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  • Originally posted by zraver View Post

    Depends what the cargo is. We really need to get Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments going again and soon.
    The direct impacts of such a ban by Russia on Canada the US and Australia and a lesser extent the EU are not so significant. The rest of the world? Places like Egypt fr example definitely much worse.

    You can of course differentiate between the type of merchant vessels you grant access to. Bulk carriers are not container ships or oil tankers after all. But on top of that there's no good reason to sanction Russian grain exports. True, they do contribute to Russia's economy but grains as a % contribute far less to GD that oil and gas do.

    That said Putin is in very good position to do significant damage to the world's grain exports and induce mass famine by arbitrarily restricting grain exports much as he done with gas exports to Poland etc (and possibly oil in future). And even if the nations most impacted by those embargo's aren't traditionally viewed as being part of the Western power block the potential flow-on effects of such a ban are enormous. And horrifying. He definitely has some potential to use grain exports for leverage should the war continue to go badly for Russia. And lets face it absent WMDs etc that is the most likely outcome. So I wouldn't put it past him to try and weaponize grain production.
    Last edited by Monash; 28 Apr 22,, 23:03.
    If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

    Comment


    • https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61252785

      That has to be one of the most inane; and there have been quite a few of them,
      statements to come out of the Kremlin during this crisis!
      That supplying weapons to a country which is the victim of an invasion by an aggressive neighboring state,
      is endangering the peace of Europe!!!

      As usual Russian propagandists have turned facts upside down:
      What is endangering European peace is Russia invading a sovereign neighboring state!

      When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Monash View Post

        The direct impacts of such a ban by Russia on Canada the US and Australia and a lesser extent the EU are not so significant. The rest of the world? Places like Egypt fr example definitely much worse.

        You can of course differentiate between the type of merchant vessels you grant access to. Bulk carriers are not container ships or oil tankers after all. But on top of that there's no good reason to sanction Russian grain exports. True, they do contribute to Russia's economy but grains as a % contribute far less to GD that oil and gas do.

        That said Putin is in very good position to do significant damage to the world's grain exports and induce mass famine by arbitrarily restricting grain exports much as he done with gas exports to Poland etc (and possibly oil in future). And even if the nations most impacted by those embargo's aren't traditionally viewed as being part of the Western power block the potential flow-on effects of such a ban are enormousness. And horrifying. He definitely has some potential to use grain exports for leverage should the war continue to go badly for Russia. And lets face it absent WMDs etc that is the most likely outcome. So I wouldn't put it past him to try and weaponize grain production.
        One of the FSB letters claims that Russia is banking on global famine to cause a mass migration problem to divert/ pressure Europe.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by zraver View Post

          One of the FSB letters claims that Russia is banking on global famine to cause a mass migration problem to divert/ pressure Europe.
          Shanghai' s lockdown is a far greater problem than Russia holding onto its grain. Methinks the Russians are still thinking via the 1950's
          In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.

          Leibniz

          Comment


          • The economic war against Russia is getting hot
            Markets have stabilized following Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, as if the bombs and missiles won't derail the global economy. But the economic war running parallel to the shooting war is getting hotter, warranting more attention than investors may be devoting.

            Much of the analysis of Russia’s war in Ukraine focuses on brutal land battles for terrain as invading and defending forces fight village-by-village in eastern and southern Ukraine. But just as important are multinational efforts to choke the Russian economy, by slashing the energy revenue that funds Russia’s military and denying foreign technology Russia needs to maintain and replenish its weaponry. Like tank and artillery battles, the economic combat is attrition warfare in which whoever lasts longest is likely to win.

            The economic war is intensifying as the improbable starts to seem possible: Ukraine could win. President Biden plans to ask Congress for $33 billion in fresh aid to Ukraine, including $20 billion for weapons. That would be a huge, 10-fold increase in what Washington has provided so far. The usually taciturn U.S. Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin, has started to talk about the U.S. and NATO deliberately weakening Russia, en route to a Ukrainian victory. Heavy weapons, such as tanks and artillery, that Ukraine's allies were reluctant to provide at the start of the war could soon be flooding into Ukraine.

            In response, Russia has now stopped supplying natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria, its strongest move yet to punish nations aiding Ukraine and a signal that Russia could tighten the taps or shut them completely if it feels increasingly threatened. “All three parties to the conflict, NATO, Russia and Ukraine, are escalating,” the Eurasia Group warned in an April 27 analysis. ”Further escalation becomes more likely as animosity builds.”

            Poland and Bulgaria can probably get by without Russian gas. But Russia and its energy customers are now beginning to “weaponize” oil and gas shipments, which is one of the more alarming scenarios analysts drew at the outset of the war. If Russia halts gas shipments to other European nations or the entire continent, it would cause skyrocketing prices in Europe and probably cause a recession there, which could undermine support for aid to Ukraine by raising the cost on millions of European voters.

            At the same time, European nations are considering a phased boycott of Russian oil, which they can replace from other sources more easily than Russian gas. Even so, a broader embargo of Russian oil would raise global prices for everybody and add to inflation in Europe, the United States and elsewhere. Tightening the screws on Russia’s economy generates collateral damage in many other countries.

            Sanctions on Russia’s financial system are having the intended effect. But those sanctions still allow room for Russia to sell oil and gas, and Russia happens to be benefiting from high energy prices caused in part by its own invasion of Ukraine. Some analysts think Russian President Vladimir Putin timed his invasion of Ukraine on the departure of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel in December, or even Joe Biden’s replacement of Donald Trump as U.S. president last January. But it’s more likely high energy prices in the run-up to Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion persuaded Putin he’d have a cushion of energy revenue, even with inevitable sanctions.

            Russian energy revenue hit $76 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021, the highest level in 10 years, according to the Institute for International Finance. The research group thinks higher oil and gas prices now could be pushing Russia’s energy revenue higher still, even with sanctions. That’s why European nations and others imposing sanctions are now considering going further by stopping oil purchases altogether or tightening financial sanctions in a way that would effectively prohibit the financing required for those transactions to go through.

            If either of these things happen, a key factor is whether large energy purchasers such as China and India would buy most or all of the oil Russia would be unable to sell elsewhere, which they might get at a sizable discount to global prices. If they do, it would obviously be a lifeline of sorts to Putin’s military financing. The United States is leading the effort to cut Russia off, a pressure campaign that could remake global relations for years to come. The military battle inside Ukraine probably won’t metastasize into World War III, but the economic battle may force fence-sitter nations to pick sides and suffer the consequences.

            An opaque fight over technology
            Global energy markets provide minute-by-minute accounting of how the energy war is likely to affect prices and the global economy. The battle over technology available to Russia is far more opaque. The United States and many other nations have passed sweeping bans on sales of computer equipment and many other items to Russia, in a broad effort to impose pain on Putin and the Russian economy. Some of that technology has military applications that could directly affect Russia’s offensive in Ukraine.

            Russia has vast stockpiles of Soviet-era military hardware, but its stores of advanced weapons are more limited. British researchers examining the remnants of Russian weaponry in Ukraine discovered a heavy reliance on components from the United States and other countries now helping Ukraine battle Russian forces. Russia’s war-making capabilities include U.S.-made circuit boards in the advanced Iskander-K cruise missile, U.S.-made fiber-optic gyroscopes in the 9M949 artillery rocket and a British-made oscillator in the TOR-M2 air-defense system.

            “Almost all of Russia’s modern military hardware is dependent upon complex electronics imported from the U.S., the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Japan, Israel, China and further afield,” Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds wrote in a recent report for the research group RUSI.

            The Pentagon says Russia is beginning to have “inventory issues” with precision-guided munitions and is relying more on “dumb bombs” that are far less accurate. It’s hard enough to build sophisticated weapons, and “here the Russian military industries face a problem,” according to the RUSI report: “Russia’s latest weapons are heavily dependent upon critical specialist components manufactured abroad.”

            Putin and his advisers famously miscalculated by planning for a quick military campaign that would promptly remove Ukraine’s elected government. That fumble has left Russia with a shell shocked army that has lost at least one-fourth of its combat power and a grinding war Russia could actually lose.

            Another consequence is that Russia is surely scrambling to find foreign components it needs to rebuild key weapons stockpiles. Russia doesn’t need to buy that gear directly from the companies that make it, which in most cases would be violating sanctions by supplying anything to Russia. Instead, Russia is likely seeking components through third-party or black-market sources, or even theft. Western governments are likely trying to foil such acquisitions. While troops fight on battlefields, supply-chain warriors battle in the shadows.

            No end in sight
            A popular theme is that Putin wants some sort of victory he can tout by Russia’s “Victory Day” on May 9. But by nearly all accounts, there’s no chance of any resolute outcome that soon. In reality, the twin military and economic wars are likely to last for months, if not longer. Europe is beginning to plan for a shortage or complete lack of Russian energy next winter. The point of a phased embargo on Russian oil would be to squeeze Putin over a period of weeks and months. Putin, for his part, has given signs he is preparing the Russian public for a slog, which could include new conscription to help replace soldiers dying and getting injured in Ukraine. Maybe we’ll know the outcome by May 9, 2023.

            Markets are probably not prepared for an intensifying economic war between Russia and much of the rest of the world. Energy prices spiked and stocks fell after Russia invaded on Feb. 24, but markets have since stabilized. In the United States, traders are once again paying more attention to inflation data and the Federal Reserve than they are to geopolitical hotspots.

            The Institute for International Finance predicts that oil prices could hit $200 a barrel if there’s a full and effective embargo on Russia oil. The only time U.S. oil prices were at that level, on an inflation-adjusted basis, was in 2008, as a deep recession was forming. Other factors hurt the economy more than oil prices back then, but we have other problems now, as well, including non-energy inflation and a rapid pivot from monetary easing to tightening. Recessions usually arise from a confluence of factors, rather than one single source, and there are still some economic shock waves likely to emanate from Russia’s military barbarism.
            _________

            “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

            Comment


            • A little side trip to TASS’s “Fantasyland
              Mariupol
              …"There are no military operations in the city. The locals may start putting their yards in order and replacing broken windows.
              Peaceful life is returning to the city," Mayor Konstantin Ivashchenko told TASS on Sunday…

              It does sound quite idyllic doesn’t it?
              Putting the yards in order…replacing broken windows.
              There’s just one little problem, what with most of the city destroyed by Russian bombs and missiles,
              there are plenty of yards, but no dwellings wherein to replace broken windows!!!


              https://tass.com/world/1442255
              When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

              Comment


              • Reuters indicates Germany may be days away from ending Russian oil purchases/usage.

                https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...iy-2022-05-02/

                If true this will be a crippling blow to the Russian economy and more proof of how out of touch Putin must be. He may have thought stitching off Polish and Bulgarian gas supplies would send a warning to other EU members. Instead all it seems to have achieved is to hasten their flight away from Russian fossil fuels. And he can't replace them with other customers, at least not quickly! Prior to the war something like more than 40% of Russian governments revenue came from taxes on oil and gas sales, mostly to the West.
                Last edited by Monash; 03 May 22,, 07:49.
                If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                Comment


                • War in the Ukraine will end on May 9th.
                  Orban told the Pope that is what Putin promised him.
                  Since the whole world, knows that Putin is a man of his word it’s bound to be the truth!!!
                  There are also rumors that at the usual military parade in Red Square
                  the Russians will display their latest crack aerial unit composed of flying pigs!!
                  Odds on which story is true?
                  My moneys on pigs might fly.


                  https://breakingthenews.net/Article/...May-9/57798404
                  When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

                  Comment


                  • Not really economic but it shows how the West has coalesced around Ukraine in it's hour of need.

                    Hip hop & rap is not really my style but I really like the way they blended the folk music into the overall song.

                    https://www.npr.org/2022/05/13/10988...lush-orchestra


                    Ukraine wins Eurovision 2022 with overwhelming support from the audience



                    Members of the band Kalush Orchestra pose onstage with the winner's trophy and Ukraine's flags after winning on behalf of Ukraine.

                    Marco Bertorello/AFP via Getty Images

                    Ukraine is the winner of the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest, one of the most visually stimulating spectacles on European television.

                    Much of the world's attention had already been focused on Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion in late February.

                    But the country took the spotlight on a different kind of world stage on Saturday, when folk-rap group Kalush Orchestra competed and prevailed in Eurovision's grand final.

                    "This victory is for every Ukrainian!" lead singer Oleh Psiuk shouted.

                    Support for Ukraine could be seen and heard from the first moments of the finals on Saturday. Contestants and audience members alike sang, "All we are saying, is give peace a chance," during the opening ceremony. When the cameras cut to shots of the audience in Turin, Italy, people could be seen dressed in yellow and blue, some waving the Ukrainian flag, in support.

                    After the Kalush Orchestra peformed, Psiuk called out to audience members across the world, "I ask all of you, please help Ukraine, Mariupol, help Azovstal, Right now!"

                    Ukraine ended the evening with a whopping 631 points, followed by the U.K. with 466, Spain with 459 and then Sweden with 438.





                    Frontman Oleh Psiuk told NPR in a Zoom interview before the final that it's a huge responsibility to represent Ukraine and its culture to the world, especially as Russia is actively trying to destroy it.

                    "We need support to show everybody that our culture is really interesting and has a nice signature of its own," he said. "It exists, and we have to fight now at all of the front lines."


                    The band is relatively new, but its style and song quickly became iconic


                    The members of Kalush Orchestra were granted special permission to leave Ukraine, and are returning immediately after Eurovision ends. One stayed behind to help defend Kyiv.

                    Opening Ceremony - Eurovision TV

                    Kalush Orchestra became a recognizable fixture of this year's competition, thanks in large part to its members' distinctive outfits, dance moves and wind instrument skills.

                    Its song, "Stefania," combines rapped verses and a folk chorus. Psiuk wrote it about his mother before the war, but it has since taken on a new, more patriotic meaning.



                    "Many people began to perceive it like Ukraine is my mother," he explains. "And this way the song has been very close to Ukrainian people."

                    Psiuk explains that the group's unique style is present not only in its music, but "in our images, in the concept, in anything we do."

                    The six-person band mixes modern streetwear with traditional clothing, from embroidered vests to Psiuk's signature pink bucket hat, and incorporates Ukrainian woodwind instruments like the sopilka and telenka.

                    While the current iteration of the band has only been around since last year, it has its roots in a three-person rap group called Kalush, which Psiuk helped found in 2019. It's named after his hometown in the western region of Ivano-Frankivsk.



                    Psiuk's family is still there. In his few spare moments between rehearsals and interviews, they tell him about the missiles flying overhead.

                    "It's like a lottery," he said. "You never know where it strikes, so ... we are very anxious."

                    Kalush Orchestra from Ukraine singing "Stefania" performs during rehearsals at the Eurovision Song Contest in Turin, Italy on May 9.

                    Luca Bruno/APThe musicians fight for their country on and off the stage


                    The band's members are all men of fighting age, and had to get temporary permits in order to leave Ukraine for the competition in Turin, Italy.

                    One of them, Vlad Kurochka, or MC KylymMen (which translates to CarpetMan) chose to stay in Ukraine, where he's been helping to defend Kyiv.

                    The other musicians were planning to return home immediately after Eurovision ended, Psiuk said.




                    He plans to return to the volunteer organization he started called "De Ty" (which translates to "Where are you"). Its roughly 35 volunteers coordinate things like transportation, medicine and accommodations for people across Ukraine, who submit requests via a Telegram channel.

                    And Psiuk said while the band isn't able to focus on creating new music at the moment, it does have some already in the works.

                    What a Eurovision win means for Ukraine


                    Psiuk had hoped that the band would return to Ukraine as Eurovision champions, adding that any sort of win would help boost the country's morale.

                    "I would like to bring some good news to Ukraine, because good news [hasn't] been in our country for a long time," he said.


                    He hoped fans' support for Ukraine won't end now that the songwriting contest has.

                    Psiuk said it's important for people to attend peaceful rallies, post on social media and keep raising awareness in other ways.

                    "The more people speak about Ukraine, the quicker the war will be over and it will not start in other countries," he said, adding that he is grateful for the support his country has received so far.

                    It's customary for the country that wins Eurovision to host the following year's competition. Does Psiuk think that can happen in 2023?

                    "Yes," he said emphatically. "I'm sure that Ukraine will host Eurovision, and will gladly do that in the rebuilt, whole and happy Ukraine."

                    Side note: I became aware of Eurovision, like many Americans, by the introduction of Riverdance in the 1994 Eurovision as an intermission act.

                    I am always amused by what countries are considered European for this...Australia, Morocco, Israel...but it is a fun take in. It's like being on an acid trip with no side effects!
                    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                    Mark Twain

                    Comment


                    • Russia will likely be shut out permanently from global energy markets, top oil execs say

                      Russia will likely be shut out permanently from global energy markets once Europe can operate without the country's oil and gas, top energy executives said.

                      The European Union's resolve is "firm" to wean itself off of Russian supplies, Meg O'Neill, CEO of Australia's Woodside Petroleum, said at an energy conference in Brisbane Tuesday, according to the Financial Times.

                      "The Europeans post-World War II thought there would never be war on European soil again," she said. "I think what has happened is so shocking for them that I think they will not be lulled into complacency around acquiring energy from Russia in the future."

                      The comments come as the EU edges closer to a phased-in embargo of Russian oil, which the US has already banned. European countries are also looking to reduce their reliance on Russian natural gas by sourcing it from elsewhere.

                      Europe isn't the only market that can turn to alternatives to Russian energy. Liquefied natural gas producers in Australia, O'Neill added, can help fill demand in Asia once Russia is eventually out of the trade loop.

                      The world won't allow Russia to return to global markets unless President Putin has a "change of heart," which is unlikely, according to Kory Judd, director of operations for Chevron's Australian business.

                      "There's a bit of a moral transition that would have to happen," Judd said at the Tuesday conference. "The move has not been an energy move, it's been a social move as people have recognised the destructive nature of the conflict. And so I suspect that if there were a quick change of heart and more responsible actions, there could be a reintegration."
                      ________

                      There's no such thing as "permanent" unless you're talking about death or taxes. But Russia's greatest source of hard currency is severely screwed for the foreseeable future, that's for damn sure.

                      India and China will probably buy from them but the rupee and yuan aren't exactly hard currencies.
                      “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                        Russia will likely be shut out permanently from global energy markets, top oil execs say

                        Russia will likely be shut out permanently from global energy markets once Europe can operate without the country's oil and gas, top energy executives said.

                        The European Union's resolve is "firm" to wean itself off of Russian supplies, Meg O'Neill, CEO of Australia's Woodside Petroleum, said at an energy conference in Brisbane Tuesday, according to the Financial Times.

                        "The Europeans post-World War II thought there would never be war on European soil again," she said. "I think what has happened is so shocking for them that I think they will not be lulled into complacency around acquiring energy from Russia in the future."

                        The comments come as the EU edges closer to a phased-in embargo of Russian oil, which the US has already banned. European countries are also looking to reduce their reliance on Russian natural gas by sourcing it from elsewhere.

                        Europe isn't the only market that can turn to alternatives to Russian energy. Liquefied natural gas producers in Australia, O'Neill added, can help fill demand in Asia once Russia is eventually out of the trade loop.

                        The world won't allow Russia to return to global markets unless President Putin has a "change of heart," which is unlikely, according to Kory Judd, director of operations for Chevron's Australian business.

                        "There's a bit of a moral transition that would have to happen," Judd said at the Tuesday conference. "The move has not been an energy move, it's been a social move as people have recognised the destructive nature of the conflict. And so I suspect that if there were a quick change of heart and more responsible actions, there could be a reintegration."
                        ________

                        There's no such thing as "permanent" unless you're talking about death or taxes. But Russia's greatest source of hard currency is severely screwed for the foreseeable future, that's for damn sure.

                        India and China will probably buy from them but the rupee and yuan aren't exactly hard currencies.
                        What can’t be bought with Yuan?
                        Trust me?
                        I'm an economist!

                        Comment


                        • Russia will have to build the infrastructure first before it can sell more oil and gas to China. And until the start of this war both industries relied heavily on western technology in the operation and construction of oil and gas infrastructure. China can offer finance and technical assistance to replace (all/most ??) western inputs of course but their assistance will come at a 'price' i.e. part Chinese ownership or control of the industry or lower prices in return for fiance. Possibly both. So losing Europe as a customer is still going to cost Russia no matter what. India will no doubt continue to purchase oil but can get its gas and coal cheaper elsewhere. So again whatever the outcome, sans a return of its European customers Russia's economy and national budget are going to take major hits and shrink considerable.
                          If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                          Comment


                          • China will get its pound of flesh and more. Having its claws deep in the only thing of value in Russia will suit Xi just fine.

                            Putin's legacy will be ashes in the mouth of his successors.
                            sigpic

                            Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

                            Comment


                            • Exclusive: Four EU countries call for use of Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine

                              BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Lithuania, Slovakia, Latvia and Estonia will call on Tuesday for the confiscation of Russian assets frozen by the European Union to fund the rebuilding of Ukraine after Russia's invasion, a joint letter written by the four showed on Monday.

                              On May 3, Ukraine estimated the amount of money needed to rebuild the country from the destruction wrought by Russia at around $600 billion. But with the war still in full swing, the sum is likely to have risen sharply, the letter said.

                              "A substantial part of costs of rebuilding Ukraine, including compensation for victims of the Russian military aggression, must be covered by Russia,
                              " said the letter, that is to be presented to EU finance ministers on Tuesday.

                              The letter, seen by Reuters, also calls for the 27-nation bloc to start preparing new sanctions against Moscow.

                              "Ultimately, if Russia does not stop the military aggression against Ukraine, there should be no economic ties remaining between EU and Russia at all – ensuring that none of our financial resources, products or services contributes to Russia's war machine," it said.

                              The four countries noted that the EU and like-minded countries have already frozen assets belonging to Russian individuals and entities and some $300 billion of central bank reserves.

                              "We must now identify legal ways to maximise the use of these resources as a source of funding – for both the costs of Ukraine's continued efforts to withstand the Russian aggression, and for the post-war reconstruction of the country," they said.

                              "Confiscation of state assets, such as central bank reserves or property of state-owned enterprises, has a direct link and effect in this regard."


                              The EU has so far frozen some 30 billion euros worth of assets of Russian and Belarussian oligarchs and entities.

                              The European Commission said last Wednesday it could check if it was possible to seize frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine under national and EU laws but did not mention central bank reserves.

                              "Freezing of assets is different to seizing them," said Commission spokesman Christian Wigand. "In most member states, this is not possible and a criminal conviction is necessary to confiscate assets. Also, legally speaking, private entities and central bank assets are not the same," he said.

                              He said the Commission would present later this week a proposal to make the violation of restrictive measures a crime in the EU, as well as a proposal to revise and strengthen the current EU rules on confiscation and to strengthen the asset recovery and confiscation system.

                              "In cases where legal ways to confiscate the assets will not be identified, it should be used as leverage and released only once Russia compensates Ukraine for all the damages done," the four countries said.

                              Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation" that it says is not designed to occupy territory but to destroy its southern neighbour's military capabilities and capture what it regards as dangerous nationalists.
                              ________

                              It's called reparations. It's nothing new. "Pottery Barn" rules: You break it, you pay for it.
                              “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                              Comment


                              • After 3 months of war, life in Russia has profoundly changed

                                When Vladimir Putin announced the invasion of Ukraine, war seemed far away from Russian territory. Yet within days the conflict came home — not with cruise missiles and mortars but in the form of unprecedented and unexpectedly extensive volleys of sanctions by Western governments and economic punishment by corporations.

                                Three months after the Feb. 24 invasion, many ordinary Russians are reeling from those blows to their livelihoods and emotions. Moscow’s vast shopping malls have turned into eerie expanses of shuttered storefronts once occupied by Western retailers.

                                McDonald’s — whose opening in Russia in 1990 was a cultural phenomenon, a shiny modern convenience coming to a dreary country ground down by limited choices — pulled out of Russia entirely in response to its invasion of Ukraine. IKEA, the epitome of affordable modern comforts, suspended operations. Tens of thousands of once-secure jobs are now suddenly in question in a very short time.

                                Major industrial players including oil giants BP and Shell and automaker Renault walked away, despite their huge investments in Russia. Shell has estimated it will lose about $5 billion by trying to unload its Russian assets.

                                While the multinationals were leaving, thousands of Russians who had the economic means to do so were also fleeing, frightened by harsh new government moves connected to the war that they saw as a plunge into full totalitarianism. Some young men may have also fled in fear that the Kremlin would impose a mandatory draft to feed its war machine.

                                But fleeing had become much harder than it once was — the European Union's 27 nations, along with the United States and Canada had banned flights to and from Russia. The Estonian capital of Tallinn, once an easy long-weekend destination 90 minutes by air from Moscow, suddenly took at least 12 hours to reach on a route through Istanbul.

                                Even vicarious travel via the Internet and social media has narrowed for Russians. Russia in March banned Facebook and Instagram — although that can be circumvented by using VPNs — and shut access to foreign media websites, including the BBC, the U.S. government-funded Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and the German broadcaster Deutsche Welle.

                                After Russian authorities passed a law calling for up to 15 years’ imprisonment for stories that include “fake news” about the war, many significant independent news media shut down or suspended operations. Those included the Ekho Moskvy radio station and Novaya Gazeta, the newspaper whose editor Dmitry Muratov shared the most recent Nobel Peace Prize.

                                The psychological cost of the repressions, restrictions and shrinking opportunities could be high on ordinary Russians, although difficult to measure. Although some public opinion polls in Russia suggest support for the Ukraine war is strong, the results are likely skewed by respondents who stay silent, wary of expressing their genuine views.

                                Andrei Kolesnikov of the Carnegie Moscow Center wrote in a commentary that Russian society right now is gripped by an “aggressive submission” and that the degradation of social ties could accelerate.

                                “The discussion gets broader and broader. You can call your compatriot — a fellow citizen, but one who happens to have a different opinion — a “traitor” and consider them an inferior kind of person. You can, like the most senior state officials, speculate freely and quite calmly on the prospects of nuclear war. (That's) something that was certainly never permitted in Soviet times during Pax Atomica, when the two sides understood that the ensuing damage was completely unthinkable,” he wrote.

                                “Now that understanding is waning, and that is yet another sign of the anthropological disaster Russia is facing,” he said.

                                The economic consequences have yet to fully play out.

                                In the early days of the war, the Russian ruble lost half its value. But government efforts to shore it up have actually raised its value to higher than its level before the invasion.

                                But in terms of economic activity, “that’s a completely different story,” said Chris Weafer, a veteran Russia economy analyst at Macro-Advisory.

                                “We see deterioration in the economy now across a broad range of sectors. Companies are warning that they’re running out of inventories of spare parts. A lot of companies put their workers on part time work and others are warning to them they have to shut down entirely. So there’s a real fear that unemployment will rise during the summer months, that there will be a big drop in consumption and retail sales and investment,” he told The Associated Press.

                                The comparatively strong ruble, however heartening it may seem, also poses problems for the national budget, Weafer said.

                                “They receive their revenue effectively in its foreign currency from the exporters and their payments are in rubles. So the stronger the ruble, then it means the less money that they actually have to spend," he said. “(That) also makes Russian exporters less competitive, because they’re more expensive on the world stage.”

                                If the war drags on, more companies could exit Russia. Weafer suggested that those companies who have only suspended operations might resume them if a cease-fire and peace deal for Ukraine are reached, but he said the window for this could be closing.

                                “If you walk around shopping malls in Moscow, you can see that many of the fashion stores, Western business groups, have simply pulled down the shutters. Their shelves are still full, the lights are still on. They’re simply just not open. So they haven’t pulled out yet. They’re waiting to see what happens next," he explained.

                                Those companies will soon be pressed to resolve the limbo that their Russian businesses are in, Weafer said.

                                "We are now getting to the stage where companies are starting to run out of time, or maybe run out of patience,” he said.

                                ___

                                “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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