2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[astralis]

would be interested in comments on this:

https://twitter.com/delfoo/status/1497498201527521281

seems to match what we see: Kyiv thrust with heavy armor inbound. the Javelins are going to be expended at a high rate shortly.

Actually thinking this through, a good old fashion seige. Starve Zelensky out. There is absolutely zero reason why the Russians could not use time as a weapon.

would require more logistics than they seem to have right now, and it seems pretty clear Putin wants this wrapped up fast and relatively cleanly (by Russian standards). no Grozny...yet.

[Parihaka]

Actually thinking this through, a good old fashion seige. Starve Zelensky out. There is absolutely zero reason why the Russians could not use time as a weapon.

Zelenskyy holds the 'nuclear' option. Putin and Europe are both praying for a speedy and successful invasion.

[astralis]

one last post from me for this evening. per Marco Rubio (someone I have no use for, but he's posting decent stuff as Senate Vice Chairman for the select committee on Intelligence -- ie he sees most of what the Prez can see).

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/statu...72049283969028

We know what #Putin’s plan was:

- air dominance in first 12 hours

- Destroy #Ukraine military comms in 36 hours

- Bypass major urban areas,cut off Eastern Army,encircle #Kyiv & get govt to flee within 48 hours

-Install puppet govt within 72 hours

He is still 0 for 4

[Officer of Engineers]

one last post from me for this evening. per Marco Rubio (someone I have no use for, but he's posting decent stuff as Senate Vice Chairman for the select committee on Intelligence -- ie he sees most of what the Prez can see).

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/statu...72049283969028

We know what #Putin’s plan was:

- air dominance in first 12 hours

- Destroy #Ukraine military comms in 36 hours

- Bypass major urban areas,cut off Eastern Army,encircle #Kyiv & get govt to flee within 48 hours

-Install puppet govt within 72 hours

He is still 0 for 4

Hate to tell you this but this is Russian mis-info. There's one thing Biden did absolutely shit about is to let Putin know we kniow. Putin is a spymaster. What do a Russian spymaster do once he knows you have his plans? Keep making you believe those are the plans. Making you see what you want to see.

Because none of this makes military sense. For #2, the internet is still up! Zelensky is still tweeting! And the internet is one of the easier ones to take down. Bomb the cell towers.

[nvishal]

The real headache starts after the seize. Ukraine is essentially like another Chechnya - A chronic problem. Installing a Russian friendly govt there means finding a Ukrainian version of Ramzan Kadyrov.

We Indians understand the Russian dilemma very well. These erstwhile castes(territories) are problematic. If you include them into the union, they spread their instability to another castes(regions). If you keep them separate(outcast them), they do mischievous activities(like pak) against the union(motherland).

Some human castes are intrinsically attracted to internecine warfare.

[TopHatter]

Some human castes are intrinsically attracted to internecine warfare.

They're genetically predisposed to internecine warfare?

[nvishal]

Caste does not equal race/genetics. But since castes around the world practice endogamy, you are not right or wrong to assume this flaw.

[TopHatter]

Caste does not equal race/genetics. But since castes around the world practice endogamy, you are not right or wrong to assume this flaw.

I'm not assuming anything, I'm trying to get a better idea of what you're saying. Regardless, this is off-topic.

[kato]

German chancellor Scholz in a fairly long formal speech in parliament an hour ago has announced five steps that the German government is taking:

1. Support Ukraine with weapon deliveries from Germany and Allies as an answer to Putin's aggression
2. Deter Putin from further aggression through sanctions and embargos, both against the country, its private business and "responsible individuals".
3. continue to increase deployed Bundeswehr units to support Eastern-European NATO allies.
   1. Maintain Battlegroup in Lithuania (being expanded with reserve forces).
   2. Contribute to second Battlegroup in Slovakia being built up (Germany will also take command of this second Battlegroup).
   3. Continue current adhoc-formed Air Policing deployment in Romania (training deployment with Italy was transformed to that)
   4. Continue current adhoc deployment of German Navy ships in patrols in Baltic Sea and Mediterranean.
   5. Ready air defence forces for deployment on NATO eastern borders if required.
4. Invest to increase Bundeswehr capabilities:
   1. Establish an immediate 100 billion Euro budget for 2022 to increase Bundeswehr capabilities.
   2. Permanently raise defence budget above 2% GDP.
   3. Prioritize projects with European partners, in particular France for new MBTs, future Eurofighter replacement and just signed Eurodrone project. Replace Tornado with SEAD-enabled Eurofighters and consider F-35 for nuclear delivery (and yes, he named the thing usually not named). Procure Heron UCAV from Israel.
   4. Increase hybrid warfare and cyber resilience.
   5. (Seek increased energy independence from Russia by expanding coal and gas reserves and building two LNG terminals.)
5. (didn't quite catch that - lots of bla about "ceasing naive exterior politics" of recent years and about alliances and "defending a peaceful Europe")

There was a lot of serious pathos and patriotistic platitudes throughout the speech, going as far as "we shall defend every square meter of NATO" and a "do not ask what you can get out of Brussels for your own country, but ask what is the best decision for The Union". The speech was accentuated by standing applause from most of the plenum (except the right-extremist pro-Putin AfD faction).

[tantalus]

Ukrianians reporting that the light units that entered Kharkiv (footage circulating from the streets earlier) have been repelled with heavy russian caulaties. Just probing by the russians by all accounts

[zraver]

Ukrianians reporting that the light units that entered Kharkiv (footage circulating from the streets earlier) have been repelled with heavy russian caulaties. Just probing by the russians by all accounts

Hard to square "probing" with the video of the bombardment.

[zraver]

And since when are the Russians casualty adverse? When did their losses cripple their operational plans?

Since the Kursk went down. That is why Russia tries so hard to control the domestic narrative. That is one battle they are flat out being defeated in. But the parents of the Kursk sailors are not the only ones now. Those kids fighting and dying in Ukraine are the kids of Russians, not former Soviets. They group up with media access and tech. They are connected to the world. Maybe not as solidly as you or I, but they are not North Koreans. Hacker groups and anti-war Russians are being heard inside Russia despite state controls. Or in some cases like the hacking of state TV, because of state controls. Like I said, Russia can hide bodies, not amputees or phone calls from mommy and daddy to friends after they get a call from junior who is now a prisoner in Ukraine. Even the ability to hide the bodies is going to be hard if UA estimates are anything close to factual. The equipment levels they claim to have destroyed now exceed a divisions worth.

And lastly, the Ukrainians are fighting tooth and nail against only 35% of the Russian massed force. The elephant has yet to come over the hill.

Sir, I disagree with you. I think that first 35% are their best assault troops and the remaining 65% are split between some operational reserves and various combat support and service support troops. They don't have the tail western armies do, but they do have a tail. Twitter and western media are both saying, Russia has gone from trying to take multiple cities to focusing efforts of Kyiv alone (or Kyiv and Kharkiv). That can only mean they are running out of troops, consumables or both. I had asked a question earlier in the thread about how many pgm's Russia had to use in it's inventory. The bombardment of Kharkiv last night would seem to indicate not very many anymore.

Not saying the Ukrainians are going to win this is just horse puckey. This is war. Winning is the only thing that matters. Anything else is just a poor excuse for a consolation prize.

It is perfectly fine to see the trees but don't ignore the forest.

Russia hasn't been defeated on the battlefield, but neither has Ukraine. Russia however has already lost the war long term. Everything she might have had as a goal is now out of reach. There will be no friendly government in Ukraine. NATO is upping defense spending and sending ground troops from nuclear armed members into the Baltics. Germany appears to be waking from its Russian energy induced slumber. Russia has been kicked out of SWIFT, and Putin his self has been targeted by sanctions. Turkey is considering declaring the action a war and blocking transit of the Bosphorus which bottles up the black sea fleet. Long term its hard to see how Russia emerges from this as anything but a vassal of China, when she went into the war as a partner not a vassal. Even Pornhub has blocked access from Russia effectively telling Russians if they want to wank they are out of luck. Intel has suspended chipsales, airspace is closed around almost all of Russia's western border. Her only air corridor to Kalininigrad oblast is now through Belarus. Hackers are beating Russia at the cyber game. This is a debacle for Russia.

[zraver]

Putin has ordered an alert for Russian nuclear forces. Thats an admission that he lost the war, but does not want to be defeated.

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian nuclear deterrent forces put on high alert Sunday amid tensions with the West over his invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking at a meeting with his top officials, Putin asserted that leading NATO powers had made “aggressive statements” along with the West imposing hard-hitting financial sanctions against Russia, including the president himself.

The alert means Putin has ordered Russia’s nuclear weapons prepared for increased readiness to launch. He told the Russian defense minister and the chief of the military’s General Staff to put the nuclear deterrent forces in a “special regime of combat duty.”

“Western countries aren’t only taking unfriendly actions against our country in the economic sphere, but top officials from leading NATO members made aggressive statements regarding our country,” Putin said in televised comments.

His order raised the threat that the tensions with the West over the invasion in Ukraine could lead to the use of nuclear weapons.

The Russian leader this week threatened to retaliate harshly against any nations that intervened directly in the conflict in Ukraine.

Putin puts Russia's nuclear deterrent forces on alert | AP News

[tantalus]

Hard to square "probing" with the video of the bombardment.

I havent seen that, Just a take that it was light vehicles that attempted to enter the city and a video of vehicles involved...I definitely might have the wrong take.

[zraver]

I havent seen that, Just a take that it was light vehicles that attempted to enter the city and a video of vehicles involved...I definitely might have the wrong take.

The video from last night showed a massive and concentrated grad bombardment much heavier than videos of grad bombardments earlier.