Russo-Ukrainian war: Strategic and economic theatres

[zraver]

International tariff on Russian gas an oil to be paid to Ukraine. Say $1 a barrel until the total cost of the damage to Ukraine is paid for including victims compensation using normally accepted formulas based on age, occupation and type of legal injury: property, wounding, maiming, long term care and support costs and finally death.

[Officer of Engineers]

You'll all assuming that the eventual peacetalks don't include non-compensation as part of the package deal.

[Albany Rifles]

Shit that's aged like milk....

Amongst your many talents no one has ever accused you of being Nostradamus!!!

[Albany Rifles]

Regarding Tojo et al they had manifest evidence that the atrocities committed by Japanese forces in the field were de facto policy (SOP) for the Japanese military i.e lots of similar episodes and pots of disparate locations under different commanders. Yamashita? Regarding regarding & command responsibility - its possible you could get senior Russian military figures on those grounds but not necessarily political ones. And even then as far as military commanders go a lot will depend on what the Russian decide to do about the Bucha incident given it is a comparatively recent event. (And yes, I would be totally surprised if they 'did ' anything'.) But in practical terms senior military officers could potentially cover their own precious arses by ordering military trials for selected junior scape goats if Putin or other senior figures thought it was worthwhile. Command responsibility covered.

End of the day? I don't think the Russia will take any action other than to deny the entire incident. I don't think any Russians will personally face prosecution other than in absentia and I don't think there's anything the West can do about it - other than hand over Russian government million in compensation to the victims. That will sting.

There was ample evidence it was official Japanese policy prior to our entry into the war. Word out of China provided ample warning of what was happening. Reports of Japanese atrocities in the American press and radio was well covered in the late 30s. There didn't need to be a Wannsee Declaration equivalent to bring the Japanese leadership to Justice.

[Albany Rifles]

You'll all assuming that the eventual peacetalks don't include non-compensation as part of the package deal.

Considering what has happened to the Russian economy...some reports this week is word the tariffs have erased the past 15 years of progress of the Russian economy. Ouch. I can see where reparations would be very hard to swallow by Russia.

[Albany Rifles]

The sanctions appear to really be taking a bite on Russia.

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/07/10914...russia-working

A look at whether the sanctions on Russia are actually working


April 7, 20224:52 PM ET
Heard on All Things Considered


NPR's Ailsa Chang speaks with Daleep Singh, White House Deputy National Security Adviser for International Economics, about the latest round of sanctions imposed on Russia.

AILSA CHANG, HOST:

As of today, Russian forces have waged war on Ukraine for six weeks. And as promised, the U.S. and its allies have responded in part by levying and then escalating economic sanctions against Russia. Yesterday, the White House announced a new round of sanctions on Russia's largest financial institutions and on more individuals closely tied to President Vladimir Putin.

We're joined now by Daleep Singh. He is White House deputy national security adviser for international economics and a key architect of these sanctions. Welcome.

DALEEP SINGH: Hi, Ailsa. Good to be with you.

CHANG: Good to have you. So I want to start with these latest sanctions. You know, at this point in the war, what is the administration trying to achieve with this particular round of sanctions?

SINGH: Yeah. So yesterday, we intensified what were already the most severe sanctions ever levied on a major economy. First, we gave what's the equivalent of the financial death penalty to the largest financial institution in Russia. It's called Sberbank. And to give you some perspective, Sberbank is the main artery in the Russian financial system. It holds about one-third of the total assets in Russia's banking system as a whole or about $500 billion. So all of its assets that touch the U.S. are now frozen, and it can no longer do any business with the U.S.

CHANG: OK. Now, that sounds significant, but how do we know if sanctions are truly having an impact on Russia's decision-making here? Like, what indications are you looking for?

SINGH: Well, look, when you're dealing with an autocrat like Putin, who has a high threshold for pain and a heavy hand on the narrative inside his country, we're clear-eyed - sanctions are never going to be a stand-alone solution. They work when they're embedded in a broader strategy.

But let me just say, even for an autocrat like Putin, he has a social contract with the Russian people. You know, if body bags are being sent back to Russia, if the shelves are empty, if debit cards don't work, if the country goes into default, is that really the end game he's playing for? That's really the question that we put in front of him.

CHANG: But let's talk about the strength of the sanctions that have been imposed so far. Can we talk about European oil and gas from Russia? Because that's worth about $1 billion per day, I understand, to Russia. Can sanctions really have an impact if energy is not a part of those sanctions?

SINGH: Without question. Russia's GDP is projected to shrink by double digits this year. And this year alone, the economic shock that's being projected will wipe out the past 15 years of economic gains in Russia. I mean, Russia is descending into economic and financial isolation.

CHANG: Still how much is the U.S. trying to persuade European countries to reduce their Russian oil and gas dependence?

SINGH: Well, look, we've taken that step. We've banned all Russian oil imports, coal imports, natural gas imports. We happen to be a major producer of all three of those sources of energy; Europe is not. So they're operating at a different timetable. But obviously, we would like to be in alignment with them eventually. And we're having those discussions privately.

CHANG: When it comes to appealing to countries that have remained neutral, how does the U.S. discourage countries from doing business with Russia?

SINGH: Yeah. Well, so what we say to them is the 30 countries that have joined us are defending the principles that underpin peace and security for all of us. For those who haven't joined us, the message we always give is if we stand by and do nothing and every bully, every autocrat in the world has their own backyard, writes their own rules, we've seen in history what happens. Look at the first half of the 20th century. It was the story of conflict, war, genocide and tyranny. No one - no one should have any interest in a return to that way of life.

CHANG: What is the long-term prospect in all of this? I mean, this war, it's lasting longer than certainly Russia predicted. It could last much longer. How long do you expect these sanctions to remain in effect?

SINGH: They're designed to be in effect as long as it takes. We can always escalate or de-escalate. They're extremely flexible. We know that despite the debilitating hit we've already landed, it will take time to change Putin's strategic calculus. Our bet is that Putin will realize this is a strategic failure that's not in his own interest.

CHANG: That is White House deputy national security adviser for international economics Daleep Singh. Thank you very much.

SINGH: Thanks, Ailsa.

[Monash]

There was ample evidence it was official Japanese policy prior to our entry into the war. Word out of China provided ample warning of what was happening. Reports of Japanese atrocities in the American press and radio was well covered in the late 30s. There didn't need to be a Wannsee Declaration equivalent to bring the Japanese leadership to Justice.

Yes but the circumstances are not an exact match. The only skin I have in the entire argument to begin with is that it would be hard if not impossible to argue for the existence of mass civilian executions as official policy in Ukraine on the basis of a single incident (Bucha). So depending on how they react the Russian Government (not the individuals involved or local commanders) may have some legal wriggle room - provided they take action against the offenders.

That said I'm not holding my breath waiting for any such action to occur. In reality? I think I have about as much chance of being crowned the next Miss Universe as there is of Russia acknowledging the crimes in question and taking action against the perpetrators. But while the clock is ticking, it's still an option they can pursue to save the reputations and necks of more senior officers & officials.

[Monash]

Considering what has happened to the Russian economy...some reports this week is word the tariffs have erased the past 15 years of progress of the Russian economy. Ouch. I can see where reparations would be very hard to swallow by Russia.

Reparations won't be an issue. The West has quarantined all those lovely Russian foreign exchange reserves. It has just paid it's reparations in advance that's all. The only question is how much do they get back at the end of the war.

[Albany Rifles]

Reparations won't be an issue. The West has quarantined all those lovely Russian foreign exchange reserves. It has just paid it's reparations in advance that's all. The only question is how much do they get back at the end of the war.

Good point. But it still begs the question will Russia make release of those funds back to them a part of any peace deal. I imagine they will certainly put it on the table.

Also, nothing prevents Ukraine to do a Treaty of Paris and make their separate piece to get the Russians off their land. Zelenskyy has been a very nimble wartime leader. No telling if he has the skill set to pull off the kind of peace negotiation that will be advantageous to the West.

[Albany Rifles]

Yes but the circumstances are not an exact match. The only skin I have in the entire argument to begin with is that it would be hard if not impossible to argue for the existence of mass civilian executions as official policy in Ukraine on the basis of a single incident (Bucha). So depending on how they react the Russian Government (not the individuals involved or local commanders) may have some legal wriggle room - provided they take action against the offenders.

That said I'm not holding my breath waiting for any such action to occur. In reality? I think I have about as much chance of being crowned the next Miss Universe as there is of Russia acknowledging the crimes in question and taking action against the perpetrators. But while the clock is ticking, it's still an option they can pursue to save the reputations and necks of more senior officers & officials.

I was only commenting on the War Crimes trial of WW 2 and the Japanese culpability. I wasn't trying to conflate it to anything happening in Ukraine.

After all, I am an historian and not an attorney!

[Monash]

Good point. But it still begs the question will Russia make release of those funds back to them a part of any peace deal. I imagine they will certainly put it on the table.

In one sense they don't have much say in the matter. That said those reserves are huge bargaining chip being held just out of Putin's reach. He will want them back. The question I guess is how to finagle a deal, some kind of financial round robin that lets Russia save face and yet gets some money to Ukraine. Maybe Ukraine could just outright agree to 'sell' Russia' at least some of territories it's seized. Over to the diplomats, international bankers and lawyers to come up with a solution for that part of the puzzle.

Also, nothing prevents Ukraine to do a Treaty of Paris and make their separate piece to get the Russians off their land. Zelenskyy has been a very nimble wartime leader. No telling if he has the skill set to pull off the kind of peace negotiation that will be advantageous to the West.

I think what the west wants is a return to 'normality' as far as international trade is concerned asap. Foreign relations? Normality there is probably a generation away unless Putin goes sooner than that. So if the west gets international trade back on its feet and Ukraine as a member of the EU but not NATO that's a win.

For Russia? I'm not sure there even is a win. Even assuming they conquered all of Ukraine their economy, armed forces and international relations are effectively ruined. Putin won't want trade relations with the west but in the short term can't avoid them. Once the war is over he'll be looking at every mechanism he can find to ween Russia of western capital, technology and services. But down that road only lies China and role of Russia as China's new North Korea. So I don't see any 'win' out of this war for them unless of course Putin trips on a rug in the Kremlin and breaks his neck shortly after signing the peace treaty.

[Albany Rifles]

For Russia? I'm not sure there even is a win. Even assuming they conquered all of Ukraine their economy, armed forces and international relations are effectively ruined. Putin won't want trade relations with the west but in the short term can't avoid them. Once the war is over he'll be looking at every mechanism he can find to ween Russia of western capital, technology and services. But down that road only lies China and role of Russia as China's new North Korea. So I don't see any 'win' out of this war for them unless of course Putin trips on a rug in the Kremlin and breaks his neck shortly after signing the peace treaty.

I think when this crap show is done Putin will start to look to his remaining military for regime preservation and less for external use.

[TopHatter]

Amongst your many talents no one has ever accused you of being Nostradamus!!!

Not me man, that's Bolsonaro talking

[Ironduke]

International tariff on Russian gas an oil to be paid to Ukraine. Say $1 a barrel until the total cost of the damage to Ukraine is paid for including victims compensation using normally accepted formulas based on age, occupation and type of legal injury: property, wounding, maiming, long term care and support costs and finally death.

I myself say f--- "precedent" and straight up confiscate all the money the Russian government has in Western banks. Western firms certainly aren't getting their money back on their ownership stakes and investments in Russia. They're going to have to write all that off. Confiscate every last cent, too bad Russia put that money in our banks. If the Germans didn't get the Nazi gold back after WWII, Putin ain't getting his money back either. And I don't care about the differences about where Nazi gold and Russian holdings in our banks came from.

Decisions can be made later where the money goes, but it ain't Putin's anymore. We should straight up take it. Pass laws to make it legal or give it a fiction of being legal if need be. Then they can file all the lawsuits they want, and get laughed out of court. And I'm not saying Western firms should be given the money either. I think it just needs to be straight up confiscated and put in trust until there's a consensus where it should go. I favor reconstruction in Ukraine, while Western firms can count their losses against their future corporate tax bills for however long need be, until they're made whole.

[Monash]

..... Decisions can be made later where the money goes, but it ain't Putin's anymore. We should straight up take it. Pass laws to make it legal or give it a fiction of being legal if need be. Then they can file all the lawsuits they want, and get laughed out of court. And I'm not saying Western firms should be given the money either. I think it just needs to be straight up confiscated and put in trust until there's a consensus where it should go. I favor reconstruction in Ukraine, while Western firms can count their losses against their future corporate tax bills for however long need be, until they're made whole.

1) Reconstruction payments for Ukraine (audited and vetted for corruption).
2) Reimbursement for Western firms whose assets in Russia have been confiscated (Ditto)
3) Infrastructure investment in Western Europe with the goal of potentially weaning them Europe off Russian gas and oil pipelines (competition).
4) Reimburse holders of Russian bonds
5) Buy & send Putin a nice 'thank you' card with the loose change that's left over.