2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Ironduke]

They also have two A-100s, likewise an AWACS built around the Il-76, it is a 2010s new variant of the A-50, with upgraded jet engines and radar (AESA). Some hot takes on Reddit and YouTube are claiming the Russians no longer have the capability the build A-50s since the fall of the Soviet Union.

While it is true they will not be building anymore, with the last production model completed in 1992, they have built two A-100s since 2017, which is a technically superior variant of the A-50. So then I think it becomes a question can Ukraine shoot down A-50s faster than Russia can replace their losses with A-100s. Or force the Russians to ground their A-50s or limit their usage severely, and either way consequently force Russia to lose its eyes in the sky. I think the answer to both of those questions may possibly be yes.

There's been further reporting that perhaps the Il-22 was not shot down, but was hit in flight, and managed to land damaged. A Russian Telegram channel is reporting it was hit by "friendly fire".

There are also claims ADM-160 MALD was used by the Ukrainians to misdirect Russian air defense efforts toward the Kerch Strait Bridge, tricking them into thinking Su-24s were airborne firing Storm Shadow/Scalps. What purportedly took down the A-50, which is yet to be confirmed, is unknown. Personally I hope it's never revealed, so that the Ukrainians can pull off this trick more than once.

It may be that we won't see forensic verification of the claimed A-50 shootdown, as there was with the Novocherkassk, Moskva, or Russian aircraft shot down over land or destroyed at their bases, as the A-50 supposedly went down over the Sea of Azov.

Just read this elsewhere and rushed over here to see if up and of course Ironduke is on the ball as usual. Fantastic!

I read r/ukrainianconflict a few times a day to keep up on events... most days there's nothing that stands out as worth commenting on, mostly the Russians trying to advance/making minimal advances, Ukrainians stopping them or making them pay heavily for it. It is mostly now the events of each day are the same as the day before. And this will go on for a week or two at a time until you get something like an AWACS shot down, a Ropucha-class landing ship sunk at its moorings, a bold Ukrainian attempt to sever the bridge and tunnel on the BAM Line.

[jlvfr]

I may be over optimistic, but I think this may hurt more than loosing a frigate...

[Monash]

Just read on The Warzone that Russia had 10 to begin with, but not all were "serviceable".

This has gotta hurt BAD.

I didn't realize the figure was that low. What a pity. To do their job properly AEW&Cs have long sorties times and Russian military aircraft engines have much shorter TBOHs than western engines do. I hope the Russians hired Formula One pit crews to maintain those aircraft. They're going to need them.

[Ironduke]

These photos have emerged, claimed to be vertical/horizontal stabilizer and rear fuselage of the damaged Il-22 airborne command post that managed to land. I would put this aircraft in the category of "functionally destroyed".

Meanwhile it's been reported the A-50 was observed going down in flames into the Sea of Azov by the pilot of a Russian Su-30, whose radio communication of his observation was intercepted.

[Monash]

Meah! If they have another serviceable air-frame they could potentially just transfer all the electronics and work stations to that. I doubt however they could simply cut the tail off an older plane and replace the damaged one. (Well they might try but if I was one of the air crew they'd have to drag me kicking and screaming on board and then bolt the doors closed from the outside.)

[Ironduke]

Meah! If they have another serviceable air-frame they could potentially just transfer all the electronics and work stations to that.

Maybe. However there were radio intercepts from the pilot "urgently requesting fire and ambulance crew" right after the Il-22 was hit. Unless he was anticipating casualties and the plane catching on fire from a crash landing, that would otherwise imply there was already a conflagration and casualties onboard. And those casualties would likely be situated in the vicinity of the equipment they were operating. If this were the case, I don't think it would the case they could simply do a plug and play swap of equipment from that Il-22 into another.

Sure, we only have photos of the tailfin area, but that doesn't mean there wasn't damage to other parts of the plane.

[Albany Rifles]

I may be over optimistic, but I think this may hurt more than loosing a frigate...

Absolutely!!! Losing C3I and situational awareness across a battlescape greatly hampers operations.

[Monash]

It''s all the evidence we've got until further photos get leaked or satellite images show the plane stationary somewhere on its field untended/abandoned or being broken over the next 3 months or so. It is winter over there so if they decide to just leave it parked out in the open in that condition? You know they've written it off.

[Monash]

..... Sure, we only have photos of the tailfin area, but that doesn't mean there wasn't damage to other parts of the plane.

All very true but so far that photo is all the evidence we've got until further photos get leaked or satellite images show the plane stationary somewhere on the air field untended/abandoned or being broken over the next couple of months or so. It is winter over there so if they decide to just leave it parked out in the open in that condition? We'll know they've written it off.

[Monash]

They also have two A-100s, likewise an AWACS built around the Il-76, it is a 2010s new variant of the A-50, with upgraded jet engines and radar (AESA). Some hot takes on Reddit and YouTube are claiming the Russians no longer have the capability the build A-50s since the fall of the Soviet Union.

While it is true they will not be building anymore, with the last production model completed in 1992, they have built two A-100s since 2017, which is a technically superior variant of the A-50. So then I think it becomes a question can Ukraine shoot down A-50s faster than Russia can replace their losses with A-100s. Or force the Russians to ground their A-50s or limit their usage severely, and either way consequently force Russia to lose its eyes in the sky. I think the answer to both of those questions may possibly be yes.

There's been further reporting that perhaps the Il-22 was not shot down, but was hit in flight, and managed to land damaged. A Russian Telegram channel is reporting it was hit by "friendly fire".

There are also claims ADM-160 MALD was used by the Ukrainians to misdirect Russian air defense efforts toward the Kerch Strait Bridge, tricking them into thinking Su-24s were airborne firing Storm Shadow/Scalps. What purportedly took down the A-50, which is yet to be confirmed, is unknown. Personally I hope it's never revealed, so that the Ukrainians can pull off this trick more than once.

It may be that we won't see forensic verification of the claimed A-50 shootdown, as there was with the Novocherkassk, Moskva, or Russian aircraft shot down over land or destroyed at their bases, as the A-50 supposedly went down over the Sea of Azov.


I read r/ukrainianconflict a few times a day to keep up on events... most days there's nothing that stands out as worth commenting on, mostly the Russians trying to advance/making minimal advances, Ukrainians stopping them or making them pay heavily for it. It is mostly now the events of each day are the same as the day before. And this will go on for a week or two at a time until you get something like an AWACS shot down, a Ropucha-class landing ship sunk at its moorings, a bold Ukrainian attempt to sever the bridge and tunnel on the BAM Line.

Of relevance to the above. The ISW is quoting Ukrainian intelligence as stating that ' Russia had only three A-50s in service out of a total of six prior to this strike.' T'H's source noted a total number of only 10 with not all of them being serviceable.prior to the war commencing. We all know Ukrainian intelligence reports (at least those released to the public) can tend to be a bit 'optimistic' from time to time but allowing for the sources you found Ironduke claiming that Russia can't produce new engines for their A-50's anymore in this case the Ukrainian's estimate of only three to six planes looks like it's pretty dam near on the mark to me.

Which makes this loss an even worse blow! If Russia was only managing to build one or two A-100s every couple of years prior to Western sanctions kicking in there's no way in hell they can replace this loss or any further ones. Chances are they're now down to 4 to 5 operational AWACS at best. They won't be able to run continuous 24/7 overwatch missions with that number of airframes.

[Ironduke]

Al very true but so far that photo is all the evidence we've got until further photos get leaked or satellite images show the plane stationary somewhere on the air field untended/abandoned or being broken over the next couple of months or so. It is winter over there so if they decide to just leave it parked out in the open in that condition? We'll know they've written it off.

Well, good luck to them digging out an Il-18 and trying to turn in into an Il-22 Coot B. The last time this occurred was 1979. There were six Il-18s left in service around the world in 2019, not all of them in Russia. Since then, the only work on this line have been upgrading existing Il-22s, with no new conversions over from Il-18s.

Maybe the Russians have some Il-18s in a boneyard somewhere, who knows, but I think the common sense conclusion is this aircraft is a goner, they're not going to salvage it and have another Il-22 up in the air.

[Officer of Engineers]

The Ukrainians are downplaying the significance of the A-50/Il-22 destruction

https://english.nv.ua/nation/destruc...-50384557.html

[Monash]

The Ukrainians are downplaying the significance of the A-50/Il-22 destruction

https://english.nv.ua/nation/destruc...-50384557.html

The article acknowledges the Russians still have and can fly other AWACS. My point was though that given they probably only have 4 or 5 serviceable aircraft in total available they won't be able to fly continuous AWACS operations for prolonged periods of time. Obviously they can still surge them as needed to support Russian air operations but that's not the same thing as having 24/7 eyes in the sky.

[Officer of Engineers]

The Russians never flew 24/7. Like our F-117 during the Kosovo War. They kept repeating their flight patterns in support of their bombings. That allowed the Ukrainians time and space to ambush the planes. If they were flying 24/7, we'd would have been feeding the Ukrainians dead zones that they could have fly into.

[Ironduke]

What the UAF spokesman appears to be saying is, they have less of them, they'll fly them further away, they'll be less effective, but they still have some and will still use them.