Originally posted by Officer of Engineers
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2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War
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If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostSorry, I missed this.
The nuke question was answered 12 Aug when the Ukrainians crossed the border.
I don't think the current Ukrainian offensive has enough combat power to reach artillery range of Moscow but they can open the road to Moscow. That in itself would induce Russian panic beyond what we're seeing.If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.
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Originally posted by Monash View PostAs I noted earlier Russia apparently had nothing much by way of a 'rear' in the Kursk sector to wreck. It seems to have been empty empty. So to do serious material damage to Russian forces the Ukrainians would need to conduct a long ranging sweep to the south behind the forces currently engaged in a push towards Kharkiv. For example? Its about 150K from Sudzha, one of the first towns captured by Ukrainian forces to Belgorod the main transport hub for Russian forces involved in the Khakiv offensive. That's a long/risky encirclement op to conduct with only limited forces even if you have caught the Russians with their pants down.Chimo
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Originally posted by Monash View PostThere's a universe of difference in terms of the threat assessment facing Putin between Ukraine crossing the border and seizing a thousand or so square klicks of farmland and small townships on the Russian side of the border border and it's army threatening to occupy Moscow.
Chimo
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostI'm not asking them to go through the Russian country side. I'm asking them to pour fresh forces through the breach (which they seemingly have by the way they're fortifying) to keep the Russians in disarray. Force on weak. The Russians can't get any weaker than having nothing in the area and even a single coy can dominate an entire city when the enemy is nowhere to be found.“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostAnd you describe a even better tactical situation. You can destroy obvious hubs before the Russians could respond.
P.S. No offense to the fine people of Northern Manitoba intended. (Although why in Gods name there are any people living in Northern Manitoba is anyone's guess!Isn't it black fly country?)
Last edited by Monash; 15 Aug 24,, 02:14.If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.
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Originally posted by Monash View PostSorry but a quick look at a map didn't seem to show a lot of 'hubs' or infrastructure to destroy close to the border in that sector, at least not until you get a lot closer to Kursk anyway. It is rural Russia we're talking about. It would be a bit like dropping a NATO division in northern Manitoba and telling them to run amok. I'm sure there's some critical infrastructure of potential military value they could destroy but you would be still using a lot of military force for very comparative little gain.
Originally posted by Monash View PostP.S. No offense to the fine people of Northern Manitoba intended. (Although why in Gods name there are any people living in Northern Manitoba is anyone's guess!Isn't it black fly country?)
Chimo
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostAnd you describe a even better tactical situation. You can destroy obvious hubs before the Russians could respond.If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostThey have a lot more than the Russians have at the moment but that will change in the oncoming days,
We don't know what they have. We can't possibly know what they have, where they have it and how many more they have available. They're occupying a huge swath of Russian territory.“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
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Originally posted by Monash View PostSo the question then becomes 'would it be militarily viable to conduct an encirclement op with a stepping off point on the Ukrainian side of the border opposite Sudzha with the aim of seizing/targeting Belgorod - using just one division?
Originally posted by TopHatter View PostThey're occupying a huge swath of Russian territory.
Originally posted by TopHatter View PostWe don't know what they have. We can't possibly know what they have, where they have it and how many more they have available.
Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 15 Aug 24,, 03:09.Chimo
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Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post14 Brigades is 3 divisions and fortune favours the bold.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostWith near zero Russians.
Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostOh come on, Joe, if we know what the Russians have, don't you think we know what the Ukrainians also have? It's not like they're actively trying to hide from our satellites ... if they could even do that. Open source gives a very good clue to what they have committed and that includes the Russian milbloggers. The Russians would know at least what's shooting at them.
We also don't know what Ukraine's plans are. They could be doing an "old bull and young bull" thing.
We Simply Don't Know.
“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”
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Even if it is 14 Brigades? That's still only about one brigade covering a 10K frontage all the way to Belgorod. With nothing in reserve! Is that really militarily viable?If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.
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Originally posted by TopHatter View PostIs it really 14 brigades?
Originally posted by TopHatter View PostIt's still a huge swath of enemy territory.
Originally posted by TopHatter View PostSir, open source intel is all well and good but it's only as good as the source.
Originally posted by TopHatter View PostThe Russians are likely in a panic. 1 Ukrainian tank becomes 5. Behind every tree is a Javelin team.
Originally posted by TopHatter View PostWe also don't know what Ukraine's plans are. They could be doing an "old bull and young bull" thing.
Originally posted by TopHatter View PostWe Simply Don't Know.
Chimo
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Originally posted by Monash View PostEven if it is 14 Brigades? That's still only about one brigade covering a 10K frontage all the way to Belgorod. With nothing in reserve! Is that really militarily viable?
Chimo
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