2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Officer of Engineers]

Since the Kursk went down. That is why Russia tries so hard to control the domestic narrative. That is one battle they are flat out being defeated in. But the parents of the Kursk sailors are not the only ones now. Those kids fighting and dying in Ukraine are the kids of Russians, not former Soviets. They group up with media access and tech. They are connected to the world. Maybe not as solidly as you or I, but they are not North Koreans. Hacker groups and anti-war Russians are being heard inside Russia despite state controls. Or in some cases like the hacking of state TV, because of state controls. Like I said, Russia can hide bodies, not amputees or phone calls from mommy and daddy to friends after they get a call from junior who is now a prisoner in Ukraine. Even the ability to hide the bodies is going to be hard if UA estimates are anything close to factual. The equipment levels they claim to have destroyed now exceed a divisions worth.

The only times public opinion mattered in Russia was revolution - when the army started choosing sides. I see zero indication of this happening. Even from Ukrainian own claims, they only 200 POWs and I believe Ukrainian claims as much as I believe Russia's.

Sir, I disagree with you. I think that first 35% are their best assault troops and the remaining 65% are split between some operational reserves and various combat support and service support troops. They don't have the tail western armies do, but they do have a tail. Twitter and western media are both saying, Russia has gone from trying to take multiple cities to focusing efforts of Kyiv alone (or Kyiv and Kharkiv). That can only mean they are running out of troops, consumables or both. I had asked a question earlier in the thread about how many pgm's Russia had to use in it's inventory. The bombardment of Kharkiv last night would seem to indicate not very many anymore.

PGM inventories mean nothing. We've ourselves expended 10 times more dumb munitions than PGMs in Kuwait, Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan because they work. You yourself has fallen into the trap of thinking that it was Russian plan to take multiple cities when the timeline just doesn't make sense. You cannot issue orders at the operational level and expected to be carried out within a 24 hour period. You have to figure out how to divert your logistics as well as not leave yourself vulnerable to counter-attacks. To follow your line of thinking, the Russians would have to have decided that their plan failed within 24 hours of engagement. That's like saying we didn't take Baghdad in one day, we failed. And I remind you that we didn't take Basra until after Baghdad fell. And Basra was on the list before Baghdad. If I were to follow your line of thinking, I would expect yesterday or today was decision day to abandon the multiple city operation. Dividing the enemy - Defeat In Detail is the more likely explaination.

Russia hasn't been defeated on the battlefield, but neither has Ukraine. Russia however has already lost the war long term.

This is only Day 4 for Pete sakes. We couldn't take Ukraine this fast. The only thing I agree with you both is that Putin has lost the propaganda war but it's damned unrealistic to expect the Russians planned a 24 hour operation to take all of Ukraine.

[zraver]

Russians destroyed the AN-225

[Officer of Engineers]

Hard to square "probing" with the video of the bombardment.

reccee by fire

[tantalus]

https://twitter.com/KremlinTrolls/st...52062562349062

[Zad Fnark]

Thought I read somewhere that all the vehicles with a "V" on the side deployed from Belarus.

[Parihaka]

[*]Permanently raise defence budget above 2% GDP.[*](Seek increased energy independence from Russia by expanding coal and gas reserves and building two LNG terminals.)

Well my lord, something good has come out of this

[kato]

"Permanently" means for the duration of the current government and the current crisis of course.

[Parihaka]

"Permanently" means for the duration of the current government and the current crisis of course.

Ah. Ah well....

[zraver]

The only times public opinion mattered in Russia was revolution - when the army started choosing sides. I see zero indication of this happening. Even from Ukrainian own claims, they only 200 POWs and I believe Ukrainian claims as much as I believe Russia's.

Sir, agree to dissagree. I think the way Putin runs Russia makes it more susceptible to public pressure than you might think. He suppresses negative press because he has too.

PGM inventories mean nothing. We've ourselves expended 10 times more dumb munitions than PGMs in Kuwait, Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan because they work.

We use PGM's for close air support. The combination of PGM's plus proffessional troops has proven devastating against an army equipped and trained along the lines of the UA. Russia needed PGM's even more than we do becuase they have to compensate for conscript troops who by and large do not have veteran leadership.

You yourself has fallen into the trap of thinking that it was Russian plan to take multiple cities when the timeline just doesn't make sense. You cannot issue orders at the operational level and expected to be carried out within a 24 hour period.

Sir, I am merely looking at the vids on twitter. There are enough different vids to show that UA claims are at least possible. Not just burntout, but abandoned equipment. Defenders don't get to film the attackers equipment losses if the defender is falling back. Current UA claims amount to two divisions worth of equipment lost. Even by old WWII era Soviet standards that is heavy.

You have to figure out how to divert your logistics as well as not leave yourself vulnerable to counter-attacks. To follow your line of thinking, the Russians would have to have decided that their plan failed within 24 hours of engagement. That's like saying we didn't take Baghdad in one day, we failed.

I am not now and have not been saying the Russians are defeated, just that they are taking a beating to advance. I do think they have lost the war long term. However, I am beginning to suspect that Russia thinks they are beign beaten. You don't nuclear saber rattle if you think you can win with conventional high explosives.

And I remind you that we didn't take Basra until after Baghdad fell. And Basra was on the list before Baghdad. If I were to follow your line of thinking, I would expect yesterday or today was decision day to abandon the multiple city operation. Dividing the enemy - Defeat In Detail is the more likely explaination.

If you are going to bag an enemy force and pin them in a built up area why launch attacks to storm the city? Russia tried to storm Kharkiv last night. How much effort? But it wasn't just artillery and they paid in blood for it. They also had several different axis of advance aimed at population centers that seem to have changed course. Maybe that was the plan from the beginning, or maybe its because losses v reduced size of the modern RA and stiffer than expected UA resistance means they have to concentrate for the main effort. I think the RA thought the UA would be the same one they fought in Crimea. It is obviously not. As one Ukrainian said this is their war of independence. When the USSR fell Ukraine was made free by fiat, they never had to bleed for it. Now they are bleeding for it.

This is only Day 4 for Pete sakes. We couldn't take Ukraine this fast. The only thing I agree with you both is that Putin has lost the propaganda war but it's damned unrealistic to expect the Russians planned a 24 hour operation to take all of Ukraine.

I think they expected the UA to collapse by now. It hasn't, so the butcher bill is going up and the sanctions are going to hurt. The ruble collapses tomorrow as soon as the markets open. Russians are already making runs on banks trying to get cash.

[zraver]

Twitter claiming the Russian chief of staff of the armed forces has been fired.

[astralis]

to start today's posting on a more jocular note: Ukrainian TB2 lighting up a Russian convoy.

https://twitter.com/no_itsmyturn/sta...09704114659329

the Russians were right to fear the TB2; Kadyrov's thugs apparently got hit by them as well and have withdrawn for now.

====

anyhow, what OoE mentioned is now coming to pass: Russian military is clearly aiming to surround Kyiv and Mariupol. for some reason they keep on trying to ram their heads directly into Kharkiv and are getting savaged for it, despite the heavy artillery bombardment.

[Versus]

Aaand...nuclear option is on the table...Shoigu before and after receiving orders.

[Zad Fnark]

[Officer of Engineers]

Sir, agree to dissagree. I think the way Putin runs Russia makes it more susceptible to public pressure than you might think. He suppresses negative press because he has too.

I see no changes in how the operation is being conducted. I see no desperation on part of the the Russians.

We use PGM's for close air support. The combination of PGM's plus proffessional troops has proven devastating against an army equipped and trained along the lines of the UA. Russia needed PGM's even more than we do becuase they have to compensate for conscript troops who by and large do not have veteran leadership.

If so, they should have a lot more PGMs than we do, especially when they declare us their main adversary. They don't. Never-the-less, thier lack of numbers do not indicate a decline of current combat effectiveness.

Sir, I am merely looking at the vids on twitter. There are enough different vids to show that UA claims are at least possible. Not just burntout, but abandoned equipment. Defenders don't get to film the attackers equipment losses if the defender is falling back. Current UA claims amount to two divisions worth of equipment lost. Even by old WWII era Soviet standards that is heavy.

Has it occurred to you that the normal civie can't tell the difference between Russian and Ukrainian equipment. I certainly can't if they're burnt out husks. I was suspecting Russian losses until I saw burnt out JAVELIN crates.

I am not now and have not been saying the Russians are defeated, just that they are taking a beating to advance. I do think they have lost the war long term. However, I am beginning to suspect that Russia thinks they are beign beaten. You don't nuclear saber rattle if you think you can win with conventional high explosives.

That part was coming once Putin himself was sanctioned. Moscow stated such sanctions would mean the US and Europe are severing relations with Russia. With that, Moscow considers any treaty they had to be null and void, including the Arms Reduction Treaties. The nuclear sabre rattling is aimed at Washington, not Kiev

If you are going to bag an enemy force and pin them in a built up area why launch attacks to storm the city? Russia tried to storm Kharkiv last night. How much effort? But it wasn't just artillery and they paid in blood for it. They also had several different axis of advance aimed at population centers that seem to have changed course. Maybe that was the plan from the beginning, or maybe its because losses v reduced size of the modern RA and stiffer than expected UA resistance means they have to concentrate for the main effort. I think the RA thought the UA would be the same one they fought in Crimea. It is obviously not. As one Ukrainian said this is their war of independence. When the USSR fell Ukraine was made free by fiat, they never had to bleed for it. Now they are bleeding for it.

Again the time span is too soon for such decisions to be made, especially with the Russian command structure where Regimental HQ decides what Platoon level actions. I don't sit in the Russian Operation HQs. All I can do is to understand their actions afterwards. As for Kharkiv, it is a must take if you want to threaten all Eastern Ukraine. It's the most logical spot for an assembly area.

I think they expected the UA to collapse by now. It hasn't, so the butcher bill is going up

I don't see Operational panic nor desperation.

and the sanctions are going to hurt. The ruble collapses tomorrow as soon as the markets open. Russians are already making runs on banks trying to get cash.

Small comfort for those dying in the streets and way above the paid grades involved in the fighting.

[Officer of Engineers]

Twitter claiming the Russian chief of staff of the armed forces has been fired.

If true, then this is a sign of desperation but I found no collaborating evidence.