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  • Originally posted by astralis View Post
    If the Russkis have issues with C2 and logistics with “professional” troops, can’t imagine the fun the surviving officers are gonna have with this bunch.
    At least for Cols and above, I would feel a relief. Finally, they can flush out enitre divisions and do division level warfare instead of these piss ant battalions. At the very least flushed out full Battle Groups (1200 strong). Now, watch those dreams shatter.

    Originally posted by tbm3fan View Post
    I'm sure most all of those 3000,000, if it can be believed, are just absolutely thrilled about all this which I seriously doubt. This will really improve the morale of those up front now. When you get down to it how many of this new group want to go as they are really draftees now. I'm 23 trying to finish my courses and I have nothing against a 23 year old Ukranian trying to finish their courses and get on with their lives. So forth and so on all because of one man. They are not going to be as effective at all.
    Whatever they feel is now irrevelent. Their best chance at life is the guy next to you. You trust him with your life. You have to. Just as he trust his life with yours. This is no longer about whose wrong or right. This is about life and death and your best chance to live through the war is victory regardless if you're Russian or Ukrainian.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 23 Sep 22,, 23:17.
    Chimo

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    • At least for Cols and above, I would feel a relief. Finally, they can flush out enitre divisions and do division level warfare instead of these piss ant battalions. At the very least flushed out full Battle Groups (1200 strong). Now, watch those dreams shatter.
      I highly doubt “relief” is what they would feel. Even if those guys were trained, and both of us know that meat grinder troops MIGHT get just enough for weapon familiarity…when was the last time those Colonels and above -trained- to operate at battle group let alone division level?

      you made a very good point earlier about the Ukrainians needing training and experience prior to forming a maneuver corps or a division. (To which I would like to grin some more and say that this hasn’t escaped the notice of the US DoD…heh.)

      With the last offensive, they showed they could do a very credible combined arms BN level push, in fact, significantly better than the Russians have demonstrated thus far. The entire 4th Guards Tank Division, among other units, was wiped out in that attack.

      if those Colonels wanna play division level warfare with a bunch of mobilized and sketchily trained troops, they better pray that the only orders they get is “fight and die in place”.

      Whatever they feel is now irrevelent. Their best chance at life is the guy next to you. You trust him with your life. You have to. Just as he trust his life with yours. This is no longer about whose wrong or right. This is about life and death and your best chance to live through the war is victory regardless if you're Russian or Ukrainian.
      If the question is about maximizing chance of survival vs accomplishment of objective, then “running away” or “surrender” are also quite viable choices, as the Russians demonstrated two weeks ago.
      Last edited by astralis; 24 Sep 22,, 01:34.
      There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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      • Originally posted by Versus View Post
        Unconfirmed Russian drone swarm hit Odessa, today at 3:05 pm
        Looks like it's been confirmed

        Russia’s Drone War Erupts Thanks To Iran
        Russia’s Iranian-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones rain down around Odesa while a Mohajer-6 also makes its first appearance in the conflict.

        Multiple videos show a number of Shahed-136 UAVs cutting across the Ukrainian city of Odesa’s airspace, although some are different angles of the same aircraft. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s official Twitter account responded to these developments by divulging that the Ukrainian Army had destroyed six of the Shahed-136 suicide drones launched by Russia but neglected to provide any further information.

        In a statement to The War Zone, Andrii Ryzhenko, retired Ukrainian Navy captain and former member of that nation’s general staff, offered more context by explaining that a Shahed-136 drone strike had been successful in hitting the headquarters of a Ukrainian naval base in Odesa. He added that the UAV struck near the base’s cafeteria, killing one female affiliated with the military and injuring another who remained unidentified. Ryzhenko also expanded on the ministry’s post by confirming that Ukrainian air defenses had neutralized six drones but went on to note that one or two targets had been hit nonetheless.

        The War Zone cannot confirm the details of Ryzhenko's statements but it does fit generally with what we are seeing, although the true scope of the attacks remains murky.
        _______
        “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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        • In one particular area this is becoming a very 'unique' war and I'm talking about Phyops.

          Putin is virtually handing Ukraine a huge physiological warfare advantage. It was bad enough before when after 8 months of stalemate many of his prewar units, even those staffed by by contract soldiers were starting to suffer from serious morale issues but now??? He's literally reinforcing failure! Not only is he drafting reluctant conscripts to fight a war they can't see any point in to begin with but its one where the momentum is clearly turning against their side. Then add to that the following:

          - they won' have got the training to be effective or the time together to develop any unit cohesion or team work ethic;
          - they almost certainly wont be equipped properly and will be lead by officers who patently aren't much better prepared than they are!;
          - the icing of the cake? Now they're being told that it's a criminal offense to fail to advance when ordered, retreat or give ground (hell I believe it's now even a 'crime' to get captured!) and all while the families they left behind don't get the pay and support they've been promised.

          These new formations will be Phyops team wet dream in terms of combat 'messaging'. If I was were the Ukrainians I'd be creating every opportunity I could for mass defections. As I said I can't think of the last time a 'modern' western army with a long history of military success made itself so vulnerable to psychological warfare attacks.
          Last edited by Monash; 24 Sep 22,, 04:30.
          If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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          • Originally posted by Monash View Post
            In one particular area this is becoming a very 'unique' war and I'm talking about Phyops.

            Putin is virtually handing Ukraine a huge physiological warfare advantage. It was bad enough before when after 8 months of stalemate many of his prewar units, even those staffed by by contract soldiers were starting to suffer from serious morale issues but now??? He's literally reinforcing failure! Not only is he drafting reluctant conscripts to fight a war they can't see any point in to begin with but its one where the momentum is clearly turning against their side. Then add to that the following:

            - they won' have got the training to be effective or the time together to develop any unit cohesion or team work ethic;
            - they almost certainly wont be equipped properly and will be lead by officers who patently aren't much better prepared than they are!;
            - the icing of the cake? Now they're being told that it's a criminal offense to fail to advance when ordered, retreat or give ground (hell I believe it's now even a 'crime' to get captured!) and all while the families they left behind don't get the pay and support they've been promised.

            These new formations will be Phyops team wet dream in terms of combat 'messaging'. If I was were the Ukrainians I'd be creating every opportunity I could for mass defections. As I said I can't think of the last time a 'modern' western army with a long history of military success made itself so vulnerable to psychological warfare attacks.
            Mmmmm not quite. That works only if you have disproportional advantage between sides. If the narrative is that life in Russia under Putin is doomed and that life in the West is prosperous, yeah the psyops have something to work with. But that will change this winter, with the blackouts and lack of heat as well as with shortages of food and other goods. Once the internet dies due to power grid failures and when social upheaval starts in the west, the psyops will lose the leverage. Whom would endure longer? A Russian young man from the Russian country side whom lived in poverty his whole life and is no stranger to a hard times or woke hipster in the west whom is drinking gluten free soy milk while pumping virtue signaling quotes from his warm apartment on a high bandwidth internet. The rioting in the West will be colossal.
            On some higher plane, Ukraine will be a world's purgatory, for both West and Russia. Mistakes and delusions always have a high price. I mean, just look at us and how we paid almost century and a half of false narratives and lies.
            Last edited by Versus; 24 Sep 22,, 07:42.

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            • Originally posted by astralis View Post
              I highly doubt “relief” is what they would feel. Even if those guys were trained, and both of us know that meat grinder troops MIGHT get just enough for weapon familiarity…when was the last time those Colonels and above -trained- to operate at battle group let alone division level?
              You're talking about the 2ndary reserves. You've got a bunch of Capts to full Generals in those who never trained with the BTGs.

              Originally posted by astralis View Post
              If the question is about maximizing chance of survival vs accomplishment of objective, then “running away” or “surrender” are also quite viable choices, as the Russians demonstrated two weeks ago.
              And get dumped into Penal Battalions.
              Chimo

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Versus View Post

                Mmmmm not quite. That works only if you have disproportional advantage between sides. If the narrative is that life in Russia under Putin is doomed and that life in the West is prosperous, yeah the psyops have something to work with. But that will change this winter, with the blackouts and lack of heat as well as with shortages of food and other goods. Once the internet dies due to power grid failures and when social upheaval starts in the west, the psyops will lose the leverage. Whom would endure longer? A Russian young man from the Russian country side whom lived in poverty his whole life and is no stranger to a hard times or woke hipster in the west whom is drinking gluten free soy milk while pumping virtue signaling quotes from his warm apartment on a high bandwidth internet. The rioting in the West will be colossal.
                On some higher plane, Ukraine will be a world's purgatory, for both West and Russia. Mistakes and delusions always have a high price. I mean, just look at us and how we paid almost century and a half of false narratives and lies.
                I disagree. Putin's Russia isn't the rural poor, the classic Russian 'peasant' and it certainly isn't the ethnic minorities that make up most of the population east of the Urals, it hasn't been for decades. 'Putin's Russia' consists of Moscow, St Petersberg and the surrounding districts. They and they alone matter because that's where his support base is and that's who he has to keep happy if he wishes to stay in power. The vast majority of the conscript soldiers are being drafted from those poorer areas and those ignored ethnicities and reports are already coming in of riots and protests across Russia as a result. They are angry, disaffected and bitter at being asked to carry the can - yet again, while they see other Russians in Moscow etc getting a free pass. IMO they will be very open to phyop campaigns.
                Last edited by Monash; 24 Sep 22,, 14:59.
                If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                Comment


                • There are a lot of intelligent experts commenting here, often deliciously so (wrong adjective?), but if one could render down a few concepts, I will go out on a limb and say that we're all basically "watching what will happen on TV" without any faith that what we predicted will be what we assumed would happen.

                  Let's face the facts: Has anything remotely equivalent happened in anyone's lifetime, or grandfather's lifetime in foreign policy? Russia has instituted a form of a military draft for the first time since 1945. Medvedev has stated that Russia is legally allowed to nuke if Russian territory is compromised -- the key concept is if the Donbass and Crimea are Russia -- are they? I don't think so, but how about Crimea?

                  Alice in Wonderland is here. Nobody knows what will happen. I'm of the opinion that's it's worth the risk. F Putin. Take the chance now and confront that man and create a Ukrainian victory, even if it's not absolute. The alternative seems to be the willing inauguration of a dystopian nightmare of a world order.

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                  • Even for people with prior mil experience, isn't 30 days of training a bit short, especially in the absence of prior refresher training?
                    All those who are merciful with the cruel will come to be cruel to the merciful.
                    -Talmud Kohelet Rabbah, 7:16.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Monash View Post

                      I disagree. Putin's Russia, isn't the rural poor, the classic Prussian 'peasant' and it certainly isn't the ethnic minorities that make up most of the population east of the Urals, it hasn't been for decades. 'Putin's Russia' consists of Moscow, St Petersberg and the surrounding districts. They and they alone matter because that's where his support base is and that's who he has to keep happy if he wishes to stay in power. The vast majority of the conscript soldiers are being drafted from those poorer areas and those ignored ethnicities and reports are already coming in of riots and protests across Russia as a result. They are angry, disaffected and bitter at being asked to carry the can - yet again, while they see other Russians in Moscow etc get a free pass. IMO they will be very open to phyop campaigns.
                      In that case, Putin' Russia is here and they are driving our rental prices by five fold. What you said is exactly the purge that is the main goal of this whole ordeal. Ukraine is just a catalyst.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
                        There are a lot of intelligent experts commenting here, often deliciously so (wrong adjective?), but if one could render down a few concepts, I will go out on a limb and say that we're all basically "watching what will happen on TV" without any faith that what we predicted will be what we assumed would happen.

                        Let's face the facts: Has anything remotely equivalent happened in anyone's lifetime, or grandfather's lifetime in foreign policy? Russia has instituted a form of a military draft for the first time since 1945. Medvedev has stated that Russia is legally allowed to nuke if Russian territory is compromised -- the key concept is if the Donbass and Crimea are Russia -- are they? I don't think so, but how about Crimea?

                        Alice in Wonderland is here. Nobody knows what will happen. I'm of the opinion that's it's worth the risk. F Putin. Take the chance now and confront that man and create a Ukrainian victory, even if it's not absolute. The alternative seems to be the willing inauguration of a dystopian nightmare of a world order.
                        Most likely it will go something like this. The Oblast's declare that they want to join Russia and Russia accepts it, mission accomplished and the "special operation" is over. Those 300000 are than deployed there to secure territory with a warning that any attack on those territories will be replied with a mushroom cloud. The hostilities end.

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                        • Deputy minister of defense Dmitry Bulgakov sent retired "due to new assignment". He curated logistics and storage.

                          Mikhail Mizintsev is assigned in his stead
                          We're so bad, we're even bad at it

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Versus View Post
                            Mmmmm not quite. That works only if you have disproportional advantage between sides. If the narrative is that life in Russia under Putin is doomed and that life in the West is prosperous, yeah the psyops have something to work with. But that will change this winter, with the blackouts and lack of heat as well as with shortages of food and other goods. Once the internet dies due to power grid failures and when social upheaval starts in the west, the psyops will lose the leverage. Whom would endure longer? A Russian young man from the Russian country side whom lived in poverty his whole life and is no stranger to a hard times or woke hipster in the west whom is drinking gluten free soy milk while pumping virtue signaling quotes from his warm apartment on a high bandwidth internet. The rioting in the West will be colossal.
                            There's not going to be any blackouts or food shortages in the West this year. Euros will need some subsidy programs to help with their household energy spend this winter, that's all.

                            Originally posted by Versus View Post

                            Most likely it will go something like this. The Oblast's declare that they want to join Russia and Russia accepts it, mission accomplished and the "special operation" is over. Those 300000 are than deployed there to secure territory with a warning that any attack on those territories will be replied with a mushroom cloud. The hostilities end.
                            It's quite clear the Ukrainians are already utterly undeterred by nuclear threats. I think on the contrary, if Russia declares "annexation", they'll be in the humiliating position of being unable to dislodge the Ukrainians from "their" new territories and unable to stop them from taking yet more.

                            "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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                            • Lyman encirclement in progress.

                              https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories...de641cf64bd375
                              Attached Files
                              "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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                              • New Perun video drop.

                                "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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