They could always little green men them into Ukraine…
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Originally posted by statquo View PostThey could always little green men them into Ukraine…
Macron though is not sending anyone. It's a bit of bluster to hide that the French compared to most of their European colleagues have hardly done anything. French public opinion of the conflict per this Politico EU article is it's a "post-Soviet Union conflict" and the Ukrainians dumping dirt cheap ag goods into Europe has generated populist reactions from farmers across the continent that usually get heavily protectionist trade policy to benefit them, which acts to generate anti-Ukrainian opinion because the Ukrainians are harming them economically.
http://www.politico.eu/article/macro...t-not-let-him/
Meanwhile there's a summer election to the EU Parliament. Hard to poll of course but all indications are the more right - I think it will be a more war-skeptic right - will succeed and the "center-right/center-left with occasionally the liberals" grand coalition that has governed Europe since the start of time will be sidelined, which will dramatically change European continental politics but will likely filter into national-level politics as well. Few people think highly of Von Der Leyen so her job also might be up. She's running for reelection and is accused of using her office to campaign by some EU detractors of her, which duh, that's how politics works. But with Macron's dream being to become the Leader of Europe, I view that statement as an electoral aim to generate headlines for himself instead of any real desire to deploy. Can't think of a better way to get everyone on the continent to talk about you, as well as positioning himself as the leader of all the national leaders then by broaching "let's send troops", even though French military arm deliveries to Ukraine the past 2 years greatly lack per capita. He insulted Chancellor Scholz the past 2 days ridiculing their "helmets" delivery start of the war. Pretty odd way to campaign for Von Der Leyen's job to say the least unless you think anti-German sentiment in the EU is strong right now.Last edited by rj1; 29 Feb 24,, 18:18.
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Originally posted by Albany Rifles View PostI don't want to see ANY NATO Soldiers (aside from trainers) in a situation where they can end up triggering Article 5.
Ukraine is not yet a signatory in a treaty. Once that day comes it will be a different story.
I get that any such deployment would be risky given where it is & who it is against, I'm just curious about the specific legal issues. I'd also be curious to know if you think an air campaign runs similar risks.sigpic
Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C
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Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
If a NATO nation sends soldiers unilaterally - without formal NATO approval/involvement - does that risk an Article 5 situation? I am thinking of the dozens of times NATO members have deployed combat troops over the past 70 odd years without Article 5 coming into play. If I recall correctly Britain didn't even get official NATO assistance when its territory was invaded in 1982.
I get that any such deployment would be risky given where it is & who it is against, I'm just curious about the specific legal issues. I'd also be curious to know if you think an air campaign runs similar risks.If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.
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Originally posted by Monash View PostI'd add that technically a member State unilaterally sending soldiers to fight against Russia in Ukraine counts as aggressive action and hence would make them the aggressors since in this case Russia wouldn't be the one initiating hostilities with the member State concerned. I know an attack on one member State is to be regarded as an attack on all but I have no idea what the articles of the treaty say about unilateral declarations of war by individual members on outsiders.
For a Canadian force to be both viable and visible, it has to occupy a place of importance in a coalition, ie a reccee/strategic reserve Bde in a coalition Force, ie VII Corps. It's doubtful that even the Americans could field VII Corps today, at least not VII Corps flushed to full strength. We've given far too much to the Ukrainians and as an example, us Canadians could not field a CMBG but just two BGs. We're one BG short. The Brits are in the same position. I do not have the confidence we have the ammo reserves we need to take on the Russians head on.
Chimo
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Originally posted by Monash View Post
I'd add that technically a member State unilaterally sending soldiers to fight against Russia in Ukraine counts as aggressive action and hence would make them the aggressors since in this case Russia wouldn't be the one initiating hostilities with the member State concerned. I know an attack on one member State is to be regarded as an attack on all but I have no idea what the articles of the treaty say about unilateral declarations of war by individual members on outsiders.sigpic
Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C
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Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
I don't see how sending soldiers to defend the sovreign territory of another nation from invasion could be 'technically' classified as aggression. Russia will claim it is, but Ukraine has the right to invite another nation to help it defend itself. None of that requires declaring war on Russia, it is about defending Ukranian territory.If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.
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Originally posted by Monash View Post
The problem as I saw it is that while Russia and Ukraine are at war, Ukraine is not a member of NATO and Russia has not initiated hostilities with any member of NATO. So if random NATO member X decides to join the conflict on Ukraine's side they are the ones initiating hostilities with Russia not the other way round.
I just don't see how deploying troops to the sovereign territory of a nation with that nation's consent can qualify as 'initiating hostilities' against anyone. Russia has no rights here. It is illegally occupying part of a nation in a conflict it initiated.sigpic
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Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
Again, Russia may see it that way, but I am unaware of any legal or 'official' context in which that would be true. NATO nations aren't restricted from deploying troops to non-NATO nations or even nations with which they have no formal treaties. I don't know what, if any consultation is required, but I don't imagine France, the US, Turkey, the UK, Portugal & others have run off seeking approval every time they have deployed troops somewhere since they joined the alliance.
I just don't see how deploying troops to the sovereign territory of a nation with that nation's consent can qualify as 'initiating hostilities' against anyone. Russia has no rights here. It is illegally occupying part of a nation in a conflict it initiated.
I think I'm arguing it how most international law experts might see it i.e. in terms of the timing of the relevant declarations of war - who declares war on who first and for what reason. Barring special circumstances? Whoever does so is the initiator/aggressor nation. That would change if there was a pre-existing unilateral treaty of mutual assistance and defense between Ukraine and say Poland where Poland is the NATO member that then declares war on Russia in response the it's invasion of Ukraine. In that circumstance Russia would still be the aggressor nation. (Well at least that's what I suspect. I'm certainly no expert on the subject.) But there are no such treaties between NATO member states and Ukraine. So if one member was to arbitrarily jump in boots and all?Last edited by Monash; 01 Mar 24,, 12:07.If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.
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Originally posted by Monash View Post
I think I'm arguing it how most international law experts might see it i.e. in terms of the timing of the relevant declarations of war - who declares war on who first and for what reason. Barring special circumstances? Whoever does so is initiator/aggressor nation. That would change if there was a pre-existing unilateral treaty of mutual assistance and defense between Ukraine and say Poland where Poland is the NATO member that then declares war on Russia in response the it's invasion of Ukraine. In that circumstance Russia would still be the aggressor nation. (Well at least that's what I suspect. I'm certainly no expert on the subject.) But there are no such treaties between NATO member states and Ukraine. So if one member was to arbitrarily jump in boots and all?Last edited by Bigfella; 01 Mar 24,, 12:02.sigpic
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LONDON -- France’s foreign minister has suggested that Western countries should be considering the idea that NATO troops should perhaps be deployed to Ukraine in non-combat roles to assist Ukraine.
Foreign Minister Stéphane Sejourne in France’s parliament on Wednesday elaborated further, saying NATO troops could potentially be deployed into Ukraine to assist with roles such as “demining, cyber operations or weapons production.”
This statement follows President Emmanuel Macron’s comments on Tuesday, saying Western troop deployments to Ukraine should “not be ruled out.”
Macron said troops could do such actions without “crossing the threshold of belligerence” and such things should not be ruled out given Russia’s efforts to destabilize Europe.
France’s suggestions have been firmly rebuffed by some key European states but it appears there is a real growing push among some European countries to at least discuss the possibility of providing more direct military assistance, something that had been previously been taboo.
The Netherlands defense ministry also didn’t rule it out on Tuesday and Macron, along with Slovakia’s prime minister, have both said publicly some countries are actively discussing it.
https://abcnews.go.com/International...y?id=107669159
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Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
OK, so neither of us has the slightest idea what we are talking about, which is probably as good a reason as any to just let this be. You are just making up stuff and I am making up stuff in response. If you find any relevant opinions on this specific topic from people who are qualified I would love to read them. Absent that all either of us have is a ton of assumptions based on a pinhead of relevant knowledge.Last edited by Monash; 02 Mar 24,, 01:52.If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.
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Isn't Fico and their government now anti-Ukraine? I can't imagine he's discussing NATO troops in Ukraine from a perspective of support or in regards to a measure Slovakia is considering. This is a guy who summed things up as, "the war in Ukraine didn’t start a year ago, it started in 2014, when Ukrainian Nazis and fascists started murdering Russian citizens in the Donbas and Luhansk"."Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."
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Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
If a NATO nation sends soldiers unilaterally - without formal NATO approval/involvement - does that risk an Article 5 situation? I am thinking of the dozens of times NATO members have deployed combat troops over the past 70 odd years without Article 5 coming into play. If I recall correctly Britain didn't even get official NATO assistance when its territory was invaded in 1982.
I get that any such deployment would be risky given where it is & who it is against, I'm just curious about the specific legal issues. I'd also be curious to know if you think an air campaign runs similar risks.
My opinion has not changed in 2 years...give Ukraine EVERYTHING e can to help them. But not a drop of US blood.“Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
Mark Twain
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Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
I don't see how sending soldiers to defend the sovreign territory of another nation from invasion could be 'technically' classified as aggression. Russia will claim it is, but Ukraine has the right to invite another nation to help it defend itself. None of that requires declaring war on Russia, it is about defending Ukranian territory.
Just look at the reaction differed over the US & Afghanistan v Iraq.“Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
Mark Twain
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