2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Monash]

...
But a frigate can be easily detected and is therefore at much greater risk. A sub just has to swim to point X, shoot and swim home....

This is the Black Sea we're talking about not he Pacific or Atlantic Ocean. All Kalibr anti-ship models have a range in the hundreds of kilometers and they could probably be modified for land attack duty with only slight modification. The actual land attack version has a range in the thousands of kilometers. So regardless of the model used the Russian Navy can hit almost all of Ukraine with Kalibrs from just about anywhere in the Black Sea. The only thing keeping them from doing so from right off the Ukrainian coast being being fear of missile attack in return. That being the case they don't really need subs to 'sneak' up into attack range.

Also as has been noted Kilo class subs can apparently only be loaded out with four Kalibr missiles at a time and once fired have to return to port to reload. That's a very slow and expensive way of trying to beat Ukraine into submission, especially considering there were only four (now three) Kilos on station with Black Seas Fleet to begin with. The Russians also have three modern frigates stationed in the Back sea that can launch 8 Kalibrs each (for a total of 24) assuming the Russians can still scrape up enough of them to fill their cells.

In reality? This past year or so the Russian Black Seas Fleet has pretty much been sidelined in terms of offensive operations. They can risk sailing near the Ukrainian coast and apparently don't seem have much in the way of long range strike missiles left in their inventory anyway. Well not that they're showing any signs of being willing to use.

[jlvfr]

This is the Black Sea we're talking about not he Pacific or Atlantic Ocean. All Kalibr anti-ship models have a range in the hundreds of kilometers and they could probably be modified for land attack duty with only slight modification. The actual land attack version has a range in the thousands of kilometers. So regardless of the model used the Russian Navy can hit almost all of Ukraine with Kalibrs from just about anywhere in the Black Sea. The only thing keeping them from doing so from right off the Ukrainian coast being being fear of missile attack in return. That being the case they don't really need subs to 'sneak' up into attack range.

Also as has been noted Kilo class subs can apparently only be loaded out with four Kalibr missiles at a time and once fired have to return to port to reload. That's a very slow and expensive way of trying to beat Ukraine into submission, especially considering there were only four (now three) Kilos on station with Black Seas Fleet to begin with.

I know about their range, but anything on the surface can be found and potentially sunk from shore, specially now that the Ukraine has longer ranged-weapons. A US/EU intel source (satelite, ELINT/radar plane) or even an ukranian drone picks something up and... I realise the cruiser sunk was less than 100km from the coast, so any remaining missile ships are most likely being placed further out, but I doubt very much they are that far out. It would put them completely out of ground-based air and sensor cover. I wouldn't be surprised if they just sail a couple hundred miles out of Sevastopol, possibly keeping the bulk of Crimea between them and the ukranians, and then shoot from there. Whereas a sub can fire from any angle & location after traveling in stealth. A sub can also carry out ELINT/intel, but sneaking up on the coast, poping up an EW mast and just listen.

[Monash]

I know about their range, but anything on the surface can be found and potentially sunk from shore, specially now that the Ukraine has longer ranged-weapons. A US/EU intel source (satelite, ELINT/radar plane) or even an ukranian drone picks something up and... I realise the cruiser sunk was less than 100km from the coast, so any remaining missile ships are most likely being placed further out, but I doubt very much they are that far out. It would put them completely out of ground-based air and sensor cover. I wouldn't be surprised if they just sail a couple hundred miles out of Sevastopol, possibly keeping the bulk of Crimea between them and the ukranians, and then shoot from there. Whereas a sub can fire from any angle & location after traveling in stealth. A sub can also carry out ELINT/intel, but sneaking up on the coast, poping up an EW mast and just listen.

So far the Ukrainians haven't been bale to sink any of the modern Corvettes and Frigates assigned to the Black Sea Station. The only major asset they've sunk was of course the Moskva and it was the only one of her class that hadn't been upgraded with modern sensors and weapons at the time of her sinking. The main reason she was stationed in the Black see was for show/for PR purposes i.e. as a flag ship of the Black Seas fleet. She was almost 40 years old at the time of her sinking.

This lack of success is mainly to to a critical shortage of anti-shipping missiles. Some of their original stock were, I believe converted for land attack purposes at the start of the invasion. Some more have been provided by the west but initially only enough to serve as a deterrence against approaching the Ukrainian coast, That may be slowly changing now that Storm Shadow etc are being supplied but the thing is when at Sea the Russian warships are deploying in protective formations with overlapping fields of fire and radar coverage. Unless they caught the Russians napping as they apparently did with the Moskva it would take a lot of missiles to break through they're defenses and score a hit. The Uki's only have so many to spare at the moment and a lot of targets to prioritize. So they plan carefully and seem to be concentrating on hitting ships and port facilities at the same time in situations where the ships are defendant on shore batteries for protection.

[Ironduke]

I wonder if these recent successes in attacking targets in Crimea has been helped by drone strikes on Moscow and other targets in Russia, if for example there's been any diversion of air defense assets that would have deployed to Crimea/occupied Ukraine, thus weakening AD there.

[Monash]

I wonder if these recent successes in attacking targets in Crimea has been helped by drone strikes on Moscow and other targets in Russia, if for example there's been any diversion of air defense assets that would have deployed to Crimea/occupied Ukraine, thus weakening AD there.

There's been media reports and 'expert' commentary on this question in the media. From the reports I've seen? Yes, the drone strikes on Moscow and elsewhere deep inside Russia are deemed to be having an impact. The recent successful attacks on a Russian bomber airbase outside Moscow being an example. The consensus seems to be that Russian air defenses are being spread thin. Russia is huge and there are hundreds of military bases and factories/critical infrastructure sites that need to be defended. And once again it doesn't help that Russia seems to have critically underestimated the number of air defense missiles it would need in the event of a long running war with near peer adversary. (Shades of the west and its artillery stockpile levels post the cold war 'peace' dividend.)

[zraver]

Thise drydocks are out of commission as well. Until they can scrap in situ or float the wrecks out anyways plus repair whatever damage the docks and dock infastructure suffered. Just about every dry drock Russia had in the BS region is now holding a wreck. They may still have one more smaller civilian one in Rostov on Don and a couple of floating ones but the BSF is running out of places to repair damage.

I am not aware of any nation whose anchorages were subject to attack at willing managing to win in the long term. Even the US only managed a stalemate in 1812-14 and that vs a distracted GB.

[jlvfr]

Thise drydocks are out of commission as well. Until they can scrap in situ or float the wrecks out anyways plus repair whatever damage the docks and dock infastructure suffered. Just about every dry drock Russia had in the BS region is now holding a wreck. They may still have one more smaller civilian one in Rostov on Don and a couple of floating ones but the BSF is running out of places to repair damage.

Re:

[astralis]

Ukraine reports that the Russian 72nd Motor Rifle Brigade was encircled and destroyed near Andriivka,

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1702575119359484169

first time they were badly damaged in May, so this looks like a reconstituted brigade wrecked.

[Ironduke]

Only being repeated by more sensationalistic outlets so far, Ukrainian intelligence is claiming Kadyrov is in a coma and in critical condition.

https://kyivindependent.com/military...cal-condition/

[Officer of Engineers]

Ukraine reports that the Russian 72nd Motor Rifle Brigade was encircled and destroyed near Andriivka,

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1702575119359484169

first time they were badly damaged in May, so this looks like a reconstituted brigade wrecked.

Oh come on, Eric. This is Ukrainian propaganda. 3 BN COs/Cols killed do not translate to a dead Bde. The Ukrainians ain't even claiming to kill 3 HHCs, just 3 dead BN COs, not even a BDE CO. BN 2ICs would automatically assumed Command and carried on. 72 MRB isn't dead by any stretch of the imagination by Ukrainian claims.

Only being repeated by more sensationalistic outlets so far, Ukrainian intelligence is claiming Kadyrov is in a coma and in critical condition.

https://kyivindependent.com/military...cal-condition/

Hurrahh!!!! YES!!!! I hope the fucker HURTS!!!!!!!!

[Monash]

Ukraine reports that the Russian 72nd Motor Rifle Brigade was encircled and destroyed near Andriivka,

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1702575119359484169

first time they were badly damaged in May, so this looks like a reconstituted brigade wrecked.

Out of curiosity exactly how many men does the average (rebuilt) Russian infantry brigade have at this stage of the war? Some sites state upwards of about 3000 or so officers and troops. But that was pre-war and many units were far below authorized strength even before the war even began. (Courtesy of Major General Bribesvinski. So while not meaning to downplay the importance of this achievement at all how likely is it really that we're talking about a 'Brigade' containing only few hundred men, not a few thousand?

Its just that at this stage of the war I'm starting to get the distinct impression that many of the Russian formations currently engaged in fighting are only 'companies', 'regiments' and 'brigades' etc on paper.

[Officer of Engineers]

Out of curiosity exactly how many men does the average (rebuilt) Russian infantry brigade have at this stage of the war? Some sites state upwards of about 3000 or so officers and troops. But that was pre-war and many units were far below authorized strength before the war even began. Courtesy of Major General Ima Bribesvinski. So while not meaning to downplay the importance of this achievement at all how likely is it really that we're talking about a 'Brigade' containing only few hundred men, not a few thousand?

Its just at that at this stage of the war I'm starting to get the distinct impression that many of the Russian formations currently engaged in fighting are only 'companies', 'regiments' and 'brigades' etc on paper.

Thank you, Monash, fir giving me the insight to see through the propaganda.

Allow me to translate, 72 MRB's frontage has not been collapsed even when 72 MRB has been claimed to be destroyed.

The Ukrainians killed 3 Colonels. That's all.

[Officer of Engineers]

I am not aware of any nation whose anchorages were subject to attack at willing managing to win in the long term. Even the US only managed a stalemate in 1812-14 and that vs a distracted GB.

Pearl Harbour, 7 Dec 1941.

[Monash]

Thank you, Monash, fir giving me the insight to see through the propaganda.

Allow me to translate, 72 MRB's frontage has not been collapsed even when 72 MRB has been claimed to be destroyed.

The Ukrainians killed 3 Colonels. That's all.

Well hopefully there were more casualties than that. It sounds like the Uki's clobbered another command post. Either that or three random Colonels chose a very unfortunate place to just stop and have a quick chat and smoko.

[Officer of Engineers]

Well hopefully it there were more casualties than that. It sounds like the Uki's clobbered another command post. Either that or three random Colonels chose a very unfortunate place to just stop and have a quick chat and smoko.

I'm reading the link. No HHC were hit, just dead Cols. But even if one HHC was hit or two or even all 3 do not translate to a dead BDE. There's still 6 combat effective COYs commanded by a Bde HQ. Regardless, none of this translate to a dead 72 MRB ... and Eric is old enough and senior enough to read this.