2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Officer of Engineers]

Via twitter the center of Moscow has been blocked off.

https://twitter.com/dangerkidsbooks/status/1568622184435949568

It's supposed to be for Moscow Day Celebration and the reason being is that they're dragging a giant ass pool into city centre.

[Monash]

Via twitter the center of Moscow has been blocked off....

Meanwhile municipal deputies from one of Moscow's administrative districts are calling for Putin's resignation-

Positions Vacant Next Monday: 'Municipal Deputies Moscow District XXX', several positions available. Excellent working conditions apply Mr V Putin/ - care 'the bunker under the Kremlin'. '
Funeral NoticesThursday; ' It is with great sadness. something, something something, tragic accident, snowplow something'...'

[astralis]

In the past 24 hours, UKR has captured 95 vehicles/arty, including 24x tanks and 26x BMPs.

Russians have really outdone themselves in turning AFU into a mechanized force.

[Monash]

In the past 24 hours, UKR has captured 95 vehicles/arty, including 24x tanks and 26x BMPs.

Russians have really outdone themselves in turning AFU into a mechanized force.

Lots and lots of questions.

For example how long and to what extent can Ukraine keep reinforcing success (assuming they are reinforcing)? Not that I'd expect to see any open source reporting on the topic but I can see the Ukrainians being caught short by the rapid success of their Western offensive. If they were then its entirely possible they would have to scramble to get additional reinforcements & supplies into Kharkiv in order to keep the push going until such time as Russian defenses solidify and might not be able to manage it in time. Alternatively they have succeeded in doing so, in which case given their commitments elsewhere how much more weight can they actually afford to commit? I guess it comes down to what mobile reserve do they currently have and can they risk it.

[astralis]

Well according to reports the Russians have been ordered to withdraw from Kharkiv oblast, so the Ukrainians don’t need to push out the Russians.

Which means the Ukrainians have time and space to re-organize and hit the Russians at Luhansk or the Melitopol direction with their maneuver force. the Territorial Defense guys can advance into the rest of Kharkiv oblast to raise flags and identify defensive strongpoints for any future Russian attempt to relitigate the last few days.

[Monash]

Well according to reports the Russians have been ordered to withdraw from Kharkiv oblast, so the Ukrainians don’t need to push out the Russians.

Which means the Ukrainians have time and space to re-organize and hit the Russians at Luhansk or the Melitopol direction with their maneuver force. the Territorial Defense guys can advance into the rest of Kharkiv oblast to raise flags and identify defensive strongpoints for any future Russian attempt to relitigate the last few days.

I was kind of wondering whether they'd be keen to keep pushing south into Luhansk and northern Donetsk while the Russians are still tripping over their own shoelaces.

[Ironduke]

A document purported to be from the Russian Ministry of Finance, stating that 361.9 billion rubles have been budgeted to compensate the families of 48,759 Russian KIA in Ukraine. Could very well be a fake, but it's circulating out in the aether.

[TopHatter]

In the past 24 hours, UKR has captured 95 vehicles/arty, including 24x tanks and 26x BMPs.

Man I wish I'd started a tractor sales & rental dealership in eastern Ukraine

[Officer of Engineers]

Man I wish I'd started a tractor sales & rental dealership in eastern Ukraine

Pffft! I start up a tractor modifyig business. T-72 engined customized tractors.

[Monash]

Man I wish I'd started a tractor sales & rental dealership in eastern Ukraine

My pick would be a engineering vehicle like the IMR-3M. That rig would definitely help you earn a living. Blowing shit up is fun but price of ammo being what it is?

[Officer of Engineers]

Well according to reports the Russians have been ordered to withdraw from Kharkiv oblast, so the Ukrainians don’t need to push out the Russians.

My gut says keep pushing. Keep them off balance. Don't let them organize a retreat. The more men and machine that escapes, the more will come back to bite again later. You just don't have to kill yourself to do it.

[Officer of Engineers]

I still can't wrap my head around this war. What I thought to be regt/bde engagements are done by coys, not even bns. Bns have done the div level work. This does not bode well for the Russians ... or the Ukrainians when they have to do div and corps/army level work. NATO will always have Battle Groups/Task Forces but we are becoming brigade/division centric again. I mean do the Russians seriously think that BTGs would stop Chinese Group Armies? Even the Nov Kilos have better organization than either of these two combattants.

Seriously, you want the Ukrainians to march to Moscow? Organize a division size expeditionary force.

[S2]

ISW 9/11/22

Being called a major operational defeat. All Russians north of Kharkiv ejected across the border east to Vovchansk and then southeast to Velykyi Burlak and then Kupyansk. Still haven't received confirmation of Ukrainian troops across the Oskil river in eastern Kupyansk. ISW doesn't yet confirm the capture of Lyman either. Instead, they're suggesting fighting still is ongoing with the town remaining in Russian hands.

Evidently there are Ukrainian troops in Bilohorivka (which one? Two within 30km of each other) but Ukrainian forces have been slow to generate wholesale crossings of the Siverskyi Donets river...maybe. I'd understood Ukrainian troops to be again in Kremmina. If so, to a great extent the Ukrainians have already outflanked any Oskil river line defense should they be able to exploit north/northeast. New opportunities could develop contingent upon available resources and time across a broad tactical (and, frankly, strategic) front. With the advantage of interior lines, the Ukrainians can exploit any significant Russian re-positioning.

Re-positioning is all Russia has, btw. There are no significant, trained/equipped operational reserves immediately available. Reinforcements from Belgorod? Those cats got shot up-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBA3O2mORvI

Whether satellite imagery or small unit dismounted reconnaissance (or all the above) wherever a vacuum, the Ukrainians should fill it. There's five to six weeks of excellent weather remaining.

[Officer of Engineers]

Both sides should be able to draw down their Kherson forces since it's obviously now a distraction.

[Monash]

Both sides should be able to draw down their Kherson forces since it's obviously now a distraction.

I do query how the Russians are going to do that if their LOCs are constantly being disrupted. I also query why the Ukrainians would necessarily want to withdraw either.

Granted I'm total layman but that said I don't see much of a 'lose' situation at Kherosn for Ukraine unless they suddenly have a rush of blood to the head and decide to attack recklessly, driving up casualties in the process. And based on their operational performance to date that's not very likely. Anything else? If the Russians do somehow manage to withdraw with their troops & their equipment then the Uki's job only becomes easier and they have another major propaganda victory when they retake Kherson (and the water supply for Crimea). If the Russians don't (or can't) withdraw then at worst their tying down 20,000 or so troops and all their equipment. ! Both of which are desperately needed elsewhere. Potentially? They could even force the Russians to abandon their positions and equipment and rout.

So I see no real downside for Ukraine in maintaining their operations in that sector. Oh, I wouldn't necessarily reinforce it significantly (unless I saw clear signs of a Russian collapse underway )but I wouldn't withdraw either, especially if there are other reinforcements that can be moved into the Kharkiv sector sooner.