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  • the Ukrainians do not have anything close to 14 brigades there and they also do not have air superiority. to pull this off, they took some of their best troops out from the east. no reserves.

    Russian glide bombs and UAV proliferation is the major difference between this and the Kharkiv counteroffensive. the Ukrainians got hit hard doing a mobile probe at Giri.
    There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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    • Supposedly a Russian Ka-52 greased a couple of Ukrainian supply trucks. There was just one small problem.

      The trucks were Russian.

      https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1823944548403253453
      “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
        We had less than that at 73 Easting. If nothing else, burn the town and leave.
        IIn the youtube-Show "Nachgefragt", a German major general mentioned that the equivalent of 4 brigades are taking part in the Kursk offensive. There may be elements of 14 brigades, but not 14 complete brigades.

        Comment


        • Germany cuts Ukraine funding before how to actually use the frozen Russian assets is actually figured out.

          Germany to halt new Ukraine military aid: Report – POLITICO

          Comment


          • Z,

            I'm so embittered at my own administration's hesitancy, trepidation and, frankly, cowardice to pile on any German waffling. They've watched and followed this administration rather closely. This administration has never stated any desire to actively seek a Ukrainian victory. My sense is, internally, they actually think there's going to be this after-war period where Russia must be re-integrated back into the family of nations.

            Just. Like. Nothing. Ever. Happened.

            Perun offers his initial thoughts. As expected, thoughtful and thorough-

            "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
            "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

            Comment


            • Sounds like the UA has crossed the border into Bryansk region now.

              Comment


              • If anyone has a spare 27 minutes this presentation is an interesting take by William Spaniel on how a cease fire in Ukraine might 'try' to work under a 2nd Trump term in office and how Ukraine's incursion into Russia changes calculation's made when he was last in.

                https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDA2337lsJg
                Last edited by Monash; 25 Aug 24,, 01:43.
                If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Monash View Post
                  If anyone has a spare 27 minutes this presentation is an interesting take by William Spaniel on how a cease fire in Ukraine might 'try' to work under a 2nd Trump term in office and how Ukraine's incursion into Russia changes calculation's made when he was last in.

                  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDA2337lsJg
                  I REALLY like that guy's channel.
                  “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                  Comment


                  • Ukraine's Kursk incursion tests young Russian conscripts' mettle


                    Russian conscripts called up for military service depart from a recruitment centre in Bataysk

                    LONDON (Reuters) - The last time Liana spoke to her husband Husain before he was captured by Ukrainian troops, he said what he always told her: "Everything is fine."

                    Husain, a 21-year-old conscripted soldier, was dispatched with his Russian army unit in mid-July to a base in the western Kursk region that he said was nine miles (15 km) from the frontier with Ukraine.

                    When Husain phoned his wife on Aug. 4, he said the situation there seemed calm, Liana told Reuters. The only sign of the war in Ukraine was the buzz of drones overhead, protecting soldiers as they slept.

                    Two days later, thousands of Ukrainian troops smashed through the border into Kursk in a lightning attack that took Moscow by surprise.

                    For about three weeks, Liana heard nothing from Husain. Then, on Sunday, he called her from a Moscow hospital and said he had been released with more than 100 other Russian prisoners of war who had been captured in Kursk.

                    Husain told her his unit had come under heavy Ukrainian shelling, and that he and two other conscripts were the unit's only survivors.

                    Reuters could not independently verify Husain's account.

                    "He thought he was going to die," said Liana, 19, who spoke on condition that the couple's surnames not be used for fear of recriminations.

                    Liana is relieved that Husain, with whom she has an 18-month-old son, is alive. But she fears that her husband, who worked as a builder, will be sent back to fight in Kursk.

                    "He is still young, he just started to live," she said.

                    SENSITIVE ISSUE

                    Russian men are required to complete a year of military service before the age of 30, with about 280,000 called up each year. Ukraine's incursion has reopened public debate about whether raw and untested recruits should be thrown into battle.

                    Less than two weeks after sending troops into Ukraine in 2022, President Vladimir Putin said: "I emphasise that conscript soldiers are not participating in hostilities and will not participate in them."

                    The following day, Russia's defence ministry acknowledged some conscripts were fighting in Ukraine. Putin ordered an investigation and promised to punish the officials responsible.

                    Over two years later, investigations by the BBC Russian Service and independent Russian outlet Important Stories show hundreds of conscripts have been sent to Kursk to defend against Ukraine's advance. Dozens have gone missing or were captured.

                    Reuters confirmed the deaths of two conscripts from accounts posted by their families on social media.

                    Artyom Dobrodumsky won medals in children's karate competitions in the southern Rostov region, and graduated from a cadet school. He was 22 when he died in Kursk.

                    Daniil Rubtsov, who was raised in northwest Russia, received his army notice in December 2023. He hoped to become a police investigator, his mother told Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta. He died in the Kursk region on Aug. 7, aged 18.

                    Russian civil society groups that advise men on how to avoid military service say they are concerned about pressure on conscripts to sign contracts to become professional soldiers.

                    Alexei Tabalov, founder of legal support group Shkola Priziyvnika (Conscript School), said conscripts, many of them teenagers, are highly susceptible to such coercion.

                    "It's easy to fool them, manipulate them, blackmail them. You can threaten them and use physical force against them without any real consequences," Tabalov said by telephone.

                    He said many conscripted soldiers in Kursk had received little military training, and were treated like "service personnel" tasked with maintenance and other low-level tasks.

                    "Many say they didn't even have access to weapons, which confirms that they weren't considered to be participants in possible hostilities, or defending something," Tabalov said.

                    In recent days, he said, conscripts from areas including the far east and Bashkortostan near the Ural Mountains have sought his advice, saying they have been told they will be deployed to Kursk or the adjacent border regions of Bryansk and Belgorod.

                    Reuters was not able to determine how many conscripts have been sent to fight in those regions since Ukraine's incursion.

                    Asked about media reports that conscripts are being sent to Kursk and pressured to sign military contracts, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "Most often such reports are an absolute distortion of reality. We do not consider it necessary to comment".

                    EVERYONE 'MUST STAND IN FORMATION'

                    Following the incursion, a Russian military commander in Kursk dismissed parents' concerns that their sons may be too young or inexperienced to see battle.

                    "We should not turn 18-year-old conscripts, who are men, into children who have to be given a pacifier and sent off to bed," Major General Apti Alaudinov, commander of Chechnya's Akhmat special forces, said in a video message posted on Telegram. "Everyone in our country today, from the smallest to the greatest, must stand in formation."

                    Russian military analysts say it is unlikely that conscripts fighting in Kursk are prepared to meet battle-tested Ukrainian units.

                    Some of those captured were drafted in May or June and may have had only the minimum 45 days of training, said Pavel Luzin of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), a U.S. think-tank.

                    "The best thing the Russian conscripts can do is to turn themselves in to the Ukrainians immediately," said Nico Lange, a defence expert at CEPA. "They will not survive this."
                    ______
                    “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                    Comment


                    • It's very hard, for me, to find any kind of updated news. Do you folks have any online open sources you can share?

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                      • The Ukrainian partisan bloggers I read are starting to get angry at their allies.

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                        • Originally posted by jlvfr View Post
                          It's very hard, for me, to find any kind of updated news. Do you folks have any online open sources you can share?
                          I'm a fan of William Spaniel and Anders Puck Nielsen on YouTube. They usually upload every day or every couple of days.

                          Otherwise there's the usual Twitter sources that have been quoted here in the past.
                          “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by zraver View Post
                            Germany cuts Ukraine funding before how to actually use the frozen Russian assets is actually figured out.

                            Germany to halt new Ukraine military aid: Report – POLITICO
                            The German defense minister has found a spare 400 million Euro in his budget (mostly from heating costs for the Bundeswehr for last winter being under expectations) which it will use to buy equipment for Ukraine - on top of the 8 billion Euro budgeted for military assistance to Ukraine this year. For next year 4 billion are budgeted.

                            For some scale, these 400 million Euro extra are roughly the same amount that Australia has donated to Ukraine since the start of the war.

                            Comment


                            • It sucks to have enlisted in the Russian Navy as a motor machinist mate and now get to be a grunt machinegunner.

                              Well, there should be less smoke on the battlefield than aboard ship!

                              Russia Pulled Men Off The Carrier ‘Kuznetsov’ And Sent Them To Ukraine (forbes.com)


                              The Kremlin Pulled Sailors Off The Decrepit Aircraft Carrier ‘Admiral Kuznetsov’ And Sent Them To Fight, And Die, In Ukraine


                              The aging, damaged ‘Kuznetsov’ is unlikely to deploy ever again.

                              David Axe
                              Forbes Staff
                              David Axe writes about ships, planes, tanks, drones and missiles.
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                              5
                              Sep 22, 2024,04:55pm EDT
                              Updated Sep 22, 2024, 05:03pm EDT The Royal Navy destroyer HMS 'Dragon' shadows 'Admiral Kuznetsov' in 2014.

                              Wikimedia Commons

                              Admiral Kuznetsov, the Russian navy’s only aircraft carrier, hasn’t deployed in eight years—and it’s increasingly unlikely it will ever deploy again. That helps explain why, in recent months, the Kremlin reportedly reassigned the aging ship’s sailors to the army—and sent them into battle in Ukraine.

                              It’s a startling revelation that underscores the Russian army’s manpower crisis as Russia’s wider war on Ukraine grinds toward its 31st month—and also underlines the decrepit state of the Russian navy’s biggest warships, most of which are Cold War leftovers.

                              Open-source analyst Moklasen first reported the reassignment of some of the 58,000-ton Kuznetsov’s approximately 1,500-person crew. The sailors formed a so-called “frigate” mechanized battalion within the 1st Guards Tank Army, Moklasen concluded after scouring Russian social media for clues.

                              The frigate battalion fought around Kharkiv in northern Ukraine before shifting to the Pokrovsk axis in the east. Moklasen surmised that at least one former carrier crewman, Oleg Sosedov, went missing during a Russian attack in Kharkiv on July 23.

                              That the Russians are apparently pulling people from Kuznetsov isn’t surprising. The Kremlin is taking extreme measures to mobilize the 30,000 fresh troops it needs every month just to replace battlefield losses—killed, wounded and captured—in Ukraine.

                              The alternative to, say, stripping away ship’s crews might be a nationwide draft, which would be politically risky for the regime of Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin.

                              And besides, the rickety Kuznetsov isn’t about to return to sea. The 39-year-old flattop was supposed to leave the port of Murmansk, in northern Russia, back in the spring for the first time in eight years. Instead, the carrier remains pierside in Murmansk, in northern Russia.

                              Kuznetsov has completed just seven patrols since launching in 1985 and commissioning into the Soviet navy six years later. During the flattop’s most recent deployment, off the coast of Syria in 2016, the air wing lost two of its 24 jets to accidents in the span of just three weeks.

                              The crashes were the first in a long series of recent mishaps. Two years later in October 2018, Kuznetsov suffered serious damage when the drydock PD-50 sank while the carrier was aboard for repairs. Then, in December 2019, a fire broke out on Kuznetsov itself.

                              Fleet leaders considered decommissioning the damaged ship. Incredibly, the Kremlin opted to repair and modernize Kuznetsov, instead. The plan, at the time, was for Kuznetsov to return to sea in 2022. But another fire broke out in December 2022. Nearly two years later, the carrier is still stuck in port.

                              Any other navy might just cut its losses, decommission the scorched flattop and build a new carrier to replace it. But Russian industry probably isn’t capable of building a direct replacement for Kuznetsov or any other big warship—which is why so many of the Russian fleet’s bigger vessels are former Soviet ships with decades of wear and tear on their hulls and machinery.

                              “The main issue is engines,” said Pavel Luzin, a military expert at Russia’s Perm University. Ukrainian factories built most of the Soviet navy’s big marine engines. Needless to say, the Ukrainians no longer export these engines to Russia. And the Russians have struggled to set up local production of similar equipment.

                              So Kuznetsov molders, increasingly bereft of crew and likelier by the day to become a permanent resident of the Murmansk shoreline. And her sailors are fighting, and apparently dying, in Ukraine—victims of the same war of aggression that has deprived Kuznetsov of the heavy machinery it would need to continue sailing.

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                              David Axe
                              “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                              Mark Twain

                              Comment


                              • https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articl...09/17/7475408/

                                Ukrainian article about the Russian advance in Donetsk this year post-Avdiivka based on reports from servicemen and officers there, combined with the effects of the Kursk operation on the Russian offensive or lack thereof.

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