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Originally posted by Mithridates
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The fighting in Kyiv would have been a month ago. He was never going to mobilize faster than an army already sitting on his borders. This attack is a replay of the Sochi Olympics. Russia wanted to wait until the games were done and Putin knew he had Xi's support against sanctions. Ukraine moving up its own timetable would simply have forced Russia's hands earlier and a harder freeze may well have helped the Russians move even quicker. He would also have not gotten several weapons shipments. At least heading into spring if Kyiv loses power we won't have (as many of) the frozen husks of civilians being found during a thaw. -
Germany is about to send 1000 anti tank missiles and rpg's as well as 500 manpads.Comment
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"Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."Comment
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Reports of two more IL-76's shot down over Kyiv by Ukrainian Member of Parliament, as of yet unconfirmed by corresponding Western sources. If this is true, these past 72 hours have been a horrible time to be a VDV Airborne trooper."Draft beer, not people."Comment
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Allies are kicking a number of Russian banks out of SWIFT and blocking golden passportsComment
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The big target is the Russian Central Bank, which will prevent them from conducting actions to mitigate severe fluctuations in the Ruble. That's going to hurt.Originally posted by zraver View Post"Draft beer, not people."Comment
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"Draft beer, not people."Comment
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Cant even wrap by head around the very long term second order effects to the global financial system as other major powers like India and China watch this. Story for another day, I don't want to derail the thread but worth musing on.Originally posted by Red Team View PostComment
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As one of the replies says lets hope he lives so he can never live it downOriginally posted by Red Team View PostComment
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Russian thrusts against Kharkiv and JFO have bogged down. initial shock and awe attempts on Kyiv were wrecked.Brits say 450 Russian dead and the Russian performance is impressive, very impressive. A 36 hour march to the gates of Kiev and some very minor set back. The initial airport assault for example. Six helos down ~ 2 companies worth and they managed to hold the airport for several hours before driven off. The Ukrainians didn't destroy the remaining force. They was driven off and still acted as the reccee force. We didn't see the bodies. Ukrainian TV would have platestered the airwaves.
American and British intel says the Russians are behind schedule as if this is a big win for the Ukrainians. It isn't. No operation stays on schedule.
Lastly, do not trust Zelensky. He's boasting. Last night were obviously probing attacks, not the main thrust.
Russian logistics are going to hell; their short range ballistic missile stockpile is rapidly running short.
Russian armor is getting absolutely plastered and Spetznatz have been overwhelmed repeatedly.
450 Russian dead is old information (assessment published morning of 25th based on 1st day of fighting); based on open-source the body count by now is minimum 1K and probably considerably higher given the downing of the Il-76s.
I don't know about "impressive, very impressive". Ukrainian performance has been significantly better than most people predicted and Russian performance rather worse. not saying that Ukraine is gonna win this -- things are at a knife-edge -- but they're giving the Russians a hell of a run for their money, and if they can hold on for a few more days, things get rapidly worse for Putin.There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac AsimovComment
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It also (along with the causality count) means Russia lost. Maybe not today, but eventually her forex will dry up. It's time to think about offering an olive branch and a way out before too much blood and treasure is spilled. We could be on the verge of a run away situation.Originally posted by Red Team View PostComment
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That would depend on whether the Chinese come to the rescue. China's economy is 10x Russia's. It can carry Russia. The question is whether it wants to, and on what terms.Originally posted by zraver View PostComment
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If the situation can truly deterioate for the russians then that places a great deal of emphasis on Kyiv in the comng days for the russians...Originally posted by astralis View Post
I take it that it is simply impossible to make an assessment of how well positioned the city defenses are...
US intelligence expressed concern on day 1 about a rapid fall(I am assuming Kabul and availability bias weighing heavily on the mind), any leaks from today on how the capitals defenses are positioned?
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Video out of Kharkov answers the question of where the artillery is....Comment
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Exactly. Otherwise winning could end up everyone losing even bigger. And "winning" starts to introduce very large tail risks...Originally posted by zraver View Post
What could that be ??? Russia goes home, Ukraine agrees no nato and staying neutral
Who knows perhaps that alone sinks Putin long term (Have cake and eat it scenario)Comment
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