2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Officer of Engineers]

The Europeans are in the business and so are others. For that matter if the Uki's had succeeded in significantly damaging the bridge the US Government would probably have released some (low res) images of that damage by now to bolster domestic support for Ukraine.

I know of no commercial satellites releasing pictures of Russian territory without the explicit authorization from Moscow. I've seen military satellite pics but not commercial ones.

[Ironduke]

I know of no commercial satellites releasing pictures of Russian territory without the explicit authorization from Moscow. I've seen military satellite pics but not commercial ones.

There's been no trouble getting satellite photos of Russian naval and airbases from companies like Planet Labs, including before and after photos when there's been Ukrainian strikes. Is Russia approving these releases?

[Officer of Engineers]

The only photos I'm aware of are from Crimea, disputed territory.

[Albany Rifles]

As we did the back and forth regarding whether the US should provide ATACMS to Ukraine, I kept making the case we needed to husband our resources in case we needed to use limited resources elsewhere IAW treaties. Well this news may be the reason why we finally were willing to part with them...

And we don't make these announcements until success in building stocks is well in hand...

https://www.army.mil/article/272301/...siles_delivery

Army announces first Precision Strike Missiles delivery

By U.S. Army Public Affairs December 8, 2023





REDSTONE ARSENAL, Ala. — The U.S. Army announced today the initial delivery of its next-generation Long Range Precision Fires missile.

The delivery of Precision Strike Missile Increment 1 Early Operational Capability missiles follows successful production qualification testing in November at White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico.

The PrSM is the Army’s next-generation Long Range Precision Fires weapon. Launched from M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and M270A2 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems, it is capable of neutralizing targets at standoffs greater than 400 kilometers. The PrSM features an open-systems architecture design to accommodate future growth.

“The Precision Strike Missile will provide Joint Force commanders with a 24/7, all-weather capability that will counter the enemy’s ability to conduct combat maneuver and air defense operations,” said Doug Bush, Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics and Technology. “The rapid development and delivery of this capability is a prime example of the Army’s aggressive use of new acquisition authorities from Congress that allow us to move at much greater speed to get improved equipment to Soldiers.”

For additional information, please contact PEO Missiles and Space Public Affairs

[statquo]

Declassified US intelligence assessment pretty ugly for the Russians.

- Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks
- “sharply set back 15 years of Russian effort to modernize its ground force.”
- Of the 360,000 troops that entered Ukraine, including contract and conscript personnel, Russia has lost 315,000 on the battlefield
- 2,200 of 3,500 tanks have been lost
- 4,400 of 13,600 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers have also been destroyed
- As of late November, Russia lost over a quarter of its pre-invasion stockpiles of ground forces equipment
- Since launching its offensive in October, we assess that the Russian military has suffered more than 13,000 casualties along the Avdiivka-Novopavlivka axis and over 220 combat vehicle losses-the equivalent of 6 maneuver battalions in equipment alone

[Monash]

Declassified US intelligence assessment pretty ugly for the Russians.

- Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks
- “sharply set back 15 years of Russian effort to modernize its ground force.”
- Of the 360,000 troops that entered Ukraine, including contract and conscript personnel, Russia has lost 315,000 on the battlefield
- 2,200 of 3,500 tanks have been lost
- 4,400 of 13,600 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers have also been destroyed
- As of late November, Russia lost over a quarter of its pre-invasion stockpiles of ground forces equipment

The 315,000 figure quoted for casualties is in fact almost certainly conservative. But the problem is that it includes wounded which of course also includes soldiers rendered combat ineffective by accidents and medical conditions such as phenomena etc. And once treated many of those wounded would be able to return to duty. The Russians have also had 2 years to get their medical evac and treatment systems up to spec so they're now a far cry from the cluster f%$& they were in at the start of the war. The most common figure for deaths I've seen lately is about 75,000 KIA and you can bank on what? Twice that many as being too wounded to return to combat?

Over to the experts.

[Ironduke]

The only photos I'm aware of are from Crimea, disputed territory.

Here's an article from ABC News of Novorossiysk, documenting ships that had recently moved there from Sevastopol (Planet Labs).
https://abcnews.go.com/International...y?id=103776620

Here's from last month documenting the first train to cross from North Korea into Russia in several years (both sides of the border, Planet Labs).
https://www.38north.org/2022/11/firs...several-years/

Another article shows dragon's teeth and anti-tank ditches in Russia along the border of Belarus north of Ukraine (Planet Labs).
https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-...-50332069.html

Here's one showing Engels Airbase near Saratov (Maxar).
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...es-2022-12-06/

Here's another with the infamous tires on the bomber at Engels (Maxar).
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/...06-p5e2bb.html

I could probably find and post similarly themed commercial satellite photography of Russia from now til New Years and still not run out of photos to find. I don't think Maxar and Planet Labs are asking Russian permission. I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

[Officer of Engineers]

I so stand corrected which now makes sense Russian threats to down these birds.

[S2]

Particularly good Perun release-

Training, Lessons Learned. Discussion with Gen. Ben Hodges.

[jlvfr]

Has anyone seen this? North Korean ammunition is ‘causing barrels of Russian artillery to explode’

Saw this news in various sites, but can't a professional/official opinion.

[Albany Rifles]

Has anyone seen this? North Korean ammunition is ‘causing barrels of Russian artillery to explode’

Saw this news in various sites, but can't a professional/official opinion.

Artillery munitions are actually very precisely made, monitored and measured...at least in western nations. Poorly designed and built munitions can cause what is formally called an in-bore premature demolition of projectiles. This is when the round cooks off in the barrel. Warsaw Pact made munitions are notorious for having weak shell walls which result in this and also if fired properly the ensuing shrapnel is very uneven. Western artillery projectiles have a great reputation of providing evenly sized shrapnel pieces which helps provide a more precise lethality pattern.

Additionally, the West moved away from COMP A/B/C explosive filler which had stability issues to HMX/RDX explosive fillers which are MUCH more stable. Production of RDX/HMX explosives are much more difficult to produce so that may also be an issue.

Also environmental factors while storing ammo can cause issues. Recall my post about 19 months ago about the sloppy and unprofessional ways the Russians stored their munitions stocks. This could also have a negatie impact.

North Korean produced small arms munitions are fine. But their artillery munitions have a rep for having poor quality control. So none of this surprises me to be true.

[TopHatter]

Artillery munitions are actually very precisely made, monitored and measured...at least in western nations.

I wonder how those DPRK shells were stored and for how long...

[Albany Rifles]

I wonder how those DPRK shells were stored and for how long...

That was also on my mind which is why I added that tidbit.

I once watched an improperly stored 81mm White Phosphorus mortar round get fired. It had laid on its side in the bright Georgia August sun. That melted the WP inside and allowed it to pool on one side. When they round was fired it came tumbling out of the tube! It hit the tree line about 50 meters in front of the firing position, burst open and sprayed WP all through the woods starting a forest fire. Range Control LOVED that!

Very effective lesson learned by a bunch of Infantry 2nd Lieutenants!

[TopHatter]

Novocherkassk (BDK-46), a Ropucha-class landing ship, reported destroyed by Ukraine, waiting on confirmation

[Ironduke]

That's one hell of a fireball, claimed to be coming from the Novocherkassk:

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...68053539405897

This photo claims to show the Novocherkassk aflame in Feodosia:

https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/...694564/photo/1