Russo-Ukrainian war: Strategic and economic theatres

[Monash]

Latest article from Reuters on the anticipated scale of the contraction in Russia's economy over the next 12 months.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...al-2022-04-12/

The key takeaway is that even using the most optimistic projections i.e. those being produced by Russia's Finance Ministry itself the best Russia can hope for over the next 12 months is a contraction of 10% which would make it as bad as the recession of 1994 immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Other sources are predicting a contraction of closer to 15%!

Even if Russia wins this war (takes all of the Dombass and holds on to Crimea) its going to choke on it's 'prizes'.

[TopHatter]

Despite Putin's claims that the West's 'economic blitzkrieg strategy didn't work,' Moscow's mayor says the city is about to lose 200,000 jobs

Moscow's mayor said on Monday that hundreds of thousands of city residents could lose their jobs as Western companies suspend or pull their operations from Russia.

"According to our estimates, about 200,000 people are at risk of losing their jobs," Mayor Sergei Sobyanin wrote in an official blog post.

In the post, Sobyanin said Moscow had approved an employment support program worth 3.36 billion rubles, or roughly $41 million, that would supply temporary jobs or training to those without work.

Sobyanin wrote that around 58,000 employees are expected to benefit from the program and highlighted that Russia would provide a monthly allowance for children and loans for small and medium businesses.

Sobyanin's comments come as Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to deny Western sanctions have impacted Russia's economy.

"We can now confidently say that such policy (of sanctions) towards Russia has failed," he said on Monday. "The economic blitzkrieg strategy didn't work. Moreover, the initiators themselves couldn't get away with the sanctions."

More than 750 companies have publicly announced that they would cut operations in Russia to some degree since the invasion of Ukraine began, according to the Yale School of Management.

Some companies have pledged to continue paying their Russian workers even while shuttered in the country, though it's unclear exactly how long they plan to sustain their support.

McDonald's, one of the first major businesses to withdraw from Russia, said that its store closures in the country cost the company $50 million a month as it keeps its roughly 62,000 local workers on payroll. Some of its locations are still open because the franchisees who own and operate those restaurants have refused to close, Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported.

Sobyanin's post indicated that Moscow is still grappling with a long list of crises. City authorities will discuss in the next two weeks how the capital will maintain its stock of medicines without imports, and how it will keep its hospitality industry afloat, he wrote.

"There is a lot of work to be done, the results of which will appear only in a few years," wrote Sobyanin.
________

[Albany Rifles]

Despite Putin's claims that the West's 'economic blitzkrieg strategy didn't work,' Moscow's mayor says the city is about to lose 200,000 jobs

Moscow's mayor said on Monday that hundreds of thousands of city residents could lose their jobs as Western companies suspend or pull their operations from Russia.

"According to our estimates, about 200,000 people are at risk of losing their jobs," Mayor Sergei Sobyanin wrote in an official blog post.

In the post, Sobyanin said Moscow had approved an employment support program worth 3.36 billion rubles, or roughly $41 million, that would supply temporary jobs or training to those without work.

Sobyanin wrote that around 58,000 employees are expected to benefit from the program and highlighted that Russia would provide a monthly allowance for children and loans for small and medium businesses.

Sobyanin's comments come as Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to deny Western sanctions have impacted Russia's economy.


________

Sobyanin better stay away from open windows!

[astralis]

Yeah we got her on real time in 83-84 on German radio. Preferred Stuttgarter Hofbrau!

look, got OoE and AR and Gunny all in one picture!!

[Monash]

Not the article I wanted to post (this is dated from late February) and the one I wanted is a much more recent update. But here is an article that summarizes life in Putins's new pro-Russian 'republics'/State-lets in Donetsk and Luhansk. In short life is bad. In fact so bad that thousands of ethnic Russians from both regions are trying to get to Ukraine if they can. Thousands of them were previously supporters of 'Russian liberation' but living conditions there are now so bad that North Korea starts to look good - at least its poverty and degradation is well organized.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...tist-statelets

The most recent article noted that things have only gotten even worse since!

[Amled]

Well it looks like Macron beat Le Penn (again!)
Imagine the alternative: two of Putin’s European BFF’s (Le Penn and Orban) sitting in at high level EU and NATO meetings?
Macron might not be to my taste; his wishy-washy statements regarding a possible “Finlandizatiaon” of the Ukraine,
during Putin’s diplomatic dog-and-pony show prior to the invasion, was a bit worrying!
But he is certainly better than the alternative!

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/a...5981506_5.html

[Bigfella]

Additional to Le Pen losing the pro-Putin right wing & increasingly authoritarian PM of Slovenia has lost power. This is good news as it further isolates Orban.

[Amled]

https://www.memri.org/reports/russia...russia-serious

There’s been a lot of speculation about Putin being around the bend.
But compared to the Russian parliamentarian who recommends firing a Russian nuke into the US’s Nevada Test Centre: “Just to prove that they can”,
he’s the picture of sanity!

[Monash]

IMPORTANT UPDATE; Aljazeera is reporting that Russia has threatened to terminate gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria as of next Wednesday. NO further details as yet

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...plies-liveblog

[Amled]

IMPORTANT UPDATE; Aljazeera is reporting that Russia has threatened to terminate gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria as of next Wednesday. NO further details as yet

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...plies-liveblog

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61237519

Are Poland and Bulgaria just the first in Putin's game plan?

[Monash]

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61237519

Are Poland and Bulgaria just the first in Putin's game plan?

Certainly a warning shot across Germany's bow and of course other consumers but after that?

The thing is though it's another form of MAD. Every customer he cuts off is one more who stops paying, this strategy is literally a zero sum game for Putin. So in a way this is rather scary. It smacks of desperation. If Germany and Russia's other European customers don't blink he doesn't have much left to threaten them with. Except perhaps violence. And given his conventional forces are more or less totally committed in Ukraine the only weapons he has left are nuclear!

[Albany Rifles]

And given his conventional forces are more or less totally committed in Ukraine the only weapons he has left are nuclear!

Or bio-chem

[Amled]

https://www.rferl.org/a/hungary-russ.../31788899.html
I guess that if any country was going to break the unanimity, that NATO and the EU has shown in the face of Putin’s aggression,
the odds on favorite was Oban’s Hungary!
Putin must be cackling away! Finally a clear crack in alliance!
Well Oban has never made a secret of where his allegiance lies; this just proves it beyond a doubt.
Well the future might end up proving that NATO and the EU can get along better without Hungary,
then Hungary can without NATO and the EU!

[Bigfella]

Hungary is pretty isolated these days. I think maybe the only politically similar government in the EU/NATO now is Poland, and they are NOT on team Putin in any way. It will be interesting to see what the response to this is.

[zraver]

So the next question, how realistic would it be to ban Russian flagged merchant vessels from western ports and what would the likely economic impacts be for both Russia and the West?

Depends what the cargo is. We really need to get Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments going again and soon.