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2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

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  • A good morning indeed.
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    Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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    • Eric, stretched LOCs is more than stretched LOGs. Several Ukrainian units are in danger of being surrounded. They advanced so far, so fast that they're outside of Ukrainian guns support. And your big armoured RES is even further behind than the guns.

      Gentlemen, in case I wasn't clear (and I wasn't), the OPOBJ is to now find the Russian OPRES. As long as the Russian OPRES is still in the field, the Russians still have options. The entire cornerstone of DEEP BATTLE and AIR-LAND is to kill the RES, to deny the enemy any operational options. So, yes, it is better to push forward than to sit back. Until you find the Russian OPRES, you're blind to what the Russian options are and that is not good.
      Chimo

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      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
        At this point, I worry about overstretching the LOCs but I also worry about losing contact with the enemy.
        My thoughts exactly, Sir. I understand the Ukrainians are operating in a much for forgiving environment than the Russians but I am wondering about sources of fuel, spare parts and medevac.

        Of course when the 3rd ID made the drive through Objectives Curly, Larry & Moe and id the armored Thunder Run into downtown Baghdad they did so being BLACK in fuel & ammo. Speed and violence of action can overcome logistics issues if you break the enemy. Keep in mind it was a lack of fuel that stopped Patton and not any German defenses.

        Looking at the weather for the next 2 weeks temperatures upper 50sF-lower60sF with rain off and on. Wonder that will imp[act operations.
        Last edited by Albany Rifles; 10 Sep 22,, 15:29.
        “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
        Mark Twain

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        • Originally posted by astralis View Post
          Good morning. Lyman and Izyum and Krupyansk have all been reported to be liberated by AFU.

          Looks to me like the Ukrainians still have a big reserve (the armored force was barely committed, again, no more than company sized initial attack).

          stretched logs is an issue but on the other hand they captured a metric fuckton of Russian equipment and depots because the AFU absolutely overran the Russians. That will slightly mitigate AFU log issues while severely impacting any Russian counteroffensive, especially because the LOCS have been severed and terrain now works in Ukraine’s favor.

          I’m more confident of Ukraine’s ability to solidify their position compared to Russian ability to stop the panic, fix log issues, and execute a sustained counterattack.
          So my question then is how many, if any Russian troops have been cut off and encircled? And following on from that is the apparent collapse of effective Russian resistance at the leading edge of the advance ongoing? (Can't see that situation lasting much longer BTW, if only because the Uki's themselves will reach a point where they have to call a halt.)
          If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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          • I also want to clarify something. I worry ABOUT overstretching the LOCs but they're not over-extended just yet. They are under strained but has not collapse yet. So, it is time to carefully manage resources. Do the Ukrainians rush guns forward to make sure those front units without guns support get it as fast possible ... or keep guns on those in the desperate fight now.
            Chimo

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            • Eric, stretched LOCs is more than stretched LOGs. Several Ukrainian units are in danger of being surrounded. They advanced so far, so fast that they're outside of Ukrainian guns support. And your big armoured RES is even further behind than the guns.

              Gentlemen, in case I wasn't clear (and I wasn't), the OPOBJ is to now find the Russian OPRES. As long as the Russian OPRES is still in the field, the Russians still have options. The entire cornerstone of DEEP BATTLE and AIR-LAND is to kill the RES, to deny the enemy any operational options. So, yes, it is better to push forward than to sit back. Until you find the Russian OPRES, you're blind to what the Russian options are and that is not good.
              yes, I know that "prior experience =/= future performance", but honestly the Russians have not demonstrated any ability in this war to dynamically mass and counter-attack at scale. I just see unimaginative methodical set campaigns only, telegraphed far in advance. frankly if the Russians have an OPRES, they really fucked up by not deploying that prior to the loss of so many critical supply nodes. their pre-emptive withdrawal from threatened cities like Izyum would indicate that high command either doesn't think the frontline troops can hang on for OPRES arrival, or that they're trying to avoid Ukrainian hugging tactics.

              what reserves they have seem to be in Kherson as a result of that excellent Ukrainian deception campaign. which means if they re-deploy from there, the Ukrainians can now bite.

              bottom-line, yes, the Ukrainians are accepting a certain level of risk, but for the time being it seems to be an acceptable one given the prize. I don't see Ilovaisk part 2 here.

              EDIT:

              I also want to clarify something. I worry ABOUT overstretching the LOCs but they're not over-extended just yet. They are under strained but has not collapse yet. So, it is time to carefully manage resources. Do the Ukrainians rush guns forward to make sure those front units without guns support get it as fast possible ... or keep guns on those in the desperate fight now.
              looks like we're in violent agreement here.



              There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

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              • An anti UAV gun? Some kind of jammer?
                https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1...fr8WwueoZmSNhQ

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                • Quite lovely to awaken this morning and find that the Ukrainians have liberated everything I outlined in my map from last night. :)

                  liveuamap is also showing a swath of territory north of Kupiansk half the size again as the liberated areas as no longer being occupied as well. I imagine this area was more weakly held as with the Donets Reservoir to the west, it was probably not necessary to have so many forces there before the Ukrainians advanced to the Oskil River.

                  Also reports that the Ukrainians have advanced toward Lysychansk.
                  Attached Files
                  Last edited by Ironduke; 10 Sep 22,, 17:14.
                  "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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                  • Unconfirmed reports that the UA has reached/entered .Lysychansk and Severodonetsk.

                    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...023939/photo/1

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                    • UA might make it all the way to Moscow at this rate.

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                      • Originally posted by statquo View Post
                        UA might make it all the way to Moscow at this rate.
                        Yeah... that would scare me #$%& out of me. Cause what's Putin going to do if he can't stop the ucranians? He's not going to surrender, or admit any kind of defeat. He'd be finished.

                        I keep getting nightmares of "maniac dictator backed into a wall, pushes bio/nuke button."

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                        • Originally posted by statquo View Post
                          UA might make it all the way to Moscow at this rate.
                          Seeing reports of Ukraine taking over Donetsk airport? Are there no Russian reserves or are they refusing to fight?

                          If Donetsk is taken, what's the next objective? Mariupol? (Moscow would be an even nicer prize of course )

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                          • Originally posted by jlvfr View Post

                            Yeah... that would scare me #$%& out of me. Cause what's Putin going to do if he can't stop the ucranians? He's not going to surrender, or admit any kind of defeat. He'd be finished.

                            I keep getting nightmares of "maniac dictator backed into a wall, pushes bio/nuke button."
                            Would it grant him some "wiggle room" if he shit canned his ridiculous "Special Military Operation",
                            and declared all out war on Ukraine?
                            When we blindly adopt a religion, a political system, a literary dogma, we become automatons. We cease to grow. - Anais Nin

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                            • Originally posted by Amled View Post

                              Would it grant him some "wiggle room" if he shit canned his ridiculous "Special Military Operation",
                              and declared all out war on Ukraine?
                              Doubt it.

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                              • A brigade's worth of captured Russian tanks and armored vehicles?
                                https://youtu.be/tODnq81o2fg
                                Last edited by Goatboy; 10 Sep 22,, 22:00.

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