2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Albany Rifles]

But there are no such treaties between NATO member states and Ukraine.


YAHTZEE! Exactly. There are no treaties. If there were a mutual support treaty between the US & Ukraine it would make things easier in Congress. It sucks but it is a matter of realpolitik.

[TopHatter]

Does anyone know the exact number of flyable A-50 Mainstay air-frames Russia still has on it's books? From memory there were a couple that had been out of service for years so they are probably only good for spare parts and I think one was damaged by a drone attack as well or am I mistaken? Anyway what does that leave them now.

Like Ironduke said, the number seems to be 7. From TWZ:

Prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia was estimated to have nine A-50s, including a number of modernized A-50Us, in active service. As well as the two combat losses since then, one of these aircraft was damaged in a drone attack while on the ground at a base in Belarus last year and its current status is unknown. As it stands, the best-case scenario puts seven of these aircraft in active service.

And because of that:

Speaking yesterday, Sergei Chemezov, the head of Russia’s Rostec state defense conglomerate, said that production of the A-50 would be restarted, according to a report from the state-run TASS news agency.

And a contributing factor has to be:

...the significant problems Moscow has faced in fielding a new-generation AEW&C platform, the A-100, which remains in limbo, for the time being.

[Monash]

Like Ironduke said, the number seems to be 7. From TWZ:


And because of that:



And a contributing factor has to be:

Proposing to restart production of a large, multi jet engined AWAC that went out of production more than 30 years ago? Good luck with that. They have a better chance of getting the A-100 into production, at least in terms air frames than they do of raising that zombie! Even then they'd have to covertly buy Playstation and X-Box modules out the yazoo just to find the electronics to put inside it! And getting the whole dam thing to actually work properly? Call me next decade.

[rj1]

Oh Germany...

[kato]

If a NATO nation sends soldiers unilaterally - without formal NATO approval/involvement - does that risk an Article 5 situation? I am thinking of the dozens of times NATO members have deployed combat troops over the past 70 odd years without Article 5 coming into play. If I recall correctly Britain didn't even get official NATO assistance when its territory was invaded in 1982.

The NATO treaty is limited in territorial scope by Article 6. It's the North Atlantic Treaty after all

Precisely, it is limited to
a) attacks on the (continental) territories of its member nations located in North America or Europe
b) attacks on Turkish territory in Asia
c) attacks on islands belonging to member nations that are located in the Mediterranean or Atlantic north of the Tropic of Cancer (which is basically the southern tip of Florida)
d) attacks on forces of its member nations located (important) on or above the above territories

In addition to the above historically French Algeria in Africa and postwar occupation forces in Germany and Austria were "protected" until either ceased to exist.

There are some "edge cases" possibly not covered, in particular in the Arctic, but these edge cases have never been tested.

An attack on hypothetical NATO forces stationed in Ukraine would never be able to trigger Article 5 unless Ukraine were to become a NATO member itself. Regardless of whether this was a unilateral deployment by a NATO member or a joint NATO action.

[Albany Rifles]

Welp...looks like the Ukrainian Navy is at it again!

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ea-2024-03-05/

Ukraine says it has sunk a Russian patrol ship near Crimea

Reuters
March 5, 202411:44 AM EST

Ukraine says it sank a Russian patrol ship off Crimea

KYIV, March 5 (Reuters) - Ukrainian sea drones hit and sank a Russian Black Sea Fleet patrol ship off occupied Crimea in an overnight attack, the Ukrainian military said on Tuesday.
The Ukrainian military intelligence agency said a special unit called Group 13 had fired Magura V5 maritime drones at the Sergey Kotov near the Kerch Strait, which connects the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea.
It said on the Telegram messaging app that the vessel had sustained damage to the stern, starboard and port sides, at an estimated cost of $65 million.

"Right now this ship is on the seabed as a result of fire damage by unmanned boats," navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk said in televised comments, adding that a helicopter may have been on board.
Reuters was unable to verify the reports. The Russian defence ministry did not immediately reply to a Reuters request for comment.
Some Russian military bloggers confirmed the account. The Telegram channel VChK-OGPU reported attempts to tow the ship to port but said it eventually sank.

Ukraine has in recent months stepped up attacks in the Black Sea and on Crimea, which Russia seized and annexed in 2014. Kyiv has reported a series of strikes, including the sinking of a large landing ship by naval drones in mid-February.
Pletenchuk said the Sergey Kotov had also been hit in September 2023 and that a similar patrol vessel had also been damaged in attacks since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago.

"They have four similar ships, two of them are no longer in service," he said.
Reuters was unable to confirm the earlier strikes.
Train and highway traffic was temporarily stopped and later resumed on a bridge spanning the Kerch Strait and linking the Crimean peninsula to the Russian mainland, Moscow-installed officials in Crimea said.
Russia controls close to one-fifth of Ukraine's territory. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in November Kyiv had seized the initiative in the Black Sea and forced back Russia's fleet.

[TopHatter]

Welp...looks like the Ukrainian Navy is at it again!

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ea-2024-03-05/

Looks kinda pricey....and brand new. Oh look, commissioned July 2022!

Lead ship Vasily Bykov

[Albany Rifles]

Looks kinda pricey....and brand new. Oh look, commissioned July 2022!

Lead ship Vasily Bykov

ON NO.....anyway....

[Monash]

I was hoping for something well, a bit bigger! (She said.)

[TopHatter]

I was hoping for something well, a bit bigger! (She said.)

In the Black Sea Fleet? Check the sea floor

[Bigfella]

I was hoping for something well, a bit bigger! (She said.)

They are running out of 'bigger'. Rapidly.

[Monash]

They are running out of 'bigger'. Rapidly.

Well by my count Russia still has three or four modern guided missile frigates out there to 'spin' into finial victory plus six or seven larger landing ships. I'm more than happy to see all of those turned into artificial reefs/marine parks first.

[rj1]

The NATO treaty is limited in territorial scope by Article 6. It's the North Atlantic Treaty after all

Precisely, it is limited to
a) attacks on the (continental) territories of its member nations located in North America or Europe
b) attacks on Turkish territory in Asia
c) attacks on islands belonging to member nations that are located in the Mediterranean or Atlantic north of the Tropic of Cancer (which is basically the southern tip of Florida)
d) attacks on forces of its member nations located (important) on or above the above territories

In addition to the above historically French Algeria in Africa and postwar occupation forces in Germany and Austria were "protected" until either ceased to exist.

There are some "edge cases" possibly not covered, in particular in the Arctic, but these edge cases have never been tested.

An attack on hypothetical NATO forces stationed in Ukraine would never be able to trigger Article 5 unless Ukraine were to become a NATO member itself. Regardless of whether this was a unilateral deployment by a NATO member or a joint NATO action.

In light of letter b, wasn't Afghanistan done through NATO?

It strikes me as a little ridiculous Turkey's a member but if Ankara gets hit, nothing. If Istanbul gets hit, we're there with you in full defense buddy.

If taken literally, letters a, c and d combined I think would mean an attack on Hawaii would not invoke Article V.

[Albany Rifles]

In light of letter b, wasn't Afghanistan done through NATO?

It strikes me as a little ridiculous Turkey's a member but if Ankara gets hit, nothing. If Istanbul gets hit, we're there with you in full defense buddy.

Turkey makes a ton of sense going back to the birth of NATO. It was seen as a bulwark to keep guard over the Dardanelles, helping to protect the Med. Also a springboard towards keeping the WP out of the Gulf. Made a ton of sense in 50s-60s. It is also why we stored nuclear weapons in Turkey. The 24th ID at Fort STewart (Changed to 3 ID in the 90s) was stood up in the 1970s to a) go serve in Turkey or b) seize Bandar Abbas and attack northward to keep USSR out of the Gulf. That is why they were the only unit in the Army whose vehicles were permanently sand colored back then. No secret where we were going.

[Albany Rifles]