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  • Originally posted by kato View Post
    Ankara is covered under b).
    Ankara is in Asia, not Europe. Almost all of Turkish territory is in Asia Minor, so if the treaty considers outside of scope any Turkish territory in Asia, that's the whole country outside of Istanbul.
    Last edited by rj1; 12 Mar 24,, 02:35.

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    • Originally posted by rj1 View Post

      Ankara is in Asia, not Europe. Almost all of Turkish territory is in Asia Minor, so if the treaty considers outside of scope any Turkish territory in Asia, that's the whole country outside of Istanbul.
      That is not how it has been interpreted. It was why my happy ass was in Turkey twice in the late 1980s on joint NATO planning meetings.
      “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
      Mark Twain

      Comment


      • This is the exact text from Article 6. Turkey is mentioned in addition to Europe.

        On another subject, Europe isn't really a geological continent, it's more a culturally defined thing. I'm sure if the Byzantine state had managed to survive to the modern day with the territories it had 850 years ago, cartographers would be drawing the boundaries of Europe to the Syria/Iraq border and the Black Sea would be considered an internal European body of water.

        Article 6 1

        For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:
        • on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France 2, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
        • on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.
        Last edited by Ironduke; 12 Mar 24,, 17:07.
        "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

        Comment


        • Russian military plane crashes on takeoff

          A Russian military transport plane with 15 people on board crashed on Tuesday while taking off from an air base in western Russia, the Defence Ministry said.

          It said the Il-76 aircraft with eight crew and seven passengers crashed in the Ivanovo region. It didn’t say whether there were any survivors.

          Stanislav Voskresensky, the governor of Ivanovo, offered condolences to the victims’ families. He said there was no damage on the ground.

          The Defence Ministry said in a statement that an engine fire during takeoff was the likely cause of the crash. It said a team of investigators flew to Ivanovo to conduct a probe.

          Russian media broadcast a video showing the aircraft heading down with at least one of its engines ablaze.

          The four-engine Il-76 is a heavy-lift transport plane that has been in service since the 1970s with the Soviet and then Russian air force.

          Tuesday’s crash came on a day when the Defence Ministry reported dozens of attacks on Russia by Ukrainian drones. In the past, Ukrainian drones hit some military air bases deep inside Russia.

          Click image for larger version

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          Occam's Razor says "Poor maintenance/lack of spares"

          But I'd like to think deliberate sabotage or damage from kinetic action.

          “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

          Comment


          • I did not have this on my 12 MAR 24 dance card!

            https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68541911

            Ukraine-based Russian armed groups claim raids into Russia

            6 hours ago
            By Jaroslav Lukiv,BBC News




            The Freedom of Russia Legion said Russia must be "freed from Putin's dictatorship"Three Ukraine-based Russian paramilitary groups say they have crossed into Russia and are now fighting government troops there.


            The Freedom of Russia Legion (FRL) and Siberian Battalion (SB) posted videos purportedly showing their fighters in Russia's Belgorod and Kursk regions.
            The FRL and an exiled Russian politician claimed two villages were now in control of "liberation forces".
            Russia's defence ministry said the breakthrough attempts were thwarted.
            Ukraine's military denied any involvement in Tuesday's cross-border raids. Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for the country's military intelligence, said the paramilitary groups were "independent organisations" of Russian nationals, and therefore operating "at home".
            In a separate development, Russia said Ukraine had launched 25 drones on targets across Russia, but the attack was thwarted.
            However, videos have emerged which appear to show several Russian oil facilities on fire.
            In the Ivanovo region, just east of Moscow, an Il-76 military-transport plane with eight crew and seven passengers crashed shortly after take-off, Russia's defence ministry was quoted as saying by Russian state-run news agencies.
            The ministry said an engine fire caused the crash. It gave no details of survivors.
            Videos have emerged purportedly showing the plane on fire circling in the sky, and later plumes of black smoke from the crash site.
            A full-scale invasion of Ukraine launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin is now in its third year, with no signs that the biggest war in Europe since World War Two could end soon.

            On Tuesday, the FRL posted what it said was a video from the Russian-Ukrainian border.
            "Like all our fellow citizens, in the Legion we dream of a Russia freed from Putin's dictatorship. But we don't just dream: we make every effort to make these dreams come true. We will take our land away from the regime, centimetre by centimetre," an armed FRL soldier in the footage is heard saying.
            Meanwhile, the SB said "fierce fighting is going on the Russian Federation territory", publishing a clip purportedly showing its fighters engaging with Russian government forces.
            It also condemned Russian presidential elections on 15-17 March, in which Mr Putin is widely expected to be declared the winner.
            "Ballots and polling stations in this case are fiction. You can really change your life for the better only with weapons in your hands," the SB said.
            Another Ukraine-based Russian group, the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), also published footage of what it said were its fighters engaging with Russian government troops.
            "The army of the Kremlin regime lays down its weapons without even starting the battle," it said.
            The videos have not been independently verified.
            The border village of Tetkino in the Kursk region appeared to be one of the targets in Tuesday's raids, with the FRL claiming that "liberating forces" now had full control over the settlement.
            The BBC has verified the authenticity of FRL footage depicting a strike on an armoured personnel carrier in Tetkino.
            Strike on military vehicle in Tetkino, Kursk
            Footage from Ukraine-based Russian paramilitary unit Freedom of Russia Legion claimed to show strike on Russian Armoured Personnel Carrier in the village of Tetkino, Kursk region, Russia.
            Telegram

            Superficial edits were made to this content to improve technical quality, in line with editorial guidelines.
            The layout of roads, buildings and trees is consistent with publicly-available satellite imagery at this location. Green and blue roofs also evident on satellite imagery.
            Onscreen caption at 7 seconds reads "enemy armoured personnel vehicle" in Russian
            Reverse image searches on Google and Yandex search engines of three keyframes each returned no results - suggesting video has not been cached and is therefore a recent upload.
            Shadow placement suggests footage was filmed early morning.
            Weather conditions match those reported for this location on morning of 12/03/2024


            lesssamemoreSkipKursk Mayor Igor Kutsak ordered all schools in the regional capital to be put on remote learning from 13 to 15 March "in connection with recent events".
            He also warned that the "missile alert" regime was still in place in the city, which has a population of more than 400,000.
            Earlier on Tuesday, Ukraine-based Russian opposition politician Illya Ponomarev claimed that the border village of Lozovaya Rudka, Belgorod region, was "under full control of liberating forces".

            In a statement later on Tuesday, the Russian defence ministry said its forces together with border guards and FSB security service units "thwarted an attempt by the Kyiv regime to make a breakthrough" into Russia.
            It said enemy fighters - backed by tanks and armoured personnel carriers - had tried to invade Russia "simultaneously in three directions in the areas of the settlements of Odnorobovka, Nekhoteevka and Spodaryushino, Belgorod region".
            It added that another four attacks had targeted Tetkino, but were "repulsed".
            The Ukraine-based Russian armed groups have made several cross-border raids since the full-invasion of Ukraine began.
            Last May, Russia's military said a similar attack in the Belgorod region was rebuffedand armed insurgents defeated.
            “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
            Mark Twain

            Comment


            • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
              Russian military plane crashes on takeoff

              A Russian military transport plane with 15 people on board crashed on Tuesday while taking off from an air base in western Russia, the Defence Ministry said.

              It said the Il-76 aircraft with eight crew and seven passengers crashed in the Ivanovo region. It didn’t say whether there were any survivors.

              Stanislav Voskresensky, the governor of Ivanovo, offered condolences to the victims’ families. He said there was no damage on the ground.

              The Defence Ministry said in a statement that an engine fire during takeoff was the likely cause of the crash. It said a team of investigators flew to Ivanovo to conduct a probe.

              Russian media broadcast a video showing the aircraft heading down with at least one of its engines ablaze.

              The four-engine Il-76 is a heavy-lift transport plane that has been in service since the 1970s with the Soviet and then Russian air force.

              Tuesday’s crash came on a day when the Defence Ministry reported dozens of attacks on Russia by Ukrainian drones. In the past, Ukrainian drones hit some military air bases deep inside Russia.

              Click image for larger version

Name:	IL-76.JPG
Views:	201
Size:	24.9 KB
ID:	1605944
              _______

              Occam's Razor says "Poor maintenance/lack of spares"

              But I'd like to think deliberate sabotage or damage from kinetic action.
              There is a reason we retired all of our C-141s by 2006!
              “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
              Mark Twain

              Comment


              • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                Russian military plane crashes on takeoff

                A Russian military transport plane with 15 people on board crashed on Tuesday while taking off from an air base in western Russia, the Defence Ministry said.

                It said the Il-76 aircraft with eight crew and seven passengers crashed in the Ivanovo region. It didn’t say whether there were any survivors.

                Stanislav Voskresensky, the governor of Ivanovo, offered condolences to the victims’ families. He said there was no damage on the ground.

                The Defence Ministry said in a statement that an engine fire during takeoff was the likely cause of the crash. It said a team of investigators flew to Ivanovo to conduct a probe.

                Russian media broadcast a video showing the aircraft heading down with at least one of its engines ablaze.

                The four-engine Il-76 is a heavy-lift transport plane that has been in service since the 1970s with the Soviet and then Russian air force.

                Tuesday’s crash came on a day when the Defence Ministry reported dozens of attacks on Russia by Ukrainian drones. In the past, Ukrainian drones hit some military air bases deep inside Russia.

                Click image for larger version

Name:	IL-76.JPG
Views:	201
Size:	24.9 KB
ID:	1605944
                _______

                Occam's Razor says "Poor maintenance/lack of spares"

                But I'd like to think deliberate sabotage or damage from kinetic action.
                One should ever rule out the possibility that “gremlins” could be in play!!!
                When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

                Comment


                • Does anybody have thoughts on the France-Moldova defense pact? It falls well short of being an alliance, but will it have any meaningful impact?
                  "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
                    Does anybody have thoughts on the France-Moldova defense pact? It falls well short of being an alliance, but will it have any meaningful impact?
                    I wasn't even aware such a treaty had been signed. Thanks for telling me, I'll look into it. But that aside it brings to mind a couple of points that have come up in the past. Firstly I was wondering if Ukraine shouldn't at some point occupy Trans Dnepr and then state their intention to officially transfer the region back to Moldova at some point in the future (assuming the Moravian's are prepared to risk it of course). The only real benefit for Ukraine in doing so (that I see) is that it gives them an extra bargaining chip with Putin when peace talks eventually commence. Which leads strait to my second point which is that agreeing not to join NATO is also a chip that Ukraine (and NATO) can put on the table. Which is where bilateral defense agreements like the one you've just mentioned could come into play. Ukraine could simply sign bi-lateral defense pacts with individual NATO members (all except for Hungary of course for, well .. reasons ) to create a sort of NATO (light) defense arrangement and yet Putin would still be able to claim that officially Ukraine will never 'join' NATO.
                    Last edited by Monash; 14 Mar 24,, 05:21.
                    If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                    Comment


                    • I don't think it's going to happen, but in my view, a good solution to the Moldova-Transnistria issue would be for Moldova to cede Transnistria to Ukraine via bilateral treaty, thus freeing itself from being the subject of a frozen conflict with Russian forces present on its territory. Make the Dneistr River the border. Maybe the French could help out with the few cis-Dneistr enclaves Transnistria has on the right bank of the river. Remove all leverage at this point Russia and Transnistria have over Moldova, and thus obstacles to EU/NATO membership. With the Transnistria issue removed as an obstacle, re-unite with Romania, and back door it into EU/NATO that way.

                      Worth noting there's an absolutely massive Soviet-era ammunition depot in Transnistria. It it were ever struck and cooked off, the damage would be massive.
                      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobasna_ammunition_depot
                      https://balkaninsight.com/2023/03/20...aine-and-nato/

                      Attached Files
                      "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
                        I don't think it's going to happen, but in my view, a good solution to the Moldova-Transnistria issue would be for Moldova to cede Transnistria to Ukraine via bilateral treaty, thus freeing itself from being the subject of a frozen conflict with Russian forces present on its territory. Make the Dneistr River the border. Maybe the French could help out with the few cis-Dneistr enclaves Transnistria has on the right bank of the river. Remove all leverage at this point Russia and Transnistria have over Moldova, and thus obstacles to EU/NATO membership. With the Transnistria issue removed as an obstacle, re-unite with Romania, and back door it into EU/NATO that way.

                        Worth noting there's an absolutely massive Soviet-era ammunition depot in Transnistria. It it were ever struck and cooked off, the damage would be massive.
                        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobasna_ammunition_depot
                        https://balkaninsight.com/2023/03/20...aine-and-nato/

                        Hmm ...if Ukraine did move in, intent to permanently annex or not I suspect one of Putin's first priorities would be that ammo dump. He'd probably order the local Russian military forces to 'light the fuse and run' before surrendering to Ukraine. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if a plan to do so wasn't drawn up as a contingency, if not during initial planning for the invasion then as soon as the 'dash for Kiev' turned into a fiasco. If that wasn't an option? I suppose a few Kalibrs would do the trick. (Of course either way Ukraine would be blamed.) I can't see the Russians being to keen on handing that much Soviet era ammunition over to the Ukis, even if most of it has passed it's expiry date..
                        Last edited by Monash; 14 Mar 24,, 06:25.
                        If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                        Comment


                        • Ukraine wouldn't have to move in immediately in my imagined scenario. Or even soon. They could just continue to blockade the area together with (Greater) Romania.

                          No huge loss if the Russkies blew the ammo depot. It's their loss, not Ukraine's. Maybe though with the corruption endemic in Transnistria they could be bribed to give ammo to Ukraine, who knows.
                          "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

                          Comment


                          • An interesting thread on the status of BMPs remaining in Russian service. Some may remember 2 years ago when I did boring deep dives on long term storage of combat vehicles. The best way is in dry, cool conditions then dry, hot.

                            The one thing all of these storage sites have in common is they have been stored in cold, wed conditions. I see a lot of seized final drives, transmission and engines. Turrets will be frozen in place. Many cables and connectors will be trash. I've been following Jompy for some time and I respect his/her opinions.


                            The Twitter feed is here https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...667296054.html


                            Jompy

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                            @Jonpy99
                            Mar 17 • 25 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X Bookmark Save as PDF
                            1/ Last thread on Russian AFVs in storage. As you all can guess, the final thread is on BMPs.
                            2/ @HighMarsed and I found 5,766 BMPs of all kinds in storage before the war

                            3/ as well as another 864-869 BMPs in BTRZs.
                            Unroll available on Thread Reader

                            4/ Worth noting that well over 1,000 BMPs were little more than broken hulls, clearly only useful as spare parts donors.
                            Unroll available on Thread Reader

                            5/ We also found ~600-700 BMP-based support vehicles, such as BREM-2s or PRP-1s, which aren't actual combat vehicles but we included in the count.

                            6/ With all that said, numbers clearly dropped. There isn't that much on figures per se to say, as HighMarsed already did on his own a pretty good analysis on stored BMPs a few months ago and we barely found any new satellite footage this time around.
                            Unroll available on Thread Reader

                            7/ Mostly, this thread is about caveats on Russian BMPs in storage. First, I counted BMPs per type in updated images: 539 BMP-2s, 5 BMP-3s, still close to 1,000 broken hulls, several BMP-based hundred supports vehicles and the many rest are BMP-1s.

                            8/

                            9/ We can clearly see that BMP-2s are gonna be added to the list of Russian armored vehicles that are goind extinct in Ukraine, just like MT-LBs or BTR-50s.

                            10/ At the current rate of losses, I'd be thoroughly surprised if Russia still retain any BMP-2 in storage by this year's end. But we also have to account that not every hull will be worth restoring, some will inevitable be only good to cannibalize them.
                            11/ However, as with any equipment refurbished, there's a time delay between taking them fron storage yards and puting them in service, so time will pass between the moment the last BMP-2 is taken from storage and the moment is deployed in Ukraine.
                            12/ This will probably mean that Russia will devote more refurbishing capabilities to BMP-1s to compensate and keep their quantitative edge over Ukraine.

                            13/ The number of total BMPs in storage nowadays from HighMarsed's thread to this one obviously very slightly increased as we found some more bases and we counted support vehicles.

                            14/ Now, let's take a look at some bases to see actual drops in storage. First, the Sevastopol base, where there were only BMP-2s: prewar vs June 2022.


                            15/ The 3018/6018th: prewar vs March 2023.

                            16/ The 769th: prewar vs September 2023.




                            17/ The 22nd: prewar vs July 2023.


                            18/ The only base were BMPs increased was at the 349th:

                            20/ But besides the 349th, every other base has seen a big drop in stored BMPs. It's true that they didn't remove as many BMPs as tanks for most of the year, which is weird when you think about it. I think that's because they had a lot stored indoors, and
                            21/ possibly they also requisitioned BMPs and BTRs from other security services. TMB2021 stated that the Border Guard and Rosgvardia had up tp 2,700 BTRs and BMPs in service. Now,a dn for the past year or more, they're down to their storage facilities.
                            22/ Overall, even if always of a decreasing quality, Russia still has BMP(-1s)s to carry on the war effort for another 1,5-2,5 years IMHO. There's a lot of variables to that, such as how many stored BMPs are actually reparable, how long will it take them...
                            22/ But we shouldn't underestimate them. Refurbishing armor is clearly something they have become quite adept at doing over the last 2 years.
                            23/ And we also have to account for external variables, such as Russia buying armor from third parties, and that applies to all kinds of equipment, not just BMPs and AFVs in general.
                            24/ I'll post in a short while another thread to explain some bits and make the overall number of stored AFVs feel slightly less threatening by showing that many thousands of vehicles will never seel the light, but with I'm done with stored Russian AFV threads for now.
                            for most of the first year*
                            “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                            Mark Twain

                            Comment


                            • Great post. I'll have to look at his other work. Anyway I've been arguing on another forum that Russia faces combat vehicle 'crunch time' no later than the second half of 2026. By which I mean the best case scenario for Russia is that it's cold war stockpiles of all types of combat vehicles will be gone by then. So I've always worked on that being the basis that Russia will have has no choice but to end the war before then i.e. earlier in 2026. And Putin or rather his generals will have a far better picture of when they will hit 'zero vehicle day' that anyone else does. I only keep up with equipment losses via Oryx these days but just using those figures Russia is being clearly being much more cautious about expending armored fighting vehicles in combat. IMO they have to be trying to build up a reserve in anticipation of a major breakthrough at some point. (Probably not this year though because Putin is focused on the election. If Trump wins there's a good chance he does. )
                              If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                              Comment


                              • The WSJ is reporting the Czechs have sourced another 700,000 artillery shells, in addition to the previous 800,000.
                                https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/a-s...raine-35255577

                                Anyone have any thoughts on the reports that Russia is buying imagery from US commercial satellite companies to conduct and correct strikes on Ukranian positions and materiel?
                                https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...ne-war/677775/
                                Last edited by Ironduke; 19 Mar 24,, 14:45.
                                "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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