2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Officer of Engineers]

One other point to consider....you see all these nations over the past 25+ years who have clamored to join NATO...how many have clamored to join into the Russian camp?

Ironically, Georgia and Ukraine. They sided with Moscow against us during Operation ALLIED FORCE. Up until 2014, Kiev considered herself under the Russian nuclear umbrella, not American

[Bigfella]

It would weaken NATO and place the Baltics at risk.

One other point to consider....you see all these nations over the past 25+ years who have clamored to join NATO...how many have clamored to join into the Russian camp?

A bunch of dictators in Central Asia, one in Europe & another in the Middle East. And Armenia. The latter gets a pass to a point, but the rest neatly illustrate what Russia represents.

If you look at the timing of that first stampede to NATO post USSR breakup it coincided with Putin driving an army through Grozny. The next batch were only a few years later. They have tasted Russian rule & they don't want another helping.

[Albany Rifles]

Ironically, Georgia and Ukraine. They sided with Moscow against us during Operation ALLIED FORCE. Up until 2014, Kiev considered herself under the Russian nuclear umbrella, not American

BF has already said what I was going to say.

The prior Ukraine leadership was akin to Belarus's...lap dogs to USSR/Russia. They wanted to be in the Russian sphere of influence but not be subsumed to Russia.

But for the last 8 years they have veered much more to the West.

George W. Bush did bring it up to Ukraine in 2006 (?) but it fell on deaf ears...and the Western European nations were not amused. Since the Orange Revolution Ukraine has done what it can to be a European nation.

[rj1]

One other point to consider....you see all these nations over the past 25+ years who have clamored to join NATO...how many have clamored to join into the Russian camp?

Serbia, Armenia, Syria, Kazakhstan, Belarus

Anti-Orban folks in the EU would probably say Hungary.

Cyprus is effectively a satellite of Russian oligarch financial power, but importantly are inside the EU.

Not a who's who of powers admittedly.

[Officer of Engineers]

They didn't have much of a choice. Still don't. We're not going to pump the kind oif money they need/want into those countries. Russia is still the only economic life line they got. Notice how Kiev wants Washington to sanction NORD STREAM immediately but NOT Gazprom. That's because Kiev wants Moscow to pay transit fees for her gas to Western Europe through Ukrainian territories.

However, I point to you that at least half of Ukraine wants to join Russia. DNR/LNR and the Crimea don't see any insurgent activities against Russian rule.

[Officer of Engineers]

Oh, another thing. Kiev ain't ready for NATO membership by a long shot. They tried to screw Moscow out of money and still owe $billions to Gazprom (stole gas meant for Western Europe). The EU ruled in Moscow's favour and had to guarrantee payments for what Kiev stole to get the gas flowing again. That's why Nord Stream was built. To bypass the Ukrainian thievery.

[Albany Rifles]

Serbia, Armenia, Syria, Kazakhstan, Belarus

Anti-Orban folks in the EU would probably say Hungary.

Cyprus is effectively a satellite of Russian oligarch financial power, but importantly are inside the EU.

Not a who's who of powers admittedly.

Yeah...4 of the 5 never really left the USSR. The Kazaks did give us some basing rights for A'stan but there was never really any diplomatic or veer to the west. Syria has been a Soviet/Russian satellite for decades. The open basing was a survival mode by them to ensure support during their civil war.

Meanwhile who joined the EU & NATO....huge, huge difference. Since German reunification 14 nations have joined NATO and Sweden and Finland have openly discussed considering joining at some time in the future.

[Albany Rifles]

Oh, another thing. Kiev ain't ready for NATO membership by a long shot. They tried to screw Moscow out of money and still owe $billions to Gazprom (stole gas meant for Western Europe). The EU ruled in Moscow's favour and had to guarrantee payments for what Kiev stole to get the gas flowing again. That's why Nord Stream was built. To bypass the Ukrainian thievery.

No argument there Colonel. And I was not implying they were ready. Too much needs for them to fix politically & economically before they can even be considered.

[rj1]

Yeah...4 of the 5 never really left the USSR. The Kazaks did give us some basing rights for A'stan but there was never really any diplomatic or veer to the west. Syria has been a Soviet/Russian satellite for decades. The open basing was a survival mode by them to ensure support during their civil war.

Meanwhile who joined the EU & NATO....huge, huge difference. Since German reunification 14 nations have joined NATO and Sweden and Finland have openly discussed considering joining at some time in the future.

This just strikes me as "dying to be exposed as paper tiger" territory though because yeah, there's the U.S., but what about everyone else? NATO since German reunification 14 countries have joined per you and yet the overall non-American military capabilities of the alliance have declined. Does anyone think the Russian foreign policy and military apparatus have not observed this and it does not play into their decision making? This increases military burden on the U.S. to more singlehandedly fight for the continent, which is not an ideal situation either for the U.S. or for the state that needs defending. I harp on this a lot elsewhere but the Libyan conflict infuriated me. There was no American interest in Libya, it was purely a European security concern of boats crossing the Mediterranean, the Libyans did not attack France or Italy so there was rightfully no Article V invocation, and yet we had to come in to fight the conflict for them, primarily France who had just spent a couple years decrying us as warmongers in Iraq, yet when it benefitted them "by all means warmonger in Libya". If they couldn't do Libya on their own where no one was shooting back at them, what's their battle plan to fight against Russian armed forces rolling into Lithuania?

If the Russians look at NATO and think practically it cannot exist militarily outside of the U.S., then all they have to do is read the American domestic political situation and plan operations based on what they think the U.S. President is willing to do or not. What signal do people think the Afghan withdrawal sent?

[Albany Rifles]

Libya was really an EU task...however NATO had a vested interest in the migrant surge impacted the southern NATO countries. Also the Brits had shot up a lot of their smart weapons assisting us in Iraq & A'stan.

As for participation...Germany has only in the last 2 years overcome the immense financial hole they were in to par for reunification. Someone had to be a bill payer. Per Kato on here they are now investing in their defense. France gets a pass from me because they have been doing some serious heavy lifting in Africa giving us freedom to operate elsewhere. Our base at Djibouti provides a lot of log support to their missions which allows our SOF to go elsewhere.

As for not pulling their weight...I will tell you most of those new NATO nations are more than pulling their weight. They have been assisting us in A'stan, Iraq & Syria. And the Baltics, Poland, Rumania, and others are having to reinvest in newer weapons to be interchangeable with NATO. That has been very expensive...and at the same time transition to Western economies. That has not been an easy thing.

But to be honest, we get a lot back from NATO by having forces & facilities in Europe which allow us to operate effectively in that part of the world. Ramstein AFB is the European base for so much to be forwarded on all through EUCOM, CENTCOM & AFRICOM. That is just one example.

[Firestorm]

No argument there Colonel. And I was not implying they were ready. Too much needs for them to fix politically & economically before they can even be considered.

Even if they checked all the boxes to be eligible, what exactly is the military benefit to NATO of adding Ukraine to the roster other than saying a giant f*** you to Putin and pissing off the Russians even more than they are now? Seems like it just adds one more country to the list that needs NATO (read US) protection. The present situation itself is in no small part due to the Russia's deep fear of NATO expanding to its doorstep (which it has) when its own power has been on the decline for decades.

[Albany Rifles]

Even if they checked all the boxes to be eligible, what exactly is the military benefit to NATO of adding Ukraine to the roster other than saying a giant f*** you to Putin and pissing off the Russians even more than they are now? Seems like it just adds one more country to the list that needs NATO (read US) protection. The present situation itself is in no small part due to the Russia's deep fear of NATO expanding to its doorstep (which it has) when its own power has been on the decline for decades.

I see no net gain for NATO. I am not advocating for that...in fact if you look back a page or 2 I said I was willing to help Ukraine help itself. But Ukraine's independence to me is not worth one drop of American blood.

And there would have to a whole bunch of European nations on board before I want the US to even consider backing their joining. We should not be the lead.

[astralis]

Putin's Plan

Let's hear the comments!

[Officer of Engineers]

Searched his other writings. Looney toons. Romainia will not fight in the Ukraines. We won't let them. They go in. They're out of NATO.

[Officer of Engineers]

Even if they checked all the boxes to be eligible, what exactly is the military benefit to NATO of adding Ukraine to the roster other than saying a giant f*** you to Putin and pissing off the Russians even more than they are now? Seems like it just adds one more country to the list that needs NATO (read US) protection. The present situation itself is in no small part due to the Russia's deep fear of NATO expanding to its doorstep (which it has) when its own power has been on the decline for decades.

if they checked all the boxes, they wouldn't need us. They should not need us now. But if they do check all the boxes, they would be a military and economic powerhouse and a net contributor, not a net detriment to any alliance. The fact that Gen Miley accessed that Kiev is only a 72 hour Russian march screams at the Ukrainian incompetence. Russia should run out bombs long before the road to Kiev runs out of bunkers. Ain't going to be the case.

With over 5 years since the DNR/LNR debacle and one year since the last scare, Kiev has done squat all to make Russia think twice.