U.S. Response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

[Albany Rifles]

Just finishing a heated (me bad) argument with a MAGA on another forum where the idiot is arguing that Biden has just made America and I quote 'suck Russia's dick ' by exchanging high value (his words) Russian agents for low value American citizens. He ignores it when you point out that this has been America's and its allies practice across multiple Administrations since the start of the cold war. Same when you tell him the Russians agents are spent assets because they can never be redeployed anywhere in the west again and refuses to 'put up' when you ask him to give examples of the last time that actually happened (I couldn't find any example in the last 20 years). And finally when asked if he'd gladly consider trading places with one prisoner and stay incarcerated in Russia indefinitely so that America no longer has to 'suck dick' (he uses this term a lot) you get called a raving lefty.

And this is the core constituency that may put Trump in power ant the end of the year. GOOD LUCK - you 'll need it.

Facts be facting...and they are pesky!

[Officer of Engineers]

As far as I can tell all the incidents you mention happened prior to the nations involved becoming members of NATO. I can't think of any instance where two current members ever came to blows with the possible exception of the cod war. And lets face it as military campaigns go it's hardly one for the annals.

Greece and Turkey over Cyprus. Canadian Company Group fought a pitch battle to keep the airport independent.

As for a war with Russia after (if) Ukraine joins NATO? It could happen I suppose. But then a war between Russia and NATO has always been a possibility since NATO's inception. That is the reason NATO was founded to begin with after all. If it did happen? Then assuming Ukraine wasn't the aggressor Article 6 comes into play. And no-one wants that, least of all Putin, not now or in the foreseeable future. Because if nothing else the war in Ukraine has proven Russia is not the military threat it once was. Which is not to say it shouldn't be respected as a potential adversary BTW. Just that I don't see Russian armored divisions pushing their way into central Germany any time soon. Putin might dream about doing that every night but the reality is that its not going to happen.

It won't be NATO vs Russia but the UKR vs Russia. Croatia attacked CANBAT and Serbia attacked DUTCHBAT long before both were offered membership. Once the UKR feels confident she has been well re-armed, with or without NATO membership, in fact, more likely without, she will do a Krajina.

As for China if Xi gets caught equipping Russia with munitions and equipment beyond the component level? He knows China will be heavily sanctioned and China is critically dependent on export income from sales to the west at the moment. China;s economy is too weak to stand another shock lie the one the housing market has undergone recently. He does not need another headache.

As weak as 1960's China? China got enough economic clout to fight a war with Russian lives.

Piecemeal sanctions? We have NOT sanctioned Russia anywhere close to North Korea and Xi got enough domestic market (how many IPhones are being sold in China AT FULL PRICE?) that the US cannot AFFORD to sanction fully.

I remind you, when Germany cross into Belgium at the start of WWII, France and Germany DID NOTHING to cut trade.

[Monash]

China will fight the US down to the last Russian. Did you actually think that KJU started replenishing Russia without Xi's ok?

Croatia attacked a NATO member TWICE (Medak Pocket and Krajina) and she is now a NATO member. Serbia attacked another NATO member and she is offered NATO membership. History does not support your position.

I can see another war with or without the UKR in NATO membership. She would be on her own.

As far as I can tell all the incidents you mention happened prior to the nations involved becoming members of NATO. I can't think of any instance where two current members ever came to blows with the possible exception of the cod war. And lets face it as military campaigns go it's hardly one for the annals.

As for a war with Russia after (if) Ukraine joins NATO? It could happen I suppose. But then a war between Russia and NATO has always been a possibility since NATO's inception. That is the reason NATO was founded to begin with after all. If it did happen? Then assuming Ukraine wasn't the aggressor Article 6 comes into play. And no-one wants that, least of all Putin, not now or in the foreseeable future. Because if nothing else the war in Ukraine has proven Russia is not the military threat it once was. Which is not to say it shouldn't be respected as a potential adversary BTW. Just that I don't see Russian armored divisions pushing their way into central Germany any time soon. Putin might dream about doing that every night but the reality is that its not going to happen.

As for China if Xi gets caught equipping Russia with munitions and equipment beyond the component level? He knows China will be heavily sanctioned and China is critically dependent on export income from sales to the west at the moment. China's economy is too weak to stand another shock like the one the housing market has undergone recently. He does not need another headache.

[Officer of Engineers]

The problem for Russia? Is that unless Putin can rearm and reorganize very quickly which, based on the production estimates I've seen is very unlikely. The projections I've seen indicate it's going to take Moscow 6-10 years to replace what they've lost (if they can at all in some cases) and produce or upgrade all the equipment they need for round two. If they don't do that and go in early? Then in short order they're back to using the same tactics they are now - infantry and guns. So IMO it's highly unlikely Putin will be ready before Ukraine is ready to enter NATO. And in the interim NATO (with or without the USA's assistance) will of course be doing what it can to rearm, resupply and train Ukraine's military. So I simply don't see Putin being keen to start a new war unless he is absolutely confident that he can win round two and win it quickly. Not after this costly fiasco.I also note that even if he can reequip and prepare a lot sooner than reports anticipate it's still going to be very hard/next to impossible for him to concentrate significant forces near the border and not have everyone notice!

China will fight the US down to the last Russian. Did you actually think that KJU started replenishing Russia without Xi's ok?

The problem for Ukraine? Is that even if it's 'inside the NATO tent' the other members won't support any move by it to initiate a war of reconquest and indeed could threaten to expel it if it tried, with all the consequences that would have. And again as per Russia it would be difficult for Ukraine to mobilize and prepare for an offensive without both Russia and NATO noticing. Besides which, by then Zelenskyy will be out of office (unless he decides to try and do a 'mini' Putin) in which case Ukraine will not be joining NATO. And any new leadership? By default has a doorway left open to negotiations precisely because they are not the government that fought the war.

Croatia attacked a NATO member TWICE (Medak Pocket and Krajina) and she is now a NATO member. Serbia attacked another NATO member and she is offered NATO membership. History does not support your position.

Oh I can definitely see a generational Golan heights/Korean DMZ type scenario developing with ongoing flare ups and provocations along both sides of the border (mostly the Russian one while Putin's alive) but NATO is going to be very, very interested in keeping the peace. And when Putin dies? Then we might start to see a real thaw. Even then though we'll all long dead before relations between Russia and Ukraine truly ever normalize. What can I say? I'm an optimist.

I can see another war with or without the UKR in NATO membership. She would be on her own.

[Monash]

What made you think there will be a permanent peace? Every indication is that both parties will build strength for a 2nd war. In the case of the UKR, they have limited time to outbuild the Russians.

The problem for Russia? Is that unless Putin can rearm and reorganize very quickly which, based on the production estimates I've seen is unlikely the projections indicate it's going to take Moscow 6-10 years to replace what they've lost (if they can at all in some cases). That and and produce all the smart munitions they need for round two. If they don't do that and go in early? Then in short order they're back to using the same tactics they are now - infantry and guns. So IMO it's highly unlikely Putin will be ready before Ukraine is ready to enter NATO. And in the interim NATO (with or without the USA's assistance) will of course be doing what it can to rearm, resupply and train Ukraine's military. So I simply don't see Putin being keen to start a new war unless he is absolutely confident that he can win round two and win it quickly. Not after this costly fiasco.I also note that even if he can reequip and prepare a lot sooner than reports anticipate it's still going to be very hard/next to impossible for him to concentrate significant forces near the border and not have everyone notice!

The problem for Ukraine? Is that even if it's 'inside the NATO tent' the other members won't support any move by it to initiate a war of reconquest and indeed could threaten to expel it if it tried, with all the consequences that would have. And again as per Russia it would be difficult for Ukraine to mobilize and prepare for an offensive without both Russia and NATO noticing. Besides which, by then Zelenskyy will be out of office (unless he decides to try and do a 'mini' Putin) in which case Ukraine will not be joining NATO. And any new leadership? By default has a doorway left open to negotiations precisely because they are not the government that fought the war.

Oh I can definitely see a generational Golan heights/Korean DMZ type scenario developing with ongoing flare ups and provocations along both sides of the border (mostly the Russian one while Putin's alive) but NATO is going to be very, very interested in keeping the peace. And when Putin dies? Then we might start to see a real thaw. Even then though we'll all long dead before relations between Russia and Ukraine truly ever normalize. What can I say? I'm an optimist.

[Officer of Engineers]

What made you think there will be a permanent peace? Every indication is that both parties will build strength for a 2nd war. In the case of the UKR, they have limited time to outbuild the Russians.

[Monash]

And we will bail them out. It is what we should do for a citizen...no matter how wrong headed they may be.

Just finishing a heated (me bad) argument with a MAGA on another forum where the idiot is arguing that Biden has just made America and I quote 'suck Russia's dick ' by exchanging high value (his words) Russian agents for low value American citizens. He ignores it when you point out that this has been America's and its allies practice across multiple Administrations since the start of the cold war. Same when you tell him the Russian agents are spent assets because they can never be redeployed anywhere in the west again and refuses to 'put up' when you ask him to give examples of the last time that actually happened (I couldn't find any example in the last 20 years). And finally when asked if he'd gladly consider trading places with one prisoner and stay incarcerated in Russia indefinitely so that America no longer has to 'suck dick' (he uses this term a lot) you get called a raving lefty.

And this is the core constituency that may put Trump in power ant the end of the year. GOOD LUCK - you 'll need it.

[Albany Rifles]

And good luck telling American 'adventure' tourist's what not to do or where not to go. You can issue all the official travel warnings you want but you cannot make a fool obey them.

And we will bail them out. It is what we should do for a citizen...no matter how wrong headed they may be.

[Monash]

How to avoid it...unless you are travelling on an official government sponsored visit...i.e., with diplomatic immunity & official passport...do not travel to Russia/China/Astan/NORK. Depend on news from stringers. Don't use dual nationals who are logical targets.

Don't go for pleasure tours!

And good luck telling American 'adventure' tourist's what not to do or where not to go. You can issue all the official travel warnings you want but you cannot make a fool obey them.

[Albany Rifles]

"Democrats and journalists exchanged for spies and criminals. Perhaps necessary but we cannot set ourselves in this position."

Saw this on twitter. There's a lot wrapped up in that very accurate observation. How to avoid more? Why we must avoid more. What this says about them and us. The elephant in the room is our refusal to call an enemy "an enemy"...and all which that means.

How to avoid it...unless you are travelling on an official government sponsored visit...i.e., with diplomatic immunity & official passport...do not travel to Russia/China/Astan/NORK. Depend on news from stringers. Don't use dual nationals who are logical targets.

Don't go for pleasure tours!

[Monash]

"You can't force them not to go..."

Oh, I don't know. Afterall, didn't you also make this point-

"it's now got to the point where a visit to Russia imposes all the risks that a visit to North Korea does."

Start there. Does the United States have an embassy mission in N. Korea?

Business? Don't we sanction Russians and fellow-travellers making profit from misery? Should any U.S. citizen making profit in Russia benefit from the protection of this state if their profit comes at the expense of our nation and our friends? Did Brittany Griner deserve our protection? I don't believe so.

There is no rapprochement with Russia. They are a remorseless enemy. So too others. Just the way it is. Efforts ignoring that fundamental fact only weaken us pointlessly while contributing to our enemy's goals.

The main problem I was thinking of was tourists, not business travelers. As long as sanctions are in place they should be pretty much a non-starter but for the rarest of exceptions.

[S2]

"You can't force them not to go..."

Oh, I don't know. Afterall, didn't you also make this point-

"it's now got to the point where a visit to Russia imposes all the risks that a visit to North Korea does."

Start there. Does the United States have an embassy mission in N. Korea?

Business? Don't we sanction Russians and fellow-travellers making profit from misery? Should any U.S. citizen making profit in Russia benefit from the protection of this state if their profit comes at the expense of our nation and our friends? Did Brittany Griner deserve our protection? I don't believe so.

There is no rapprochement with Russia. They are a remorseless enemy. So too others. Just the way it is. Efforts ignoring that fundamental fact only weaken us pointlessly while contributing to our enemy's goals.

[Monash]

"Democrats and journalists exchanged for spies and criminals. Perhaps necessary but we cannot set ourselves in this position."

Saw this on twitter. There's a lot wrapped up in that very accurate observation. How to avoid more? Why we must avoid more. What this says about them and us. The elephant in the room is our refusal to call an enemy "an enemy"...and all which that means.

Going to be hard to 'prevent more' if citizens of the West insist on traveling to Russia or working/living there for any length of time. You can't force them not to go but IMO it's now got to the point where a visit to Russia imposes all the risks that a visit to North Korea does. And US citizens still insist on traveling there even if not in great numbers. Journalist's in particular are at great risk and its a dilemma for their employers. Send them and you get reliable news coverage of events in Russia along with the almost certain knowledge that Moscow will imprison them the moment they need a hostage. Don't send them and your reliant Russian based 'journalists'. At which point you might as well give up and re-post Kremlin press releases!

[S2]

"Democrats and journalists exchanged for spies and criminals. Perhaps necessary but we cannot set ourselves in this position."

Saw this on twitter. There's a lot wrapped up in that very accurate observation. How to avoid more? Why we must avoid more. What this says about them and us. The elephant in the room is our refusal to call an enemy "an enemy"...and all which that means.

[Albany Rifles]

So Gershkovich and Whalen are on the way home!!!

Great job by all involved.

I am sure there is a ton more to come but the best tidbit I heard was 2 hours before President Biden released the statement he was no longer running for reelection on 21 July he was on the phone with the Serbian president negotiating the release of the last 2 Russian wants that were in a Serbian prison.