U.S. Response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

[TopHatter]

My takeaway was more positive i.e. yes Russia can replace some systems (like (T-90s) at rates more or less sufficient to replace losses but no more than that while other systems like jet engines or hyper-sonic missiles look like they can't be replaced at a rate that will permit sustained high levels of operational usage leading to long term, chronic supply constraints. What I found particularly was interesting was the rate the Russians are burning through armored vehicles. Yes they have some capacity to replace losses but only models currently in production. T-80s, T-72s and BMP-2s etc aren't manufactured new and can't be replaced except from stockpiles.

And Perun pointed out that the Russians appear to have lost most of the their pre-war, first line, fully upgraded T-80s and T-72s and have since started replacing them with less effective/well equipped upgrades form those stockpiles. If I read his figures correctly at current rates they will have burnt through most of their stockpile of surplus vehicles about 2025 or so. New production is simply nowhere near what's needed to replace war time losses.

All good points!

Something I needed to be reminded about....every Fencer, Bear, Backfire and Foxhound that is lost through operational or combat losses is gone for good.

[Monash]

All good points!

Something I needed to be reminded about....every Fencer, Bear, Backfire and Foxhound that is lost through operational or combat losses is gone for good.

Yep. But beyond that even their more modern Sukhoi series will have problems because the number of engines and other complex components that Russia can produce in a year to keep it's large fleet of combat aircraft in service doesn't seem to be equaling the total cumulative flight hours those aircraft are being asked to fly. Basically? New engine hours coming off the production line seem to be less than the engine hours required by Russia to sustain the current combat operations. So as was the case with land vehicles it looks like Putin is burning through flight hours faster than than they can be replenished.

And if that trend continues the only medium term option is reduced flight hours per unit until such time as an equilibrium is reached. Eventually I would hazard a guess that this is going to lead to a lot of otherwise flyable aircraft sitting around in hangers waiting for spares. And for all practical purposes any aircraft sitting in a hanger with it's guts open up waiting for a new engine or whatever is just as much a 'win' for Ukraine as one that has been shot down. At least in terms of all the good they do Russia.

[astralis]

We shouldn't waste any more time on this then and signal Ukraine it's time to surrender...or Biden can roll up his selling sleeves and go to work selling. It's been a half-azzed effort by our nation and the know-nothings appear to be gaining the day. Cheapest and most righteous war we've been involved in ages and the near-sighted whining is a damned shame.

the reality of the US system is that the more Biden sells something, the more the opposition will fight it.

given that there is a section of the House GOP EAGERLY looking to shut down the government, while one GOP Senator holds up Pentagon nominations, the Service Chief nervousness about aid going out and no replenishment coming in is real.

[Albany Rifles]

the reality of the US system is that the more Biden sells something, the more the opposition will fight it.

given that there is a section of the House GOP EAGERLY looking to shut down the government, while one GOP Senator holds up Pentagon nominations, the Service Chief nervousness about aid going out and no replenishment coming in is real.

Can completely confirm.

And as much as we may want to ignore it we have to keep an eye on both Korea & China

And as for ATACMS...I would rather see more European weapons used for those missions. It is not like we are not providing enough. We have provided an immense amount of gear and equipment. But don't overlook that we are also keeping the Ukrainian economy afloat. We are paying the bills that keep the lights on.

And frankly I think it is better for the Ukrainians to have more European aid and weapons. Why? Because it makes a long term customer for those industries which we need for the common defense to improve NATO's readiness in the future.

[S2]

"...It is not like we are not providing enough..."

If Ukraine hasn't won then we've not provided "enough".

"...it makes a long term customer for those industries..."

Ukraine without its Azov Sea ports, secure access to and through the Black Sea (including the Kerch Straits) and Crimea is a basket-case for mankind given a massive reduction in GNP coupled to a nation requiring immense reconstruction of housing and public/private infrastructure. It's economic viability must be secured. They seem willing to provide the blood. It's post-conflict security must be assured too. Only COLLECTIVE security would do that.

[Officer of Engineers]

"...It is not like we are not providing enough..."

If Ukraine hasn't won then we've not provided "enough".

Biden needs to eye on re-election. Pushing too much on the UKR will result on spent political capital he will never get back. I don't know about you but the Republic will survive without the UKR. I do know it will weaken with another Trump Administration. Within context, Biden cannot and willnot spend political capitol he needs to win re-election.

[Firestorm]

"...It is not like we are not providing enough..."

If Ukraine hasn't won then we've not provided "enough".

"...it makes a long term customer for those industries..."

Ukraine without its Azov Sea ports, secure access to and through the Black Sea (including the Kerch Straits) and Crimea is a basket-case for mankind given a massive reduction in GNP coupled to a nation requiring immense reconstruction of housing and public/private infrastructure. It's economic viability must be secured. They seem willing to provide the blood. It's post-conflict security must be assured too. Only COLLECTIVE security would do that.

This sounds scary. What if merely providing military hardware by itself is not actually enough for a Ukrainian victory which I understand means taking back Crimea and all other territory occupied by the Russians? What if they need more, beyond just weapons and equipment? Where would you draw the line?

[Monash]

This sounds scary. What if merely providing military hardware by itself is not actually enough for a Ukrainian victory which I understand means taking back Crimea and all other territory occupied by the Russians? What if they need more, beyond just weapons and equipment? Where would you draw the line?

That's what Zelenkyy's set as his governments minimum demands for a peace deal. It doesn't mean that's what he's actually going to get. The thing is the closer Ukraine gets to taking back all the territory it lost after Putin's invasion in 2022 the less inclined some members of NATO and many of the other nations currently supporting Ukraine's war effort are likely to be about continuing current levels of support. Prior to the current war the world had, for all practice purposes accepted Putin's takeover of Crimea, Donetsk & Luhansk as a fait accompli. Oh, most western nations weren't and still won't officially recognize the takeovers as legitimate nor will they recognize the puppet governments Putin installed afterwards but they weren't really prepared to do much, if anything about it.

So unless Russian resistance were to suddenly and magically collapse in all three Oblasts letting Ukraine just walk in and take them back I can see an impending frisson between what Zelenski demands and what the West is willing to support. Especially since they all know Putin has get something out of any peace deal because otherwise there's literally no incentive for Russia to sign one. And none of Ukraines supporters want to be stuck funding what would amount to a low level war along Ukraine' confrontation line with Russia indefinitely.

[Firestorm]

That's what Zelenkyy's set as his governments minimum demands for a peace deal. It doesn't mean that's what he's actually going to get. The thing is the closer Ukraine gets to taking back all the territory it lost after Putin's invasion in 2022 the less inclined some members of NATO and many of the other nations currently supporting Ukraine's war effort are likely to be about continuing current levels of support. ....

I understand that. I wasn't talking about what Zelensky wanted. I was asking S2. His previous posts claim western assistance to Ukraine has been half-assed and he also said Ukraine getting back their Azov sea ports and Crimea is absolutely necessary. So what if merely providing weapons and equipment and money is not enough to ensure that? How far does he want the US and NATO to go?

[Monash]

I understand that. I wasn't talking about what Zelensky wanted. I was asking S2. His previous posts claim western assistance to Ukraine has been half-assed and he also said Ukraine getting back their Azov sea ports and Crimea is absolutely necessary. So what if merely providing weapons and equipment and money is not enough to ensure that? How far does he want the US and NATO to go?

If it was just about blood I'd say Russian could sustain the war almost indefinitely. Certainly long enough to outlast Ukraine, given that while the west might help fund the war for Ukraine its not willing to fight it for them. However blood (relative population size) isn't the key issue.

Time is issue. We all tend to forget (well I do) that Russia, like Ukraine and its western allies is buring through cash, military equipment and supplies at a prodigious rate in order to sustain its war effort. Which wouldn't matter if Russia could sustain that level of effort indefinitely. It can't. The west on the other hand can, if it really had to it could sustain current levels of expenditure for the foreseeable future. (They'd hate doing it but they could do it.) The problem is Russia is not able to replace both money & equipment at the rate its being consumed. Putin is fighting the war by drawing on finite 'rainy day' funds built up over the previous two decades from oil and gas sales. When those are gone Russia's people have to start paying for the war in cash, which will ruin the economy. He's also drawing down on his stockpile of cold war era vehicles and munitions at a rapid rate. They are also finite and rapidly diminishing. From the analysis I've seen the cash will be all gone in about 2-3 years, most of the arms in less than that. Russian arms industry simply isn't up to the job of sustaining the war effort at the pace it's being fought.

If the above is correct the West needs to at least maintain (if not increase) its level of support for Ukraine for only a few years. After which Russia will have exhausted its capacity to sustain the war. The only slight problem? No-one wants to be funding this war through 2025.

[S2]

"...So what if merely providing weapons and equipment and money is not enough to ensure that...?"

"...merely..."? Really? Admittedly it's really a quite impressive list, although not close to what we could be providing.

We haven't provided all we could...by far. Ukraine hasn't asked for a single drop of our blood. Can you please be patient and exhaust these other possibilities before trying to bait me into BOOTS ON THE GROUND (Lord, I hate that stupid phrase).?

[Officer of Engineers]

[We haven't provided all we could...by far.

Yes, we are. We've stripped every resource we have and then some and in fact, broken treaty. There's no way Canada can now provide a Brigade Group in 30 days as demanded by NATO. All our readied stock has been sent to the UKR. I strongly suspect our allies are in the same boat. We're scrounging for LEO Is, not LEO IIs. Admittingly, we would have routed the Russians left, right, and centre by now but the UKR ain't us and they can't fight war like us but to expect us to fund their war like them is far out of the question. We've given them everything we can and then some and we broke Treaties doing so!

[S2]

"...Admittingly, we would have routed the Russians left, right, and centre by now..."

"WE" ain't happening without the USAF. "WE" hasn't come close to attempting a breach of lines this sophisticated in...FOREVER. "WE" haven't EXERCISED a division-sized force against a division-sized force in decades...much less oversaw an actual fighting war of this size, duration and intensity in...FOREVER.

We're not the teachers here. We're the students. This piss-ant Ukrainian army has bled and fought the world's second army to a screeching halt and reversed 54% of their seized lands in a battlefield environment unimagined by virtually all of us before it actually unfolded

"We've given them everything we can and then some..."

Colonel-should Ukraine, ummm...you know...cut a deal?

Maybe negotiate?

Quit?

Surrender?

'Cause it's ALL SO HARD FOR OUR FCUKIN' PRECIOUS CANADIAN BRIGADE GROUP?

Go and actually COUNT the brigade groups Ukraine has fighting now across the front from Kupyansk to Kherson because 100 brigade groups sorta equals 30 divisions. Anybody seen 30 divisions of ANYTHING any time recently? No.

Not even DESERT STORM.

And the Russians aren't the Iraqis. Not anymore.

NATO will have its chance to prove its worth should Ukraine lose. Russia will come again. Likely smarter for all of this.

It's what they do. DNA. Wonder if we'd actually die to defend Talinn?

Our enemy is before us right now. Easily seen and vulnerable.

Find a way to win or learn to grovel.

[zraver]

More than fought them to a standstill.... 230k dead and another 750k seriously wounded for a total of 1 million casualties recently admitted to plus however many are "missing" or had the misfortune to be part of the LNR/DNR forces.

Russia Quietly Orders 230k Certificates for Families of Dead Soldiers (msn.com)

Add in the half million or so men who fled and Russia has permanently lost 700k men and another 700k disabled... 1.4 million men or about 87,000 losses a month.

Russia started with 270k troops plus 50k-ish LNR/DNR troops. Conscription (5 waves) added another 700k, mobilization added another 150k, Penal units added another 60k plus covert mobilization of about 30k/mo for another 300k-ish. Total manpower so far= 1.4 million. That leaves about 400k troops on the Russian side plus whatever they can get back from the wounded or impress into service among the local occupied Ukrainians. Additionally nearly 10k Russians have called the I want to live hotline.

The Russian Army is keeping its manning and equipment levels up if just barely, but only by cutting corners. Much of the current force is Storm Z or BARS units and calling them second line is a compliment. Most of the fighting is done by regular troops who get better equipment but training is still lacking as Russia gutted its training formations early in the war. 90% of the pre-war Russian tank fleet is gone and I've seen pictures of T-55's, T-62's, at least 1 T-10M. Of the new tanks she is making The optics on the latest T-80BVM and T-90M's are a less sophisticated model than the Sosna-U's they started with (lic built French Thales Catherine FCS). Ditto the artillery park... Loss equal to about 1 in every 7 guns the Russians had plus the expenditure of at least 10 million rounds. D-20 and D-30 howitzers are being used to replace the losses and they are not a 1 for 1 substitution. Increasingly Russian artillery is towed. She is also running out of ammo. Russia plans to be able to make 2 million shells a year within the next 2 years. So in 2 years Russia will be able to spend 1 year replacing the shells she fired in just 3 months. Russian artillery fire is increasingly restricted dropping to about 5-6k shells a day from as many as 60k/day during the battles for Sievierodonetsk. Thats a 12x fall off. Between being shot downr ange and destroyed by Ukraine Russia's ammunition problems are massive even before accounting for a 40% dud rate

Not much better in the navy, They've lost a cruiser, 4 LST's and a sub we know of plus several frigates and corvettes damaged. It's unlikely they have any drydock berths left open. Thier log lines are wrecked, they've lost transports and strategic bombers to Ukraine's own deep strikes...Plus almost 100 aircraft (fixed and rotary) and hundreds more clapped out

Russian troops have all but vanished from the border with Norway. The NATO air forces added 2 whole new air forces with Sweden and Finland.

The only thing keeping Russia in the war and the thing we have to figure out how to beat are the drones. lancets and home brew FPS drones are wrecking both sides. It has made vehicular movement exceedingly dangerous and garnered Ukraine a lot of bad press though Russia is suffering as severely. Whomever cracks the drone riddle first is going to steal a march on the other. Russia's other ace are the FAB500 and 1500kilo glide bombs. The combo of drones, mines and big bombs has blunted Ukraine's efforts but not stopped them. Its WWI canadian style for Ukraine. artillery and infantry taking bites in a battle of attrition. The tank and IFV are going to need to be re-imagined for use in a war of stand off possibly AI powered weapons flying in skies filled with EW.

[Albany Rifles]

We haven't provided all we could...by far. Ukraine hasn't asked for a single drop of our blood. Can you please be patient and exhaust these other possibilities before trying to bait me into BOOTS ON THE GROUND (Lord, I hate that stupid phrase).?

Without knowing what is in the specifics in all of the bills passed by Congress and signed into law do we know what has been sent. A lot of assistance is not weapons based and is purposely opaque. I can guarantee I know more of what we are doing on a day to day basis than most in not all on the WAB based on my current job and I don't know the half of it.

And based on our Sustainment and Manpower issues within DOD, coupled with the GQP has decided to use DOD as a political punching bag, who knows what the JCS has told the POTUS and SECDEF we can draw from our own stocks? Keep in mind the Marines new doctrine could really place a dependence on those same ATACMs some want to send, especially in Pacific littoral operations.

And as the Colonel rightly says, banging the Ukraine drum by POTUS will damage his reelection chances. And if he isn't reelected you know damn straight all aid to Ukraine ceases before sundown on 20 JAN 2025.