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  • Originally posted by S2 View Post
    Russians invade. Rape, murder, destroy and steal. Ukrainians invade. Book reservations at restaurants and leave post-dinner online reviews. Complain about parking for Challengers and Leos.
    The most current joke in Kyiv today:

    Yuri: What is our army doing in Kursk?

    Ivan: They wanted to take a shit in their own toilets!
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
    Mark Twain

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    • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post

      Why does this invasion remind me of Lee's foray into Pennsylvania? Obvious not the same scale or scope of operations, but there seems to be quite a similar flavor.
      Let's hope they don't get entangled in another Gettysburg!

      When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

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      • I am still hoping the Ukrainians will decide to go 'wide' not deep across the border. By this I mean extend their zone of control inside Russia along and more or less parallel to it for as far as is practicable. And then dig in defensively. IMO? The problem with a a Ukrainian incursion or raid in force is that unless it's directed at critical infrastructure or a major population center (and this isn't) it only yields temporary benefits to Ukraine. If they withdraw fully as has been asserted? They get the morale and PR effects derived from having conducted a successful operation but only for as long as the raid continues. They force Russia to divert significant forces force to that sector and have the opportunity to engage them piece meal as they start to deploy (which they have been doing apparently) but again only temporarily because once Ukraine withdraws? Russia can simply revert to a defensive posture and heavily fortify ALL lightly defended parts of the border asap. Which of course means a second similar surprise/rapid breakthrough by Ukraine there or somewhere else in the future will be off the table in short order. Meanwhile Putin? Will spin the withdrawal as a great feat of Russian arms for domestic audiences and claim it as a massive Russian 'victory' with Ukraine fleeing the field. In short once they withdraw it's back to 'business as usual'.

        But if they can dig in a fortify along a reasonably broad stretch of ground of the Russian side of the border? That forces Putin to focus all of his energy there, he literally can't afford the long term political damage caused by 'letting' Ukraine occupy even a small strip of Russian territory. With proper planning and supply Ukraine could turn that section of the front into a killing zone at least for a few weeks before they pull back in an orderly fashion. Gods knows their troops defending other 'hot' sections of the front could use a rest. I'd at least try to hold some Russia territory till after the US election.
        If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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        • Originally posted by Monash View Post
          I am still hoping the Ukrainians will decide to go 'wide' not deep across the border.
          I wished to hell that I can understand what we're teaching the Ukrainians because this is a fuck up beyond my understanding. The Ukrainians are POISED to allow an entire DIVISION to pass through their breach. Only, there is NO PASS THROUGH DIVISION! Then, why do the fucking breach instead of an envelopment, to destroy an entire Russian brigade?

          I will allow others more senior than me to make their judgments BUT THE SUCCESS makes no sense without the proper follow through forces, 14 brigades? Why were they NOT organized into 2 divisions? Even div(-)?
          Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 14 Aug 24,, 04:10.
          Chimo

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          • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
            I wished to hell that I can understand what we're teaching the Ukrainians because this is a fuck up beyond my understanding. The Ukrainians are POISED to allow an entire DIVISION to pass through their breach. Only, there is NO PASS THROUGH DIVISION! Then, why do the fucking breach instead of an envelopment, to destroy an entire Russian brigade?

            I will allow others more senior than me to make their judgments BUT THE SUCCESS makes no sense without the proper follow through forces, 14 brigades? Why were they NOT organized into 2 divisions? Even div(-)?
            Sir most of the reports I've seen (from regular commentators on the war with military backgrounds) have been praising the Ukrainians for the manner in which they prepared and executed this offensive. At least to date they have been. Going forward from this point? Who knows?

            I would note that all the reports I've seen to date point to the lack of any significant Russian military forces in the area beyond a screen of apparently poorly trained and equipped conscripts basically just tasked with 'watching' the border. I haven't seen any reports at all indicating there was a properly equipped and deployed brigade of Russian regulars present in the sector before the offensive started. There may a have been the equivalent of a brigades worth of conscripts forward deployed there but that's NOT the same thing. And by all accounts those conscript formations present at the start of the op basically dissolved on contact and were scattered to the winds (that or surrendered in en-mass).

            As for having a fully formed division ready to follow through and exploit the gap. To date I haven't seen any reports that Ukraine actually conducts operations on the battlefield at the divisional level. As administrative units yes, but most operations seem to have involved brigade level offensives. (I could be wrong about this BTW I'm just saying I haven't seen any evidence of it.) But even if they did or are doing so now I would assume a lot depends on what their mission objectives were and importantly what resources they can assign to it. And lets face it Ukraine has been under al lot of pressure in multiple sectors for months now.

            If their objectives was to stage a proper breakthrough with the intention of exploiting the breach to attempt an encirclement of Russian forces to the north or south (or both)? That would probably require more than one division given the need to protect their own flanks from counterattack. And with their potentially limited means? An operation on that scale might well have been judged to be a bridge to far. If on the other hand their objective as to seize ground at a point of their choosing and force Russia to engage them there with forces diverted from elsewhere on the front while humiliating Putin in the process? That's a much more modest/conservative goal that allows them to scale back the operation in line with the resources available. In this latter scenario they can simply stop advancing once the amount of territory seized achieves the intended outcome withe resources committed.

            If they have the equivalent of a division being held in reserve (and I hope they do) and they are committed to some version of that last option? I hoping those reserves are committed to fighting a holding/delaying action so that the Uki's get the chance to break attacking Russian formations wholesale. With luck they could force Putin to focus everything he has on this one point in the line for months. And as I said previously up to the US election date would be good.
            Last edited by Monash; 14 Aug 24,, 11:54.
            If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Monash View Post
              Sir most of the reports I've seen (from regular commentators on the war with military backgrounds) have been praising the Ukrainians for the manner in which they prepared and executed this offensive. At least to date they have been. Going forward from this point? Who knows?
              It is PROPERLY EXECUTED. That's the whole point. The Ukrainians are in a position to do a lot more. Drive deeper into Russia. At this point, however, all I'm seeing is that they're waiting to be pushed back. The enemy was both physically and psychologically out of place. It seems that the Ukrainians planned every contingency except one - breaththrough.

              To put it in perspective, WAGNER threatened Moscow with far, far less.
              Chimo

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                It is PROPERLY EXECUTED. That's the whole point. The Ukrainians are in a position to do a lot more. Drive deeper into Russia. At this point, however, all I'm seeing is that they're waiting to be pushed back. The enemy was both physically and psychologically out of place. It seems that the Ukrainians planned every contingency except one - breaththrough.

                To put it in perspective, WAGNER threatened Moscow with far, far less.
                "Reaching Moscow' even if physically possible wouldn't help because Putin and his government wouldn't be there when they arrived and threatened enough? He'd use a tactical nuke to make Ukraine back off. The main problem? Most of their forces are tied up defending the borders. What they've using in Russia now is probably most of their uncommitted reserves.
                Last edited by Monash; 15 Aug 24,, 00:53.
                If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Monash View Post

                  "Reaching Moscow' even if possible physically possible wouldn't help because Putin and his government wouldn't be there when they arrived and threatened enough? He'd use a tactical nuke to make Ukraine back off. The main problem? Most of their forces are tied up defending the borders. What they've using in Russia now is probably most of their uncommitted reserves.
                  I think one of the key points we are seeing is the Ukrainians are using a lot of donated weapon systems on this attack...Strykers, M113s, Boxers, etc. I see 2 reasons for this. 1. They want to show the West they know how to use the donated weapons in a maneuver warfare scenario to encourage additional materiel support. This includes new F-16s providing CAS & CAP. 2. They have also selected the vehicles which are more survivable as well as much more mechanically reliable. Helps ensure vehicles make it all the way back as well as their crews.
                  “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                  Mark Twain

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                    I wished to hell that I can understand what we're teaching the Ukrainians because this is a fuck up beyond my understanding. The Ukrainians are POISED to allow an entire DIVISION to pass through their breach. Only, there is NO PASS THROUGH DIVISION! Then, why do the fucking breach instead of an envelopment, to destroy an entire Russian brigade?
                    I would say they're following the old adage: "We must do what we can, when we can, with what we have."

                    Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                    I will allow others more senior than me to make their judgments BUT THE SUCCESS makes no sense without the proper follow through forces, 14 brigades? Why were they NOT organized into 2 divisions? Even div(-)?
                    I'm not senior to anybody and am certainly in no position to make judgements of any kind, but it's almost certain that the Ukrainian Army doesn't have the C2 capability and/or experience to conduct division operations.

                    So, they're doing what they can with what they have.


                    “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                      I would say they're following the old adage: "We must do what we can, when we can, with what we have."
                      That they could have done more before the Russians reacted is what I'm saying. They could have repeated Kharkov.

                      Chimo

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                        That they could have done more before the Russians reacted is what I'm saying. They could have repeated Kharkov.
                        I mean, could they? The Russians have fortified the hell out of their holdings in Ukraine...but clearly didn't do so in Kursk. So they hit the "soft underbelly" of Russia.
                        “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                          I mean, could they? The Russians have fortified the hell out of their holdings in Ukraine...but clearly didn't do so in Kursk. So they hit the "soft underbelly" of Russia.
                          I meant a repeat of the Kharkov campaign; wreck havoc amongst the Russian rear and not allow anytime for the Russians to mount even a hasty defence.

                          My reaction is that I can see the Ukrainians doing a lot more and I'm frustrated that they're letting opportunities slip by.
                          Chimo

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Monash View Post
                            "Reaching Moscow' even if physically possible wouldn't help because Putin and his government wouldn't be there when they arrived and threatened enough? He'd use a tactical nuke to make Ukraine back off. The main problem? Most of their forces are tied up defending the borders. What they've using in Russia now is probably most of their uncommitted reserves.
                            Sorry, I missed this.

                            The nuke question was answered 12 Aug when the Ukrainians crossed the border.

                            I don't think the current Ukrainian offensive has enough combat power to reach artillery range of Moscow but they can open the road to Moscow. That in itself would induce Russian panic beyond what we're seeing.
                            Chimo

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                              I meant a repeat of the Kharkov campaign; wreck havoc amongst the Russian rear and not allow anytime for the Russians to mount even a hasty defence.

                              My reaction is that I can see the Ukrainians doing a lot more and I'm frustrated that they're letting opportunities slip by.
                              OK but...this isn't the Kharkov campaign. They're neither the Wehrmacht nor the Red Army. They can't go tearing through the Russian countryside like it's World War II.

                              You're making a false equivalency here, by an order of magnitude.
                              “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                                OK but...this isn't the Kharkov campaign. They're neither the Wehrmacht nor the Red Army. They can't go tearing through the Russian countryside like it's World War II.

                                You're making a false equivalency here, by an order of magnitude.
                                I'm not asking them to go through the Russian country side. I'm asking them to pour fresh forces through the breach (which they seemingly have by the way they're fortifying) to keep the Russians in disarray. Force on weak. The Russians can't get any weaker than having nothing in the area and even a single coy can dominate an entire city when the enemy is nowhere to be found.
                                Chimo

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