2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Mithridates]

Powerlineblog mentions a Twitter thread that might be Ukrainian disinformation, but possibly a little disconcerting for Russian forces in Ukraine, if true:

THREAD 1/7 Intel from a Ukrainian officer about a meeting in Putin’s lair in Urals. Oligarchs convened there so no one would flee. Putin is furious, he thought that the whole war would be easy and everything would be done in 1-4 days.

Russians didn’t have a tactical plan. The war costs about $20 bln/day. There are rockets for 3-4 days at most, they use them sparingly. They lack weapons, the Tula and 2 Rotenberg plants can’t physically fulfil the orders for weapons. Rifles and ammo are the most they can do.

The next Russian weapons can be produced in 3-4 months – if even that. They have no raw materials. What was previously supplied mainly from Slovenia, Finland and Germany is now cut off.

If Ukraine manages to hold the Russians off for 10 days, then the Russians will have to enter negotiations. Because they have no money, weapons, or resources. Nevertheless, they are indifferent about the sanctions.

Alpha Spec Ops have been near Kyiv since the 18th February. The goal was to take Kyiv and instal a puppet regime. They are preparing provocations against innocent civilians – women and children – to sow panic. This is their trump card.

Russia’s whole plan relies on panic – that the civilians and armed forces surrender and Zelensky flees. They expect Kharkiv to surrender first so the other cities would follow suit to avoid bloodshed. The Russians are in shock of the fierce resistance they have encountered.

The Ukrainians must avoid panic! The missile strikes are for intimidation, the Russians fire them at random to “accidentally” hit residential buildings to make the attack look larger than it really is. Ukraine must stay strong and we must provide assistance!

Spread this information so the world would realise how important it is to assist Ukraine right now and without hesitation! It is difficult for Russia, but it is difficult for Ukraine as well if the West does not provide meaningul support! @EPPGroup@MFAestonia @MoD_Estonia

[zraver]

Exactly. Otherwise winning could end up everyone losing even bigger. And "winning" starts to introduce very large tail risks...

What could that be ??? Russia goes home, Ukraine agrees no nato and staying neutral

Who knows perhaps that alone sinks Putin long term (Have cake and eat it scenario)

Time for India and China (both abstained) to show a united front and put forth an acceptable peace plan. Maybe centered on Russia buying Crimea and the two breakaway regions on one side and really cheap gas long term on the other. No NATO but maybe limited EU partnership.

[Officer of Engineers]

(1) Sir, if we break that down to estimate wounded, deserters and captured, that is between 2-4% of the assault force given that the US says Putin sent in 1/3rd of the troops massed on the border. Of course it wont be evenly spread. Some units like the pars at the airport are shot out, others, maybe most haven't lost anyone. Those paras took losses no western unit has taken since Korea.

(2) I think the speed might be a tad misleading. Russian AFV's have the range to make that trip and fight on a single tank of fuel. There was no real need to have a massive logistical tail like the US did in Iraq.

(3) Can Russia sustain the effort? The easy part is done. Now its the house to house butchers bill. Conscript infantry did not do so well in Grozny (99-00) with about 20% casualty rates. Kyiv is a much bigger nut to chew on and the UA and militias are going to be better armed. That is going to translate into a lot of pissed off war mothers back in Russia. Russia can hide the bodies, but not the amputees. Putin has already been backfooted on the propaganda front with all the anti-war protests.

Russian thrusts against Kharkiv and JFO have bogged down. initial shock and awe attempts on Kyiv were wrecked.

Russian logistics are going to hell; their short range ballistic missile stockpile is rapidly running short.

Russian armor is getting absolutely plastered and Spetznatz have been overwhelmed repeatedly.

450 Russian dead is old information (assessment published morning of 25th based on 1st day of fighting); based on open-source the body count by now is minimum 1K and probably considerably higher given the downing of the Il-76s.

I don't know about "impressive, very impressive". Ukrainian performance has been significantly better than most people predicted and Russian performance rather worse. not saying that Ukraine is gonna win this -- things are at a knife-edge -- but they're giving the Russians a hell of a run for their money, and if they can hold on for a few more days, things get rapidly worse for Putin.

You two are saying the exact same kind of things I've heard about the Iraq Invasion. I didn't believe then. I don't believe it now. Nothing I've seen indicates the Russians are being stopped. The Operational Planning has been top notched and when faced with a set back, they've got contingencies up the ying-yang. For a 72 hour war, the Ukrainians have been on their back leg and could not even exploit any tactical gain they achieved while the Russians over-came their set backs.

The whole point about repelling the Russian attack at Anotov Airport is to deny the Russians an air bridge. Who holds the airport now? Yes, they blew holes in the runways but is anybody killing Russian engineers over there? Hooray, the Russians are bogged down at Kharkiv and JFO. Well, so were the Brits at Basra. What did the Brits do at Basra? They fixed it in place and made it irrevelent and that's only because we were nice. During WWII, we would have flattened Basra with artillery and moved on, Kharkiv and JFO are fixed in place. Neither could relieve Kiev.

The point when you see logistics starting to fail is when you see an operational pause. I've yet to see a Russian operational pause. We had an operational pause on our way to Baghdad.

The only thing I can say positive about the Ukrainians is that they are furocious. I expect them to die-in-place and they have proven me right but they need to take the offensive to have any chance of victory. The Russians will take Kiev. They might abandon it afterwards buy they will take the city. The Ukrainians need to hit Russian LOCs now. They need to hit hard, hit fast, and keep on hitting to have any chance of winning at Kiev. I don't see it right now.

The news about Putin throwing a tantrum is bullshit. This is the man's 4th war as wartime leader (2nd Chechenya, Georgia, 1st and 2nd Ukraine) and his 6th war (Soviet-Afghanistan and 1st Chechnya). He's a trained Soviet military officer and a spymaster not above using radiation poisoning in a NATO country. Such a man do not do temper tantrums.

And since when are the Russians casualty adverse? When did their losses cripple their operational plans?

And lastly, the Ukrainians are fighting tooth and nail against only 35% of the Russian massed force. The elephant has yet to come over the hill.

Not saying the Ukrainians are going to win this is just horse puckey. This is war. Winning is the only thing that matters. Anything else is just a poor excuse for a consolation prize.

It is perfectly fine to see the trees but don't ignore the forest.

[astralis]

bottom-line: the initial Russian attack has been thrown back. none of the major cities have fallen and they haven't even achieved air superiority, let alone air dominance.

strategically, this is obvious: if the Russians were doing well, they'd trumpet it to the skies. even their internal propaganda has gone silent.

so they are moving to plan B.

attempts to take Kharkiv have failed; now that line of attack has been redirected to Kyiv. Kyiv thrust is getting reinforced.

the thrust to Odessa has been redirected towards Zaporozhe, probably to outflank JFO.

in short, consolidating the 4 separate thrusts. from open-source, majority of the amassed Russian force is now in Ukraine.

[Officer of Engineers]

bottom-line: the initial Russian attack has been thrown back. none of the major cities have fallen and they haven't even achieved air superiority, let alone air dominance.

In 72 hours? You've got to be shitting me! No General worth his salt would plan such an outcome so early or rely on such an outcome. We did not plan on air superiority or even air domainance in Kuwait, Kosovo, and Iraq in 1 day. I seriously think you over-read their intent.

strategically, this is obvious: if the Russians were doing well, they'd trumpet it to the skies. even their internal propaganda has gone silent.

Since when? They were damned quiet during Chechnya and there was zero peep about Russian victories in the 1st Ukraine War and no one was dancing about pro-Russian successes then either.

so they are moving to plan B.

attempts to take Kharkiv have failed; now that line of attack has been redirected to Kyiv. Kyiv thrust is getting reinforced.

the thrust to Odessa has been redirected towards Zaporozhe, probably to outflank JFO.

in short, consolidating the 4 separate thrusts. from open-source, majority of the amassed Russian force is now in Ukraine.

In a 72 hour period? Even we ain't that good to detrmine an objective ain't achievable and then to switch to another one before regrouping. If anything, I regroup for a 2nd try before I depart for Kiev. The Russians ain't combat ineffective by any means.

I seriously think you over-estimated their operational intent within such a short time span.

[Parihaka]

Major General Mick Ryan



3h • 24 tweets • 7 min read Bookmark Save as PDF My Authors




Three days since the invasion began. In the past 24 hours, we have seen Russian advances in the north, south and east. Ground gained in the north has been particularly costly for Russian forces. My 3rd set of observations, noting the ongoing abundance of ambiguity. 1/24
2/24 Superb reporting continues from many sources on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This includes @KofmanMichael @maxseddon @IAPonomarenko @RALee85 @shashj @DanLamothe @ikhurshudyan @McFaul @DefenceHQ @TheStudyofWar among many others.

3/24 The Russian campaign so far has been unimaginative and plodding. They are clearly seeking a low-cost victory, partly because they know they need to govern Ukraine if they are successful.
4/24 Russian airborne thrusts have demonstrated the inherent limitations of such operations. As @kofman has noted, these deep operations by light forces also don’t appear to be driven by sensible operational needs.
5/24 And the fact that the Russians, with an air force that is vastly bigger and more capable, did not achieve air superiority before the invasion is another telling factor in either Russian arrogance - or their lack of integration in the joint force.
6/24 At the same time, the Russian doctrinal preference for disrupting, degrading, or destroying adversary command and control through artillery, missile strikes, air strikes, cyber/electronic warfare, and ground combat does not appear to be working (yet).
7/24 There has been some online discussion, from social media but also from @DefenceHQ about Russian logistical problems. The reality is that in any large-scale advance by land forces, logistics is ALWAYS an issue.
8/24 We train our combat forces to be aggressive in the advance and to exploit opportunities where they find them. Sometimes this means they outrun the logistic support of even the best military organisations.
9/24 This will be part of why we are seeing armoured vehicles out of fuel, like this exchange.

10/24 Back to assumptions of a lightning war by the Russians - another factor in logistics might be that the Russians weighted the invasion force in favour of combat units in the hope of overwhelming and overawing the Ukrainians quickly. Hope is a bad planning assumption!
11/24 We should also not discount that the Russian forces are just not up to this task without resort to more traditional methods of methodical, highly destructive warfare. They may have to eschew their recent theoretical developments in warfare to be successful.
12/24 With the Russians advancing slowly on multiple fronts, their main effort seems to be the capture of Kyiv. Watch for second echelon forces, heavier artillery, air attacks, more infiltration attempts, cyber, influence & EW activities in support of this.
13/24 Their Ukrainian opponents have clearly planned and wargamed their overall defensive scheme of maneuver over many years. It appears to be methodical, disciplined with a clear sense of what is important to defend, and what is not.
14/24 Ukrainian leadership so far has been impressive. The President has provided a central, unifying presence for his people. He appears tired but functioning well, and he is maintaining a dialog with his people and the outside world.
15/24 In the coming days, the Ukrainian President however will need to make some very hard decisions on the defence of Kyiv, which is likely to be a very destructive and bloody urban fight. He will also need to decide on staying or going.

16/24 Neither are simple or easy decisions, and both will have a significant impact on the war and its outcome. And, potentially, any subsequent insurgency.
17/24 Military leadership in the Ukrainian forces so far has also stood the ultimate test of military leaders – combat. This has been in evidence from their senior leadership deploying military forces & keeping their people informed, to their tactical operations.
18/24 The Ukrainians have been masters in the use of strategic communications to provide transparency for the world about the Russian invasion. They have also provided inspiring stories, such as this heroic sapper, that provides the iron in the spine of soldiers & civilians.
19/24 Good leadership has always been a defining feature of successful combat forces. With their military leaders, the Ukrainians seem to have managed to sustain a good balance of what Andrew Gordon in ‘Rules of the Game’ called ‘ratcatchers’ and ‘regulators’.
20/24 The ratcatchers are the warfighters and combat leaders who have spent their lives dedicated to the study of war, combat and military leadership. They are the ones, at each level, who win wars.
21/24 The regulators are those who, in peacetime, maximise their promotion potential through the study of process, attendance at committees and focus on the bureaucratic side of military organisations. You need some of these in war and peace, but not too many.
22/24 It does help to have a clear and present threat to build and maintain the right balance of the two military leadership styles.
23/24 But my observation is that in many western military institutions (including my own), the regulators have been on the ascendant for many years. This must change if we are to successfully defend against the forces of high-tech authoritarian regimes in the years ahead.
24/24 My observations, part 3, ends. Sorry for the length of the thread! More tomorrow.

[astralis]

In 72 hours? You've got to be shitting me! No General worth his salt would plan such an outcome so early or rely on such an outcome.

if that's so, then why use air assault when they didn't have air superiority? activate sabotage/SOF groups to seize government buildings with no support?

why have four separate thrusts that can't reinforce each other? somewhat akin to the '79 Sino-Vietnam War, only less dumb.

the initial attempt was premised on Ukraine folding like a house of cards. like I said, high-risk high-reward. didn't pan out for them this time. it's a setback, not a strategic defeat. but, destroying the Ukrainian military was supposed to be the -easy- part for them.

Since when? They were damned quiet during Chechnya and there was zero peep about Russian victories in the 1st Ukraine War and no one was dancing about pro-Russian successes then either. Is your memory going?

there was a reason why Putin's popularity went through the roof, both post-Georgia and post-Crimea. of course he was bragging about it for the domestic audience.

In a 72 hour period? Even we ain't that good to switch this fast.

[Officer of Engineers]

if that's so, then why use air assault when they didn't have air superiority?

Oh come on! Surprise is damned good when it works. Also, it was a battalion level assault. It wasn't that big of a risk.

activate sabotage/SOF groups to seize government buildings with no support?

To cause havoc in the enemy's rear! Common practice since the days of the Khans.

why have four separate thrusts that can't reinforce each other? somewhat akin to the '79 Sino-Vietnam War, only less dumb.

Divide the enemy response. Defeat in Detail and it looks like it's damn working.

the initial attempt was premised on Ukraine folding like a house of cards. like I said, high-risk high-reward. didn't pan out for them this time. it's a setback, not a strategic defeat. but, destroying the Ukrainian military was supposed to be the -easy- part for them.

It still maybe easy. It's only been 72 hours! We took longer than that to clobber the Iraqis each time in 2 wars.

there was a reason why Putin's popularity went through the roof, both post-Georgia and post-Crimea. of course he was bragging about it for the domestic audience.

Yes, AFTER the wars.

[Parihaka]

This is the most surprising thing for me also, given the pre-war 'western' agit-prop. doing the rounds.

13/24 Their Ukrainian opponents have clearly planned and wargamed their overall defensive scheme of maneuver over many years. It appears to be methodical, disciplined with a clear sense of what is important to defend, and what is not.

and

17/24 Military leadership in the Ukrainian forces so far has also stood the ultimate test of military leaders – combat. This has been in evidence from their senior leadership deploying military forces & keeping their people informed, to their tactical operations.

and

19/24 Good leadership has always been a defining feature of successful combat forces. With their military leaders, the Ukrainians seem to have managed to sustain a good balance of what Andrew Gordon in ‘Rules of the Game’ called ‘ratcatchers’ and ‘regulators’.
20/24 The ratcatchers are the warfighters and combat leaders who have spent their lives dedicated to the study of war, combat and military leadership. They are the ones, at each level, who win wars.
21/24 The regulators are those who, in peacetime, maximise their promotion potential through the study of process, attendance at committees and focus on the bureaucratic side of military organisations. You need some of these in war and peace, but not too many.
22/24 It does help to have a clear and present threat to build and maintain the right balance of the two military leadership styles.
23/24 But my observation is that in many western military institutions (including my own), the regulators have been on the ascendant for many years. This must change if we are to successfully defend against the forces of high-tech authoritarian regimes in the years ahead.

Having spent 40 years in 'media' as both analyst and practitioner, I wholeheartedly agree with below.

18/24 The Ukrainians have been masters in the use of strategic communications to provide transparency for the world about the Russian invasion.

[astralis]

Divide the enemy response. Defeat in Detail and it looks like it's damn working.

I guess another way of me asking this question is, what would be an indication to you that the Russians are doing a BAD job?

other than the obvious "not achieving their objectives", of course.

is there a timeline where given the contrast in forces, it becomes clear that the Russians haven't used their force optimally?

[Officer of Engineers]

I guess another way of me asking this question is, what would be an indication to you that the Russians are doing a BAD job?

Not enough artillery.

is there a timeline where given the contrast in forces, it becomes clear that the Russians haven't used their force optimally?

Yes, right now. There is absolutely zero reason why the Russians couldn't take their own sweet time to do the job right. No need to rush to Kiev centre. Block by block destruction as they've done in Berlin. It's obvious that Kiev isn't a house of cards, then treat it like concrete.

[Red Team]

I have read that this guy in particular was a butcher back in Chechnya during the rounding up and killings of LGBTs in the country. Warms my heart to see one less absolute psychopath in the world. https://www.kiratas.com/chechen-gene...led-near-kiev/

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have assured that shortly after 8:30 p.m. they have “neutralized” the Chechen general, Magomed Tushayev. Apparently, he could have been killed near Kiev, in the area known as Hostome. Tushayev He was in charge of the 141 motorized regiment of the so-called Kadyrov guard: one of the most elite units in Chechnya and whose contingent would be made up of about 400 men.

Magomed Tushayev, was known as one of the Lords of war and its loss is a severe blow to the Chechen contingent that was moved to Kiev to support the Russian army in the capture of the Ukrainian capital.

According to information from the Ukrainian media, the country’s armed forces seriously damaged the column commanded by Tushayev. Alexei Goncharenko, the Ukrainian chairman of the Odessa Oblast Council and a member of Verkhovna Rada, reported via social media that Ukrainian army units in Gostomel had captured the “Kadyrovtsy” and “brought them to their knees.” These details alone recount the harshness of the war in Ukraine.

After the assassination of the president Kadyrov (father of the current president) in May 2004 two Spetsnaz battalions were formed, the Yug or South, whose commander was Alibek Delimjanov and had about 700 soldiers, and the Sever or North commanded by Muslim Ilyasov and which had about 500 troops. There are currently two other battalions, Vostok (East) and Západ (West).

The uniqueness of these soldiers is that they are mostly Sunni Muslim, somewhat similar to Turkish Muslims. These units are grouped into family clans so it is quite common for a soldier to fight alongside his siblings, parents, cousins or close relatives side by side. This prints a special character to these military units.

[Officer of Engineers]

Yes, right now. There is absolutely zero reason why the Russians couldn't take their own sweet time to do the job right. No need to rush to Kiev centre. Block by block destruction as they've done in Berlin. It's obvious that Kiev isn't a house of cards, then treat it like concrete.

Actually thinking this through, a good old fashion seige. Starve Zelensky out. There is absolutely zero reason why the Russians could not use time as a weapon.

[Red Team]

Colonel,

Those engineers at Hostomel Airport are going to have their work cut out for them. Fires and miscellaneous damage spotted by NASA FIRMS satellite, signified by the red and orange squares.

[Officer of Engineers]

I only see two of concern on the runway. It's a short hop from Russia to Kiev. The planes can fly in, unload, and take off again without refueling.