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  • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    I meant a repeat of the Kharkov campaign; wreck havoc amongst the Russian rear and not allow anytime for the Russians to mount even a hasty defence.

    My reaction is that I can see the Ukrainians doing a lot more and I'm frustrated that they're letting opportunities slip by.
    As I noted earlier Russia apparently had nothing much by way of a 'rear' in the Kursk sector to wreck. It seems to have been empty empty. So to do serious material damage to Russian forces the Ukrainians would need to conduct a long ranging sweep to the south behind the forces currently engaged in a push towards Kharkiv. For example? Its about 150K from Sudzha, one of the first towns captured by Ukrainian forces to Belgorod the main transport hub for Russian forces involved in the Khakiv offensive. That's a long/risky encirclement op to conduct with only limited forces even if you have caught the Russians with their pants down.
    If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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    • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
      Sorry, I missed this.

      The nuke question was answered 12 Aug when the Ukrainians crossed the border.

      I don't think the current Ukrainian offensive has enough combat power to reach artillery range of Moscow but they can open the road to Moscow. That in itself would induce Russian panic beyond what we're seeing.
      There's a universe of difference in terms of the threat assessment facing Putin between Ukraine crossing the border and seizing a thousand or so square klicks of farmland and small townships on the Russian side of the border border and it's army threatening to occupy Moscow.
      If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Monash View Post
        As I noted earlier Russia apparently had nothing much by way of a 'rear' in the Kursk sector to wreck. It seems to have been empty empty. So to do serious material damage to Russian forces the Ukrainians would need to conduct a long ranging sweep to the south behind the forces currently engaged in a push towards Kharkiv. For example? Its about 150K from Sudzha, one of the first towns captured by Ukrainian forces to Belgorod the main transport hub for Russian forces involved in the Khakiv offensive. That's a long/risky encirclement op to conduct with only limited forces even if you have caught the Russians with their pants down.
        And you describe a even better tactical situation. You can destroy obvious hubs before the Russians could respond.
        Chimo

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Monash View Post
          There's a universe of difference in terms of the threat assessment facing Putin between Ukraine crossing the border and seizing a thousand or so square klicks of farmland and small townships on the Russian side of the border border and it's army threatening to occupy Moscow.
          There's also a universe of difference between opening a road to Moscow and sitting at the city's gates.

          Chimo

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
            I'm not asking them to go through the Russian country side. I'm asking them to pour fresh forces through the breach (which they seemingly have by the way they're fortifying) to keep the Russians in disarray. Force on weak. The Russians can't get any weaker than having nothing in the area and even a single coy can dominate an entire city when the enemy is nowhere to be found.
            Sir, they simply may not have the kind the fresh forces you're thinking.
            “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
              And you describe a even better tactical situation. You can destroy obvious hubs before the Russians could respond.
              Sorry but a quick look at a map didn't seem to show a lot of 'hubs' or infrastructure to destroy close to the border in that sector, at least not until you get a lot closer to Kursk anyway. It is rural Russia we're talking about. It would be a bit like dropping a NATO division in northern Manitoba and telling them to run amok. I'm sure there's some critical infrastructure of potential military value they could destroy but you would be still using a lot of military force for very little gain.

              P.S. No offense to the fine people of Northern Manitoba intended. (Although why in Gods name there are any people living in Northern Manitoba is anyone's guess! Isn't it black fly country?)
              Last edited by Monash; 15 Aug 24,, 02:14.
              If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                Sir, they simply may not have the kind the fresh forces you're thinking.
                They have a lot more than the Russians have at the moment but that will change in the oncoming days,
                Chimo

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Monash View Post
                  Sorry but a quick look at a map didn't seem to show a lot of 'hubs' or infrastructure to destroy close to the border in that sector, at least not until you get a lot closer to Kursk anyway. It is rural Russia we're talking about. It would be a bit like dropping a NATO division in northern Manitoba and telling them to run amok. I'm sure there's some critical infrastructure of potential military value they could destroy but you would be still using a lot of military force for very comparative little gain.
                  Scorched earth.

                  Originally posted by Monash View Post
                  P.S. No offense to the fine people of Northern Manitoba intended. (Although why in Gods name there are any people living in Northern Manitoba is anyone's guess! Isn't it black fly country?)
                  Deer fly and there's oil.

                  Chimo

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                    And you describe a even better tactical situation. You can destroy obvious hubs before the Russians could respond.
                    So the question then becomes 'would it be militarily viable to conduct an encirclement op with a stepping off point on the Ukrainian side of the border opposite Sudzha with the aim of seizing/targeting Belgorod - using just one division?
                    If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                      They have a lot more than the Russians have at the moment but that will change in the oncoming days,
                      They're occupying a huge swath of Russian territory.

                      We don't know what they have. We can't possibly know what they have, where they have it and how many more they have available. They're occupying a huge swath of Russian territory.
                      “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Monash View Post
                        So the question then becomes 'would it be militarily viable to conduct an encirclement op with a stepping off point on the Ukrainian side of the border opposite Sudzha with the aim of seizing/targeting Belgorod - using just one division?
                        14 Brigades is 3 divisions and fortune favours the bold.

                        Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                        They're occupying a huge swath of Russian territory.
                        With near zero Russians.

                        Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                        We don't know what they have. We can't possibly know what they have, where they have it and how many more they have available.
                        Oh come on, Joe, if we know what the Russians have, don't you think we know what the Ukrainians also have? It's not like they're actively trying to hide from our satellites ... if they could even do that. Open source gives a very good clue to what they have committed and that includes the Russian milbloggers. The Russians would know at least what's shooting at them.
                        Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 15 Aug 24,, 03:09.
                        Chimo

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                          14 Brigades is 3 divisions and fortune favours the bold.
                          Is it really 14 brigades?

                          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                          With near zero Russians.
                          It's still a huge swath of enemy territory.

                          Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                          Oh come on, Joe, if we know what the Russians have, don't you think we know what the Ukrainians also have? It's not like they're actively trying to hide from our satellites ... if they could even do that. Open source gives a very good clue to what they have committed and that includes the Russian milbloggers. The Russians would know at least what's shooting at them.
                          Sir, open source intel is all well and good but it's only as good as the source. The Russians are likely in a panic. 1 Ukrainian tank becomes 5. Behind every tree is a Javelin team.

                          We also don't know what Ukraine's plans are. They could be doing an "old bull and young bull" thing.

                          We Simply Don't Know.
                          “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                          Comment


                          • Even if it is 14 Brigades? That's still only about one brigade covering a 10K frontage all the way to Belgorod. With nothing in reserve! Is that really militarily viable?
                            If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                              Is it really 14 brigades?
                              I'm confident of that assessment.

                              Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                              It's still a huge swath of enemy territory.
                              In BOTH our history, we controlled more with less. Afghanistan is the most recent example where we controlled similar size areas with company size garrisons and platoon houses.

                              Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                              Sir, open source intel is all well and good but it's only as good as the source.
                              Open source includes official sources as well.

                              Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                              The Russians are likely in a panic. 1 Ukrainian tank becomes 5. Behind every tree is a Javelin team.
                              There is such a thing as feeling your fire. Once the Russians detect insufficient fire (and why wouldn't they considering how they just toss bodies into the fight), they will know just how many tanks and JAVELINs there are,

                              Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                              We also don't know what Ukraine's plans are. They could be doing an "old bull and young bull" thing.
                              We do know their momentum and direction. We also know that they've slowed down.

                              Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                              We Simply Don't Know.
                              That wouldn't stop the Russians.
                              Chimo

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Monash View Post
                                Even if it is 14 Brigades? That's still only about one brigade covering a 10K frontage all the way to Belgorod. With nothing in reserve! Is that really militarily viable?
                                We had less than that at 73 Easting. If nothing else, burn the town and leave.
                                Chimo

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