Russo-Ukrainian war: Strategic and economic theatres

[TopHatter]

Hungary PM rejects Zelensky appeal for weapons and sanctions

Hungarian PM Viktor Orban has dismissed an appeal by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for weapons and tougher sanctions against Russia, saying it would be "against Hungary's interests".

Orban rejected Zelensky's demands at the European Council "because they are contrary to the interests of Hungary", Hungarian government spokesperson Zoltan Kovacs said in a statement.

Certainly a relief that it isn't just the American Right that's still swooning over Putin.

[Officer of Engineers]

At this stage, do you really think the Ukrainians will need to pay tribute of any sort to Moscow?

Yes, I do. The modern term is called tax exemptions.

it seems to me that the Ukrainian maximalist war aims (complete liberation of DNR/LNR/Crimea) is now in the realm of possible (not yet probable).

I can't see it. Right now, the Ukrainians played a damned good game on prepared defensive. Once they go on the offensive, they're subject to the same exposure as the Russians are currently experiencing but also facing superior Russian firepower. The Ukrainians would be the ones stuck on the roads. I also remind you that Putin has yet to call up his 4x bigger reserves while Zelensky has if not maxed out his call up, pretty well closed to it.

[Bigfella]

Certainly a relief that it isn't just the American Right that's still swooning over Putin.

At the risk of spoiling your day, they are also swooning over Orban. Trump even made one of his fascist sympathizing buddies one of his advisors (before the inevitable sacking - practically mandatory for Trump appointees. I'm sure its pure coincidence that both leaders are authoritarian racists.

[TopHatter]

At the risk of spoiling your day, they are also swooning over Orban. Trump even made one of his fascist sympathizing buddies one of his advisors (before the inevitable sacking - practically mandatory for Trump appointees. I'm sure its pure coincidence that both leaders are authoritarian racists.

Oh no, I'm well aware of that. It was just embarrassing as all hell as American to be one of the few outliers out there. I mean, I expect Putin worship/cheering from the usual suspects, like Belarus etc.

Support for Putin is a part of their raison d'ętre. These people actually want a form of government akin to right-wing fascism. It is obvious from all they say and do that democracy is not their thing. They want the regimentation and pageantry of right-wing dictatorship. The dogmatism of this group could be the thing that ultimately destroys them. They ignore public opinion and force their extremist views on all and sundry. This not only turns voters off, it turns their stomachs (hence the need for voter suppression and gerrymandering)

The Democrats should be exploiting this dichotomy between what these far-right extremists want for the public and what the public wants for itself. They could in fact drive a deep wedge between few Rule of Law Never Trumper Republicans left and the rest of the Right if they set their minds to it. But, as I've said entirely too many times, the Democrats could fuck up a wet dream.

Trump's cult wants autocracy for America. They crave a “strongmen” to look up to, a man who "fights!" The hilarious part of course is that Trump is not a strongman. He is neither tough enough nor intelligent enough to cut the mustard in that department. In fact the Trump movement is anti-intellectual and sees intelligence as a “Beta trait”. Ignorance is seen as a bonus by this flock. Take MTG’s “Gazpacho Police” statement. That is a kind of enforced Philistinism. They appear to take pride in ignorance and dogmatism. Which of course explains a great deal of Trump's appeal. His constant verbal gaffes and lunacy are a sign that "he's one of US!"

[TopHatter]

I can't see it. Right now, the Ukrainians played a damned good game on the defensive. Once they go on the offensive, they're subject to the same exposure as the Russians are currently experiencing but also facing superior Russian firepower. The Ukrainians would be the ones stuck on the roads.

They're still fighting in their own country, with a friendly population that is downright eager to help them in any way they can.

Those farmers pulling Russian vehicles away will switch over to pulling stuck Ukrainian vehicles out of the mud and back into action.

People will be providing food, shelter and other such small kindnesses that they're able to Ukrainian troops.

They'll be providing directions and pointing out potential hazards in front of the UA, showing which way Russian troops went and how many of them there were.

Ukrainian civilian and military morale will soar to new heights as the Russians are pushed off Ukrainian soil.

Every day, the Ukrainians will get better while the Russians only get worse.

[Officer of Engineers]

They're still fighting in their own country, with a friendly population that is downright eager to help them in any way they can

Didn't help thus far. All Ukrainian attempts at cutting Russian LOCs failed miserably. And the premis is the liberation of LNR/DNR/Crimea which is the reverse of what's currently happening. The Russians would be working on shorter and even interior LOCs while Ukrainians would be stretching theirs. The Russians has yet also to call up their reserves while Zelensky has and in the preceding months, the Russians have demonstrated that they could move men and machines to the border a hell of a lot faster than the Ukrainians.

I really do not want to see an Ukrainian task group smashing onto a prepared Russian defence which the LNR/DNR/Crimea is already well situated as they are the launch points for their invasions.

[astralis]

Putin can’t call up those reserves without REALLY risking political instability, though. That’s why he keeps on saying he won’t order mobilization and pretended he was so shocked when conscripts ended up in Ukraine.

And those reserves are pretty much trash in terms of training, and I can’t imagine their morale and logistics will be any better than what we’ve seen thus far.

That’s why the reinforcements we’ve seen are coming from the Wagner and the Kadyrov scum, and with a leavening of the Georgia occupation troops. Russian reserve well is not that high.

If (and it’s still a big if) the Ukrainians cut and surround the forces close by Kyiv, that’s 10k troops in the bag. Will free up a lot of Ukrainian troops and crush Russian morale. Meanwhile the Ukrainians still have a working railnet and transport system…and the Russkis do not.

Hope those loitering munitions get there soon to deal with the arty.

As I said, UKR getting maximal war aims is only possible, not likely at this stage. But as we’ve seen, a LOT of unlikely things have happened…such as the Russians being worse than the ‘79 PLA.

[Officer of Engineers]

Putin can’t call up those reserves without REALLY risking political instability, though. That’s why he keeps on saying he won’t order mobilization and pretended he was so shocked when conscripts ended up in Ukraine.

You're talking about marching into Crimea. Russian territory. At that point, all bets are off, up to and including nukes.

And those reserves are pretty much trash in terms of training, and I can’t imagine their morale and logistics will be any better than what we’ve seen thus far.

In a prepared defence? A Russian prepared defence. The same prepared defence mindset that has smashed every Ukrainian attempt at cutting the Russian LOCs. I will pit them on par with the Ukrainians.

[TopHatter]

Didn't help thus far. All Ukrainian attempts at cutting Russian LOCs failed miserably.

Well no, I wasn't talking about cutting Russian LOCs. I'm pointing out the home field advantages of Ukraine that Russia has the exact opposite of, plus mud.

The Russians would be working on shorter and even interior LOCs while Ukrainians would be stretching theirs.

All true. But the Ukrainians will still on home soil.

I really do not want to see an Ukrainian task group smashing onto a prepared Russian defence which the LNR/DNR/Crimea is already well situated as they are the launch points for their invasions.

Nor do I. Frankly I don't see Ukraine ever recovering LNR/DNR/Crimea, even with a mass-uprising of those residents that are sick to death of being victims of a Russian organized crime occupation/kleptocracy.

[Parihaka]

EU offers farmers aid, more land to grow due to Ukraine war

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union will distribute 500 million euros ($550 million) to help farmers and allow them to grow crops on fallow land to mitigate food price spikes and potential shortages resulting from Russia's war in Ukraine.
________

LoL, after decades of subsidizing them massively to the point of leaving their lands fallow for greater profit, now they'll pay them even more to start up production again.

[Officer of Engineers]

Well no, I wasn't talking about cutting Russian LOCs. I'm pointing out the home field advantages of Ukraine that Russia has the exact opposite of, plus mud.

All true. But the Ukrainians will still on home soil.

Think you're missing my point. The home field advantage isn't helping the Ukrainians any on the attack. They have yet to achieve any substantial OPOBJs. And Gen Mud is a damned traitor at times.

[zraver]

Think you're missing my point. The home field advantage isn't helping the Ukrainians any on the attack. They have yet to achieve any substantial OPOBJs. And Gen Mud is a damned traitor at times.

Sir, Google the Bucha Pocket. It's a developing motto NW of Kyiv.

In the South the UA has driven back from 10-50km in 3 days and Kherson is under threat of liberation.

[TopHatter]

Think you're missing my point. The home field advantage isn't helping the Ukrainians any on the attack. They have yet to achieve any substantial OPOBJs. And Gen Mud is a damned traitor at times.

Sir, we don't know that yet.

[astralis]

Speaking of Crimea, Ukraine launched a ballistic missile salvo against Sevastopol today.

[Mithridates]

The home field advantage isn't helping the Ukrainians any on the attack.

They're short of equipment and trained men. Desert Storm took months to ramp up, and it was staffed by professionals who had been working on their trade for years, and equipped with late model Cold War surplus available in great abundance. The Ukrainians are dealing with clapped-out way past its prime equipment and an army that was mostly a bunch of civilians just weeks ago.

Building up to an offensive will take time. If the Ukrainians are able to push the Russians back in months, that will likely be more progress than the Red Army was able to make against the Nazis during WWII in a similar amount of time, at huge cost in Soviet casualties. Ukraine could probably push the Russians back faster if they were willing to take 10x the Russian casualty count. The question is how you get citizens to sacrifice themselves in these numbers without tyrannical government impositions.