2022-2024 Russo-Ukrainian War

[Monash]

I was worried about Ukraine's chances of winning this conflict, But I see that they are getting the greatest ,most awesome weapon system the world has ever known. Victory is assured

https://thetimeshub.in/lithuania-sen...witzers/39434/

(wonder if they need instructors to teach this new breed of gun bunnies? I've got like 500 hrs of vacation on the books. Just saying)

Mandatory Gunner Porn follows

Ah yes a trip down memory lane. they will be terribly out ranged though. (P.S. Your showing your age (and mine).

I'd like to see them get some of these. I have a certain river in mind.

[astralis]

Hot damn now we're talkin!

From that Twitter thread:

Russia has lost, in two days (if at full strength):
Tanks: 12 ( tank co.)
APCs: 13 (mechanized rifle co. in BTR/MTLB)
Cmd Vic: 1
Arty/AT: 15 (3 mixed arty co.'s)
AD: 2 (AAA & S300)
IFV: 19 (1.5 mech. rifle co.'s)
Log/transpo: 14 (1+ motor rifle co.)

The equivalent strength in a battalion format is roughly 8 companies of infantry, armor, artillery, and supporting arms + command/logistics, so 2+ battalions. Or an understrength brigade.

If any western military lost this kind of equipment (not to mention manpower) in 2 days time we would have riots.

This kind of loss is almost unthinkable for a modern military. Armenia, an underequipped military on the defensive facing a technologically superior/better equipped foe who had amassed greater numbers in tough terrain, didn't suffer these losses in a 48 hour period with essentially no air force or air defense active.

*Russia* a power with the best access to heavy arms, on the defensive, in relatively easy terrain, with overwhelming airpower, & dense air defense, artillery, & armor advantage, couldn't hold off on 2 of 3 active fronts, the might of Ukraine, a power who has been on the defensive for 6 months, with one of the most complex logistics systems on planet earth (Egypt & India must be jealous of how ridiculous Ukraine's system/caliber setup is), undersupplied in armor, artillery, air defense, & with essentially no capacity for aviation beyond the line of contact aside, no capacity for air-air combat, no real strategic rocket capability, no navy for seaborne fires, limited EW, ISR overwhelmingly limited to COTS, & the need to safeguard civil infrastructure... Is putting nearly the entire combat might of the Russia military on the defensive & seizing territory from them whilst whittling down the remaining combat power they have.

It is likely that Ukraine can't sustain this level of ops for a long period, it is exhausting in manpower, stockpiles, & equipment. But for the moment, they are rolling back what was probably the 3rd most powerful army on earth, & doing so while retaining defensive positions along the rest of their positions. This isn't the "all or nothing" attack one might expect such results from, this is months of studious observation, careful marshalling of resources, humiliating trades of kilometers for time, & strategic patience.

It is difficult not to see the past week, and especially the past 48 hours, as transformational. Ukraine will likely have to pause offensive ops before too long, & that's probably a smart move. But they'll end it having recaptured land & established their capacity to combat & contest control of Ukraine from what most of us (including me) saw as a inevitable domination whose only question was "how painful can Ukraine make it".
________

Something that isn't mentioned but I keep coming back to: This isn't happening halfway around the world from Russian soil. This Is Russia's FRONT YARD.

Another thing that isn't mentioned as a benefit: Morale has to be sky-high in Ukraine right now and their international standing is probably soaring.

Russian equipment losses have, if anything, worsened significantly over the last 24 hours given the speed of the Ukrainian offensive. The Kharkiv attack absolutely caught them with their pants down. Lots of captured equipment and visual evidence of Russians caught out in the open and mowed down while trying to retreat.

https://twitter.com/livfaustdiejung/...7K5-yruihOBMgg

[Ironduke]

I was worried about Ukraine's chances of winning this conflict, But I see that they are getting the greatest ,most awesome weapon system the world has ever known. Victory is assured

https://thetimeshub.in/lithuania-sen...witzers/39434/

(wonder if they need instructors to teach this new breed of gun bunnies? I've got like 500 hrs of vacation on the books. Just saying)

Mandatory Gunner Porn follows

I think I seen some of these guys at the Costco Hearing Aid Center when I did some IT work there last spring.

[Ironduke]

Social media is speculating that a captured Russian officer in the Kharkiv Counteroffensive is possibly Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi dressed up in a Lt. Col. uniform. Many are expressing doubts that this is him as well.

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/sta...70074568740864

[Albany Rifles]

I was worried about Ukraine's chances of winning this conflict, But I see that they are getting the greatest ,most awesome weapon system the world has ever known. Victory is assured

https://thetimeshub.in/lithuania-sen...witzers/39434/

(wonder if they need instructors to teach this new breed of gun bunnies? I've got like 500 hrs of vacation on the books. Just saying)

Mandatory Gunner Porn follows

I wonder which VFW posts and fort/camp gate guards had to be surrendered to make this order?

[Albany Rifles]

MG(Ret) Mick Ryan's later strategic analysis on the war.


https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/s...16583100481539

A thread by Mick Ryan, AM


Throughout the Russian invasion of #Ukraine, I have watched and written about Russian #strategy in the war. In this thread, given ongoing Ukrainian offensives, I examine whether Russia has ceded the initiative to Ukraine. 1/25



Since 24 February, Russian #strategy has evolved continuously. Putin’s Plan A, seven months ago, was for a lightening military operation conducted on multiple fronts to shock the Ukrainian military and government into submission and do it before the west could help.



The plucky, courageous Ukrainians called their bluff and defeated the Russians in the north. And in the northeast. And rallied international support for military, humanitarian and economic support.



Therefore, Putin, Lavrov and their military chiefs cobbled together an alternative theory of victory for #Ukraine. They better prioritised their military operations, and eschewed concurrent, multi-front offensives. They also improved air-land integration. Russia focussed its combat power on an eastern offensive, led by artillery. They went on the defensive in the south. This was accompanied by missile strikes – as well ‘energy warfare’ against Europe and drawing out the war to test western patience. (bbc.com/news/world-eur…) For a while, the Russians also drew Ukraine into a battle of attrition in the east. This was not how #Ukraine wanted to fight. It prefers to fight smart and strategically, using what I have described as a ‘strategy of corrosion’. But it all started to change in July. In July, introduction of #HIMARS, Russian losses in the east, and tactical realignments of Ukraine’s defensive scheme, allowed Ukraine to extract itself from the attrition battle in the east. Concurrently, the Ukrainians began attacks in #Kherson.



In August I wrote how I thought the initiative was shifting from the Russians to the Ukrainians. The essence of seizing the initiative is gaining a position of advantage relative to an enemy and denying the enemy their objectives. (abc.net.au/news/2022-08-0…) Despite the courage of Ukraine’s defenders, Russian Army forces had until then retained the ability to conduct offensive thrusts at a time & place of their choosing. But the evolving situation on the ground around this time was changing the dynamic between invader and defender. The Ukrainians were almost at the point where they might be able to dictate where the fighting will occur. This week has seen shifts in Ukrainian momentum. Their campaign for the south has achieved the liberation of several towns, and the taking of ground. Importantly, it may have trapped thousands of Russians west of the Dnipro. (thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u…) And in the past day or so, a Ukrainian combined arms offensive in the northeast has seen advances deep into Russian held territory. While ambiguity abounds, the strategic initiative in this war may have shifted to the Ukrainians in the last few days.



After seven months of vicious and desperate fighting, future historians may see this as an important turning point. It means the Ukrainians not only get to fight how & where they want, but their soldiers fight knowing the Russians are on the back foot. (president.gov.ua/en/news/zagalo…) Once battlefield momentum is generated, success tends to lead to success – if that momentum can be well shaped and continuously exploited. Clearly, much shaping, good leadership and support is still required. But success on the battlefield can be infectious. The Russians, while holding the initiative, have largely been unable to generate tactical (or operational) momentum. Bad leadership & support, poor battlefield integration, lack of reinforcements, early tactical defeats – and a bad overall strategy – have denied them this. For Russia, losing the initiative is another disaster on top of an invasion that that has been catastrophic for the Ukrainian people & corrosive for the Russian military. It is hard to see them regaining the initiative, short of a wholesale mobilisation of their nation. Now that the Russians may only be able to respond to Ukrainians offensives, morale and tactical effectiveness may very quickly decline. Added to the challenge is the attacks by partisans in the south against Russian soldiers, officials and transport infrastructure. The Ukrainians are generating an operational tempo that is dislocating Russian plans and forcing them to even more carefully prioritise airpower, logistics and reinforcements. If they maintain this tempo, Ukraine will ensure Russian decisions are made on old, irrelevant info. Given their current operations, and the political statements from President Zelensky, the seizure of Crimea is definitely in play. While this may or may not be a 2022 objective, the Russians must now plan as if it is one of Ukraine’s objectives before ‘war termination’. Military forces under pressure – especially those that are isolated or surrounded like those west of the Dnipro - can collapse catastrophically in the absence of excellent leadership. And, Russian military leadership in this war has not been a model for others to emulate. The combination of pressure on multiple fronts, limitations on reinforcements, the Ukrainian advantage of interior lines, western support, and clever tactics and leadership means the Russians are now under significant psychological pressure at all levels. With Russian battlefield and operational failures, challenges in manpower, and shortfalls in munitions and other equipment, as well as Putin’s failing economic and energy coercion, the Russians will be challenged to produce a new ‘theory of victory’. (washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/…) And if images of large numbers of retreating and captured Russian troops emerge in the coming days or weeks, it may be a strategic calamity for President Putin. His narratives about the greatness of Russia, and the effectiveness of its wonder weapons, will lay in ruins.



Ukraine probably now has the initiative as well as tactical and operational momentum going into the winter. The war is far from over, but Ukrainian battlefield success will be a boost to Ukrainian morale, and highlights that the west needs to continue support to Ukraine. End.



Thank you to those whose images I used in this thread: @DefenceU @IAPonomarenko @WarMonitor3 @UAWeapons @War_Mapper @Militarylandnet @markito0171 @ChuckPfarrer @thewarzonewire

[astralis]

the speed of advance is a bit shocking: reports of Ukrainian forces fighting -in- Izyum, Lyman, Kupyansk.

for comparison here's what the war map looked like 24 and 48 hours ago.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/statu...26431028097024

[Ironduke]

the speed of advance is a bit shocking: reports of Ukrainian forces fighting -in- Izyum, Lyman, Kupyansk.

for comparison here's what the war map looked like 24 and 48 hours ago.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/statu...26431028097024

Yeah, seems like every few hours there's updates to the Ukrainian advance.

This map from the Visegrad 24 shows Ukranians have advanced to Oskil, east of Izyum. And liveuamap showing this too, and Kapytolivka as well, a suburb directly adjacent to Izyum. OSINTdefender on Twitter claims block-by-block fighting in Izyum itself.

Izyum may about to be completely encircled. I don't think the Russians have made any defensive preparations for an attack coming from the unexpected direction the Ukrainians are arriving from.

Looks like the Ukrainians are trying to take everything west of the Oskil River, from Kupiansk down to Izyum, and establish a bridgehead across the Donets River by recapturing Lyman.

Worth noting, from June 2 to Sept 2, the Russians took approximately 2200 km2 of territory, while the Ukrainians retook 1500km2 elsewhere, for a net loss of 700 km2. And in just the last week, looks like the Ukrainians have retook another 1600 km2 and counting.

[Officer of Engineers]

the speed of advance is a bit shocking:

Not to me one single bit. This is what I was expecting. A numeric inferior force only has one chance at a numeric stronger force. Hit hard. Hit fast. Hit blindside. Hit below the belt. And most of all, keep on Hitting.

[Bigfella]

the speed of advance is a bit shocking: reports of Ukrainian forces fighting -in- Izyum, Lyman, Kupyansk.

for comparison here's what the war map looked like 24 and 48 hours ago.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/statu...26431028097024

If all of that is correct Russian forces are in trouble for now. An attack on Lyman is going ot make reinforcing Izyum very difficult. If Ukranian forces get around the Russians near Kupyansk or Izyum and take the remaining bridges there could be significant numbers of Russians trapped. The question now will be how long Ukraine can sustain this and what, if anything, Russia can do about it. I like this version of the war better.

Also worth pointing out for Wabbers that the offensive near Kherson kicked off on the 8th anniversary of the massacre at Illoviask. Payback is a bitch.

Edit: looks like Ironduke did a better version of my post while I was writing.

[Monash]

No if only a minor attack/breakthrough could be launched by the Ukrainians south of Izium. Nothing grand, just a few clicks north and northeast from the current confrontation line to finish the encirclement off Russian forces in and around that Izyum. Since one hasn't been launched I'm guessing the Ukrainians have been surprised by their own success and are advancing faster and further than initially anticipated. I also suspect the main roads out of Izium are currently a 'target rich' environment from the perspective of Ukrainian gunners and drone operators.

[astralis]

Not to me one single bit. This is what I was expecting. A numeric inferior force only has one chance at a numeric stronger force. Hit hard. Hit fast. Hit blindside. Hit below the belt. And most of all, keep on Hitting.

My surprise is how the Russkis folded up like a cheap suit. From what I gather from open source, initial attack featured armor but not much more than company-sized.

then when the door got kicked in, the Ukrainians flooded the area with everything from SOF, mechanized infantry, humvees, and technicals (wonder if those VAMPIRE rocket techicals featured).

looks like a combination of hugging tactics and rapid pursuit, with Russian artillery caught out of position and overrun.

[astralis]

Also worth pointing out for Wabbers that the offensive near Kherson kicked off on the 8th anniversary of the massacre at Illoviask. Payback is a bitch.

thanks for the reminder. If I recall, Minnie was buried in Zaporizhia oblast, large parts of which still are under the boots of the invaders.

if she lies under occupation, I surely hope by this time next year she no longer need worry about the insult.

[Bigfella]

thanks for the reminder. If I recall, Minnie was buried in Zaporizhia oblast, large parts of which still are under the boots of the invaders.

if she lies under occupation, I surely hope by this time next year she no longer need worry about the insult.

I wouldn't want to be a Russian soldier anywhere near Minnie's grave. That is just asking for trouble. She will exact her revenge.

[Officer of Engineers]

My surprise is how the Russkis folded up like a cheap suit.

That's an OPOBJ. Disorient the enemy that retreat is the only option to buy time to reorient himself.