2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[tbm3fan]

Possible coup attempt...

Ukraine thwarts alleged coup attempt, security service says

CNN —
Ukraine has foiled an alleged plot to overthrow the government that “would have played into Russia’s hands,” security officials in the war-torn country said Monday.

In a Telegram post, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claimed the alleged coup organizers planned to trigger a riot in Kyiv on June 30 as a distraction to seize control of the Ukrainian parliament and remove the military and political leadership from power.

It is unclear if those accused have any connection with Russia, which has waged a devastating full-scale invasion against its southwestern neighbor for nearly two and a half years.

Four suspects have been identified, with two held in custody, the SBU said. They face up to 10 years in prison if found guilty. The SBU said it seized weapons and ammunition, as well as cellphones, computers and other records “with evidence of criminal action.”

According to Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s Office, the alleged coup leader rented a hall with a capacity of 2,000 people and recruited military personnel and armed guards from private companies to “carry out the seizure” of parliament. It is unclear if prosecutors are seeking any more suspects.

“To implement the criminal plan, the main organizer involved several accomplices—representatives of the community organizations from Kyiv, Dnipro, and other regions,” the SBU said.

The alleged scheme in Kyiv comes as Russia has made slow but steady battlefield gains in recent months, exploiting Ukraine’s diminishing manpower and reliance on the West for weapons – and uncertainty over the future of that military aid.

Russian forces killed seven people, including three children, in a missile strike on the southern town of Vilniansk Saturday, according to Ukrainian officials, prompting President Volodymyr Zelensky to appeal for more long-range weapons.

“I am grateful to all partners who are helping. And the decisions we need must be accelerated. Any delay in decisions in this war means losing human lives,” Zelensky wrote on Telegram.

Concerns have grown over the future of US military support for Ukraine with the potential for another Donald Trump presidency on the horizon.

During last week’s presidential debate, Trump questioned whether the United States should continue to fund Ukraine’s fight against Russia.

Trump’s comments on the war in Ukraine were “worrying,” Ukrainian politician Oleksiy Goncharenko told CNN.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/02/europ...hnk/index.html

[Officer of Engineers]

Found this today. Can't find corresponding English sites. Chinese sites are the only ones reporting this. Google translation of the following

China has announced the participation the training and military exercises in Belarus. The First Regiment of the famed "Four Moons" Army, along with 200 cars and big guns. The People's Liberation Army is announce the high spirit of the Chinese People in supporting the spirit and the value of defence Belarus. China supports Belarus People. Values peace and prosperity Belarus.


Link for those who reads Chinese. Will post further when I find English reporting this.

Well, April's Fool became reality.

Chinese troops arrive in Belarus to lay foundation for joint training of forces – photos

[kato]

I've yet to see this mentioned anywhere in english outside the usual Ukrainian western-aimed press outlets (Euromaidan, Kyiv Independent etc).

CCTV (chinese) has some videos on youtube. Looks to be just a parade participation so far - and it's the same chinese drill unit that already participated in the independence day parade in Belarus in 2018 and 2019. Just with less flags this time.

According to Xinhua that contingent is also the only one China is sending to Belarus currently. If there actually was anything (significant) planned beyond that then Xinhua would probably have mentioned it when reporting on Xi Jinping meeting Lukashenko in Astana last thursday. Or when reporting on the Belarussian foreign minister visiting China right now.

[S2]

"Ukraine's ability to pursue its own peace process is contingent on its ability to liberate operationally-significant territory. Ukraine cannot undertake successful counteroffensive efforts in support of this aim without Western military support in the near- and medium-terms." (EDIT-failed to acknowledge quote ISW July 6, 2024)

Peace on any basis besides capitulation by Ukraine entails the re-capture of "operationally-significant territory". Anything less will not reverse Putin's present perspective. He believes he's winning ugly. Gains are modest, tactical, barely affordable in lives expended but inexorable all the same. Projected indefinitely, Russia will hold more tomorrow than they shall today...and so on until final victory or Putin's deposal/death.

Or so Putin believes. Consequently there is NO basis for negotiations on either side. So...how to reverse Ukraine's operational miasma? No offensive operation of significance will succeed in the present battlefield without sufficient air-superiority to return freedom to operationally mass and maneuver effectively. To do so, Ukraine will not only have to actively assist ground offensive operations kinetically from the air but also diminish Russia's drone reconnaissance while defeating the stand-off threat posed by massive glide bombs.

Aside from more brigade forces equipped and trained to fight aggressive offensive operations (almost impossible to get really, really good before commitment). Seems there's a problem with equipment...again. No money issues, mind you, just the usual slothness to which we've become accustomed. Now...nice and shiny those brigades might be, but if you wish operational success with amateurs, you'd better find all the force multipliers possible. E.W. good and in abundance. Anti-air from strategic defense of key infrastructure through brigade tactical air defense to facilitate maneuver despite FPV/Attack helicopters/Su-25. An expanded air umbrella provided by larger ani-air systems like PATRIOT and, dare I say, F-16s twenty nine months and counting after the war started.

Finally this-both forces have evolved. The greatest qualitative disparity, IMV, existed in Ukraine's favor in the fall of 2022. Both the Ukrainian qualitative edge and the battlefield fluidity BEGGED for further exploitation. Ukraine literally had troops in Kremmina and just outside of Svatove. Both were predicted to fall anyday.

It didn't happen. Ukraine culminated...or so they convinced themselves. In truth, though, much of the success in the north owed to Russian operational malpractice which Ukraine identified and skillfully exploited in grand series of tactical battles which carried them to Kremmina's doorstep. I don''t believe, however, they were psychologically prepared to reinforce success logistically and with follow-on forces. I've a sense they were as surprised as everybody else and were somewhat self-congratulatory and pleased to have done as well as they did.

Russia didn't stop. WAGNER instituted the genesis of what we see today by throwing themselves against Bakhmut. Now Avdiivka and, soon, Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. This will work to Putin's general satisfaction and ultimate victory as currently projected unless something good changes for Ukraine. I'm increasingly pessimistic that Ukraine can be properly equipped to conduct operationally significant operations. I'm further unconvinced they'd possess the nuanced finesse/acumen and skill at the battalion/brigade level to successfully execute such operations.

I feel very bleak.

[tbm3fan]

I feel very bleak.

I was feeling somewhat worse till today. It seems in France, the RN didn't get close to a majority. Thank god since some of Marine Le Pen's advisors would be to the right of Marshal Petain. Now it is a mix of centrists and the NFP. Still have the issue of Trump with some of his supporters to the right of? Well we won't go there just yet. Ukraine is in a tough spot at the moment, and Putin like Stalin, could care less what the cost. Seems to me Russia is condemned to always be a fxxked up country and so a constant thorn in many people's rear end.

[Amled]

I was feeling somewhat worse till today. It seems in France, the RN didn't get close to a majority. Thank god since some of Marine Le Pen's advisors would be to the right of Marshal Petain. Now it is a mix of centrists and the NFP. Still have the issue of Trump with some of his supporters to the right of? Well we won't go there just yet. Ukraine is in a tough spot at the moment, and Putin like Stalin, could care less what the cost. Seems to me Russia is condemned to always be a fxxked up country and so a constant thorn in many people's rear end.

Really can’t expect anything else from a country and people, which since its very inception has lived under the rule of those whose mindset has been, and is: Might makes right!

[Monash]

Perun's latest YouTube is up and it's a beaut! This week he's deep diving into Russian equipment loss stats to get some kind of feel for how long they can replace various key equipment types assuming current loss rates are maintained across all groups. Lots of logistics and stats. I can think of someone who will be interested.

[Albany Rifles]

I can think of someone who will be interested.

Oh goodie!!!!!

[Monash]

Any opinions on his numbers and time line folks?

[Albany Rifles]

Any opinions on his numbers and time line folks?

Haven't had a chance to catch it yet. Will look at it today sometime.

[Albany Rifles]

Just finished and excellent as always. What always jumps out to me when I see these kind of reports is just how much better NATO Armies are in sustaining our forces. Larger logistics units equals greater combat power!

[S2]

Buck,

Don't mean to de-rail the thread but I foresee an immense challenge for logistics-rich armies hiding those depots, etc. from prying eyes. This is a new world for high-intensity combat and I feel we've not yet come to grips w/ the full implications of drone reconnaissance/target acquisition and what that means for our tactical and operational rear areas.

[Monash]

Drones everywhere are going to mean your going to need point defense systems everywhere and on everything. In future I suspect rear area operational spaces are going make the Ruhr Valley look like it was poorly defended from air attack.

[Albany Rifles]

I feared my Army would be myopic on this but it turns out they have NOT been asleep at the switch. We...can I still say we now that I am retired...are undergoing a massive force reorganization. There is a massive expansion of air defense assets and organizations. Several counter drone systems and units are mobilizing with new weapons coming to them through Rapid Fielding Initiatives. We have had drones in the US Army since the 80s but we started going all in at the tactical level in the same rorgs. So we, and this is for all of DOD, are expanding drone/counter drone capabilities.

As for our stockage piles...they have always been an open book once satellites went up. The Warsaw Pact knew to a 16 digit grid where all of our POMCUS sites were in USAREUR. We have moved more to afloat prepositioned forces (APS) and there is a look going to shorten the surge time to get them out to sea and away from threats. We are also pushing out more ADA assets to protect them as well.

[S2]

"As for our stockage piles...they have always been an open book once satellites went up. The Warsaw Pact knew to a 16 digit grid where all of our POMCUS sites were in USAREUR."

I was thinking more along Corps/Div/Bde field locations. From the FLOT back you could wear a blindfold, throw a dart and likely land on a unit location. There were only so many places you could park your sh!t and do business.