2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Officer of Engineers]

the Russians were right to fear the TB2; Kadyrov's thugs apparently got hit by them as well and have withdrawn for now.

Anyway to claim a rogue AI PREDATOR followed them home?

[Versus]

Well, it seems that this thing will be over pretty soon. By my humble opinion Russians never wanted to invade and occupy the whole of Ukraine. It is costly and unsustainable at the longer run and actually they don't need it. What they wanted is security of Crimea and possibly some strategic depth with Donetsk and Lugansk. Since that couldn't be achieved with the current Ukraine elite, option A was to rush in and try to topple the regime and install proxy govt that will be neutral towards NATO expansion and EU hallucinations (namely open borders, cheap aka free energy and raw materials like in the 90'es,that case of titanium shovels is still fresh in my mind, and other stuff from Russia). Option B is to divide the Ukraine along Dnieper river, in such a way that Eu can get their lovely nightingales in Kiev while Russia will get the rest (namely land and natural resources). Most likely the option B is now on the table so we could see establishing the no fly zone and withdrawal of Russian forces to the Dnieper river bank. EU has saved the Ukraine from evil Russians, Russians got what they actually wanted US can finally discipline its allies and everybody wins. Except Ukrainians. All the energy that was meant for Europe will be used in rebuilding the Russian part of Ukraine or diverted to domestic consumption or even better re routed to China. Russian gas and oil will flow to China, China will make cheap goods for the US and everyone is happy. Except EU, they are in for a very wild ride.

[TopHatter]

Sweden, Finland pledge military aid for Kyiv

STOCKHOLM (Associated Press)— The Nordic nations of Sweden and Finland say they will send military aid to Ukraine including anti-tank weapons, helmets and body armor.

Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist said at a news conference Sunday that Stockholm would ship 5,000 anti-tank weapons, 5,000 helmets, 5,000 units of body armor and 135,000 field rations in support to Ukraine’s military.

Neighboring Finland said earlier Sunday that it would send 2,000 helmets, 2,000 bulletproof vests, 100 stretchers and equipment for two emergency medical care stations as aid to Ukraine.

Russian forces invaded its smaller neighbor Thursday, drawing sanctions and international condemnation.
____
U.S. urges American citizens in Russia to leave "immediately"

MOSCOW — The U.S. Embassy in Moscow urged American citizens in Russia to think about leaving the country immediately on Sunday, as some airlines halt flights there and some countries close their skies to Russian aircraft.

“U.S. citizens should consider departing Russia immediately via commercial options still available,” the Embassy said in a statement on its website.

U.S. officials in recent weeks have urged Americans not to travel to Russia, and warned that the U.S. government could not help in any evacuation of Americans from there.

An earlier alert recommended Americans develop contingency plans about how to leave the country if necessary.

The European Union was among those announcing Sunday they were closing their airspace to Russian flights

[tantalus]

A CNN team south of Belgorod, Russia, near the Ukrainian border has observed Russian vehicles that are broken down or inoperable, as US and Western officials say that a portion of the Russian forces amassed on the border with Ukraine were unusable.

The team has seen several broken-down armored personnel carriers, an armored vehicle being towed, a howitzer that was being repaired on the side of the road when its track had come off, and more.

On the eve of the invasion, US officials said approximately 80% of Russia’s military force amassed on Ukraine’s borders was in forward positions.

A US official said the US believes a portion of the remaining force was inoperable. At the same time, a European official said that Russia’s fictional pullback in the days before the invasion was actually an attempt to remove broken vehicles from the field.

A senior defense official said Sunday morning that Russia still has a significant capacity of forces that have not yet been deployed into Ukraine.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...-22/index.html

[Officer of Engineers]

This is the most surprising thing for me also, given the pre-war 'western' agit-prop. doing the rounds.

13/24 Their Ukrainian opponents have clearly planned and wargamed their overall defensive scheme of maneuver over many years. It appears to be methodical, disciplined with a clear sense of what is important to defend, and what is not.

Err, no. The Ukrainians have done far worst strategically and operationally than the Russians. The Russians owned the country side. Isolation and reduction. The Ukrainians are isolated. They've just not been reduced.

and

17/24 Military leadership in the Ukrainian forces so far has also stood the ultimate test of military leaders – combat. This has been in evidence from their senior leadership deploying military forces & keeping their people informed, to their tactical operations.

MOUT falls to company and platoon leadership. Often you don't know your platoon has failed until the enemy tank is in the next block over.

and

19/24 Good leadership has always been a defining feature of successful combat forces. With their military leaders, the Ukrainians seem to have managed to sustain a good balance of what Andrew Gordon in ‘Rules of the Game’ called ‘ratcatchers’ and ‘regulators’.
20/24 The ratcatchers are the warfighters and combat leaders who have spent their lives dedicated to the study of war, combat and military leadership. They are the ones, at each level, who win wars.
21/24 The regulators are those who, in peacetime, maximise their promotion potential through the study of process, attendance at committees and focus on the bureaucratic side of military organisations. You need some of these in war and peace, but not too many.
22/24 It does help to have a clear and present threat to build and maintain the right balance of the two military leadership styles.
23/24 But my observation is that in many western military institutions (including my own), the regulators have been on the ascendant for many years. This must change if we are to successfully defend against the forces of high-tech authoritarian regimes in the years ahead..

No, No, and Damned No! Amateurs think strategy and tactics. Professionals think logistics. Off the top of my head of US Generals, Grant, Sheriden, Bradley, MacArthur, Eisenhower, and of British Generals Montgomery and Slim, and of Russian Generals Chuikov and Zhukov are a breed known as Industrial Generals. They're logistics minded Generals in that they gather their overwhelming force before they commit to action. Except for MacArthur and Slim, these Generals pulverized German ratcatchers to a wet napkin. Even Patton, WWII's #1 manouver General spent 48 hours redirecting his logistics before he swung north to relieve Bastion.

Our spear shaft to spear tip ratio is 10 to 1 - 10 men in the rear supporting the one man leading the charge. The Russians are a bit thinner in 6 to 1. Sure Kiev and Kharkiv are putting up a hell of a fight but does anyone see any resupply or re-enforcement coming through to them? In the meantime, new troop columns and truck convoys are crossing the Russian-Ukrainian border.

[TopHatter]

U.S. sending Stinger MANPADS directly to Ukraine

WASHINGTON — The U.S. for the first time has approved the direct delivery of Stinger missiles to Ukraine as part of a package approved by the White House on Friday.

The exact timing of delivery is not known, but officials say the U.S. is currently working on the logistics of the shipment. The officials agreed to discuss the development only if not quoted by name.

The decision comes on the heels of Germany’s announcement that it will send 500 Stinger missiles and other weapons and supplies to Ukraine.

The high-speed Stingers are very accurate and are used to shoot down helicopters and other aircraft. Ukrainian officials have been asking for more of the powerful weapons.

Estonia has also been providing Ukraine with Stingers since January, and in order to do that had to get U.S. permission.
_________

[TopHatter]

If you are on Twitter and looking for good analysis I recommend LTG (Ret) Mark Hertling's account @markhertling . LTG Hertling was Commander, US Army Europe about a decade ago. He has seen how the Ukrainian Army has improved over the last 2 decades. He also gives good analysis on the Sov...err...Russian forces (sorry, Freudian slip).

Great summation from LTG Hertling:

After one of my CNN appearances, one of the anchors asked me off-air why I had confidence in Ukraine's army to push back against the Russian military onslaught. I used a bit of "battlefield math" to explain my rationale.

There are two major factors most military folks consider to determine combat power: the force's resources and the force's will to fight. There are more elements under each of these categories that contribute to military capabilities.

The force's resources: that's quantity (size of the force, number of different capabilities ... air, artillery, armor), quality of equipment, extent and specificity of their training, their logistics & ability to resupply, their intelligence, ETC.

The force's will: soldiers' morale, a belief in the cause for which they fight, support they receive from both their fellow citizens & their government's leadership, their unit leaders ... and especially, what they get from their comrades. Values are a big piece of this. There are historical examples where a force with superior will can defeat a force with superior resources. Forces with an unshakable belief in what they are fighting for -- with enough support -- can overcome a force that appears to have superior resources.

The Russians currently have an advantage in resources. The quantity of their force provides a quality all its own, their equipment is relatively good (not great), their artillery and long range fires are devastating, and they have air superiority. But ...

Russian training sucks -- I say this having seen Russians train & seeing how they conduct "exercises". Their logistics and intelligence are clumsy. Their soldiers are mostly 1-year conscripts, not professionals, and they have a poor NCO corps. Their officers, for the most part, are terrible.

When I first served with Ukrainian soldiers, in 2004, they were also poorly led, trained, & disciplined -- but they have improved, significantly, because of revamped training, more battlefield experience, and good leaders. Since then, Ukraine's army has continued to evolve -- and now, they have an extremely supportive population, good officer & NCO leadership, they are a professional force with a good reserve, & their government is also supportive. Add to this, Ukraine now has allies, all over the world.

Putin has turned the Russian effort into one receiving scorn, because of the lies and crimes he has committed. That will worsen as Russian forces continue to commit battlefield atrocities, which they will.

Combined Russian conventional, unconventional, cyber, air, arty & special ops tools are tough to counter -- but the Russians are on the offensive, which means they have to maintain the momentum, and suffer losses against an adversary that is fighting back stubbornly. By all evidence, Ukrainian resistance is stiffening. The Ukrainians will wear down an enemy that already has low morale & an even lower support from their population back in Mother Russia.

The Russian Army is not motivated to fight for Putin. They will see their cause as suspect, and will be discouraged by more battlefield casualties than expected. The casualties will lead to even more protests at home.

t will likely be a long fight. Putin will be increasingly portrayed as a loser who made a rash gamble and lost. He will go the way of Stalin, Hitler, Ceausescu, Saddam. Ukraine will prevail.

I think that will be the deciding factor: Morale. Put in the simplest terms possible, the Russians don't want to be there and the Ukrainians don't want them to be there either. That doesn't make for a good outcome if you're the Russians.

[Officer of Engineers]

Ok, Putin, time to call it a win and go home. Zelensky came to you to talk peace

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...d-peace-talks/

[kato]

The exact timing of delivery is not known, but officials say the U.S. is currently working on the logistics of the shipment.

Meanwhile Denmark has flown 200 Stingers to Ukraine today.

[Chunder]

FWIW, both Germany and Italy have recently stated today that they are willing to enact SWIFT sanctions. It sounds like they were waiting to determine avenues on mitigating the negative economic effects of those measures before changing course.

Yeah it appears that way - and of course giving time for the oligarcs to get their money out. It's really easy to do so. One particular customer of ours only pays via telegraphic transfer - same day. Once you have provisions for doing it - which the rich do, there's no dramas.

Speculation though, it would have taken the diplomatic corps a bit of time to wrap their heads sufficiently around it to forcefully argue the point.

Either way, quite glad it has happened.

[astralis]

Sure Kiev and Kharkiv are putting up a hell of a fight but does anyone see any resupply or re-enforcement coming through to them? In the meantime, new troop columns and truck convoys are crossing the Russian-Ukrainian border.

until they're surrounded and closely invested, then yes. all of Europe is throwing ammo and arms at Ukraine now.

do they even have enough troops to invest Kyiv? there's 2.9 million people there spread over 330 square miles/840 km-- and the Russians don't have air superiority. this is a serious question, not rhetorical. I'm thinking the number of people we threw at Fallujah, which is magnitudes smaller.

[zraver]

Err, no. The Ukrainians have done far worst strategically and operationally than the Russians. The Russians owned the country side. Isolation and reduction. The Ukrainians are isolated. They've just not been reduced.

MOUT falls to company and platoon leadership. Often you don't know your platoon has failed until the enemy tank is in the next block over.

No, No, and Damned No! Amateurs think strategy and tactics. Professionals think logistics. Off the top of my head of US Generals, Grant, Sheriden, Bradley, MacArthur, Eisenhower, and of British Generals Montgomery and Slim, and of Russian Generals Chuikov and Zhukov are a breed known as Industrial Generals. They're logistics minded Generals in that they gather their overwhelming force before they commit to action. Except for MacArthur and Slim, these Generals pulverized German ratcatchers to a wet napkin. Even Patton, WWII's #1 manouver General spent 48 hours redirecting his logistics before he swung north to relieve Bastion.

Our spear shaft to spear tip ratio is 10 to 1 - 10 men in the rear supporting the one man leading the charge. The Russians are a bit thinner in 6 to 1. Sure Kiev and Kharkiv are putting up a hell of a fight but does anyone see any resupply or re-enforcement coming through to them? In the meantime, new troop columns and truck convoys are crossing the Russian-Ukrainian border.

Winners study all 3.

Lets look at the facts we can all agree to

1. Ukraine cannot beat the Russian's in the field. Except for the marsh to the north near Belarus the country is a sea of grass. It has a few major rivers, rivers the Russian's already know where and how to cross. In that sea of grass are several islands of concrete. They are the only places the Ukrainians can make a stand. High explosive makes defensive positions out of buildings the same in 2022 as it did in 1945. If Ukraine resisted this was never going to be anything but an urban battle.

2. Kyiv is the center of Ukrainian political life and ultimately the only thing that matters.

3. Ukraine's only chance of winning is too hold Kyiv long enough for (hoped for) western sanctions to bite and make the Russian's pay a high enough price that peace looks more attractive than war.

4. The longer the war goes on, the more support Ukraine gets and the weaker Russia looks. Putin needed a quick win and Zelenski fleeing to deliver a fait accompli and the installation of a puppet government.

5. Zelenski's, "I need ammunition not a ride" comment aborted any ideas of a puppet government being able to govern according to Russia's whims.

My take is that the Russian advance has not been impressive. Them reaching Kyiv was a forgone conclusion. Yet, Zelenski did not flee. Zelenski's staying may doom him to a Russian firing squad, but it also doomed any chance of any installed government having legitimacy. If Putin kills him, Zelenski will become a George Washington like figure in Ukrainian mythos, he might already be. Plus the ordinary Ukrainian soldier didn't cut and run. In an open field fight with their artillery dominance and being able to choose the time and place of the attack I don't think anyone could take the first blow on the chin from Russia and stay standing. Russia having all the aces and still reaching Kyiv in a tardy fashion after having an assault by "elite" paras and then Chechens defeated makes the whole thing look snafued no matter the actual timetable. Outside of Kharkiv the Russians have taken another bloody nose. Even together these do not presage defeat. What they do, is encourage more Ukrainian resistance, that translates into more dead Russians. Moms and dads are going to stop getting calls from junior, or if they are blessed, get a call from junior letting them know he is a prisoner in Ukraine. They will talk to other moms and dads. There are already anti-war protests going on, wait till body counts start rolling in. You can't shut up a parent who has lost a son, they have nothing left to lose. Then when Dad tries to go to work and gets told he has been laid off....

The hoped for sanctions have materialized, and tomorrow (in just a couple hours) when the markets open the ruble is going to collapse from its current 87:1ish ratio to probably well over 100:1 and will continue sliding. With the Central Bank kicked out of SWIFT, they can't stop the slide. Putin runs Russia as a tribal confederation. His oligarchs represent chieftains of various industrial "tribes" and their loyalty is dependent on Putin delivering wealth that they can keep some of and use the rest for a patronage system centered on jobs inside of their various "tribes". That wealth is cut off. No wealth, no jobs, no jobs means revolution. Putin's one lifeline to avoid that was Xi. Putin's nuclear saber rattling may have been aimed at Washington but it bulls eyed the Forbidden City. Everything China has worked for, that is now within inches of achieving via elite capture and cheap baubles is now on the chopping block because Xi chained himself to a rabid dog. China understands face better than us in the West, so I don't expect any high and mighty pronouncements. I do think however, that the phone lines between Bejing and Moscow have been hot today, and probably from Bejing to Washington and Kyiv as well. Putin may well be under a lot of Chinese pressure to take anything that can be painted as mission accomplished and go home. China does not want to inherit hegemony over a dead rock.

[nvishal]

Zelenskiy is an immature leader. Don't expect much from him.

[Officer of Engineers]

until they're surrounded and closely invested, then yes. all of Europe is throwing ammo and arms at Ukraine now.

But we're not throwing convoys and troop columns. The Ukrainians still have to get it from their border to the front. Translation: the Ukrainians have to raise a relief army and a maneouver army at that. An effort much more substantial than arms and money.

do they even have enough troops to invest Kyiv? there's 2.9 million people there spread over 330 square miles/840 km-- and the Russians don't have air superiority. this is a serious question, not rhetorical. I'm thinking the number of people we threw at Fallujah, which is magnitudes smaller.

That's not what the Ukrainians are fearing. They're worried about starvation.

Kyiv mayor Klitschko reveals Ukraine is approaching a ‘humanitarian crisis’ - Bloody Elbow

Once you get over the initial hype, things aren't looking so good. Zelensky has to get this over fast as well.

1. Ukraine cannot beat the Russian's in the field. Except for the marsh to the north near Belarus the country is a sea of grass. It has a few major rivers, rivers the Russian's already know where and how to cross. In that sea of grass are several islands of concrete. They are the only places the Ukrainians can make a stand. High explosive makes defensive positions out of buildings the same in 2022 as it did in 1945. If Ukraine resisted this was never going to be anything but an urban battle.

Battle of Kursk tells you the wonders of 3 static defensive lines with bunkers, anti-tank guns, and buried hull down tanks could do to maneuver armies. All you need are men, shovels, and time.

Winners study all 3.

Logistics wins each and everytime. A small force only has one chance to kill a larger force. Hit hard, hit fast, hit everywhere, and keep on hitting and that means sustainment.

2. Kyiv is the center of Ukrainian political life and ultimately the only thing that matters.

3. Ukraine's only chance of winning is too hold Kyiv long enough for (hoped for) western sanctions to bite and make the Russian's pay a high enough price that peace looks more attractive than war.

4. The longer the war goes on, the more support Ukraine gets and the weaker Russia looks. Putin needed a quick win and Zelenski fleeing to deliver a fait accompli and the installation of a puppet government.

5. Zelenski's, "I need ammunition not a ride" comment aborted any ideas of a puppet government being able to govern according to Russia's whims.

Kiev is running out of food.

[Officer of Engineers]

Great summation from LTG Hertling:

Forces with an unshakable belief in what they are fighting for -- with enough support -- can overcome a force that appears to have superior resources.

Hoped you noticed this qualifier.