2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Ironduke]

I read somewhere the Russians literally piled a bunch of tires near the base of one of the cooling towers and lit them on fire. To attention whore/scaremonger or something.

[Monash]

What might would sense is a a high intensity drone attack on the power lines leading away from the power plants, then Russian citizens can start to appreciate the joys of living with semi permanent rolling blackouts. I'm kind of surprised it hasn't been tried already.

[Triple C]

It is bizarre to me that a force of 2k troops pierced a military border to a depth of 30km and kept going.

https://youtu.be/YIyRLUlxtjA?si=XtNOecqrSyht8c6q

According to Dr. Torsten Heinrich, Russian bloggers are befuddled and seeing Ukrainian breakthroughs everywhere. They also stated that Russia is redeploying reserves to defend Kursk, possibly weakening their offensive operations in the Donbas.

[Monash]

It is bizarre to me that a force of 2k troops pierced a military border to a depth of 30km and kept going.

https://youtu.be/YIyRLUlxtjA?si=XtNOecqrSyht8c6q

According to Dr. Torsten Heinrich, Russian bloggers are befuddled and seeing Ukrainian breakthroughs everywhere. They also stated that Russia is redeploying reserves to defend Kursk, possibly weakening their offensive operations in the Donbas.

Some sources are claiming the actual force is much larger and that the 2000 number relates to the lead elements who crossed the border first. I've seen reports that Ukrainians have allegedly advanced almost 30K towards Kursk. If true there's no way just 2000 men could achieve that, not unless the they are on a suicide mission and don't give a rats about securing their flanks as they advance. That or Russian troops are just waving them through checkpoints as they drive down the highway towards Kursk! And I don't think either of those scenarios is likely so IMO that means the most likely explanation is simply that the Uki's are 'reinforcing success' i.e. feeding in more troops based on advances being achieved by their lead elements.

And why not? If they can hold at least part of what they've taken despite Putin's best efforts? They have a nice bargaining chip to play with Moscow. Hell I'd be all in favor of the UKis trying the same thing again further north along the frontier to gain additional territory. If they can hold a strip of Russian territory 10-20K deep? Putin will have no choice but to redirect maximum effort towards recapturing Russian territory, not Ukrainian territory. All of which gives Ukrainian troops elsewhere a breather and a chance to bolster their defenses.

[Albany Rifles]

I can't help myself...

[TopHatter]

It is bizarre to me that a force of 2k troops pierced a military border to a depth of 30km and kept going.

Same here.

I mean, intellectually i know the absolute border isn't where the defensive positions are located

and I know that Russia isn't exactly awash in well-trained and well-led manpower equipped with top-flight gear....but still, holy f--k knuckles this is WILD.

Above all else, I would commit many Class 3 misdemeanors to know how they're sustaining those units so far into Russia. What does the Ukrainian logistical tether look like? Are they foraging/confiscating locally? Are Russian units leaving behind supplies aplenty? All of the above? A log dog needs to know!

[Albany Rifles]

Same here.

I mean, intellectually i know the absolute border isn't where the defensive positions are located

and I know that Russia isn't exactly awash in well-trained and well-led manpower equipped with top-flight gear....but still, holy f--k knuckles this is WILD.

Above all else, I would commit many Class 3 misdemeanors to know how they're sustaining those units so far into Russia. What does the Ukrainian logistical tether look like? Are they foraging/confiscating locally? Are Russian units leaving behind supplies aplenty? All of the above? A log dog needs to know!

From what I have been able to figure out is the UAF have managed to keep a main supply line open back to Ukraine. They are medevacing back to UKR no problem. I am betting they maxloaded vehicles with ammo, fuel, water & food...in that order. Also I believe they have supply vehicles closed up with the attacking forces. I say this because they seem to be employing more of a Western style of doctrine. But since much of their gear matches with Russians I am sure they are scrounging and cannibalizing destroyed gear.

To be honest I am flashing back to Grant crossing the Mississippi in April 1862. As he headed inland he only allowed wounded back and ammo forward. Everything else was scrounged.

[Amled]

Same here.

I mean, intellectually i know the absolute border isn't where the defensive positions are located

and I know that Russia isn't exactly awash in well-trained and well-led manpower equipped with top-flight gear....but still, holy f--k knuckles this is WILD.

Above all else, I would commit many Class 3 misdemeanors to know how they're sustaining those units so far into Russia. What does the Ukrainian logistical tether look like? Are they foraging/confiscating locally? Are Russian units leaving behind supplies aplenty? All of the above? A log dog needs to know!

A military analyst talking head on one of our news stations mentioned that Russia may be thinking of using their internal security forces to combat the Ukrainian incursion. As they might not want to pull their troops back from the front lines?
Now in my (admittedly layman’s) view is that really a winning proposition? Pitting forces that are usually used in guarding government installations, or used to crack heads of demonstrators? Putting them up against the; by now battle hardened, Ukrainians?
But then again maybe the Russians are down to scraping the bottom of the barrel!

[Monash]

I have read reports that the the section of border Ukraine crossed was only defended by a light screen of conscripts who basically fled in panic as soon as the shooting started. If true? This would imply Russia literally had no experienced, front line troops, artillery or any other regular support units in reserve in that sector, not even units drawn back from elsewhere on the front to rest and reequip apparently. The report also quoted Russian bloggers as stating that Russian authorities were desperately trying to reform any fleeing conscripts they can find back into useful formations. If all of that is true and Ukraine is reinforcing as it advances then it's going to take days for Russia to move and deploy sufficient forces along that section of front to halt the advance, let alone launch any kind of effective counterattack.

[Albany Rifles]

I have read reports that the the section of border Ukraine crossed was only defended by a light screen of conscripts who basically fled in panic as soon as the shooting started. If true? This would imply Russia literally had no experienced, front line troops, artillery or any other regular support units in reserve in that sector, not even units drawn back from elsewhere on the front to rest and reequip apparently. The report also quoted Russian bloggers as stating that Russian authorities were desperately trying to reform any fleeing conscripts they can find back into useful formations. If all of that is true and Ukraine is reinforcing as it advances then it's going to take days for Russia to move and deploy sufficient forces along that section of front to halt the advance, let alone launch any kind of effective counterattack.

There are numerous reports the Ukrainians included some of their crown jewels (the HIMARS systems) with the attacking forces. They have been used successfully to disrupt and destroy counterattacking forces. One convoy they caught was composed of T-80s on their transporter trucks...all destroyed. The most effective force against them by the RUS have been drones & RPVs.

The are really looking like they really have their act together and have rehearsed well for this. Their OPSEC has been excellent. And their logistics have been spot on. I have seen a lot of Strykers and M113s...smart as these are proven reliable vehicles which don't break down with a minimum of maintenance by the crews. We road marched a battalion's worth of M113s in 1983 in Germany for over 350 kms with no breakdowns because our operators took care of their vehicles.

[Albany Rifles]

A report on how Russia is reacting. Air attacks can greatly hamper an attack but unless it is overwhelming it can't stop an offensive. What has to be factored in is what are the attacking UKR commander's orders. I.E., when you accomplish X withdraw your forces.

Russia strikes back at Ukrainian forces in Kursk region | Reuters

Russia strikes back at Ukrainian forces in Kursk region

By Guy Faulconbridge and Lidia Kelly

August 13, 20249:40 AM EDT

MOSCOW, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Russian forces on Tuesday struck back at Ukrainian troops with missiles, drones and airstrikes in actions that one senior commander said had halted Ukraine's advance after the biggest attack on sovereign Russian territory since the war began.
Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers smashed through the Russian border a week ago in a surprise attack that Russian President Vladimir Putin said was aimed at improving Kyiv's negotiating position ahead of possible talks and slowing the advance of Russian forces along the front.

The Ukrainian forces carved out a slice of Russian territory, prompting Moscow to evacuate almost 200,000 people while it rushed in reserves.
Russian war bloggers reported intense battles across the Kursk front as the Ukrainians tried to expand their control, though they said Russia was bringing in soldiers and heavy weaponry and had repelled many Ukrainian attacks.
Russia's defence ministry published images of Sukhoi Su-34 bombers striking at what it said were Ukrainian troops in the Kursk border region and said it had repelled attacks at villages about 26-28 km (16-17 miles) from the border.


Russian forces had destroyed a total of 35 Ukrainian tanks, 31 armoured personnel carriers, 18 infantry fighting vehicles, and 179 other armoured vehicles during in the week-long battle, it said.
"The uncontrolled ride of the enemy has already been halted," said Major General Apti Alaudinov, the commander of the Chechen Akhmat special forces unit. "The enemy is already aware that the blitzkrieg that it planned did not work out."

It was not clear which side was in control of the Russian town of Sudzha, through which Russia delivers gas from Western Siberia through Ukraine and on to Slovakia and other European Union countries. Gazprom said Tuesday it was still pumping gas to Ukraine through Sudzha.
Kursk's acting governor, Alexei Smirnov, said on Monday that Ukraine controlled 28 settlements in the region, and the incursion was about 12 km deep and 40 km wide. Ukraine claimed it controlled 1,000 square km (386 square miles) of Russian, more than double what the Russian figures indicate.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western leaders said they would help Ukraine defeat Russian troops on the battlefield and drive them out.




Ukrainian servicemen ride a military vehicle near the Russian border in Sumy region, Ukraine August 12, 2024.

Ukraine recaptured large swathes of territory in 2022. But its counteroffensive in 2023 failed to pierce heavily dug-in Russian lines, and Russian forces have been advancing this year deeper into Ukrainian territory. Russia controls just under one fifth of territory internationally recognised as Ukraine.

PUTIN PLEDGE

At his Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, Putin told officials that Russia would force out the Ukrainian troops, saying Russian forces were speeding up their advance along other parts of the front.
Still, the foreign occupation of Russian land was an embarrassment for the army and for Putin. The Ukrainian incursion is the most serious into Russia since the June 1941 invasion by Nazi Germany, which turned on the 1943 Battle of Kursk.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Ukrainians in his nightly address that the operation in Russia was a matter of Ukrainian security and the Kursk region had been used by Russia to launch many strikes against Ukraine.
But by dedicating forces to Kursk, Ukraine may leave other parts of the front exposed just as Russia has been advancing. Russia which has a far larger army, could try to encircle Ukrainian forces.
Ukraine's Western backers, which have been keen to avoid an escalation of the war into a direct confrontation between Russia and the U.S.-led NATO, said they had no prior warning of the Ukrainian offensive.
Putin said the West was using Ukraine to fight a proxy war with Russia and the border incursion was an attempt to undermine Russian domestic stability.
Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) said Zelenskiy was taking crazy steps that risked an escalation far beyond Ukraine's borders.
In Kursk, 121,000 people had already left or have been evacuated and another 59,000 were in the process of being evacuated, local officials said. In Russia's Belgorod region, which borders Kursk, 11,000 civilians were also evacuated, the region's governor said.

[Triple C]

Russia has been rushing conscripts, border guards and Rusgardia to reinforce this area. They had not stopped the Ukrainian attack.Their baptism of fire by some of Ukraine's most battle-hardened brigades couldn't have gone well. Will Russia take the bait and transfer their best troops from the Donbas?

[TopHatter]

A report on how Russia is reacting. Air attacks can greatly hamper an attack but unless it is overwhelming it can't stop an offensive. What has to be factored in is what are the attacking UKR commander's orders. I.E., when you accomplish X withdraw your forces.

[URL="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-keeps-up-air-attacks-kursk-putin-lashes-out-west-2024-08-13/"]Russia strikes back at Ukrainian forces in Kursk region | Reuters[/URL

Why does this invasion remind me of Lee's foray into Pennsylvania? Obvious not the same scale or scope of operations, but there seems to be quite a similar flavor.

[S2]

Russians invade. Rape, murder, destroy and steal. Ukrainians invade. Book reservations at restaurants and leave post-dinner online reviews. Complain about parking for Challengers and Leos.

[Albany Rifles]

ChrisO has been a regular, and more importantly, a thoughtful and accurate poster on Twitter over the past few years. Always read and pay attention to his reports. This is an interesting feed. The highlighted parts are by me and what I think the most important.


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1/ The Russian publication 'Interesting Stories' has published a lengthy interview with a former Russian army officer who opposed the invasion of Ukraine. He explains how the Ukrainians were able to invade the Kursk region so easily. Here are some extracts. ⬇️
2/ The former officer comments that the Russian Volunteer Corps and Freedom of Russia Legion began mounting raids into the Kursk region in March 2024. This was done to observe "how quickly they respond to your arrival, how many forces are there, where, what, how."
3/ While the Ukrainians were gathering intelligence on the ground, the officer says, the Russians didn't react: "what changed on our side [on the border] in six months? Fucking nothing."
4/ And when all these raids on the Kursk direction started, the border guards only had light firearms, no heavy equipment, and the border was practically always open. But nothing changed in six months.
5/ Authorities allocated money to strengthen the border: ‘dragon’s teeth,’ trenches were supposedly dug — but mostly, the money, as usual, was fucked up [i.e. stolen]."

6/ Those on the border knew something was up, he says, but were brushed off by the general command. "As usual, all requests up the chain were met with: ‘We have everything under control; intelligence reports that nothing has been noticed.’"
7/ When the Ukrainians began their offensive, "they arrived in groups and just started pushing forward without securing positions. Just further and further — one swift push."
8/ "Because if they were to secure positions, it would give us more time and opportunities to bring in troops to stop them. So they just push forward as fast as possible, while ours are talking shit, arguing, showing up, and filming reports.
9/ "As they say in the army: ‘If you want to defeat Russia, declare war, and it will fuck itself up with inspections.’"
10/ The main Ukrainian force has been preceded by a screening force of long-range sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRGs) which "go even further — and start digging in. And when the Russian troops finally show up, the DRGs start attacking them."
11/ "In this situation, our forces didn’t just respond late — they didn’t respond [properly] at all ... they surrender in whole packs, because, firstly, the conscripts don’t know how to fight, and secondly, they don’t have the weapons to repel such attacks."
12/ The former officer says that the Ukrainian offensive has been aided by catastrophically poor Russian command decisions, such as the sending of hundreds of troops in a convoy that was obliterated by HIMARS strikes at Rylsk on the night of 9 August.

13/ "At least on the front line, after some time and massive losses, they figured out that driving in a convoy is suicide. But those sitting here still drive in convoys and think they’re going to a parade.
14/ "The AFU has drones, has rockets — what kind of fucking idiot would lead a convoy in this case, and one that’s even being filmed for the news. That’s why the guys died, without even getting there."
15/ He doubts that the Ukrainians will go much further into Russia, as the line of the breakthrough is small and there is a significant risk of encirclement. "As soon as our forces start doing something right and pull in reserves, they can block the [AFU] approaches from Ukraine.
16/ "The Russian army will encircle them, stop the flow of resources, then just tighten the ring and destroy them all."

As for the local civilians, the former officer believes they will be written off by the Russian authorities.
17/ "Since this is Russia, we won’t give a fuck about the civilians left there. It’s already clear that the locals have been abandoned to fend for themselves — people there are on their own.
18/ "They’ll level everything with artillery and aviation: after all, what is Kursk Oblast compared to Russia?”