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Russo-Ukrainian war: Strategic and economic theatres

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  • Feed it to the dog. If the dog lives, eat the dog.
    Chimo

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    • Sometimes the Russians make it too easy!!!
      They initiate a propaganda effort to show how the people in the territory occupied by Russia
      are clamoring to join the peace-loving Russian Federation… that is until:


      https://www.ft.com/content/53d8df28-...2-340094ec6620

      The joyous occasion is put on hold, maybe because:

      https://english.nv.ua/nation/russian...-50266914.html

      Must be kind’ a hard to install puppets in your new “state”, when the said puppets are;
      I think the saying goes: Feeling the heat and getting out’ a Dodge!!!!
      When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

      Comment


      • No catastrophe, but sanctions on Moscow are working, says Russian economy veteran

        * This content was produced in Russia where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine

        By Darya Korsunskaya

        MOSCOW, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Russia's economy was on track to expand by 5%-6% in 2022 had Western sanctions not derailed growth for years and ushered in a period of technological stagnation, Russian economy veteran Oleg Vyugin told Reuters.

        Vyugin said there had been no catastrophe, with the sweeping sanctions imposed against Moscow over the conflict in Ukraine being only 30%-40% effective as Russia has found ways to overcome restrictions, but he warned of serious problems should Russia's soaring export revenues fall.

        "If there were no sanctions, the Russian economy could have grown 6% this year," Vyugin, who served as deputy finance minister and deputy central bank governor during his career before he retired from a Moscow Exchange post this year, told Reuters in an interview.

        "In January-February one could see a very strong takeoff coming. It turns out that there is a negative effect. Instead of 5% growth, we got a fall of 4%, so sanctions work."

        Russian officials have been at pains to praise Russia's economic strength in the face of sanctions.

        President Vladimir Putin expects GDP to decline just 2% this year, a more optimistic forecast than his economy ministry expectation of around a 3% decline, but much improved on the World Bank's April expectations of a 11.2% collapse https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/pr...cent-this-year.

        Russia's current account surplus - the difference in value between exports and imports - more than tripled year-on-year in the first eight months of 2022 to a record $183.1 billion, as revenues soared while sanctions caused imports to plunge, although the central bank expects it to shrink in the second half of the year.

        Vyugin said the outlook was gloomy with no end to the conflict in sight.

        "Numbers can be varied, but the main result of sanctions is that the economic growth process in Russia has been interrupted for several years," he said.

        "While export revenues are high, the economy receives very strong support," he said. "If exports are strongly restricted ... this will cause serious harm and we will see the next cycle of falling GDP."

        After imposing the most strict sanctions on Russia in modern history, including cutting some of its top banks from the global financial system, Western countries and their allies are now preparing to limit usage of Russian oil and gas.

        Meanwhile, China is reaping the rewards of cheaper energy supplies from Russia, as Moscow looks east in search of alternative markets.

        Vyugin expects some sanctions impact to be felt with a delay, namely in the technology sector, where the reliance on imports is high.

        Industry sources told Reuters last month that Russian airlines, including state-controlled Aeroflot, had started to strip jetliners to secure spare parts they can no longer buy abroad because of sanctions.

        "The world will move forward, but Russia will only use some second-grade technology and spend huge resources to recreate what there already is in the world, but can't be imported," Vyugin said.

        "If the situation doesn't change, Russia will see a gradual decline in the level of technological development."
        ______
        “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

        Comment


        • World opinion shifts against Russia as Ukraine worries grow

          NEW YORK (AP) — The tide of international opinion appears to be decisively shifting against Russia, as a number of non-aligned countries are joining the United States and its allies in condemning Moscow’s war in Ukraine and its threats to the principles of the international rules-based order.

          Western officials have repeatedly said that Russia has become isolated since invading Ukraine in February. Until recently, though, that was largely wishful thinking. But on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, much of the international community spoke out against the conflict in a rare display of unity at the often fractured United Nations.

          The tide had already appeared to be turning against Russian President Vladimir Putin even before Thursday’s U.N. speeches. Chinese and Indian leaders had been critical of the war at a high-level summit last week in Uzbekistan. And then the U.N. General Assembly disregarded Russia’s objections and voted overwhelmingly to allow Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to be the only leader to address the body remotely, instead of requiring him to appear in person.

          That shift against Russia accelerated after Putin on Wednesday announced the mobilization of some additional 300,000 troops to Ukraine, signaling the unlikelihood of a quick end to the war. Putin also suggested that nuclear weapons may be an option. That followed an announcement of Russia’s intention to hold referendums in several occupied Ukrainian regions on whether they will become part of Russia.

          Those announcements came at the very moment that the General Assembly, considered the premier event in the global diplomatic calendar, was taking place in New York.

          Numerous world leaders used their speeches on Tuesday and Wednesday to denounce Russia’s war. That trend continued Thursday both in the assembly hall and at the usually deeply divided U.N. Security Council, where, one-by-one, virtually all of the 15 council members served up harsh criticism of Russia – a council member -- for aggravating several already severe global crises and imperiling the foundations of the world body.

          The apparent shift in opinion offers some hope to Ukraine and its Western allies that increasing isolation will add pressure on Putin to negotiate a peace. But few are unduly optimistic. Putin has staked his legacy on the Ukraine war and few expect him to back down. And, Russia is hardly isolated. Many of its allies depend on it for energy, food and military assistance and are likely to stand by Putin regardless of what happens in Ukraine.

          Still, it was striking to hear Russia’s nominal friends like China and India, following up on last week’s remarks, speak of grave concerns they have about the conflict and its impact on global food and energy shortages as well as threats to the concepts of sovereignty and territorial integrity that are enshrined in the U.N. Charter.

          Brazil registered similar concerns. Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa make up the so-called BRICS bloc of countries, which has often shunned or outright opposed Western initiatives and views on international relations.

          Only one country, Belarus, a non-council member and Russia ally that was invited to participate, spoke in support of Russia, but also called for a quick end to the fighting, which it called a “tragedy.”

          “We hear a lot about the divisions among countries at the United Nations,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. “But recently, what’s striking is the remarkable unity among member states when it comes to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Leaders from countries developing and developed, big and small, North and South have spoken in the General Assembly about the consequences of the war and the need to end it.”

          “Even a number of nations that maintain close ties with Moscow have said publicly that they have serious questions and concerns about President Putin’s ongoing invasion,” Blinken said.

          Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was careful not to condemn the war but said that China’s firm stance is that “the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected. The purposes of the principles of the U.N. Charter should be observed.”

          Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said “the trajectory of the Ukraine conflict is a matter of a profound concern for the international community.” He called for accountability for atrocities and abuses committed in Ukraine. “If egregious attacks committed in broad daylight are left unpunished, this council must reflect on the signals we are sending on impunity. There must be consistency if we are to ensure credibility,” he said.

          And Brazilian Foreign Minister Carlos Alberto Franca said immediate efforts to end the war are critical. “The continuation of the hostilities endangers the lives of innocent civilians and jeopardizes the food and energy security of millions of families in other regions, especially in developing countries,” he said. “The risks of escalation arising for the current dynamics of the conflict are simply too great, and its consequences for the world order unpredictable.”

          Foreign ministers and top officials from Albania, Britain, France, Ireland, Gabon, Germany, Ghana, Kenya, Mexico and Norway delivered similar rebukes.

          “Russia’s actions are blatant violation of the Charter of the United Nations,” said Albanian Foreign Minister Olta Xhacka. “We all tried to prevent this conflict. We could not, but we must not fail to hold Russia accountable.”

          Mexican Foreign Secretary Marcelo Ebrard called the invasion a “flagrant breach of international law” and Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney said: “If we fail to hold Russia accountable we send a message to large countries that they can prey on their neighbors with impunity.”

          Unsurprisingly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was unapologetic and defensive at the same time and specifically targeted Zelenskyy. Citing a phrase often attributed to President Franklin Roosevelt, Lavrov called Zelenskyy “a bastard,” but said Western leaders regarded him as “our bastard.”

          He repeated a long list of Russia’s complaints about Ukraine and accused Western countries of using Ukraine for anti-Russia activities and policies.

          “Everything I’ve said today simply confirms that the decision to conduct the special military operation was inevitable,” Lavrov said, following Russian practice of not calling the invasion a war.

          Russia has denied being isolated and the foreign ministry used social media to publicize a number of apparently cordial meetings that Lavrov has held with foreign minister colleagues at the UN in recent days.

          Still, Blinken and his colleagues from other NATO nations seized on what they believe to be growing opposition to and impatience with Putin.

          And, several speakers, including Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, pointed out that Lavrov skipped the meeting except for his speaking slot.

          “I notice that Russian diplomats flee almost as quickly as Russian soldiers,” Kuleba said, referring to Lavrov’s hasty exit along with recent Russian troop retreats in Ukraine.

          ___
          “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

          Comment


          • Nord Stream: Ukraine accuses Russia of pipeline terror attack

            Ukraine has accused Russia of causing leaks in two major gas pipelines to Europe in what it described as a "terrorist attack".

            Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak said the damage to Nord Stream 1 and 2 was "an act of aggression" towards the EU.

            He added that Russia wanted to cause pre-winter panic and urged the EU to increase military support for Ukraine.

            Seismologists reported underwater blasts before the leaks emerged.

            "There is no doubt that these were explosions," said Bjorn Lund of Sweden's National Seismology Centre, as quoted by local media.

            The operators of Nord Stream 2 warned of a loss of pressure in the pipeline on Monday afternoon. That led to a warning from Danish authorities that ships should avoid the area near the island of Bornholm.

            The operator of Nord Stream 1 said the undersea lines had simultaneously sustained "unprecedented" damage in one day.

            Denmark's Defence Command has released footage of the leaks which shows bubbles at the surface of the Baltic Sea near the island.

            The largest patch of sea disturbance is 1km (0.6 miles) in diameter, it says.

            "Gas leak from NS-1 [Nord Stream 1] is nothing more than a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression towards the EU. Russia wants to destabilise the economic situation in Europe and cause pre-winter panic," Ukraine's Mr Podolyak tweeted in English.

            He also called on European partners, particularly Germany, to increase military support for Ukraine.

            "The best response and security investment are tanks for Ukraine. Especially German ones," he said.

            Other European leaders have raised the idea that the damage to the pipelines was deliberately inflicted.

            Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki blamed it on sabotage and said it was probably linked to the war in Ukraine.

            Denmark's Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, said it was too early to come to conclusions, but that it was hard to imagine the multiple leaks could be a coincidence.

            At the same time, unconfirmed reports in German media said authorities were not ruling out an attack on the undersea gas network.

            A Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said he was "extremely concerned" about the incident, and the possibility of a deliberate attack could not be ruled out.

            The EU has previously accused Russia of using a reduction in gas supplies as an economic weapon, in response to European sanctions imposed because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

            However, Moscow denies this, saying the sanctions have made it impossible to maintain the gas infrastructure properly.

            Whatever the cause of the damage, it will not immediately affect the supply of gas to Europe, as neither pipeline was operational.

            The Nord Stream 1 pipeline - which consists of two parallel branches - has not transported any gas since August when Russia closed it down for maintenance.

            It stretches 745 miles (1,200km) under the Baltic Sea from the Russian coast near St Petersburg to north-eastern Germany. Its twin pipeline, Nord Stream 2, was halted after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began.

            Although neither pipeline is in operation, they both still contain gas.

            German, Danish and Swedish authorities are all investigating the incidents.

            The Danish energy authority told the Reuters news agency that the leak could continue for several days and perhaps even a week.

            The pipeline's operators - Nord Stream AG - said it was impossible to estimate when the system's infrastructure would be restored.

            Energy prices have soared since Moscow invaded Ukraine and scarce supplies could push up costs even further.

            There are growing fears that families in the EU will be unable to afford the cost of heating this winter.

            Poland is leading the effort to curb reliance on Russia, once Europe's main energy supplier, with the inauguration of a new gas pipeline.

            The Baltic Pipe will be a new link for Norwegian gas to Europe, which will allow countries to the south of Poland, including Slovakia and the Czech Republic, to access it.

            -------------------------------------------------------------------------------


            The Swedish national seismic network says it detected two explosions close to unusual leaks discovered this week on two Russian natural gas pipelines running under Baltic Sea.

            Nord Stream pipeline damages in Baltic Sea raises suspicion of sabotage

            The National Seismology Centre at the Uppsala University told Sweden's public broadcaster SVT that it registered one blast early Monday southeast of the Danish island of Bornholm, and a slightly larger one later that night northeast of the island.

            It says the latter explosion was equivalent to a magnitude-2.3 earthquake.

            Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen earlier said she "cannot rule out" sabotage after three leaks were detected over the past day on Nord Stream 1 and 2.

            "We are talking about three leaks with some distance between them, and that's why it is hard to imagine that it is a coincidence," said Frederiksen.

            The pipelines are not currently bringing gas to Europe as an energy standoff over Russia's war in Ukraine halted flows or never allowed them to begin.

            However, gas still fills the lines, leaving open the possibility of localized environmental damage.

            --------------------------------------------------------------

            Yikes.
            Last edited by statquo; 27 Sep 22,, 17:08.

            Comment


            • It doesn't really make sense does it?
              Nord Stream 2 has never been taken in use, so why does it contain gas?
              Nord Stream 1 has been shut down for a while now, so why is there still gas flowing in it?
              Also why can't the Russians shut of the gas flow at the source?
              As for the sabotage angle? An insurance scam?
              When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Amled View Post
                It doesn't really make sense does it?
                Nord Stream 2 has never been taken in use, so why does it contain gas?
                Nord Stream 1 has been shut down for a while now, so why is there still gas flowing in it?
                Also why can't the Russians shut of the gas flow at the source?
                As for the sabotage angle? An insurance scam?
                No one wants water in the pipes, including condesenation.

                Chimo

                Comment


                • Right sir, that does make sense!
                  Then when the gas pressure in the pipeline is reduced, the entire pipe line will flood!
                  So the question remains. Who and why?
                  Both here in Denmark and over in Sweden the talking heads are already bringing the subject of hybrid-warfare on line.
                  I for one would have no trouble in blaming the Russians, but why would they?
                  Trash two useless pipelines, simply to creates three small no-go areas in the Baltic seems a bit out there, one would think?
                  When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Amled View Post
                    Right sir, that does make sense!
                    Then when the gas pressure in the pipeline is reduced, the entire pipe line will flood!
                    So the question remains. Who and why?
                    Both here in Denmark and over in Sweden the talking heads are already bringing the subject of hybrid-warfare on line.
                    I for one would have no trouble in blaming the Russians, but why would they?
                    Trash two useless pipelines, simply to creates three small no-go areas in the Baltic seems a bit out there, one would think?
                    Why would they? Because while gas can flow publicly refusing to let it flow automatically paints the seller (in this case Russia) as the one responsible and therefore the 'bad guy' in public opinion. If however the pipelines are 'broken' then Russia can't officially be blamed for not selling gas to Germany. There have already been a couple of unexplained 'faults' with gas supplies to Europe. But using 'maintenance' as an excuse can only go on for so long before it becomes obvious Russia is directly responsible. Cutting the pipelines inflicts real hardship on European citizens without Russia having to accept blame (at least officially - i.e. 'prove we did it!). At a guess? Putin is gambling that public pressure over winter will force European NATO governments members to negotiate and end the war on terms he can accept.

                    This way Putin gets to send a message and strike back at NATO while also being able to deny responsibility. On the plus side? This proves how desperate he's getting!
                    Last edited by Monash; 28 Sep 22,, 13:03.
                    If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                    Comment


                    • Not just that, but a message that these pipelines won’t work again and you can’t expect any more gas from us. And that all of the pipelines in the Baltics are vulnerable.

                      Also it happened on the same day that the Baltic Sea pipeline that was inaugurated between Norway to Poland.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by statquo View Post
                        Not just that, but a message that these pipelines won’t work again and you can’t expect any more gas from us. And that all of the pipelines in the Baltics are vulnerable.

                        Also it happened on the same day that the Baltic Sea pipeline that was inaugurated between Norway to Poland.
                        Hope he enjoys eating or sniffing all his gas now. He has no other place to now send this gas as there is only one pipeline from those fields and it is to Europe. He can't build another line in a few months if ever since that costs billions. He can't turn into LNG as there is only small facility to generate a small amount but nothing to handle the large quantities produced. New plants cost billions again and no major company will partner. Then the is the need for ships to move the LNG elsewhere plus the insurance for those ships. Same with his oil at this time.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by statquo View Post
                          Not just that, but a message that these pipelines won’t work again and you can’t expect any more gas from us. And that all of the pipelines in the Baltics are vulnerable.

                          Also it happened on the same day that the Baltic Sea pipeline that was inaugurated between Norway to Poland.
                          He would have to be extremely desperate to attack non-Russia European pipelines. That would be an open invitation to Ukraine (perhaps with a little NATO assistance to start doing the same thing to critical pipelines in Russia. I'm not sure Putin's quite at that point - yet.
                          If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                          Comment


                          • [QUOTE=Officer of Engineers;n1592752]No one wants water in the pipes, including condesenation.

                            [/QUOTE]One of our Danish news-shows had an engineer specializing in pipeline construction on the program.
                            She bore out that gas is kept in the pipes to prevent moisture build up, and also to keep the pipes stable on the seabed.
                            I do wish that she’d been asked what is going to happen when the gas pressure is exceeded by the water pressure around the breeches.
                            Asked if the pipeline is built in sections, which can be sealed off from each other?
                            If not, then the worry about moisture in the pipes will become moot, as both pipelines will become flooded!


                            When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

                            Comment


                            • The pipes themselves is pressure rated. The specs should include them being able to withstand the water pressure.
                              Chimo

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                                The pipes themselves is pressure rated. The specs should include them being able to withstand the water pressure.
                                Ok then, they can withstand the pressure, but what about having been flooded end to end by the Baltic?
                                Both yourself, and the media expert made a point of the fact that the pipelines were filled with gas,
                                to prevent the formation of condense water that causes corrosion.
                                Having the Baltic flood the pipelines would; IMO, cause a bit more damage than condense water.


                                When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

                                Comment

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