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2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

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  • Wonder how much global warming has afected winter in that area?...

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    • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
      You can ice fish on 4", but unlike a lake, the thickness on a river is going to vastly vary from place to place. On a river that size there will always be areas that are unsafe even if it looks completely frozen over.
      This is war we're talking about. If there is a chance the Russians can do it, they will do it. Again, ponton over it.

      Chimo

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      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
        This is war we're talking about. If there is a chance the Russians can do it, they will do it. Again, ponton over it.
        They've been trying. So far apparently without much success.
        If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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        • Originally posted by Monash View Post
          They've been trying. So far apparently without much success.
          Give the Ukrainians a lot of credit for that. However, the ponton ferries are still running.

          Chimo

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          • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
            Give the Ukrainians a lot of credit for that. However, the ponton ferries are still running.
            Yes, conditions being what they are it would be completely unrealistic to expect that the Ukrainians could interdict all resupply efforts. That said I don't see the Russians being able to get nearly enough supplies and munitions across to support all 20,000 troops men and their equipment, especially when those troops are committed to active operations and not just sitting in garrison. And winter is coming (as the franchise says) so something has gotta give. My money is on that 'something' being Russia's hold on Kherson, not now but not 6 months from now either.
            If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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            • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
              You can ice fish on 4", but unlike a lake, the thickness on a river is going to vastly vary from place to place. On a river that size there will always be areas that are unsafe even if it looks completely frozen over.
              How much does a tank weigh? I’d imagine you’d be looking at 2 feet minimum in thickness to safely get a tank over an ice bridge. Speaking from experience working in the oil fields up north, any equipment weighing a minimum 10 tonnes, the ice needs to be at minimum 15 inches thick to safely traverse. Key word safely.

              On a river like the Dnipro, I’d highly doubt you’d find that type of thickness where the current is. Could be wrong though. I don’t know how cold and for how long it gets in southern Ukraine.

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              • Originally posted by statquo View Post

                How much does a tank weigh? I’d imagine you’d be looking at 2 feet minimum in thickness to safely get a tank over an ice bridge. Speaking from experience working in the oil fields up north, any equipment weighing a minimum 10 tonnes, the ice needs to be at minimum 15 inches thick to safely traverse. Key word safely.

                On a river like the Dnipro, I’d highly doubt you’d find that type of thickness where the current is. Could be wrong though. I don’t know how cold and for how long it gets in southern Ukraine.
                A T-80 is 42 - 46 metric tons depending on which variant. A BMP-1 is 13.5 tons, a BMP-2 is 15 tons and a BMP-3 is 18 tons. Use those numbers for a planning metric on how much ice you need to cross with a reasonable amount of safety.

                “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                Mark Twain

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                • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post

                  A T-80 is 42 - 46 metric tons depending on which variant. A BMP-1 is 13.5 tons, a BMP-2 is 15 tons and a BMP-3 is 18 tons. Use those numbers for a planning metric on how much ice you need to cross with a reasonable amount of safety.
                  Best practices would suggest that vehicles weighing between 5000kg-63500kg must maintain 500m distance from one another on 1m thickness of ice.

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                  • Originally posted by Monash View Post
                    Yes, conditions being what they are it would be completely unrealistic to expect that the Ukrainians could interdict all resupply efforts. That said I don't see the Russians being able to get nearly enough supplies and munitions across to support all 20,000 troops men and their equipment, especially when those troops are committed to active operations and not just sitting in garrison. And winter is coming (as the franchise says) so something has gotta give. My money is on that 'something' being Russia's hold on Kherson, not now but not 6 months from now either.
                    Goes both ways. Mud is going to hamper Ukrainian LOCs while the Russians have a clear way all the way to the river. 6 months is way too long to judge for this conflict. If the Ukrainians are going to make a move, it will be long before six months. They are bleeding men and machines in this current battle. They can afford this a lot less than the Russians.

                    Chimo

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                    • Originally posted by statquo View Post
                      How much does a tank weigh? I’d imagine you’d be looking at 2 feet minimum in thickness to safely get a tank over an ice bridge. Speaking from experience working in the oil fields up north, any equipment weighing a minimum 10 tonnes, the ice needs to be at minimum 15 inches thick to safely traverse. Key word safely.

                      On a river like the Dnipro, I’d highly doubt you’d find that type of thickness where the current is. Could be wrong though. I don’t know how cold and for how long it gets in southern Ukraine.
                      Armour? During the worst of Stalingrad and Leningrad, the Soviets were shipping food and ammo only. Armour was reserved for those GLOCs that can sustain it, not the ice bridges and a T-34 is a lot lighter than a BMP or BTR.

                      Chimo

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                      • ISW says 4AC's paperwork is done. Don't know when it's receiving its Colours. They have a point of why rasing new Army Corps when existing CAAs have the HQs needed to receive new manpower, The suggestion is that Putin and his Generals are butting heads and Putin wants an army outside of the Russian Army's control. The Army and Air Force are certainly butting heads. The Air Force could easily turn the tide if it's determine to sustain the losses and establish air superiority over the battlefield.

                        All this to say if you're going to do a job half ass, you're going to get half ass results.
                        Chimo

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                        • So this long into the war I am starting to wonder about a sustained maintenance possible issue. Are the howitzer barrel linings wearing out? Ukraine has gotten an influx of NATO weapons of much newer grade. I wonder what the barrel lining life is for 2S1/2S3/2S19s?

                          As much stock the Russians put in their artillery and how much it has been used over the past 4 months I gotta wonder how barrel life is holding up.
                          “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                          Mark Twain

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                          • The Air Force could easily turn the tide if it's determine to sustain the losses and establish air superiority over the battlefield.
                            "if ifs and buts were candied nuts, we'd all be fat."

                            and that's true for RuAF, for Russian mobilization, etc.

                            RuAF had air superiority on day 1 of the war due to operational surprise, and they completely wasted that window of opportunity because they're shit at completing the kill chain, more precisely finding and targeting in a timely manner.

                            that they're doing the equivalent of half-assed area bombing shows that this hasn't exactly improved.

                            so yeah, if they really came out and played, sure, they could probably kill more Ukrainians, but I doubt it would result in any significant operational success...and given the number of anti-aircraft platforms the Ukrainians are now sporting that they didn't have beforehand, RuAF would be ripped apart with that effort. Russians have already lost 55 aircraft even with nominal air superiority. pathetic.

                            and that Air Force isn't gonna be rebuilt by throwing convicts into the fight.

                            There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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                            • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                              so yeah, if they really came out and played, sure, they could probably kill more Ukrainians, but I doubt it would result in any significant operational success...and given the number of anti-aircraft platforms the Ukrainians are now sporting that they didn't have beforehand, RuAF would be ripped apart with that effort. Russians have already lost 55 aircraft even with nominal air superiority. pathetic.

                              and that Air Force isn't gonna be rebuilt by throwing convicts into the fight.
                              I doubt the Ukrainian AD net could handle a sustained operation, especially if the Russians maintain high altitude attacks instead of low level as they've been doping. We will certainly see losses on par with LINEBACKERS 1 & 2 but the LINEBACKERS were operational wins.

                              But you've missed the point about all of this. There is no unified military effort. The military is divided with the political is undermining the military as well.
                              Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 20 Sep 22,, 18:34.
                              Chimo

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                              • Putin about to address the nation.

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