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  • Ukrainian forces conducted a counterattack in Kharkiv Oblast near Balakliya that likely drove Russian forces back to the left bank (north side) of the Severskyi Donets and Serednya Balakliika rivers on September 6.

    Ukrainian forces likely captured Verbivka (less than 3 km northwest of Balakliya) on September 6.

    Geolocated footage posted on September 6 shows Ukrainian infantry in eastern Verbivka (less than 3 km from Balakliya).

    Multiple Russian sources acknowledged Ukrainian gains in Verbivka and reported that Russian forces demolished unspecified bridges in Balakliya‘s eastern environs to prevent further Ukrainian advances.

    Images posted on September 6 also show a destroyed Russian bridge over the Serednya Balakliika River—a geographic feature behind which the Russian front line in this sector likely lies.

    Social media users reported that Russian forces withdrew from checkpoints six kilometers west of Balaklia on September 6.

    Russian forces likely no longer maintain their previous positions in Bairak and Nova Husarivka (just south of Balakliya on the right bank of the Seversky Donets River). Russian forces likely abandoned Bayrak and Nova Husarivka in late August. Images posted on August 30 show that Russian forces blew the bridge over the Seversky Donetsk River near Bayrak on an unspecified date.

    Bridge demolition activity indicates a planned Russian withdrawal. Ukraine’s General Staff reported on September 6 that Russian forces conducted air strikes against Bayrak, indicating that Ukrainian forces may have advanced in the area.

    Russia’s deployment of forces from Kharkiv and eastern Ukraine to Ukraine’s south is likely enabling Ukrainian counterattacks of opportunity. The September 6 Ukrainian counterattack in Kharkiv was likely an opportunistic effort enabled by the redeployment of Russian forces away from the area to reinforce Russian positions against the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast.

    Obituary data on Russian servicemen indicates that Russia deployed elements of the 147th Artillery Regiment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army to Kherson Oblast no earlier than late August.

    This is the first time ISW has observed elements of Russia’s elite 1st Guards Tank Army operating in southern Ukraine.

    Elements of the 147th previously fought in Bucha in Kyiv in March and elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army were active primarily along the Kharkiv Axis after the Russian withdrawal from Kyiv.
    “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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    • Wow. Russian troops hit by artillery while crossing a pontoon on the Dnipro.

      https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com..._to_cross_the/
      "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

      Comment


      • Is it bodycam footage? Kind of odd the angle seems to be down with nothing interesting to film.

        Chimo

        Comment


        • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post
          Ukrainian forces conducted a counterattack in Kharkiv Oblast near Balakliya that likely drove Russian forces back to the left bank (north side) of the Severskyi Donets and Serednya Balakliika rivers on September 6.
          ...

          Russia’s deployment of forces from Kharkiv and eastern Ukraine to Ukraine’s south is likely enabling Ukrainian counterattacks of opportunity. ...
          I don't think it was a counterattack of oppertunity. I think this was planned. I'm almost certain of it. The attack towards Kherson has been stalled and in effect in danger of being swallowed into Russian KZs. Almost textbook channeling of Ukrainian momentum.

          So, where is the relief follow on forces to prevent such an occurance? Why is there such a big force available making this push towards Kharkov instead of being in the south to exploit a breakthrough? Unless this is exactly what the Ukrainians wanted.
          Chimo

          Comment


          • a lot of Russian milbloggers seem to be coming to the conclusion that the Ukrainians talked up Kherson to get the Russians to flow significant troops and resources into a difficult logistics situation while saving the real firepower for Kharkiv/Izyum.

            The attack towards Kherson has been stalled and in effect in danger of being swallowed into Russian KZs. Almost textbook channeling of Ukrainian momentum.

            So, where is the relief follow on forces to prevent such an occurance?
            i find it interesting that we haven't seen much evidence of armored formations being committed in Kherson. as far as I can tell the Kherson attack isn't stalling because it was never prosecuted at high speed in the first place. in Kherson, the Russians are retreating from superior Ukrainian firepower, not Ukrainian maneuver. there's some evidence it's the other way around in Kharkiv, although it is too early/too little info to tell.
            Last edited by astralis; 08 Sep 22,, 00:44.
            There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Albany Rifles View Post

              Pete, when I was a lieutenant in 1982 we fired .50 caliber ammo which was manufactured in 1944. Not sure what the process is for the Russians but in western nations we have Quality Assurance Specialist (Ammunition Surveillance) (QASAS) inspectors who examine munitions and allowing it to be fired. I am sure the Russians have something similar. But as has been pointed the quality of NORK ammo is an unknown.If regular artillery munitions it should be fairly reliable...but I would question the reliability of the propellants and fuses. Small arms should be fine.

              Its anecdotal but I do recall during the Gulf War and Iraq 03 many of the NORK manufactured SCUDs broke up in flight or failed to launch. Also lots of issues raised with quality of NORK munitions used in both.
              'It should be fairly reliable'. Are we talking in terms of manufacture or storage? Because given the state of Russian arms depots I cringe at the thought of what North Korean ones are like after decades of neglect and it's the latter that would worry me if I was a Russian munitions handler. I can only assume the Russians are astute enough to insist on receiving recent more recently produced production runs over circa 1980's stuff.
              Last edited by Monash; 08 Sep 22,, 15:26.
              If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

              Comment


              • Reports coming in of rapid Ukrainian advances around Kharkiv with use of armor and SOF. Russian retreat around Balakiya has led to significant RU losses and captured equipment.

                https://twitter.com/livfaustdiejung/...LjDhwJDv87aYWA
                There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "My ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."- Isaac Asimov

                Comment


                • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                  Reports coming in of rapid Ukrainian advances around Kharkiv with use of armor and SOF. Russian retreat around Balakiya has led to significant RU losses and captured equipment.

                  https://twitter.com/livfaustdiejung/...LjDhwJDv87aYWA
                  Hot damn now we're talkin!

                  From that Twitter thread:

                  Russia has lost, in two days (if at full strength):
                  Tanks: 12 ( tank co.)
                  APCs: 13 (mechanized rifle co. in BTR/MTLB)
                  Cmd Vic: 1
                  Arty/AT: 15 (3 mixed arty co.'s)
                  AD: 2 (AAA & S300)
                  IFV: 19 (1.5 mech. rifle co.'s)
                  Log/transpo: 14 (1+ motor rifle co.)

                  The equivalent strength in a battalion format is roughly 8 companies of infantry, armor, artillery, and supporting arms + command/logistics, so 2+ battalions. Or an understrength brigade.

                  If any western military lost this kind of equipment (not to mention manpower) in 2 days time we would have riots.

                  This kind of loss is almost unthinkable for a modern military. Armenia, an underequipped military on the defensive facing a technologically superior/better equipped foe who had amassed greater numbers in tough terrain, didn't suffer these losses in a 48 hour period with essentially no air force or air defense active.

                  *Russia* a power with the best access to heavy arms, on the defensive, in relatively easy terrain, with overwhelming airpower, & dense air defense, artillery, & armor advantage, couldn't hold off on 2 of 3 active fronts, the might of Ukraine, a power who has been on the defensive for 6 months, with one of the most complex logistics systems on planet earth (Egypt & India must be jealous of how ridiculous Ukraine's system/caliber setup is), undersupplied in armor, artillery, air defense, & with essentially no capacity for aviation beyond the line of contact aside, no capacity for air-air combat, no real strategic rocket capability, no navy for seaborne fires, limited EW, ISR overwhelmingly limited to COTS, & the need to safeguard civil infrastructure... Is putting nearly the entire combat might of the Russia military on the defensive & seizing territory from them whilst whittling down the remaining combat power they have.

                  It is likely that Ukraine can't sustain this level of ops for a long period, it is exhausting in manpower, stockpiles, & equipment. But for the moment, they are rolling back what was probably the 3rd most powerful army on earth, & doing so while retaining defensive positions along the rest of their positions. This isn't the "all or nothing" attack one might expect such results from, this is months of studious observation, careful marshalling of resources, humiliating trades of kilometers for time, & strategic patience.

                  It is difficult not to see the past week, and especially the past 48 hours, as transformational. Ukraine will likely have to pause offensive ops before too long, & that's probably a smart move. But they'll end it having recaptured land & established their capacity to combat & contest control of Ukraine from what most of us (including me) saw as a inevitable domination whose only question was "how painful can Ukraine make it".
                  ________

                  Something that isn't mentioned but I keep coming back to: This isn't happening halfway around the world from Russian soil. This Is Russia's FRONT YARD.

                  Another thing that isn't mentioned as a benefit: Morale has to be sky-high in Ukraine right now and their international standing is probably soaring.
                  “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

                  Comment


                  • Now if they can, over time just push forward around Kherson one small advance at a time until they get the south bank of the river around the city within artillery range. After that no need to advance further until Russia forces start trying to withdraw (assuming Putin will let them).
                    If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by astralis View Post
                      a lot of Russian milbloggers seem to be coming to the conclusion that the Ukrainians talked up Kherson to get the Russians to flow significant troops and resources into a difficult logistics situation while saving the real firepower for Kharkiv/Izyum.
                      It's more than talk. It was a deliberate distraction operation up and including actions to draw even more forces away from Kharkov.

                      Originally posted by astralis View Post
                      i find it interesting that we haven't seen much evidence of armored formations being committed in Kherson. as far as I can tell the Kherson attack isn't stalling because it was never prosecuted at high speed in the first place.
                      I never did wrap my head around that. The Ukrainians were giving time for the Russians to shape their defence and shaping their defence was exactly what they were doing. The Russians were setting up Kilo Zulus along the axis of Ukrainian advance. The Ukrainians could have advance much faster and they didn't. Something was not sitting right with me.

                      Originally posted by astralis View Post
                      in Kherson, the Russians are retreating from superior Ukrainian firepower, not Ukrainian maneuver. there's some evidence it's the other way around in Kharkiv, although it is too early/too little info to tell.
                      Which is precisely what makes me think this was planned. You need to know where and when to maneuver. Kherson was the setup for the Kharkov sucker punch.

                      Originally posted by Monash View Post
                      Now if they can, over time just push forward around Kherson one small advance at a time until they get the south bank of the river around the city within artillery range. After that no need to advance further until Russia forces start trying to withdraw (assuming Putin will let them).
                      Hell No. The last thing I want is a battle of attrition with the Russians.
                      Chimo

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                        Hell No. The last thing I want is a battle of attrition with the Russians.
                        Most sane people wouldn't. The problem is though that that may be the only deal on offer. It's a long front line and up to this point of time nothing I've read tells me Ukraine has the critical mass in armor, artillery and manpower etc to launch a large scale, conventional mechanized assault, breakthrough and exploitation offensive. It would be nice if they did but they don't! And all other things being equal it doesn't seem likely they will for the foreseeable future. Which means they're either stuck on the defensive (politically and militarily unsustainable in the long term) or they can launch limited offensives where they can, consolidate their new holdings and then take another bite out of the Russian lines somewhere else. Which seems to be what they are doing at the moment.

                        As far as the southern push goes? Pushing the Russians back far enough towards the Dnieper to threaten Russian LOC/supply lines creates an enormous headache for Russia without actually requiring the Ukrainians to fight their way into the city. But as I noted above I doubt they have the critical mass to do this in one assault. (Correction; maybe they do but if so they can't afford the losses unless the battle concerned is going to be a decisive one. Which Kherson isn't, important yes, decisive no.) That being the case a series of less risky stop/start advances will eventually achieve the same result i.e. isolate Kherson.

                        In my lay opinion? Forcing the Russians to play a (albeit slow paced) game of whack-a-mole against multiple small offensives at widely disparate points along the conflict line while wearing out their mobile reserves in the process is a dam sight better than just a static defence posture.
                        Last edited by Monash; 09 Sep 22,, 06:31.
                        If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Monash View Post
                          In my lay opinion? Forcing the Russians play a (slow paced) game of whack-a-mole against multiple small offensives at disparate parts of the conflict line while wearing out their mobile reserves in the process is a dam sight better than a static defence.
                          Except winter is coming and the Russians will have the 3AC readied by the spring.
                          Chimo

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                          • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                            Except winter is coming and the Russians will have the 3AC readied by the spring.
                            Then its a 'no win' situation for Ukraine. They don't have the muscle to do the job quickly and don't have the time to wait. Assuming of course the 3AC is everything it's cracked up to be, which is difficult to get hard data on.
                            If you are emotionally invested in 'believing' something is true you have lost the ability to tell if it is true.

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                            • I'm expecting nothing more than cannon fodder. "Sit your ass here. Shoot everything in front of you. And don't even think about retreating. There's a machine gun behind you." This can work if you have good thinkers who can figure out where to sit those men but those officers are getting their asses shot off right now.

                              Be that as it may, even bullet soakers can do their job by sucking up limited Ukrainian ammunition.
                              Chimo

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                                Is it bodycam footage? Kind of odd the angle seems to be down with nothing interesting to film.
                                It was a ferry that got hit, not a pontoon. Looks like cell phone footage. Basically there's two clips, one of the Russian soldier saying the area had been hit before, he was praying it wouldn't get hit while they were crossing, before the ferry got hit some seconds later. Then blyat, the aftermath with the wounded having been taken out of vehicles and being treated.

                                Originally posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
                                I would have liked to see that fireball filmed much closer ... as in up close and personal closer.
                                This was that. Probably artillery shell rather than HIMARS though.

                                Attached Files
                                "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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