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Out of curiosity is Ukraine likely to get any unitary warhead ATACMs. A certain bridge needs some structural re-adjustment is all.
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Last edited by Monash; 21 Oct 23,, 01:27.If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true. -
Some sources are claiming as many as 21 Russian helicopters were destroyed in the strikes on Berdiansk and Luhansk.
https://nitter.net/GeoConfirmed/stat...32980652310662Last edited by Ironduke; 21 Oct 23,, 01:26."Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."Comment
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Eventually they probably will, especially as PrSM production ramps up. As Buck said, ATACMS will become more and more excess to needs.Originally posted by Monash View Post
There is a case to be made for keeping the Kerch Strait bridge open though (if that's what you were referring to)
Sweet fancy Moses...Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”Comment
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I watched the video TH. It was made last year so it's a bit out of date albeit some of the points raised are still relevant. On balance though I think the strategic situation might have moved on given the changed nature the battlefield now e.g.construction of Russia's strong defensive line and the impact it's had on the ability of Ukraine to make further surprise/lighting offensives that recapture significant tranches of territory. That and the fact new weapon systems (e.g. Storm Shadow and ATACMS etc) now give Ukraine the chance to really strangle Russia's supply lines into Crimea. Something that wasn't an option back when the video was made. I guess I'm saying that if Ukraine can't do the former for the foreseeable future then it probably needs to do the latter.Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
Eventually they probably will, especially as PrSM production ramps up. As Buck said, ATACMS will become more and more excess to needs.
There is a case to be made for keeping the Kerch Strait bridge open though (if that's what you were referring to)
Sweet fancy Moses...Last edited by Monash; 21 Oct 23,, 13:32.If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.Comment
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Perun's latest video is out Gents and is top class as usual. This weeks topic 'Game Changers in Ukraine' (what were, weren't and why).If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.Comment
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Perun's latest video is out gents and is top class as usual. This weeks topic 'Game Changers in Ukraine' (what were, weren't and why).If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.Comment
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Looking at the stalemated front lines ... what game changers?ChimoComment
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None really. He basically deconstructs media hype and expectations around the impact various weapon systems the West has provided had or will have on the war and does a cost/benefit analysis of them which includes costs to the enemy.Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View PostLast edited by Monash; 24 Oct 23,, 01:30.If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.Comment
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Definitely one of his better uploads...and that's some tough competition too.Originally posted by Monash View Post“He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”Comment
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I argue that he's been more wrong than right. HOWEVER, he ALWAYS added that CAVEAT that the future will always proved him wrong. This current upload ONLY contradicts what he posted in the past vis-a-vi HIMARS, LEO 2s, ... any other silver bullets. In short, this recent post is only a CYA post.Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
Example, before I even view his post, the stalemate already told me there is zero game changer.
Perun is not a soldier and there is zero reason to treat his expertise as combat expertise.Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 24 Oct 23,, 04:02.ChimoComment
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In fairness Colonel, Perun isn't pretending to be a soldier nor are his videos aimed ant bringing purely military perspective to the conflict. From the start of the war and with his first postings on the topic he has repeatedly stated that he does not have military background and generally refers his audience to other sources for expert opinion on the military ramifications of the subjects he posts about. His area of expertise is apparently defense economics/analysis and his last video clearly reflects that background.Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
One of Perun's biggest selling points with his audience is that he routinely admits he does not know what he does not know and as such his opinions are qualified. So I think your criticism is a tad harsh. For one thing he has no way of knowing 6 months in advance exactly how much of any particular system Ukraine is going to receive or at what rate. Hell he even even pointed out in his most recent video that his assessments of some of the systems he was talking about and the 'rankings' they got would have been different had they arrived earlier and in greater quantity. Unfortunately his crystal ball is still out of service due to parts shortages.Last edited by Monash; 24 Oct 23,, 13:27.If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.Comment
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I argue that he's repeating things that others have already produced, especially THE CHIEFTAN (LCol Nicholas Moran) concerning the JAVELINs and the other ATGMs and especially about all the tanks (LEO Is/IIs, CHALLY IIs, M1XXs).Originally posted by Monash View Post
As such, I think Perun is a extremely valuable history researcher. He covers a lot of details that pertains to the CURRENT execution of the war BUT I WILL NOT RELY on him on the future events of the war. Case in point, he's already wrong on Russian munition expenditures in this point and vehicle replacements are not being hindered even though they're older models but that has not hamper Russian military commitments.
What he says TODAY applies greatly to TODAY but I would ignore what he says about tomorrow.Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 24 Oct 23,, 06:43.ChimoComment
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Reports that the Russians have seen some success northeast of Avdiivka, advancing up to the railway line east of Stepove, with a total advance of 1.5km in the past 24 hours. The Russians will need to advance about 9km total to cut off the Avdiivka salient."Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."Comment
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And another change on "how to do things now that we have drones": Ukraine develops unmanned mine detectorComment
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