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  • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    I doubt the Ukrainian AD net could handle a sustained operation.
    Never mind the Ukrainians, I seriously question whether or not the Russian Air Force could handle a sustained operation.

    Hell, I'm still waiting for the Russians to put together just one jumbo strike package of a majority of the aviation assets they've got in-theater, which I'll say yet again, is their own front yard!

    Could such a strike package be fleshed out with adequate numbers of aircraft, pilots and PGMs? Doubtful.

    Could it be coordinated if it ever got in the air? Doubtful.

    Could it even be planned in the first place? Doubtful.
    “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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    • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
      Never mind the Ukrainians, I seriously question whether or not the Russian Air Force could handle a sustained operation.

      Hell, I'm still waiting for the Russians to put together just one jumbo strike package of a majority of the aviation assets they've got in-theater, which I'll say yet again, is their own front yard!

      Could such a strike package be fleshed out with adequate numbers of aircraft, pilots and PGMs? Doubtful.

      Could it be coordinated if it ever got in the air? Doubtful.

      Could it even be planned in the first place? Doubtful.
      A campiagn? Hell no. But they can do so over a single battlefield much like what the US did at Khe Sanh. The numbers are there. This is more of a case of them unwilling than unable. Have to be careful not to confuse the two.
      Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 20 Sep 22,, 20:50.
      Chimo

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      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
        A campiagn? Hell no. But they can do so over a single battlefield much like what the US did at Khe Sanh.
        No Sir, I didn't say campaign. I said just one strike package, because IMHO the sustained operation that you doubted the Ukrainian AD net could handle is all-but-impossible for the Russians to mount in the first place.

        Anyone know if there's OSINT floating around out there about the RuAF's biggest coordinated strike (if any) of the war to date?
        “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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        • Of course they can put together a strike package. They did it several times already. Twice from the Black Seas
          Chimo

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          • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
            Of course they can put together a strike package. They did it several times already. Twice from the Black Seas
            The Black Seas? Ok I'm confused....
            “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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            • New Russian airstrikes target Black Sea regions of Ukraine | AP News

              KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia targeted Ukraine’s southern Black Sea regions of Odesa and Mykolaiv with airstrikes Tuesday, hitting private buildings and port infrastructure with missiles fired from long-range bomber aircraft, the Ukrainian military said.

              In the Odesa region, buildings in coastal villages were hit and caught fire, Ukraine’s Operational Command South said on Facebook. A Ukrainian air force spokesman said long-range Russian Tu-22M3 bombers and Su-30 and Su-35 fighter jets launched the strikes from the Black Sea. In the Mykolaiv region, port infrastructure was targeted despite agreements intended to allow grain grain shipments to resume from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports ...
              Do note that the Russians launched from well outside of MANPAD but not SAM range ... because the Ukrainians don't have that many SAMs and the ones they do have are around major population or military centres and certainly not out in the middle of the Black Seas.

              Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 20 Sep 22,, 22:49.
              Chimo

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              • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                Do note that the Russians launched from well outside of MANPAD but not SAM range ... because the Ukrainians don't have that many SAMs and the ones they do have are around major population or military centres and certainly not out in the middle of the Black Seas.
                I dunno, I wouldn't really call that a strike package, just a bunch of bombers that fired off some cruise missiles. They were doing that in Syria.

                I'm talking about a coordinated combined arms package of aircraft: Fighters, Ground Attack, SEAD/DEAD, EW jammers, Reconnaissance for pre- and post-strike intel, AEW&C, aerial tankers if needed, everything including the kitchen sink, what the USN calls an alpha strike.

                “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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                • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                  I'm talking about a coordinated combined arms package of aircraft: Fighters, Ground Attack, SEAD/DEAD, EW jammers, Reconnaissance for pre- and post-strike intel, AEW&C, aerial tankers if needed, everything including the kitchen sink, what the USN calls an alpha strike.
                  You're describing an air campaign.
                  Chimo

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                  • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                    You're describing an air campaign.
                    Multiple sustained alpha strikes, sure that's an air campaign. But a single sortie strike package against a localized target? I doubt they could pull even that much off. Their air force is acting like you described their armed forces as a whole: There is no unified military effort.
                    “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
                      Multiple sustained alpha strikes, sure that's an air campaign. But a single sortie strike package against a localized target? I doubt they could pull even that much off. Their air force is acting like you described their armed forces as a whole: There is no unified military effort.
                      Ok, let's back up a bit. Where's the Ukrainian AD when Russia launched its Black Sea attack? There wasn't any, not even DEW. So, why would you want to include SEAD in the strike? Does the lack of Ukrainian AD efforts minimize Russian damage? Did the package achieve the results?

                      Can the Russians launch an airstrike package near the Polish border? Not on your life. But that does not minimize the damage they can do to undefended targets and they're smart enough and capable enough of carrying it through. Did they get within range of Ukrainian MANPAD systems? Hell no but why would they want or need to?

                      Again, the Russians stand no chance against heavily SAM defended sites with a capable CAP but that's not all over the UKR and those areas are where the RuAF can and does do the most damage. So, yes, they can devised a strike package based on those targeting priorities.
                      Chimo

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                      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                        Ok, let's back up a bit. Where's the Ukrainian AD when Russia launched its Black Sea attack? There wasn't any, not even DEW. So, why would you want to include SEAD in the strike? Does the lack of Ukrainian AD efforts minimize Russian damage? Did the package achieve the results?

                        Can the Russians launch an airstrike package near the Polish border? Not on your life. But that does not minimize the damage they can do to undefended targets and they're smart enough and capable enough of carrying it through. Did they get within range of Ukrainian MANPAD systems? Hell no but why would they want or need to?

                        Again, the Russians stand no chance against heavily SAM defended sites with a capable CAP but that's not all over the UKR and those areas are where the RuAF can and does do the most damage. So, yes, they can devised a strike package based on those targeting priorities.
                        Sir, the only point I was making was "Can the Russians put together a 'combined arms' air strike against a Ukrainian target, something that requires assembling, arming and coordinating a large number of multiple types of aircraft, not unlike what the USAF and USN did on the regular against North Vietnam 50 years ago?"

                        I think the answer is, no, they can't.
                        “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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                        • I get you now. From what you've just described, no, they can't. To me, a strike package is a single package designed to hit a specific target. Can be one plane or multiple planes. All target dependent. The target defines the strike package. You don't drop a nuke to do CAS.
                          Chimo

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                          • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                            ISW says 4AC's paperwork is done. Don't know when it's receiving its Colours. They have a point of why rasing new Army Corps when existing CAAs have the HQs needed to receive new manpower, The suggestion is that Putin and his Generals are butting heads and Putin wants an army outside of the Russian Army's control. The Army and Air Force are certainly butting heads. The Air Force could easily turn the tide if it's determine to sustain the losses and establish air superiority over the battlefield.

                            All this to say if you're going to do a job half ass, you're going to get half ass results.
                            Didn't the 3rd get its papers not so long ago? I only ask because the Russians had high hopes for that formation and based on what I've read recently the 3rds combat power has pretty much been pissed against the wall in the panic to do something (anything) about Ukraine's Kharkiv offensive. Or am I wrong and the 3rd is still a threat?
                            Last edited by Monash; 21 Sep 22,, 08:28.
                            If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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                            • I have zero ideas at this point. I had thought they would get 6 months training but they got the usual 30 days. Elite they are not. I'm getting the idea that this is now attrition warfare, that Putin is now just pumping mercs into the fight expecting them to die instead of paying them. It's also a 6 month tour and being thrown into the teeth of Ukrainian arms. TASK AND PURPOSE quoted 80K Russian casualties (I don't believe that) and 40K Ukrainian casualties (I also do not believe that). What we can confirmed is that Keiv has made it illegal for men of fighting age to leave the country and that age restriction has been lifted to serve. Age has also been lifted in Russia. Whether true or not, it does seem that Russia can replace her losses. TASK AND PURPOSE estimate 3AC to be 30K strong.

                              With mercanary armies, toss the GC out the window. Just shoot the bastards on sight and save yourself the headache and heartache of a trial.

                              Questionable Russian Attempts to Rebuild their Army - Task and Purpose | Youtube

                              Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 21 Sep 22,, 01:38.
                              Chimo

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                              • ISW 9/20/22

                                "...Whether true or not, it does seem that Russia can replace her losses..."

                                I'm sorry but it's either true or not. ISW and others (Gen. Ben Hodges among others) say "not true" regarding Russian force generation capabilities. At present, they've neither the men nor the ways and means.

                                Meanwhile, Russia is fielding, according to ISW, four new motor rifle battalions in the east and drawing officers for these units from their Far Eastern Higher Combined Arms Command School. Russia is (and has been for some time now) willfully neutering its own training base. Even should Russia draw 1,000,000 men to arms, they can neither equip, train nor sustain these forces anytime in the foreseeable future. Their training base is being gutted. Further, this war has crystalized Russia's need to thoroughly revamp it's entire military ethos (much less doctrine)...and, oh yeah, training base. The way the Russian army has prepared for this war displays it is presently an abject operational clown show. More men would only be herding lambs to the slaughter.

                                DPR/LPR referendums won't change anything. Any Russian patriot or Donetsk/Luhansk Nazi who felt the call to arms has already done so. "Volunteers" now would be of the most coercive nature. Conscripts in Russia had their rights violated on Feb. 24. Continuing to violate their rights won't change anything, including their imminent deaths.

                                Under sanctions and with a domestic audience reticent to die in Ukraine, Russia is far from resource rich. As long as we don't blink, instead standing steadfast, Russia is further from victory than Ukraine IMV.
                                Last edited by S2; 21 Sep 22,, 04:32.
                                "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
                                "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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