2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[TopHatter]

Pearl Harbour, 7 Dec 1941.

Japan wasn't able to attack Pearl Harbor at will.

[Officer of Engineers]

Japan wasn't able to attack Pearl Harbor at will.

Please explain to me the context because I'm failing to understand at will. 7 Dec 1941 was at will and devastating.

[Officer of Engineers]

I am not aware of any nation whose anchorages were subject to attack at willing managing to win in the long term. Even the US only managed a stalemate in 1812-14 and that vs a distracted GB.

I can think of several now that I put my mind to it. Japanese Invasions of Korea (1592-1598), Ming Invasion of Taiwan, PRC's hits on Quemoy and Matsu, War of 1812 (British burned the White House), Mongol Invasions of Japan, Salamis (Athens was burned before), Rome's Wars against the Pirates, and of course WWII Japan who hit British Asia, Dutch Indies, as well as American Pacific Holdings.

[TopHatter]

Please explain to me the context because I'm failing to understand at will. 7 Dec 1941 was at will and devastating.

In this case I think Jason meant "repeatedly and substantially".

Pearl Harbor was a one-time thing.

(A couple of Emilys not withstanding)

[astralis]

I'm reading the link. No HHC were hit, just dead Cols. But even if one HHC was hit or two or even all 3 do not translate to a dead BDE. There's still 6 combat effective COYs commanded by a Bde HQ. Regardless, none of this translate to a dead 72 MRB ... and Eric is old enough and senior enough to read this.

note I used TWO qualifiers….:)

Ukrainians claim encirclement and destruction. Even with the fog of war and taking the Ukrainian claims at face value, I agree it’s unlikely that this means the BDE was wiped. However, it would mean that the brigade is combat ineffective for the time being.

of course the Ukrainians aren’t reporting on the status of their own Third Separate Assault Brigade, so we don’t know how operationally significant this is (or not).

[TopHatter]

Ex-Russian general warns 'lies' may obscure the battlefield realities of how Ukraine's troops are gaining ground


A 155-mm M109 self-propelled howitzer fires onto Russian positions near the occupied Ukrainian city of Bakhmut on August 17, 2023 in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine

• An ex-Russian general said "lies" are obscuring the reality that Ukraine's troops are gaining ground.
• Gurulyov confirmed that Ukraine has adapted to clear minefields and employ counter-drone attacks.
• His Telegram message also said Russian victory is being prevented by "lies" and "false reporting."

An ex-Russian general acknowledged that Ukraine's troops are gaining ground on the battlefield, warning that lying and false reports in the military's highest echelons are keeping Moscow from achieving victory.

On Friday morning, Russian Parliament member and former deputy commander of the Southern Military District Andrey Gurulyov posted a message on Telegram assessing the state of Ukraine's counteroffensive more than three months after Kyiv officially launched its push against extensive eastern and southern Russian defenses. His points were sharply at odds with the victoriousness and censorship that often characterize Russian war commentary.

Gurulyov wrote that Ukraine's troops have changed their combat tactics, "have a lot of ammunition," and "are trying to burn out absolutely everything," according to a translation.

"They are no longer moving forward in large forces; they were obviously forbidden to lose heavy equipment en masse," he said, noting that the Ukrainians "have switched to squeeze-out tactics" and "are massively using cluster shells, inflicting damage on the stronger points of our units."

The "situation forces our troops to retreat deeper," Gurulyov added.

The ex-general's comments offer a blunt Russian view of the mounting counter-offensive fighting to get past Russia's tough defenses, particularly the complex defensive Surovikin Line just south of Orikhiv, a city in the southern Zaporizhzhia region. In late August and earlier this month, Kyiv's forces managed to make major breakthroughs in the area with the goal of striking a line all the way down to the Sea of Azov, splitting Russian occupied land in half.

It also adds weight to reports that Ukraine has learned to clear Russia's dense minefields, which posed a major roadblock earlier in the counteroffensive, and "have a lot of drones" that they use effectively both in counter-drone combat at the front line and deeper in Russian territory.


A Ukrainian soldier of 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade puts camouflage on a tank's muzzle on September 11, 2023 in Eastern Ukraine, Ukraine.

Gurulyov also suggests that Ukraine is having success deterring the attack helicopters that had stymied its early advance. They've "created conditions making it impossible to use anti-tank missiles by our helicopters," Gurulyov wrote, and used shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles like the US-made Stingers to strike Russian attack helicopters.

Gurulyov, a member of Russian President Vladimir Putin's United Russia party, has previously shared a Russian general's account that his troops were losing ground in artillery battles, a warning that would prove prescient.

In his Telegram message, Gurulyov warned about the state of war. While assuring Russian troops are stronger and will endure, adapt, and win, he added: "Victory is separated from us only by one serious problem of ours - lies. Yes, there is less of it than there was at the beginning of the SMO, but it is there."

SMO refers to "special military operation," the euphemism Russia has applied to its full-scale, devastating invasion of Ukraine now in its 19th month.

"False reports, unfortunately, lead to poor decisions at many levels," Gurulyov added, suggesting that Ukraine's advances and the reasons for them may not be getting reported up the chain of command, preventing a proper response. That's a problem that has plagued Russia's command since the beginning of their war in Ukraine.

Gurulyov previously made headlines for sharing an audio message from a senior Russian general saying he'd been dismissed from his post after questioning Defense Ministry decisions and raising concerns about the lack of counter-battery combat and mass casualties on the Russian side.
____________

Let's Go Vranyo!

[Albany Rifles]

Pearl Harbour, 7 Dec 1941.

Sir,

As sits in the US its Pearl Harbor.

We left U behind!

[Ironduke]

HQ of the Black Sea Fleet hit by what looks to be three Storm Shadow missiles.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66901227

Ukrainians are reporting the strike occurred during a meeting of some top brass at the building.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/23/7421073/

Unverified claims that the commander of the BSF, Admiral Sokolov was killed in the strike.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...99749811745149

Video of the 2nd or 3rd Storm Shadow hit caught on cell phone camera:

[jlvfr]

Is it just me or the Ukrayne seems intent or really putting the screws on the Black Sea fleet? Maybe it's related to protecting the grain ships?

[TopHatter]

Is it just me or the Ukrayne seems intent or really putting the screws on the Black Sea fleet? Maybe it's related to protecting the grain ships?

Couple of possibilities. Russian ships have proven pretty soft targets, most especially when in port (although that's hardly unique to the Russian Navy) and nothing screams weakness like major warships with giant smoking holes in them....except maybe a burning Tu-22M or three. So there's plenty of propaganda value there.

And it's entirely likely that they're trying to hamper Russian resupply capability in order to isolate the Crimean peninsula.

[Albany Rifles]

They're heeeerre!!!

More to follow later

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...aine-war-news/

Ukraine live briefing: First U.S.-supplied M1 Abrams tanks arrive in Ukraine


DNIPRO, Ukraine — The first batch of U.S.-provided M1 Abrams tanks has arrived in Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday — nine months after President Biden reversed course by committing to send 31 of the advanced battle tanks. U.S. military officials have said the deliveries would be gradual but that they expected them all to arrive in the coming weeks.

Are you on Telegram? Subscribe to our channel for the latest updates on Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“I am grateful to the allies for fulfilling the agreements,” Zelensky said, hailing the tanks’ arrival. In March, the Pentagon said it would send the tanks by the fall, after facing scrutiny for initially saying it could take a year or two to get the weapons to the battlefield.

[jlvfr]

Ok... could this be real?! It would certainly explain the timing of the strike...

Russian officers who hadn't been paid by Moscow sold key intel on the Black Sea Fleet to Ukrainian resistance fighters. Then the headquarters blew up

[Monash]

Ok... could this be real?! It would certainly explain the timing of the strike...

Russian officers who hadn't been paid by Moscow sold key intel on the Black Sea Fleet to Ukrainian resistance fighters. Then the headquarters blew up

Who cares? From Ukraine's perspective the story has huge/long lasting psychological warfare potential regardless of whether it's true or not. If it is true? Then troops, NCO's and junior officers serving in Ukraine will know if its true and will be tempted to act as a result. If its not? Then worst case scenario vulnerable/disgruntled Russian soldiers in Ukraine will wonder if it is true (and might just be tempted to try and find out). If that happens? Ukraine will promptly make it true. Either way Moscow loses.

[jlvfr]

Who cares? From Ukraine's perspective the story has huge/long lasting psychological warfare potential regardless of whether it's true or not. If it is true? Then troops, NCO's and junior officers serving in Ukraine will know if its true and will be tempted to act as a result. If its not? Then worst case scenario vulnerable/disgruntled Russian soldiers in Ukraine will wonder if it is true (and might just be tempted to try and find out). If that happens? Ukraine will promptly make it true. Either way Moscow loses.

"First we got the helo pilots, now naval officers. Defection shop is open, comrades!"

[kato]

Poland just confirmed it's a S300

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/16/w...ile-s-300.html

Given the ranges involved (old variant max 90 miles), it would be extremely unlikely it was a Russian S300 and more likely, a Ukrainian missile went astray trying to knock down incoming Russian fire.

Poland has now officially ruled - has "an unequivocal opinion" - that the missile that crashed back in November and killed two people in Poland was a Ukrainian 5-W-55 (produced in Soviet times) fired by a S-300 complex that was located on Ukrainian territory, with only Ukrainian units within range at the time.

Poland has also officially stated that to their regret Ukraine has not been cooperative at all in the investigations, and Polish Minister of Justice Ziobro has made statements that he believes the decision to not cooperate "was made at a high political level in Ukraine". Ziobro is also the attorney general for the government of Poland, and within his own (nationalist) party considered a right-wing hawk.

As usual it's also internally political. There are parties in the upcoming election in Poland that demand that Ukraine has to pay reparations for the killings and the damage.