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  • Originally posted by Monash View Post

    Well on the plus side that would seem to indicate that Russia is apparently unable to meet the need for even the most basic of conventional munitions from domestic sources. Which is a pretty telling indictment of the state of their arms industry and their potential to threaten NATO in a conventional war. Needs to be confirmed of course but previously I would have though basic munitions would NOT be an issue. Leaves me wondering about other munitions e.g. mortar rounds, AA shells and even rifle rounds etc.
    Looks like it's confirmed

    https://therecount.com/watch/defense...ion/2645885088
    “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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    • So Russian arms production can't supply enough shells for its artillery then, if they're reduced to begging the Norks.
      "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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      • "Millions of shells". If true that sounds like if Russia had an impending 152mm shell shortage, it's over for awhile. "Millions" with an "s" is gigantic.

        Any chance China will backfill whatever NK sends to Russia?
        Last edited by Goatboy; 07 Sep 22,, 07:45.

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        • This sounds like next years' campaign. We know 3rd Army Corps received her Colours last month. And they're being armed the with latest and greatest Russia got (at least according Ukrainian HUMINT). I don't doubt some November Kilo stocks will reach the front this year but it would fit more that a fresh army with fresh guns and ammo would be thrown into the Ukrainian meatgrinder.
          Chimo

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          • Originally posted by Goatboy View Post
            Any chance China will backfill whatever NK sends to Russia?
            The November Kilos doesn't need backfilling just yet. These would be excess stock that they can spare without emptying their depots.

            Chimo

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            • What a burn!




              Attached Files
              Chimo

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              • What sort of condition are these shells likely to be in?
                sigpic

                Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

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                • Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
                  What sort of condition are these shells likely to be in?
                  Standard Soviet quality. 20-33% duds (factored into their doctrines). Do note that the Russians would do at least a visual inspection before accepting delivery.
                  Chimo

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                  • I'm curious if the Ukrainians are making a play for Lyman.

                    Attached Files
                    "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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                    • Originally posted by TopHatter View Post

                      Supposedly going to be "great news" tonight about that counter-offensive
                      Reportedly Balakliya is surrounded by the Ukranians, with a substantial number of Russian troops cut off.




                      Attached Files
                      "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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                      • Pontoon bridge destroyed at Dariivka on the Inhulets.
                        Attached Files
                        "Every man has his weakness. Mine was always just cigarettes."

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                        • 21st century version of "honey trap". Talk about multi-layer war...

                          Ukrainian hackers created fake profiles of attractive women to trick Russian soldiers into sharing their location, report says. Days later, the base was blown up

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                          • Originally posted by Bigfella View Post
                            What sort of condition are these shells likely to be in?
                            Pete, when I was a lieutenant in 1982 we fired .50 caliber ammo which was manufactured in 1944. Not sure what the process is for the Russians but in western nations we have Quality Assurance Specialist (Ammunition Surveillance) (QASAS) inspectors who examine munitions and allowing it to be fired. I am sure the Russians have something similar. But as has been pointed the quality of NORK ammo is an unknown. If regular artillery munitions it should be fairly reliable...but I would question the reliability of the propellants and fuses. Small arms should be fine.

                            Its anecdotal but I do recall during the Gulf War and Iraq 03 many of the NORK manufactured SCUDs broke up in flight or failed to launch. Also lots of issues raised with quality of NORK munitions used in both.
                            Last edited by Albany Rifles; 07 Sep 22,, 14:29.
                            “Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it.”
                            Mark Twain

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                            • Can't they be making new ammo to sell to Russia? How diferent standard HE 122 and 152mm have become? Or basic unguided rockets for post-WWII "stalin organs"?

                              As for paying, I'd wager Russia might be paying (at least partly) with food. All the grain they stole would be well received by NK.

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                              • Twitter thread about seeming dearth of Russian artillery ammunition.

                                So, I got some things wrong in June and figured it is worth outlining why and how it changes analysis for the conflict. In short, the Russians have less ammunition than colleagues and I thought. Have to be wary jumping to opposite conclusion however. reuters.com/world/russia-i… 1/15

                                In June we were looking at the weaknesses in the Russian military (what could be targeted). Ammo was an obvious tactical target as it required fewer strikes than the guns. We outlined this publicly here: static.rusi.org/special-report…, 2/15

                                The question arose whether this would suppress Russian guns or cause long term shortages. Assessing Russian ammo was difficult. The question was not just about old Soviet stocks but also about their production since 1991, storage, wastage, and consumption. 3/15

                                We spoke to a number of people who used to work in the Soviet armaments industry to get a sense of production capacity at ammunition factories. The capacity of these factories was very, very high. 4/15

                                We also spoke to people closely watching Russian defence industry from a number of countries including Finland, the Baltic States and Ukraine who confirmed that many of these factories had continued to produce munitions, though not at full capacity. 5/15

                                If you assumed a linear consumption rate from June then the numbers looked like Russia having a couple of years of stocks. If you assumed that June was a high point and that firing would fluctuate across the year then the figures could have seen Russia have 6 years of stock 6/15

                                The problem with my methodology was that we looked at shell manufacturing and not charge or explosives manufacturing. If you look at these areas then it becomes clear that production was not as high. 7/15

                                Why then were the factories manufacturing the shells still churning stuff out? I would suggest that the delta between the amount of steel etc needed to make shell casings and the amount of explosive available to make complete shells is indicative of the level of corruption. 8/15

                                What does this mean in terms of Russian sustainment? Here it is important not to jump from one extreme (the Russians have infinite ammo) to the other (the Russians have no ammo). They still have those factories and it seems they have stepped up production. 9/15

                                For months the Russians have been going around the world buying up artillery stocks from other countries. Partly for themselves. Partly, to prevent Ukraine getting them. North Korea is not a new or unique supplier. 10/15

                                Another point is that the Russians do not want to drop below certain levels of stock in case they face other threats. Just as the US has to balance the threat from China in what it gives to Ukraine, the Russians will want to increase stocks before they run out. 11/15

                                Furthermore stepping up manufacturing takes time. This is why colleagues and I have been raising alarm about Western stocks long before the cupboard is bear, because unless the decisions to sort out supply happens now then it will be a problem rusi.org/explore-our-re… 12/15

                                The destruction of Russian equipment and wearing out of barrels etc is causing them to use a diverse array of older guns. The charges needed for these guns are different and so there are bottlenecks in supply other than ammunition that may make shopping easier than making. 13/15

                                So how does this change the outlook. It suggests that the Russians can't resource the weight of fire they managed in June long term. It also increases the effect of strikes on their logistics. Finally, it makes the ongoing accidents at Russian industrial sites problematic. 14/15

                                However, for unguided ammunition natures of 152mm, 122mm shells and 122mm rockets domestic production is likely able to step up to ensure long term supply. If the Russians really lean into economic mobilisation that could pick up drastically next year. 15/15.
                                “He was the most prodigious personification of all human inferiorities. He was an utterly incapable, unadapted, irresponsible, psychopathic personality, full of empty, infantile fantasies, but cursed with the keen intuition of a rat or a guttersnipe. He represented the shadow, the inferior part of everybody’s personality, in an overwhelming degree, and this was another reason why they fell for him.”

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