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  • Originally posted by S2 View Post
    At this point Ukraine is 68 k north of Melitopol city limits. Even at this continued incremental pace, your transit routes will almost certainly be under Ukrainian guns by November. Further east, the advance towards Berdyansk/Mariupol may offer even better possibilities. All of these cities were always the high risk/high reward destinations...and EVERYBODY (including Russia) knew it
    With artillery? Or HIMARS? Ukraine has advanced about 6, maybe 7km tops in the direction of Robotyne. At the current pace, they will have advanced another 6 or 7km further. I don't think that would put Melitopol within artillery range.

    If their advance comprised only a salient pushing out from Robotyne, I wouldn't want to put my HIMARS where it could hit from three sides by the Russians.

    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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    • Looks like a Ukrainian drone got itself a Tu-22M:

      https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-russia...-drone-attack/
      Last edited by Ironduke; 20 Aug 23,, 17:13.
      "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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      • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
        Looks like a Ukrainian drone got itself a Tu-22M:

        https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-russia...-drone-attack/
        That'll buff right out...


        “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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        • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
          Looks like a Ukrainian drone got itself a Tu-22M:

          https://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-russia...-drone-attack/
          Rumour has it that many of the air defences for this base had been stripped out & sent to protect Moscow. Cannot confirm, but its a good story.
          sigpic

          Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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          • The Russian space program remains an example of a sub-par nation overextending itself. At least this version of the moon program didn't produce the largest non-nuclear explosion in history this time.

            MOSCOW, August 20. /TASS/.

            A successful strike on the illegal Ukrainian Moobase has resulted in the destruction of 546 X-Wings 1,532 Y-Wings, 36 Battlestars 7,620 Leopards 2s and 457,006 HIMARS according the Russian defense ministry in its Sunday press briefing. Russia's Space Commander Lord General Marshal Igor Pulabollockov has also confirmed the deaths of Commander Adama, President Zelensky and Galactic Fleet Adimiral Daffy Duck in his post strike ranting.
            sigpic

            Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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            • Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
              The Russian space program remains an example of a sub-par nation overextending itself. At least this version of the moon program didn't produce the largest non-nuclear explosion in history this time.
              In fairness there has been no investment in major new systems for decades within the Russian space program, even under Putin. It wasn't a priority for him. They had the Soyuz launch system, a series of relatively reliable satellite launch platforms and that was basically all they needed. Right up to the moment China and India reignited the space race and America bought back in. Given the war, the impact that's had on the economy/government budget and the long term and now accelerated brain drain? They have no hope of being a major player this decade and probably not till late next decade - at the earliest.

              Maybe if Putin asks nicely China will let some Russian cosmonauts come along for the ride.
              Last edited by Monash; 21 Aug 23,, 23:39.
              If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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              • Would it be fair to say the expectations of a Ukrainian advance through the heavily fortified area north of Melitopol was at best overly optimistic?
                They lack so much equipment to achieve this objective that they can only get from the West, primarily the US. It just doesn't seem to be arriving fast enough and in the right quantities at present. F16's just seem to be the latest Silver Bullitt theory in a long line of equipment that is required to achieve the results expected

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                • Originally posted by statquo View Post
                  U.S. intelligence says Ukraine will fail to meet offensive’s key goal

                  Thwarted by minefields, Ukrainian forces won’t reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, a vital Russian transit hub, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment

                  The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won’t fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia’s land bridge to Crimea in this year’s push.

                  The grim assessment is based on Russia’s brutal proficiency in defending occupied territory through a phalanx of minefields and trenches, and is likely to prompt finger pointing inside Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counteroffensive that saw tens of billions of dollars of Western weapons and military equipment fell short of its goals.

                  Ukraine’s forces, which are pushing toward Melitopol from the town of Robotyne more than 50 miles away, will remain several miles outside of the city, U.S. officials said. U.S., Western and Ukrainian government officials interviewed for this report spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.

                  The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.

                  Melitopol is critical to Ukraine’s counteroffensive because it is considered the gateway to Crimea. The city is at the intersection of two important highways and a railroad line that allow Russia to move military personnel and equipment from the peninsula to other occupied territories in southern Ukraine.

                  Ukraine launched the counteroffensive in early June hoping to replicate its stunning success in last fall’s push through the Kharkiv region.

                  But in the first week of fighting, Ukraine incurred major casualties against Russia’s well-prepared defenses despite having a range of newly acquired Western equipment, including U.S. Bradley Fighting Vehicles, German-made Leopard 2 tanks and specialized mine-clearing vehicles.

                  Joint war games conducted by the U.S., British and Ukrainian militaries anticipated such losses but envisioned Kyiv accepting the casualties as the cost of piercing through Russia’s main defensive line, said U.S. and Western officials.

                  But Ukraine chose to stem the losses on the battlefield and switch to a tactic of relying on smaller units to push forward across different areas of the front. That resulted in Ukraine making incremental gains in different pockets over the summer.

                  Kyiv has recently dedicated more reserves to the front, including Strykerand Challenger units, but has yet to break through Russia’s main defensive line.

                  The path to Melitopol is an extremely challenging one, and even recapturing closer cities such as Tokmak will be difficult, said Rob Lee, a military analyst with the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

                  “Russia has three main defensive lines there and then fortified cities after that,” he said. “It’s not just a question about whether Ukraine can breach one or two of them, but can they breach all three and have enough forces available after taking attrition to achieve something more significant like taking Tokmak or something beyond that.”

                  The bleak outlook, briefed to some Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill, has already prompted a blame game inside closed-door meetings. Some Republicans are now balking at President Biden’s request for an additional $20.6 billion in Ukraine aid given the offensive’s modest results. Other Republicans and, to a lesser extent, hawkish Democrats have faulted the administration for not sending more powerful weapons to Ukraine sooner.

                  U.S. officials reject criticisms that F-16 fighter jetsor longer-range missile systems such as ATACMS would have resulted in a different outcome. “The problem remains piercing Russia’s main defensive line, and there’s no evidence these systems would’ve been a panacea,” a senior administration official said

                  In an interview this week, Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the United States has been clear about the difficult task facingUkraine.

                  “I had said a couple of months ago that this offensive was going to be long, it’s going to be bloody it’s going to be slow,” he told The Post. “And that’s exactly what it is: long, bloody and slow, and it’s a very, very difficult fight.”

                  While not achieving its objectives, he noted Kyiv’s success in degrading Russian forces. “The Russians are in pretty rough shape,” he said. “They’ve suffered a huge amount of casualties. Their morale is not great.”

                  U.S. officials said the Pentagon recommended multiple times that Ukraine concentrate a large mass of forces on a single breakthrough point. Though Ukraine opted for a different strategy, officials said it was Kyiv’s call to make given the profound sacrifice Ukrainian troops were making on the battlefield.

                  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Thursday acknowledged the slow pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive but said Kyiv would not stop fighting until all its land is retaken. “We don’t care how long it takes,” he told the news agency Agence France-Presse.

                  He encouraged critics of the offensive to “go and join the foreign legion” if they wanted faster results. “It’s easy to say that you want everything to be faster when you are not there,” he said.

                  Ukrainian officials have said privately that timing depends on how quickly forces can penetrate the minefields — a difficult process that has strained the military’s mine-clearing resources across a wide swath of territory.

                  Analysts say the challenges Ukraine has faced are multifaceted, but nearly all agree that Russia surpassed expectations when it comes to its proficiency in defending occupied territory.

                  “The most deterministic factor of how this offensive has gone thus far is the quality of Russian defenses,” said Lee, noting Russia’s use of trenches, mines and aviation. “They had a lot of time and they prepared them very well … and made it very difficult for Ukraine to advance.”

                  Questions have also been raised about how Ukraine committed its forces and in which areas.

                  The Ukrainians have for months poured tremendous resources into Bakhmut, including soldiers, ammunition and time, but they have lost control of the city and have made only modest gains in capturing territory around it. And while the close-in, trench-line fighting is different in Bakhmut from the problem of mines in the south, the focus has left some in the Bidenadministration concerned that overcommitting in the east may have eroded the potency of the counteroffensive in the south.

                  The new intelligence assessment aligns with a secret U.S. forecast from February indicatingthat shortfalls in equipment and force strength may mean that the counteroffensive will fall “well short” of Ukraine’s goal to sever the land bridge to Crimea by August. The assessment, detailed in a classified document leaked onto the social media app Discord, identified Melitopol or Mariupol as the objectives “to deny Russian overland access to Crimea.”

                  U.S. officials said Washington was still open to Kyiv surprising skeptics and overcoming the odds. One defense official said it is possible that Ukraine could buck historical norms and continue the counteroffensive through the winter, when everything including keeping soldiers warm and stocked with food and ammunition becomes much more difficult.

                  But that would relyon several important factors, such as the amount of rest troops need after a hard fighting season. It would also depend on how much specialized equipment and cold-weather clothing they have on hand, the defense official said. But Moscow may also outperform during winter military operations.

                  “Russians are known to be capable of fighting in cold weather,” the official said.
                  This reads to me like an administration intentionally leaking this to get the Ukrainians to accept the status quo and come to a negotiating table. It's a logical ploy for the administration as well. We're less than 15 months away from an election, and while they clearly would rather win the election next year, they can't guarantee that, and it's in their interest that Ukraine accept the status quo while they're still backed with allies rather than the war is still going on, election comes, and an administration comes in less friendly to giving aid, and I don't think the Europeans are going to be as giving without American leadership, which leads to Russia having the upper hand.

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                  • Originally posted by rj1 View Post

                    This reads to me like an administration intentionally leaking this to get the Ukrainians to accept the status quo and come to a negotiating table. It's a logical ploy for the administration as well. We're less than 15 months away from an election, and while they clearly would rather win the election next year, they can't guarantee that, and it's in their interest that Ukraine accept the status quo while they're still backed with allies rather than the war is still going on, election comes, and an administration comes in less friendly to giving aid, and I don't think the Europeans are going to be as giving without American leadership, which leads to Russia having the upper hand.
                    If you believe the administration in Washington is going to change its position on Ukraine if the Republicans gain power. This inevitably will undermine NATO and the Wests Defensive structure, it doesn't read well for sure.

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                    • Originally posted by Joćo View Post
                      If you believe the administration in Washington is going to change its position on Ukraine if the Republicans gain power. This inevitably will undermine NATO and the Wests Defensive structure, it doesn't read well for sure.
                      Almost all Congressional Republicans are publicly (or silently) pro-Ukraine. There's just the elephant in the room...

                      Biden pulling us out of Afghanistan and referencing Iraq was talking about America supporting endless wars with unclear objectives and he didn't want to hand it off to another President.

                      Comment


                      • In the event Trump was elected and the war was still going, I'd expect some kind of thing like Reagan coming to office and the Iranian Hostage Crisis ended, not that Trump would do anything to deserve it, just the situation materially changed and drove it.

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                        • Originally posted by Monash View Post

                          In fairness there has been no investment in major new systems for decades within the Russian space program, even under Putin. It wasn't a priority for him. They had the Soyuz launch system, a series of relatively reliable satellite launch platforms and that was basically all they needed. Right up to the moment China and India reignited the space race and America bought back in. Given the war, the impact that's had on the economy/government budget and the long term and now accelerated brain drain? They have no hope of being a major player this decade and probably not till late next decade - at the earliest.

                          Maybe if Putin asks nicely China will let some Russian cosmonauts come along for the ride.
                          Why on earth be fair? If Putin is underfunding his space program but still trying to land stuff on the moon it deserves derision. Its not like he can't find the money, he is just using it to murder his neighours. Fuck 'em.

                          I'm hoping India manages to successfully land its moon mission just to rub it in that Russia is now a 3rd world nation. Given how Russia sees itself and the general view of 'lesser' nations/ethnicities that will hurt as much as this mission crashing & burning.
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                          Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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                          • Russia has good space-related equipment, the Souyz alone is proof of that. But nothing survives the combined effect of resource and personel shortages, with I'm willing to bet was an extra rush forced by Putin&Co for propaganda purposes...
                            Last edited by jlvfr; 22 Aug 23,, 13:38.

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                            • Originally posted by Bigfella View Post

                              Why on earth be fair? If Putin is underfunding his space program but still trying to land stuff on the moon it deserves derision. Its not like he can't find the money, he is just using it to murder his neighours. Fuck 'em. ...
                              I was being 'fair' to the engineers and scientists who work on the program, not to the Russian government. If nothing else history has shown that their predecessors, if given the appropriate funding could do some first class work in astronautics. I'm reasonably sure that given a half chance the current generation researchers could have built on that legacy. Now? They're never going to get the chance.

                              Now the Russian space program is just another example of how far behind Russia is falling and will continue to fall, all thanks to the actions of one man with a giant Napoleon complex.
                              If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by rj1 View Post

                                Almost all Congressional Republicans are publicly (or silently) pro-Ukraine. There's just the elephant in the room...

                                Biden pulling us out of Afghanistan and referencing Iraq was talking about America supporting endless wars with unclear objectives and he didn't want to hand it off to another President.
                                Afghanistan was a Pigs Ear and totally unnecessary

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