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  • Originally posted by Monash View Post

    Good post, and yes its partly a phrasing problem I was thinking in in terms of a failure (at the top), in 'front end' planning not the 'back end' - in this case logistical planning. E.G.If your the guy in charge preparing 'War Plan Orange' one of the important contingencies would be how much fuel and munitions to be need and where should it be positioned. To my mind it's then your job to see that both are available if necessary, not your logicians.
    Excellent point! I was a no, kidding for real log planner for what turned out to be OIF 1. Worked in the fuel & ammo planning cell. The hard thing to get across to the G3 Plans & Operations folks was they needed to tell us the planned operational tempo (OPTEMPO) before we could tell them how much fuel, how many fuel units & expected refuel points. Same on expected intensity of combat and how much artillery v air they planned to use. We had all the algorithms but we needed the variables. I remember in one "heated discussion" between a G4 & G3 major when the log guy finally yelled "Don't you remember in CGSC (staff college) when it was pointed out how this works? The G3 guy admitted he had blown it off! As it turn out wouldn't matter. We didn't get the units mobilized we wanted so the plan was thrown out the window and we had to fly by the seats of our pants!
    “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
    Mark Twain

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    • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post
      so the plan was thrown out the window and we had to fly by the seats of our pants!
      The could be the slogan/epitaph of every logistics officer in the history of warfare. ;)

      sigpic

      Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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      • Originally posted by Bigfella View Post

        The could be the slogan/epitaph of every logistics officer in the history of warfare. ;)
        And people wonder why we logisticians drink....
        “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
        Mark Twain

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        • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post

          And people wonder why we logisticians drink....
          I just figured it was because y'all were corrupt motherf*****s who had the best opportunity to steal the best stuff - booze is usually the first to go.

          I come from a family of wharfies, we know how shit works.
          sigpic

          Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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          • Which explains the nice shiny new JLTV sitting in AR's driveway, you know the one that written off in an 'unfortunate accident' just before he retired.
            Last edited by Monash; 28 Jul 24,, 01:12.
            If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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            • Originally posted by Monash View Post
              Which explains the nice shiny new JLTV sitting in AR's driveway, you know the one that written off in a 'unfortunate accident' just before he retired.
              https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc...PWJW/giphy.gif
              “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
              Mark Twain

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              • Apparently Ukraine nixxed another TU-22M3 in a deep strike with a drone.

                Ukrainian drones destroy strategic bomber in daring Arctic attack (msn.com)

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                • The old adage "Everyone trains and prepares for the previous war" seems to be holding true. In September 1914 no one expect to need massive extra quantities of shells, or completely new large-caliber artillery, because everyone would rushing around with infantry and rapid fire guns... and then everyone gets stuck in trenches, so rush to get new guns and moar shells.
                  In 1940, Maginot line would stop the germans... and then blitzkrieg. So of to speed & air power everyone goes
                  In 1991, iraqi artillery and fortifications were supposed to be a problem... and then airpower and precision won the day, so that's what everyone went for.

                  And now we're back to "get the big guns and moar shells", with drones being the new "miracle tech of the day"...

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                  • Originally posted by jlvfr View Post
                    The old adage "Everyone trains and prepares for the previous war" seems to be holding true. In September 1914 no one expect to need massive extra quantities of shells, or completely new large-caliber artillery, because everyone would rushing around with infantry and rapid fire guns... and then everyone gets stuck in trenches, so rush to get new guns and moar shells.
                    In 1940, Maginot line would stop the germans... and then blitzkrieg. So of to speed & air power everyone goes
                    In 1991, iraqi artillery and fortifications were supposed to be a problem... and then airpower and precision won the day, so that's what everyone went for.

                    And now we're back to "get the big guns and moar shells", with drones being the new "miracle tech of the day"...
                    Only cause they see money.

                    This is a case of 2 countries that use the same equipment getting into a fight. I cannot jam their SAM sites because it also jams my SAM sites. Which causes a cascading effect on intel gathering, fire support and maneuver. So you do the hand held drones as a work around

                    The Ukraine Army has admitted that they lose around 10 Thousand Drones a month and that they cannot fly if the Russians aren't flying. If the Russians are jamming then neither one can fly.

                    You alson have a Army that thinks they need to engage 4 man patrols with 155mm rounds. They also laaughed off training in Observation tech while in Germany and developed their own laptop software to compute data. Which I will bet a paycheck is a simple geometry program that doesn't take in effect shell weight, powder temp, muzzle velocity and other things that are required for even late 20th century effective fires. So they have to fire way more rounds to get effect on target. Even when those rounds are GPS guided. The old addage GIGO

                    Other things that we have to relearn after 20+ years of low intensity conflict. Basic cammo, cover concealment. Little things like air sentries on every vehicl when its moving ect..

                    Yes we do need to develope some/return to service some close in weapons but this isnt a evolutionary step in modern warfare. Ask the Syrians how well it worked for them against the US Army.

                    And at the end of the day we know how to jam signals. Every vehicle with a short range jammer, like we had against Cellphone triggered IEDs.

                    Also fun fact, no US plane has ever been shot down that was under the protection of a EA-6 or EF-18G. We know how to shut electrical signals down. Im sure they would fry the internals of a civilian drone. Once upon a time I saw a EA-6B shut Fayetteville, NC down. By mistake but we had to cease training for a while

                    And at the end of the day, that cool vid of a drone dropping a grenade on enemy troops is nothing but a new take on Mines and bobby traps. Or the old Phantom Blooper. Don't bunch up and keep your head on a swivel
                    Last edited by Gun Grape; 29 Jul 24,, 04:46.

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                    • Also fun fact, no US plane has ever been shot down that was under the protection of a EA-6 or EF-18G. We know how to shut electrical signals down. Im sure they would fry the internals of a civilian drone. Once upon a time I saw a EA-6B shut Fayetteville, NC down. By mistake but we had to cease training for a while.

                      For decades the US Army EW Intel community trained and was headquartered at FT Devens, MA, about 25 miles WNW of Boston. They were finally moved to join the rest of the Military Intelligence community at FT Huachuca, AZ, because they kept knocking TV & radio stations in Boston off the air when some trainee would hit a wrong button.

                      Not using NATO FC systems to fire NATO weapons is just idiocy.

                      The old adage "Everyone trains and prepares for the previous war" seems to be holding true.

                      Not true...we planned and doctrinally adjusted to this for LSCO. But as I pointed out with Monash it wasn't for a lack of planning or doctrine. It was a lack of funding. And keep in mind we are NOT and CAN NOT send all of our 155mm to Ukraine as we have to handle contingencies across the globe, something Russia doesn't have to do. Finally, as Gunny pointed out, US factories don't produce 122mm or 152mm artillery shells.
                      “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                      Mark Twain

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                      • Volodymyr Zelensky told the newspaper "Le Monde" that he does not rule out holding a referendum on the future of Ukrainian territories to end the war, but "it requires the will of the Ukrainian people."

                        - Referendum? This is what the Ukrainian people should want. I will say frankly: this is not the best option, because we are dealing with Putin and it will be a victory for him if he seizes part of our territories- said Zelensky.

                        According to the president of the country, Ukraine should not liberate all its territories "by force and weapons" because this option "costs us a lot of time and human lives." Zelensky added: - We can return our territories through diplomatic means.
                        Similar to Israel, seems we're getting close to end of hostilities stage once we get past this presidential administration. I think it's more to just reflect reality however of Ukraine have not been able to do anything about taking back territory the Russians have taken and held for relatively a long time, and for Ukraine to win this war under the terms Ukraine has previously set requires them to have sustained successful counteroffensives on multiple front lines to take back territory equivalent in size to Hungary/Tennessee.
                        Last edited by rj1; 02 Aug 24,, 13:03.

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                        • Originally posted by rj1 View Post

                          Similar to Israel, seems we're getting close to end of hostilities stage once we get past this presidential administration. I think it's more to just reflect reality however of Ukraine have not been able to do anything about taking back territory the Russians have taken and held for relatively a long time, and for Ukraine to win this war under the terms Ukraine has previously set requires them to have sustained successful counteroffensives on multiple front lines to take back territory equivalent in size to Hungary/Tennessee.
                          On this forum and one other I've commented for some time that I don't see Ukraine taking back most if not all of the territory Russia has captured by military force. If nothing else the Crimean Peninsula and the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are all a bridge to far. Ukraine simply doesn't have the material or manpower to throw into frontal assaults on the scale required to recover them. That said, barring the total collapse of Ukrainian resistance (aided by a Trump win) I still think Ukraine will emerge victorious from this war.

                          And this is because I continue to compare Putin's initial stated intentions and objectives at the start of the invasion to what Russia has and will likely be able to achieve before it's stockpile of Soviet era material is exhausted and the economic cost of the war (sanctions, inflation, tax hikes, the draw down of it's sovereign wealth funds etc) start to cripple it's economy. And then look at the other metrics. For start Putin wanted all of Ukraine. To date he's go less than 20% of it, most of which is agricultural land with a few rust bucket (and bombed out) industrial centers thrown in and not one major population center. And every Ukrainian who lived in those regions and could? Has voted with their feet and fled to Ukraine proper. He wanted Ukraine to not join NATO. An accelerated pathway towards that exact same thing has been announced. He wanted them not to join the EU - ditto. He wanted to thwart NATO expansion eastwards and instead has just accelerated it with Finland's and Sweden's accession. He wanted to cripple the EU by cutting of gas sales and instead has just forced them to find new sources of gas to Russia's detriment.

                          There are other points I could raise but the point is by every metric I can think of Russia has either failed to achieve the outcomes it desired at the start of the war or has actually gone backwards. The point being I believe the true measure of victory is determined by comparing what any one combatant actually sought to achieve at the onset of hostilities to what they actually manage to achieve by the end. And by that measure (barring a collapse of Ukrainian resistance) Ukraine has and will win a great victory.
                          Last edited by Monash; 02 Aug 24,, 23:25.
                          If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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                          • Ukrainian forces continue cross-border incursion into Russia, Moscow claims

                            Fighting in the Russian region of Kursk was still ongoing on Wednesday, the Russian defence ministry confirmed.

                            Some 300 Ukrainian soldiers conducted an incursion across the border into Russia, engaging in combat inside Moscow's territory on Tuesday morning local time, according to the Kremlin.

                            Although Moscow originally claimed it pushed back the incursion, the assault has continued into Wednesday, with Russian military bloggers claiming that fighting has spread further into Russia and reaching the village of Sverdlikovo, some 15 kilometres from the border.

                            The Russian defence ministry confirmed that fighting was still ongoing at midday on Wednesday.

                            Members of Ukraine’s 22nd mechanised brigade launched an attack between the border villages of Nikolayevo-Daryino and Oleshnya in the Kursk region of Russia, supported by “11 tanks and more than 20 armoured fighting vehicles,” the ministry said.

                            The clashes originally extended as far as the outskirts of Sudzha, a town of some 5,000 people about 10 kilometres from the border near Ukraine's region of Sumy.

                            The assault was backed by drones and missile strikes, according to Moscow.

                            At least five civilians were killed, and some 28 were injured, mostly in Sudzha and Korenevo districts, Russian state-owned news agency Tass said.

                            Russian President Vladimir Putin called a meeting with his security officials on Wednesday in response to the incursion, labelling the attack as a "large-scale provocation". He also accused Ukrainian forces of attacking civilian targets.

                            None of the claims or casualty reports could be independently confirmed.

                            'Russia is not in control'

                            Kyiv did not immediately comment on the alleged incursion. However, Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council official Andrii Kovalenko said Russia was not in control of its border.

                            "Russian military commanders lie about controlling the situation in Kursk Oblast," Kovalenko wrote in the Telegram post.

                            This is not the first time Ukrainian forces have entered Russian territory. In March, exiled pro-Ukraine Russian fighters attacked Belgorod and Kursk regions but were pushed back with no gains to show.

                            Questions remain over the benefits of similar actions, aside from shock value and forcing parts of Russian troops to move troops from elsewhere to bolster their defences back home.

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                            • Originally posted by statquo View Post

                              Russian President Vladimir Putin called a meeting with his security officials on Wednesday in response to the incursion, labelling the attack as a "large-scale provocation". He also accused Ukrainian forces of attacking civilian targets.

                              Priceless...

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                              • "A large-scale provocation...."

                                The jokes just write themselves
                                “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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