents major energy consumers and producers. “A profound reorientation of international energy trade is underway,” the report says. “Many of the contours of this new world are not yet fully defined, but there is no going back to the way things were.”

          Indeed, for the first time, the IEA predicts that global consumption of fossil fuels will reach a high point, or level off, not because of abstract future policies, but because of changes already underway. As EV sales ramp up, global oil demand will peak in the mid-2020s—a decade sooner than the organization previously predicted.

          In fact, the IEA believes this year’s seismic events could push countries to speed up their energy transition, since EVs, and solar and wind power, are increasingly seen as far less vulnerable to upheavals from war and sanctions. What is unclear is whether a global recession might rein in government investments in renewable energy. “A key question for policymakers is whether the crisis will be a setback for clean energy transitions or will catalyze faster action,” the IEA says.

          Hours before the organization published its report, the Global Wind Energy Council, which represents companies in 80 countries, said the IEA report showed how the global oil and gas markets—concentrated in a handful of countries—had been “used and abused” over the past year. “In contrast,” said Sepi Golzari-Munro, the organization’s energy transition director, “renewables provide the opportunity for nations worldwide to benefit from homegrown, secure, and sustainable energy on their own terms.”

          Never say never....but yeah, by the time Russia's former customers are able to trust her again (ha!), oil consumption will have probably tanked, no pun intended.
          “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”


          • Originally posted by Gun Grape View Post
            Save some of the seeds. Germinate then plant them in a pot. Grow your own.

            Tomatoes are easy to grow
            That's not the point, the point is that Serbia is exporting its food to EU. Part of that shipment is than used to stock domestic store chains with all the shipping charges which makes our food far more expensive. Our deary product in Austria costs 1 Euro while that same product in Serbia costs 2 Euros. We are heading to the Ireland Famine scenario from 1845.
            Attached Files


            • I am not talking about Eu or the World, but about Serbia. Our food prices are skyrocketing and recently I got fresh news from the countryside, the farmers are cutting back the production and grow only food that is necessary for their household. Serbia will continue to export food to the Eu while our domestic population will face severe shortages either due to the lack of products or their high prices. Its already happening.


              • Meanwhile the Ukrainians, with an assist from Turkey, is flipping off Old Vladdie Boy!

                Grain ships sail despite Moscow's pullout from deal; missiles rain on Ukraine | Reuters

                Grain ships sail despite Moscow's pullout from deal; missiles rain on Ukraine

                By Pavel Polityuk
                • Summary
                • Missiles hit Kyiv, other cities, knocking out power, water
                • Russia suspends participation in grain deal after its ships hit
                • Kremlin says it can no longer guarantee safety of shipping
                • Kyiv, West accuse Moscow of using food as weapon

                KYIV, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Ships brought grain from Ukrainian ports on Monday, suggesting Moscow had stopped short of reimposing a blockade that might have caused world hunger, despite suspending its participation in a U.N. programme to safely export grain from the war zone.

                Air raid sirens blared across Ukraine and explosions rang out in Kyiv, sending black smoke into the sky as Russia rained missiles down in renewed air attacks. Ukrainian officials said energy infrastructure was hit including at hydro-electric dams, knocking out power, heat and water supplies.

                Ukraine's military said it had shot down 44 of 50 Russian missiles. But strikes left 80 percent of Kyiv without running water, authorities said, adding they hoped to restore it quickly. Two people were reported injured in the Kyiv region.

                Register now
                Still, the resumption of food exports from Ukrainian ports suggested that at least one dire scenario had been averted for now. International officials had feared that Moscow would reimpose a blockade on Ukrainian grain, after Russia announced on Saturday that it was suspending its role in the U.N.-backed programme that escorts cargo ships through the Black Sea.

                "Civilian cargo ships can never be a military target or held hostage. The food must flow," tweeted Amir Abdullah, the U.N. official who coordinates the programme.

                Shortly afterwards, Ukraine confirmed that 12 ships had set sail. The 354,500 tonnes of grain they carried was the most in a day since the programme began, suggesting a backlog was being cleared after exports were interrupted on Sunday.

                But shipments could be interrupted again, not least if insurers stop underwriting them. Chris McGill, head of cargo at Lloyd’s of London insurer Ascot, which has underwritten many of the shipments so far, told Reuters his company was pausing writing new cover for shipments from Monday "until we better understand the situation".

                Insurance previously issued "still stands," he said. Most policies must be renewed on a seven-day basis.

                MISSILE STRIKES

                Russia's missile strikes during the Monday morning rush hour repeated a tactic it has pursued this month of targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, especially power stations.

                "Instead of fighting on the battlefield, Russia fights civilians," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said. "Don’t justify these attacks by calling them a 'response'. Russia does this because it still has the missiles and the will to kill Ukrainians."

                The U.S. ambassador to Kyiv, Bridget Brink, tweeted: "Like millions of Ukrainians, our @USEmbassyKyiv team is once again taking shelter as Russia continues its callous and barbaric missile strikes on the people of Ukraine in an effort to leave the country cold and dark as we approach winter."

                For the past three weeks, Russia has been conducting a campaign of attacks on Ukrainian civil infrastructure using expensive long range missiles and cheap Iranian-made "suicide drones" that fly at a target and detonate.

                Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said 18 targets, mostly energy infrastructure, were hit in missile and drone strikes on 10 Ukrainian regions on Monday.

                In Ukraine's second largest city Kharkiv, the strikes had caused a blackout that left trolleybus driver Ihor Polovikov stranded in his electric cable-powered vehicle on the roadside.

                He was fed up, he said, adding: "But nobody will give up just like that. We got used to it, it's the ninth month. Everyone has understood that this is necessary."

                HUNGER AVERTED

                Moscow said it was forced to pull out of the Black Sea grain shipping deal after blaming Kyiv for blasts that damaged Russian navy ships in the Crimean port of Sevastopol on Saturday.

                Ukraine has neither confirmed nor denied it was behind the explosions that hit the Crimea base of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, but says Russia's navy is a legitimate military target. Moscow said the blasts were caused by a wave of sea and air drones.

                After Russia suspended its participation in the grain shipping programme, the United States accused Russia of using food as a weapon. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Moscow was "blackmailing the world with hunger". Russia denies that is its aim.

                Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the U.N.-brokered deal was "hardly feasible" since Russia could no longer guarantee the safety of shipping. He did not specify why shipments would now be unsafe, and declined to say under what conditions Moscow might rejoin the arrangement.

                But Monday's resumption of Ukrainian grain shipments suggested that Moscow was stopping short of attempting to impose a new blockade.

                Ukraine and Russia are both among the world's largest exporters of food. For three months, the U.N.-backed deal has guaranteed Ukrainian exports can reach markets, lifting a Russian de facto blockade on Ukraine. The news that Moscow was pulling out of the deal had sent global wheat prices soaring by more than 5% on Monday morning.

                The ships that sailed on Monday included one hired by the U.N. World Food Programme to bring 40,000 tonnes of grain to drought-hit Africa.

                "Even if Russia behaves hesitantly because it didn't receive the same benefits, we will continue decisively our efforts to serve humanity," Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who helped mediate the grain deal, said in a speech.

                "Our effort to deliver this wheat to countries facing the threat of starvation is evident. With the joint mechanism that we established in Istanbul, we contributed to the relief of a global food crisis," he said.
                “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                Mark Twain


                • Originally posted by Bigfella

                  And I'm not talking about some imaginary famine, I'm talking about modern reality. You are talking about 800,000 Serbians starving to death. That is literally delusional. Get back to me when the first 10,000 die of starvation (and have actual evidence they did) and maybe I'll start to take this seriously.
                  We will see in two months. I just came back from the shop where the manager caught a little girl shoplifting. Later on I've learned that the shoplifting has increased in that store dramatically in the past three months. I haven't checked the official statistics but judging by my bills, the price of food, since the spring, has rose up to 30 %.


                  • Originally posted by Monash

                    Why would the EU let Serbia or any other nation for that matter on it's potential member list endure mass starvation? I think perhaps your laying on the 'victimhood' a little to thickly here. ALL western nations are currently undergoing periods of high inflation there is no evidence that any of them are facing starvation as a result or for that matter even that inflation will continue to be a problem beyond the short to medium term. So why should Serbia be any different?
                    Not yet, but I can tell you from "the field" that things are getting worse, by the week. Eu doesn't give two ...The thing is that all this is not new to me, I've endured the 90es with the sanctions and I can see the signs of the same thing happening again. Here are some photos from those times. Its not yet that bad but its heading that way.
                    Attached Files


                    • If you guys agree I can give you a brief overview of how it is living in those times. I think that it will give a valuable perspective on effects of sanctions and shortages, both short term and long term on the population.


                      • Please do.
                        Trust me?
                        I'm an economist!


                        • Case of sanctions against Federal republic of Yugoslavia, 1992-2000's

                          On May 30th 1992, under the Resolution 757, the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. All permanent members of the Security Council voted in favor of the sanctions, Russia included. The reason was involvement of Serbia's regime in the civil war, which by that time, entered its 2nd year.

                          Sanctions lasted from May 30th 1992 till the fall of the Milosevic's regime in the early 2000's. The effect of sanctions was profound and it permanently changed the nature Serbian economy, both in terms of quality and quantity. In a way, it was an abrupt change, very violent and unforgiving towards the “old” socialistic ways of production,that at the end, ushered a new form of economy.

                          What is shocking to me, is that nowadays, the entire world follows the Serbia’s path during the 90es.

                          The only difference is scale.

                          Table of content:

                          1. Foundations for the crisis.

                          2. Prelude to destruction

                          3. Extinction Level Event

                          4. Rise of the economic cannibals.

                          5. Neo barbarism.

                          6. Post apocalyptic off shore paradise.

                          7. Road kill.

                          Now its time to go back to the future...

                          Last edited by Versus; 02 Nov 22,, 07:10.


                          • Originally posted by Bigfella

                            How many people died in the famine? (verifiable data please)
                            Unknown. Milosevic's regime didn't keep statistical book keeping in order in those times. Famine wasn't present than but malnourishment was and all conditions that derive from it took their toll.


                            • The European Union's EUMAM Ukraine mission is slowly taking shape - that's training by the EU for the Ukrainian Army. The EU formally enacted the mission on Oct 17th.

                              There was a fight between Germany and Poland over who'd lead the mission; this is now solved by splitting it into a combined arms warfare training center (in Poland) and a support training center (in Germany) with the respective generals in charge of these (MajGen Trytek and MajGen Marlow) being equal and both under the administrative command of the EU military director (French ViceAdm Blejean) that is taking charge of the overall mission. The solution is generally seen as a "loss" for Germany.

                              EUMAM Ukraine plans to train 15000 Ukrainian soldiers concurrently, significantly more than any similar programme by non-allied states (read: by the UK). Training will take place throughout the EU, not just in the two above countries. Financing has been approved for two years.


                              • Originally posted by Bigfella

                                OK, so lets see if I have this correct. The Yugoslav state completely disintegrated and broke up into a group of warring states, resulting in about a decade of war involving various players and costing several hundred thousand lives. But no famine. Hunger? yes. Famine? no. Nothing remotely comparable to Ireland losing 1 million dead during the potato famine. Not even close to the last actual famine in Europe - when the Nazis cut off food to part of occupied Holland in 1944 & about 20,000 died. Yet you continue to insist that somehow this is possible or even likely at a time when Serbia is not even at war.

                                I'm calling bullshit on this for the last time. If you want to keep making stuff up that is on you, I'm out. Maybe you might stop a moment to consider if the framework you are using to analyze events is helpful. It doesn't seem to be.

                                Now, if you want to have a sensible discussion about possible shortages of some products and price rises then have at it. That might actually be informative, but stop fantasizing about catastrophes that aren't going to happen. It adds nothing to these conversations and it likely isn't good for your state of mind.
                                I understand your position and critique, time will tell who is wrong and who is right. I cheer for you with all my heart and soul.