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2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

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  • Let me rephrase, whether true or not, Russia does give the impression she can replace her losses. Russia lost this war the moment she crossed the border. Her initial strategic goals are all denied and currently, it would seem that pre-24 Feb borders is a real possibility.

    However, it's also true that Russia has generated 30K men in the new 3AC. With a month's training, I can confidently say their sole purpose is to eat up Ukrainian men and machines. With a 6 month tour, I can also say that their chances of seeing their homes again are a little worst than dog shit, which puts more moeny into WAGNER GROUP's pockets. Now, they're generating a 4AC.

    Given the lack of panic about the Kharkov Offensive on the Russian side, it's becoming obvious that the Russians sole strategic aim now is to make a Ukrainian victory as Pyrrhic as they can. And they don't care how many mercs it takes to do so. Do note I said mercs. The WAGNER GROUP is becoming the main recruiter for this war and they don't answer to the Russian Army.
    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 21 Sep 22,, 05:10.
    Chimo

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    • "...Russian sources confirmed the formation of the 3rd Army Corps on August 5. Russian milblogger and military correspondent Sasha Kots announced recruitment for the “Samara” volunteer battalion in Samara Oblast and noted that the battalion will join the 3rd Army Corps of the Russian Armed Forces.[28] The battalion is recruiting men between the ages of 18 and 50 who have completed at least middle or high school education, without required prior military experience.[29] ISW has previously reported that Ukrainian officials believed that Russian forces were forming a 15,500-person-strong 3rd Army Corps within the Western Military District (WMD) based out of Mulino, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, but did not have official confirmation of its formation from Russian sources.[30] Sasha Kots’ announcement also indicates that the Kremlin is likely planning to compose the 3rd Army Corps at least in part from volunteer battalions." Aug. 5, 2022 ISW

      "...TASK AND PURPOSE estimate 3AC to be 30K strong..."

      Only if you average his actual comment, "...with an estimated strength of between 15 and 60,000 personnel..." see 19:13 Task & Purpose
      He says later "34,000 troops had enlisted...and that's no small amount..."

      He's incorrect. His info there is pulled from the Moscow Times...inaccurately-

      "...If each Russian region generates a battalion of about 400 men, that could mean as many as 34,000 more fighters heading to the frontlines in Ukraine..." 'Explosive Cocktail: Russian Regions Recruiting Units For Ukraine War- Moscow Times July 29, 2022

      As we've found subsequently, most of those Federal Subjects abjectly failed in their recruitment efforts. From ISW Aug. 23, 2022-

      "...Russian federal subjects are forming specialized military units with likely volunteers without prior military experience. The Republic of Udmurt claimed to have recruited seven volunteers who are currently undergoing training in Tolyatti for the “Italmas” SPETSNAZ unit.[56] Local military recruitment centers in Udmurt announced the recruitment for the ”Italmas” unit on July 23 and did not specify previous military experience as a requirement.[57] There was no information about the ”Italmas” unit prior to this July 23 announcement, suggesting that it is a new volunteer unit. Some local outlets claimed that the unit is recruiting reservists, while others noted that anyone interested in signing a military contract with the unit may do so at a local military recruitment center.[58] The recruitment of only seven volunteers since late July further confirms that Russian federal subjects continue to face challenges in recruiting the planned number of volunteers. Tatarstan local outlets also reported that 21 recruits are undergoing combat coordination activities in Orenburg Oblast with the ”Alga” and ”Timer” volunteer battalions, despite previously claiming to have recruited over 300 volunteers as of June 23."

      Just "any ol' guy" won't cut it in this war and, in fact, would be actively counter-productive to successful operations. Yet Russia not only can't recruit without a declaration of war and full, unfettered mobilization, they also couldn't effectively train all those mobilized men anytime soon. Not possible with a training base that's been looted of instructors and equipment and lacking the means to replace both.

      Then, how are they going to be trained? Will they come at Ukraine "...in the same old way..."? Ukraine has learned better. Right now, they are better. From the Privates to the Generals. All you have to see are the differences between bivouacs. The Russians live like pigs...over and over again. Definitely not a one-time thingy. Their army is bad and needs to learn again how to be soldiers, officers and leaders.

      You said you thought the Ukrainians have one more push in them this year. I think so too. It'll be, though, in addition to continuing operations in Donetsk/Luhansk and Kherson. Done at the right time and place and it could tip the apple-cart altogether.
      Last edited by S2; 21 Sep 22,, 06:29.
      "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
      "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

      Comment


      • I stand corrected on the 3AC numbers but the basis of their existence has not changed. That they're WAGNER GROUP's recruits from prisons, lured with freedom and money ($5K per month), do 1 month training, and then a 6 month tour with the provision that any deserter will be shot. You do recall how very few leaves the WWII Penal Battalions and those who do volunteers to go back to their old units to finish the war. This essentially means no 3AC member would ever reach their 6 month freedom, at least not alive. So, what good are these men except to commit the Ukrainians to meat grinders?

        Again, there is zero panic on the loss of the Kharkov Oblast; not even rushing troops forward to shore up the defences. Putin is not interested in a professional army. He sidelined them in favour of the WAGNER GROUP whom you also noted are nothing more than pig meat. This is not a professional army. This is a mercenary army with all that it implies. This army is not interested in victory. This army is interested in rape and pillage. As such, the only thing that they're good for is wasting Ukrainian ammo and forcing the Ukrainians to come after them into meat grinders.

        Putin is no longer interested in victory. He's interested in bleeding the Ukrainians white. If he was interested in victory, he would have declared war and mass mobilization. It is not militarily efficent to let WAGNER GROUP orgainze the 3AC.

        The Russian Army very well indeed need to learn how to be soldiers, officers, and leaders again ... but not in my life time. I don't have enough years left. If I'm lucky, I will see a Man on Mars but not a new Russian Army. If you want to see a real Russian Army, look to the Chinese.
        Chimo

        Comment


        • "...the only thing that they're good for is wasting Ukrainian ammo and forcing the Ukrainians to come after them into meat grinders.

          Putin is no longer interested in victory. He's interested in bleeding the Ukrainians white."


          Then he missed his window of opportunity when he called the "operational pause" following Lyschansk/Severodonetsk at the end of June. Ukraine was clearly hard-pressed, dogged but back on their heels and hurting quite a bit. Nothing about Ukrainian operations since early July have suggested particularly hard casualties on their part. Including, particularly both the Kherson and Kharkiv offensives. Meanwhile, unlike Russia, they DID immediately declare full mobilization and have attained a force of 700,000 under uniform and arms across the country...from a not inconsiderable population of 44,000,000. Few of those who fled were military-aged males and there are a lot of 16-18 year old teens who are still awaiting service induction...while getting along with their lives as best those youngsters can...

          ...knowing their time is rapidly coming. Understanding fully, though, why it must be. They'll be trained correctly. NATO standards. Brits and others are seeing to this now from training establishments that haven't been at all haphazardly raped and gutted to find bodies for a pointless conflict.

          Putin may be trying, though, referendums to conjure some rationale for a domestic audience why full mobilization is required-Ukrainian invasion of Russian lands. Weak sauce for the west but we're not the target of his B.S. It also circumvents Russian law about deployment of conscripts into combat zones outside the national borders. That lil' ploy, however, is pointless given that he's already dragged a bunch of dim-wit conscripts across the border on Feb. 24.

          1.) There's a real chance full mobilization creates a domestic shit-storm of unpredictable but nasty outcomes and, 2.) there's no training base to accommodate the care, clothing, arming and training of all the disparate skill-sets and huge influx of recruits demanded from a major military expansion. It'd be a goat-screw if Russia tried to achieve the minimal levels of combat proficient enlisted troops. It'd take a year, assuming a sound training base, to train troops to the level of competency necessary to avoid embarassing deaths at the hands of Ukrainians eager (and well-practiced by this point) to kill them. Not sure where all those capable mid-senior NCOs and company-grade officers would come from since NCOs of worth are a near-forgotten W.W. II memory and any junior officer commissioned in this army's ethos isn't worth a shit as a leader.

          Or so it would seem. Russia is in a very fcuked-up position that's getting worse daily. Too cool that they're building enduring bridges of friendship with their newest bestest buddies, DPRK, PRC and Iran. If known by the friends you keep...
          "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
          "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

          Comment


          • Multiple news websites are reporting that Putin has declared a 'partial' mobilization just a couple of hours ago (whatever the hell that means). Presumably any male 18-50 not living in Moscow and St Petersberg is now fair game! This move almost certainly amounts to a tacit recognition that recruitment efforts to date are not producing enough manpower to replace losses. It also acts as partial response to various Russian ultra nationalists who have criticized the government (not Putin) for not doing enough to win the 'not' war.

            Laws have apparently also been passed which make it a serious crime for Russian solders to 'retreat' or desert in the face of enemy attack. Makes me wonder what happens to senior Russian commanders who order retreats based on military necessity. Presumably they'll be OK as long as the Kremlin approves their request to do so in advance. (Hands up all those who want to be senior Russian officers at the moment.) Colonel? Feel like joining up for one last 'show' . Your experience would be an asset.
            Last edited by Monash; 21 Sep 22,, 09:15.
            If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Monash View Post
              Multiple news websites are reporting that Putin has declared a 'partial' mobilization just a couple of hours ago (whatever the hell that means).
              Partial mobilization in this instance means they intend to draft reserves back into active duty on a non-voluntary basis.

              Generally, there's two types of reservists in Russia - those who sign a contract to be active reservists after their active duty period has ended, and the inactive reserve, comprised of contract soldiers/conscripts who did not sign such a contract.
              Last edited by Ironduke; 21 Sep 22,, 11:41.
              "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Monash View Post
                (Hands up all those who want to be senior Russian officers at the moment.) Colonel? Feel like joining up for one last 'show' . Your experience would be an asset.
                Stalin himself couldn't unfuck this clusterfuck.

                Chimo

                Comment


                • Spoke with a Russian friend who did not have to do conscript service, but two of his neighbors did. Apparently they both got visited at work today by enlistment officers, and will be shipping out for training tomorrow for active duty.
                  "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
                    Spoke with a Russian friend who did not have to do conscript service, but two of his neighbors did. Apparently they both got visited at work today by enlistment officers, and will be shipping out for training tomorrow for active duty.
                    That means they're going or have been told to go? Because well, theres a difference. That said how easy will it be for Russia to retrain and equip 300, 000 conscripts and how long will it take?

                    PS is your friend Moscow based? Because if so that means word will spread very quickly.
                    If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Monash View Post

                      That means they're going or have been told to go? Because well, theres a difference. That said how easy will it be for Russia to retrain and equip 300, 000 conscripts and how long will it take?

                      PS is your friend Moscow based? Because if so that means word will spread very quickly.
                      They have been compelled to go, leaving tomorrow, no choice from what I was told.

                      Kostroma.
                      "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Monash View Post
                        That means they're going or have been told to go? Because well, theres a difference. That said how easy will it be for Russia to retrain and equip 300, 000 conscripts and how long will it take?
                        Preferably 6 months but more than likely 30 days. That's what the mercs are getting. At 300K, they're going to be foot infantry. Railwayed to the border and march in by foot.

                        Chimo

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Monash View Post
                          That said how easy will it be for Russia to retrain and equip 300, 000 conscripts and how long will it take?
                          Bingo. They can "retrain" or at least tell their conscripts "You're retrained, congratulations", but can they adequately equip them? How much gear intended for mobilization has been sold out the back door of the supply depots or fallen off the truck before it even got there? Or never actually been manufactured in the first place?

                          So now the Kremlin sends hundreds of thousands of un- or under-equipped reservists marching into the teeth of Ukrainian firepower and word of this gets back home to the families...either in the form of phone calls and Telegram posts or death notices.

                          Yeah, the Colonel called it: "Stalin himself couldn't unfuck this clusterfuck."

                          Now's a good time to re-watch Perun's superb May 29th video on corruption

                          “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                          Comment


                          • Putin orders partial military call-up, risking protests

                            KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a partial mobilization of reservists Wednesday, taking a risky and deeply unpopular step that follows humiliating setbacks for his troops nearly seven months after invading Ukraine.

                            The first call-up in Russia since World War II is sure to further fuel tensions with the Western backers of Ukraine, who derided the move as an act of weakness and desperation. The move also sent Russians scrambling to buy plane tickets out of the country and reportedly sparked some demonstrations.

                            The Kremlin has struggled to replenish its troops in Ukraine, reaching out for volunteers to serve in battalions. There even have been reports of widespread recruitment in prisons.

                            In his seven-minute televised address to the nation, Putin also warned the West he isn't bluffing over using everything at his disposal to protect Russia — an apparent reference to his nuclear arsenal. He has previously told the West not to back Russia against the wall and has rebuked NATO countries for supplying weapons to Ukraine.

                            The total number of reservists to be called up could be as high as 300,000, officials said. However, the decree offered few details, raising suspicions among analysts and Kremlin critics that the draft could be broaden out at any moment. Notably, one clause was kept secret.

                            Even a partial mobilization is likely to increase dismay or sow doubt among Russians about the war. Shortly after Putin’s address, Russian media reported a sharp spike in demand for plane tickets abroad amid an apparent scramble to leave despite exorbitant prices.

                            The Vesna opposition movement called for nationwide protests.

                            “Thousands of Russian men -- our fathers, brothers and husbands -- will be thrown into the meat grinder of the war. What will they be dying for? What will mothers and children be crying for?” the group said.

                            It was unclear how many would protest, given Russia’s harsh laws against criticizing the military and the invasion of Ukraine. Avtozak, a Russian group that monitors protests, reported demonstrations attracting dozens of people in cities, including the Siberian cities of Ulan-Ude and Tomsk, and Khabarovsk in the Far East, with some arrests.

                            Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, asked what had changed since he and others previously said no mobilization was planned, said Russia is effectively fighting against NATO because the alliance’s members have been supplying weapons to Kyiv.

                            The partial mobilization order came a day after Russian-controlled regions in eastern and southern Ukraine announced plans to hold votes on becoming integral parts of Russia — a move that could eventually allow Moscow to escalate the war on legal grounds. The referendums will start Friday in the Luhansk, Kherson and partly Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions.

                            The balloting is all but certain to go Moscow’s way. Foreign leaders have described the votes as illegitimate and nonbinding. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said they were a “sham” and “noise” to distract public attention.

                            Putin’s speech is “definitely a sign that he’s struggling, and we know that,” U.S. national security council spokesperson John Kirby said.

                            Russia has suffered tens of thousands of casualties, has command and control issues, terrible troop morale, desertion problems and is “forcing the wounded back (into) the fight,” Kirby said on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”

                            Added White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on MSNBC: "It’s all because Russia is losing ground on the battlefield.”

                            Only those with relevant combat and service experience will be mobilized, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said. He added about 25 million people fit this criteria but only around 1% of them will be mobilized.

                            Another key clause in the decree prevents most professional soldiers from terminating their contracts and leaving service until the partial mobilization is no longer in place.

                            Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been the target of broad international criticism at the U.N. General Assembly that has kept up intense diplomatic pressure on Moscow. Zelenskky is due to speak to the gathering in a prerecorded address later Wednesday. Putin is not attending.

                            Putin's gambit has a strong element of risk: It could backfire by making the war unpopular at home and hurting his own standing. It also concedes Russia's underlying military shortcomings.

                            A Ukraine counteroffensive this month has seized the military initiative from Russia, as well as capturing large areas in Ukraine that the Russians once held. Its speed saw Russian troops abandon armored vehicles and other weapons as they retreated.

                            A spokesman for Zelenskyy called the mobilization a “big tragedy” for the Russian people.

                            In a statement to The Associated Press, Sergii Nikiforov said conscripts sent to Ukraine would face a similar fate as ill-prepared Russian forces who were repelled in an attack on Kyiv in the first days of the war.

                            “This is a recognition of the incapacity of the Russian professional army, which has failed in all its tasks,” Nikiforov said.

                            The Russian mobilization is unlikely to produce any consequences on the battlefield for months because of a lack of training facilities and equipment.

                            British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace described Putin’s move as “an admission that his invasion is failing.”

                            Russian political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin said Putin’s announcement smacked of “an act of desperation.” He predicted that Russians will resist the mobilization through “passive sabotage.”

                            “People will evade this mobilization in every possible way, bribe their way out of this mobilization, leave the country,” Oreshkin told the AP.

                            The announcement will be unpopular, he said, describing it as “a huge personal blow to Russian citizens, who until recently (took part in the hostilities) with pleasure, sitting on their couches, (watching) TV. And now the war has come into their home.”

                            The war in Ukraine, which has killed thousands of people, has driven up food prices worldwide and caused energy costs to soar. It has also brought fears of a potential nuclear catastrophe at Europe’s largest nuclear plant in Ukraine’s now Russia-occupied southeast. Investigations are also underway into possible war crimes atrocities committed by Moscow's forces.

                            In his address, which was far shorter than previous speeches about the Ukraine war, Putin accused the West of engaging in “nuclear blackmail” and noted “statements of some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO states about the possibility of using nuclear weapons of mass destruction against Russia.”

                            He didn't elaborate.

                            “To those who allow themselves such statements regarding Russia, I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction ... and when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, to protect Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal,” Putin said, adding: “It’s not a bluff.”

                            Putin said he has already signed the decree for partial mobilization, which starts immediately, and stressed its limited scale.

                            “We are talking about partial mobilization, that is, only citizens who are currently in the reserve will be subject to conscription, and above all, those who served in the armed forces who have a certain military specialty and relevant experience,” Putin said.

                            Shoigu said 5,937 Russian soldiers have died in the conflict, far lower than Western estimates of tens of thousands.

                            ___
                            “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                            Comment


                            • The old Logistician and Trainer in me has to wonder...

                              1. What kind of physical shape these reservists will be. The average Russian lifestyle isn't exactly healthy.30 days will make a dent but it won't get them in Ready Soldier shape. There are going to be a metric fvck ton of injuries to those folks just from training...which slows down their other training.

                              2. I am not concerned about small arms for these Soldiers...but what other gear can they pull out of storage. I think we were reading in early to mid Summer the systems in reserve are BMP-1/BTR-60/70/ early T-64 mods or T-62s. There aren't any 1S19's to go around.

                              3. 30 days may be enough to get reservists up to snuff and sharpen basic weapons qualification. But what about medics? Forward Controllers? Combat engineers? And the new 4th AC will have zero collective training...i.e. combined arms maneuver training. Even dug in Infantry requires a LOT of unit training to hold a position. Not to say there won't be individual units that perform okay.

                              4. One other way to use these newly mobilized is to have them backfill what we call the industrial fixed base...the training and installation troops. But as has been pointed out, they have already been eating that seed corn.

                              Meanwhile the Ukrainians get more & more modernized. Wouldn't be surprised to seeing a couple of battalions of M1A1s getting yanked out of mothballs from Sierra Army Depot. Plenty of time to cover new equipment training.

                              I am getting the popcorn started so I can sit back and watch.
                              “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                              Mark Twain

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by TopHatter;n1592477[/quote

                                Shoigu said 5,937 Russian soldiers have died in the conflict, far lower than Western estimates of tens of thousands.

                                ___
                                Yeah, that guy again the Russian Defense Minister. One, I don't believe a word he says nor the Russians for that matter. Lying and inflating has always been a modus operandi of everything Russian. One has to wonder how much he has taken from the budget?

                                The 300,000 sounds like Russian inflation to me and for all we know could be only 30,000. Forget the 4AC. Their training base has been stripped so are reservists going to be training other reservists? While they can no doubt give them small arms can they even give them a decent uniform and boots. The muddy season is coming followed by winter. Forget the big stuff as what is left is probably close to junk status. I don't know what they think 30 days will get them? They need Eagle Scouts and sounds more like they will send out Cub Scouts and a few Webelos making things easier on the Ukrainians. These guys just maybe the meat that the Ukrainians grind up. Can the Russians spell coordinate? Well we already know the answer to that. However, they are good at saying "we threaten you..." and so why are you not shaking...

                                Is there enough popcorn?

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