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2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

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  • The attrition fight is causing the Russians issues. Not Ukraine. Unlike Seiverodonetsk, Ukraine isn't pushing its infantry over piles of rubble to face determined men defending their homelands. Instead, they're advancing, drawing fire, identifying the culprit and laying fire on him while asking if he's well-fed and, perhaps, might like a break.

    Russians west of the Dnieper know the score. An air assault brigade with its H.Q. on the east side of the river can't supply its troops engaged on the west side. Think about it-if that were a brigade cdr of the 101st Airborne, he'd be relieved along with the Log G-4 and aviation brigade cdr. Worse, if they can't be supplied then how the hell are the Russians going to get them back if need be? Meanwhile a naval infantry regiment is kaput at 85% losses.

    Ukraine WAITED until the Russians had received a telegraphed message and acted upon it by heavily reinforcing Kherson throughout July/August. Then Ukraine initiated the offensive prep by attacking the transit points persistently for three weeks plus through most of August...

    ...and they've continued to maintain that pressure on Russia's transit points while also attacking every identified ASP they (we) can find. And we've found a lot of them. The Russians are engaged across a long front, incurring casualties the entire length and expending ammo that they can't resupply at their present usage rates. Taking out the dam at Krivoi Rog along the Inhulets was an act of desperation yielding marginal results. At the flooding's worst, Ukraine maintained half its crossing points. That's since improved, rendering this attack as a data point blip. Both Russia's means and will to resist in Kherson are eroding in a most corrosive manner.

    ISW Sept. 18, 2022

    Last edited by S2; 19 Sep 22,, 05:47.
    "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski
    "The only true currency in this bankrupt world is what you share with someone else when you're uncool." Lester Bangs

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    • And yet the lines are holding. I take casualty reports with truck loads of salt. If we go by Ukrainian reports, the entire Russian invasion force should be destroyed by now. And the Ukrainians are also extremely quiet about their own expenditures and casualties. The fact that the Russian lines are not collapsing nor any reports of mass surrender indicates the lines are holding which also mean the Ukrainians have not been able to overwhelm any line just yet. Russian stocks have yet to run low enough for the Russians to be desperate, indicating a very long battle of attrition ahead if indeed that is what the Ukrainians are planning. I don't think so. I feel that they must have another ace up their sleeve.

      ISW even reported the Russians have gone on local counter-attacks. That is not a sign of men short of ammo.
      Chimo

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      • So I know mud season is approaching and soon winter. But I was wondering if the Kherson front would lend itself to a winter offensive. I only say this because the intended goals/gains would, it seems to me be strictly limited i.e. in general an advance at selected points of say 30-40 K max with the intention of forcing the Russians back far enough that most if not all of the territory they occupy down to the river is effectively within artillery range. Not capture Kherson, just 'shrink the pocket' until it becomes untenable in the medium term.
        Last edited by Monash; 19 Sep 22,, 08:10.
        If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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        • Winter also allows ice bridges
          Chimo

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          • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
            Winter also allows ice bridges
            Apparently not so much or for very long in the south, depending on the how severe season is. Also not to a depth that anyone would risk more than light vehicles on it and certainly not military ones. So if the Russians want to hold ice hockey tournaments on it to pass the time they can be my guest.
            If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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            • Like a Chevy S10? Just make sure the local farmers shoot their horses and burn their wagons and trailers. You want 12 inches but can make do with 8 (sounds like a porno)
              Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 19 Sep 22,, 07:27.
              Chimo

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              • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                Like a Chevy S10? Just make sure the local farmers shoot their horses and burn their wagons and trailers. You want 12 inches but can make do with 8 (sounds like a porno)
                I just had the mental image of the Russians tying to sleigh supplies across the ice and the Ukrainians (just to make it interesting) calling in random fire missions of impact fused 152s and 155s.
                Last edited by Monash; 20 Sep 22,, 12:07.
                If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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                • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                  Winter also allows ice bridges
                  Maybe across a lake, or perhaps a narrow stream. The Mississippi River here in Minneapolis is never transversable in the depths of winter. I don't imagine the Dnipro ever would be.
                  "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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                  • Originally posted by Ironduke View Post
                    Maybe across a lake, or perhaps a narrow stream. The Mississippi River here in Minneapolis is never transversable in the depths of winter. I don't imagine the Dnipro ever would be.
                    Enough to chance it with pontoon sleds

                    https://www.google.com/search?client...GeN7VK5yOOP1JM

                    Chimo

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                    • I more than think they're setting KZs for concentrated Russian lines.
                      . Russian stocks have yet to run low enough for the Russians to be desperate, indicating a very long battle of attrition ahead if indeed that is what the Ukrainians are planning. I don't think so. I feel that they must have another ace up their sleeve.
                      makes sense to me. as I understand it none of these things preclude each other, right?
                      There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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                      • No, they don't preclue each other but I expect some sort of exploitation after a mass kill.
                        Chimo

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                        • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                          Enough to chance it with pontoon sleds

                          https://www.google.com/search?client...GeN7VK5yOOP1JM
                          I doubt they're going to sled anything across the Dnipro. Trying to cross that river in winter is going to be death. They could just lay spans across a narrow point.
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                          "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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                          • They're ice fishing. Meaning 12 inches of ice.
                            Chimo

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                            • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                              They're ice fishing. Meaning 12 inches of ice.
                              You can ice fish on 4", but unlike a lake, the thickness on a river is going to vastly vary from place to place. On a river that size there will always be areas that are unsafe even if it looks completely frozen over.
                              "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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                              • Well, I imagine we will find out in a few months what the ice looks like near Kherson in winter. The Russians had better hope it is thick enough to support a fast moving human carrying as little as possible.
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                                Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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